U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE February 28, 2001 February 2001, ERS-FAU-50 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the USDA order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # SUB-FAT-4030, $62/year. ERS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary--The $51.6 billion of U.S. agricultural exports in calendar year 2000 is $3.1 billion more than in 1999, a 6.4-percent jump. This increase broke the 3-year string of annual declines starting in 1997. U.S. agricultural imports in 2000, on the other hand, were $39 billion, up nearly $1.3-billion from 1999. As a result, the corresponding trade surplus climbed to $12.6 billion from $10.8 billion in 1999. However, this surplus is less than half of 1996s record $26.9 billion. Exports--Among the bulk commodities, soybeans and cotton accounted for all the gain, rising $1.6 billion. Other bulk commodities registered offsetting sales declines in 2000, partly due to increased foreign competition and continued low prices. The largest contributor to U.S. agricultural export earnings in calendar 2000 was cotton--up $915 million. This gain alone more than offset the combined shipment declines in wheat, coarse grains, rice, and tobacco compared with 1999. One reason for cottons higher foreign sales is a 10-percent average increase in cotton prices from 1999. Volume shipped rose by 784,000 tons, largely to Mexico, Turkey, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. Exports of soybeans were up $726 million from 1999 as volume shipped and average prices both increased. Export volume rose 3.8 million tons and export prices gained $11 per ton on average in 2000. In 2000, although Brazil and Argentina significantly increased soybean exports from the 1999/2000 crops, world demand also jumped sharply. By far, the largest U.S. market for soybeans in 2000 was China. China has begun to focus on domestic soybean processing rather than importing soybean meal and oil. As a result, Chinas imports of U.S. soybean meal and oil fell from 1999. Other large markets for U.S. soybeans were Mexico and South Korea. Wheat exports of $3.4 billion in 2000 fell by almost $200 million from 1999. Volume shipped also fell by close to 700,000 tons. These declines are attributed to continued weak prices for wheat in 2000. Although wheat prices have increased somewhat since September 2000, the average for 2000 is still near 1999s low value. Another important factor was increased export competition from large 1999/00 crops in Australia, Argentina, and Canada, which were marketed in 2000. Among major markets, significant volume gains were posted to the Philippines, Indonesia, Egypt, and Venezuela. Among bulk exports, corn registered the biggest sales loss in calendar 2000--$441 million from 1999, corresponding to a 4-million- ton drop. Although world corn production was down and consumption is expected to be up slightly in 2000, corn prices remained depressed, even lower on average than in 1999. Nevertheless, volume shipped posted gains to Canada, Israel, Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Colombia, and Central America. About $2.2 billion, or two-thirds, of the $3.1-billion U.S. total export gain in 2000 was earned from high-value products (HVP). The principal HVP exports were red meats at $5.4 billion followed by vegetables and preparations at $4.5 billion. The largest gainers from 1999 were red meats, followed by hides and skins, feeds and fodders, and fruits and preparations. Mexico, South Korea, and Japan were the biggest consumers of U.S. red meats in 2000. In addition to these three countries, China and Taiwan imported the most hides and skins. Imports--U.S. agricultural imports continued to climb as the strong dollar offset the effect of a slower U.S. economy in the second half of 2000. The moderate $1.3-billion rise from 1999 was largely from imported red meats (up $542 million), live animals (up $285 million), malt beverages (up $287 million) and vegetables (up $153 million). The major sources for these imports are Canada, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile, and Thailand. Because of continued low prices, imports of coffee, cocoa, and bananas all slipped from 1999 levels. As a result, imports from South America, notably Brazil, were down sharply. [Andy Jerardo, 202-694-5323; ajerardo@ers.usda.gov] While U.S. bulk commodity exports of $17.7 billion in calendar 2000 are lower than in 1990 or 1995, exports of HVPs are now $34 billion, compared with $20 and $31 billion in 1990 and 1995. Japan is still the largest U.S. market for bulk commodities, but Canada has overtaken Japan as the prime destination for HVP. Also, Mexico now imports more U.S. bulk products than the European Union, and imported almost as much HVP as the EU in 2000. South Korea, Taiwan, and China continue to be among the top 10 markets for both product groups (see table 5). Next update: March 26, 2001 END_OF_FILE