U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE October 25, 2000 October 2000, ERS-FAU-46 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # SUB-FAT-4030, $52/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary--For the third straight month, the $10.8 billion cumulative (October-August) U.S. agricultural trade surplus is ahead of last fiscal year. The 11-percent jump in exports to $4.3 billion in August from July 2000 pushed the year-to-date export value to $46.9 billion, up 3.8 percent from 1999. The trade surplus in August is $134 million higher than in 1999. Augusts import value of $3.2 billion is below the average monthly import value for fiscal 2000. Nevertheless, cumulative imports of $36 billion are up 4.5 percent from 1999. Exports--Through August 2000, bulk commodity exports--wheat, coarse grains, rice, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco--are approximately equal to the first 11 months of fiscal 1999, boosted by the 15-percent export increase from July to August. Year-to-date exports of soybeans and cotton have risen, but the value of shipments of wheat, corn, rice, and tobacco still lags behind 1999. Wheat exports through August are more than $300 million smaller than the same period of last fiscal year despite the $50-million rise in U.S. exports from July. Volume shipped to date is also below 1999. Wheat prices in 2000 remain under 1999s low average price. However, world consumption of wheat exceeds total production, and stocks of U.S. competitors are a bit lower than in 1999, while U.S. stocks remain high. Import demand from Egypt, Mexico, the Philippines, and Taiwan is stronger this year. Because recent corn prices are even lower than in 1999, U.S. corn exports of $4.2 billion through August still lag 1999 by $422 million. Also, volume shipped to date is down 2.8 million tons from 1999, a 6-percent decline. World corn production remains high relative to consumption, and stocks are also large, particularly in the United States and China. Increased competition for world export markets has largely been from China and Argentina. U.S. volume shipped to date is strong to the Middle East, Taiwan, North Africa, and Colombia. Cumulative soybean exports are ahead of 1999 in value and volume, by 10 and 17 percent. Sales of $4.8 billion through August are $418 million higher than last year. Volume shipped is nearly 25 million tons thus far this year. The largest export gains have been to markets in China and the European Union. Soybean prices have slipped since last summer and are back to 1999s low average price because of higher world oilseed supply. Cotton sales to foreign markets boast the biggest value gain to date among major bulk products--$445 million. Volume shipped to date of 1.4 million tons is a half-million tons more than in 1999. Cotton prices are up 7 percent from last years low prices as a result of higher consumption. Also, stocks in China are lower, drawn down by high domestic consumption. October-August U.S. export quantity is strongest to Latin America, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. Despite the dollars high exchange rate, foreign demand for U.S. high-value products (HVP) remains strong. Cumulative exports are $1.8 billion larger than in 1999. Because of the decline in export value for bulk commodities in fiscal 2000, the U.S. overall export gain to date is entirely attributed to HVP sales. Exports in August are $250 million more than the same month last year. The biggest export earners to date are red meat (up $1 billion), hides (up $324 million), followed by feeds, poultry, and vegetables at around $200 million each. Imports--U.S. agricultural imports to date are $1.6 billion ahead of last fiscal year, almost all from the $1.6 billion rise in competitive imports. Imports of red meat, nuts, vegetables, wine, and malt beverages show the largest gains. An additional nearly $600 million of red meat has been imported through August. And gains of over $100 million each for nuts and vegetables, as well as more than $400 million for beverages, have been registered to date. These increases are due largely to vigorous U.S. economic activity and generally low world commodity prices. [Andy Jerardo, 202-694-5323] The overall export share of U.S. agricultural production was 15 percent in 1999, down from its peak of 21 percent in 1995. The decline is attributed in part to lower U.S. export volume of major bulk commodities. World supplies of grains, oilseeds, and cotton expanded in recent years relative to demand, resulting in lower export prices. In addition, the strength of the U.S. dollar since 1996 has reduced the buying power of foreign consumers. Nevertheless, over the past two decades, the export share of U.S. high-value products--red meats, poultry, fruits, nuts, and vegetables--have continued to increase. (See tables 5, 6, and 7.) Next update: November 29, 2000 END_OF_FILE