U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE                         August 27, 2001
August 2001, ERS-FAU-56
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic 
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 
20036-5831.
 
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Summary The first nine months of fiscal year 2001 generated $40.7 billion in 
U.S. agricultural exports, almost $2 billion more than in the same period of 
fiscal 2000.  Agricultural imports to date, $29.6 billion, on the other hand, 
are $240 million behind last years value.  Thus, the cumulative U.S. farm 
trade surplus is $11.1 billion, which is $2.2 billion more than in 2000.  
The monthly trade surpluses since October 2000 have all exceeded those of 
corresponding months in the previous year.  
 
Exports In value and volume, bulk commodity exports are down from last year 
due to much smaller sales of corn and rice.  Nevertheless, the export 
shortfall for bulk commodities thus far this year is only $32 million compared 
with 2000.

Although wheat shipments to date are down 903,000 tons from last year, a 4.6-
percent decline, value is down only $8.7 million.  Wheat prices this fiscal 
year are on average 21 percent higher than in 2000 due to smaller world wheat 
production.  Thus far in 2001, U.S. wheat shipments of 18.7 million tons have 
generated $2.4 billion in sales.  Countries that purchased less U.S. wheat 
this year are the European Union (EU), Russia, Egypt, and Pakistan.

Although foreign production of corn is estimated down in 2000/01, production 
in the United States is up, and corn prices remain depressed.  Shipments of 
U.S. corn plunged 1.9 million tons from last year, a 5-percent decline, and 
value is down by $255 million, or 7 percent.  Corn sales of $3.2 billion to 
date were generated from 33.7 million tons shipped.  U.S. corn sales to 
Japan, the Middle East, Russia, and Taiwan all dipped from 2000.  
Nevertheless, Canada has purchased $108 million more U.S. corn thus far 
because of a poor corn crop in the fall of 2000.

Soybean exports are up sharply for the year-to-date in value and quantity.  
Soybean sales of $4.5 billion are up $291 million from 2000, and cumulative 
shipments of 23.6 million tons are 2 million more than last year. Soybean
prices are even lower than at the same period last year, reflecting higher 
world 2000/01 production.  Demand from China and Mexico for U.S. soybeans 
more than offset sales declines to the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.

U.S. exports of cotton are up by a cumulative $76 million, although 
shipments are down by 49,000 tons.  Sales of $1.5 billion to date were 
earned from 1.2 million tons shipped.  Cotton prices have fallen sharply 
from March to June 2001 due to higher U.S. production and lower domestic 
mill use.  Sales increases to Mexico, India, Pakistan, and South Korea more 
than offset declines to Brazil, Turkey, Japan, and Taiwan.  Although 
estimated world cotton production is up slightly, world import demand has 
fallen, contributing to lower prices.

With bulk commodity exports falling short thus far of sales in 2000, sales 
of high-value products (HVP) are contributing to much of the U.S. trade 
surplus.  HVP exports of almost $27 billion to date gained $2 billion from 
2000.  Among the products whose cumulative sales increased significantly 
are hides and skins (up $400 million), feeds and fodders (up $280 million), 
and sugar and tropical products (up $228 million).

Imports?The $240-million decline in U.S. agricultural imports in the 
year-to-date is largely due to declining coffee prices.  Although import 
volume of coffee is down 16 percent, import value is down 41 percent, or 
almost $1 billion.  Other tropical product import values are down as well?
cocoa, rubber, and cashew nuts. These declines were countered to some extent
by increased U.S. demand for vegetables, live farm animals, red meat, and 
malt beverages.  The markets that supplied most of these imports are Canada, 
Mexico, and Australia. [Alberto Jerardo, 202-694-5323, ajerardo@ers.usda.gov]

U.S. agricultural exports in calendar 2000 generated employment, income, and 
purchasing power in both the farm and nonfarm sectors.  Each farm export 
dollar earned stimulated another $1.47 in business activity.  The $51.6 
billion of U.S. farm exports in 2000 generated 740,000 full-time civilian 
jobs, including 444,000 jobs in the nonfarm sector.  Farmers purchases of 
fuel, fertilizer, and other inputs for export production spurred economic 
activity in the manufacturing, trade, and transportation sectors.

Production from more than a third of U.S. cropland moved into export 
channels in 2000.  Exports generated $127.3 billion in business activity?
$51.6 billion from exports and $75.7 billion from supporting activities. 
[William Edmondson, 202-694-5374]

Next update:  September 25, 2001                            

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