FEED YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY April 3, 1998 April 1998, FDS-1998 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of FEED YEARBOOK will be available within a week following this summary release. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feed Grain Production Down 1 Percent in 1997/98 U.S. feed grain production in 1997/98 totaled 265 million metric tons, down 1 percent from 1996/97. However, total supply is expected to be up 4 percent because of larger carryin stocks. Total use of the four feed grains in 1997/98 is expected to be up 3 percent from last year. Increased numbers of livestock and poultry and increased milk production are expected to boost feed and residual use of corn and the other feed grains. Food and industrial use of corn in 1997/98 is likely to be up sharply from 1996/97. However, large exportable corn supplies in other Nations and weaker Asian demand have cut expected U.S. corn exports. The reduced export prospects and increased corn supplies have led to weaker corn prices. In 1997, corn production was up about 1 percent from the 1996 crop because of larger harvested area. Yields were virtually unchanged from 1996. On March 1, 1998, producers reported they intend to plant 1 percent more acres to corn than in 1997. Grain sorghum production in 1997 was down 19 percent from 1996. The reduction was because of a decline in planted acreage as yields were up 2 bushels per acre in 1997. Prospective plantings for 1998 were reported down 11 percent from 1997, suggesting further production declines. Barley production in 1997 was down 6 percent from 1996, mainly due to lower acreage. Even with declines in production, the all-barley price received by farmers in 1997/98 has been weaker than in 1996/97. Despite the strongest exports in 5 years, feed barley prices have been weak. However, malting barley prices have been relatively strong because of planting and growing problems in the major malting barley production areas. Oats production in 1997 was up 13 percent from 1996's record low crop. Still, the 1997 crop was the third lowest on record since 1866. Yield was the third highest on record. Supplies of oats in 1997/98 are expected to be up 11 percent from 1996/97, mainly because of a 13-percent increase in imports. Global coarse grain production in 1997/98 will be down from the record high of 1996/97, but still the second highest ever. China's drought-reduced corn crop accounts for the largest proportion of the decrease in global production. Outside of China, foreign production is increasing, while coarse grain consumption is forecast mostly unchanged. World coarse grain trade is forecast down, led by declines in barley. World corn trade will not drop as much. A multitude of special articles explore various grain-related issues. One article discusses the impact of new technology on the corn sector with a 1998 update and prospects for the future. A second article re-evaluates use of the soybeans-to-corn price ratio as an indicator of acreage changes in light of increased planting flexibility. The third discusses the complexities in estimating feed use when survey data are unavailable. The fourth article examines Southeast Asia's feed imports and the effect of the region's financial crisis. The final article presents a model that analyzes market factors and government programs affecting U.S. corn prices. For more information, contact Pete Riley 202-694-5308. Printed copies of the Feed Yearbook Situation and Outlook Yearbook will be available in a few weeks. The text of the report will also be available electronically, for details call 202-694-5050. END_OF_FILE