FEED YEARBOOK--Summary April 24, 2000 April 2000 FDS-2000 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This Summary is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of FEED YEARBOOK will be available electronically in about 2 weeks following this summary release. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feed Grain Use Near Record Highs, Prices Remain Weak Total feed grain use is projected at 267.7 million tons in 1999/2000, up 3 percent from the previous year, and second only to the 268.5 million used in 1994/95. Feed grain exports are forecast down 2 percent from 1998/99, led by a drop in corn exports. Domestic use is forecast to rise 4 percent from a year earlier to a record 213 million tons. Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat is expected to be up from last year. Increased milk, beef, poultry, and egg production is forecast to offset reduced hog numbers and keep feed demand strong. Corn is expected to represent 88 percent of feed and residual use in 1999/2000, up from 85 percent in 1998/99. The grain used per grain consuming animal unit in 1999/2000 is up 4 percent from 1998/99's 1.8 tons. U.S. stocks of corn are projected to decline nearly 2 percent as gains in use outstrip production in 1999/2000. Domestic disappearance is expected to set another record because of low prices and a buoyant economy. However, corn exports are expected to drop because of increased competition from China. Corn prices are projected to be the lowest since 1986/87. According to the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, growers intend to plant 77.9 million acres of corn in 2000, up 1 percent from last year. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn is expected to rise 5 percent from a year earlier in 1999/2000. FSI use would represent 20 percent of total corn use, the same as in 1998/99. Corn used for high fructose corn syrup and ethanol will post the largest increases. The Department of Energy reported record ethanol production for September 1999-February 2000. Corn used for ethanol in 1999/2000 is forecast at a record 555 million bushels, up 6 percent from last year. The sorghum supply is up 16 percent from a year earlier in 1999/2000 because of a larger crop and beginning stocks. All uses of sorghum are expected to be up due to lower prices. The largest increase will occur in feed and residual use, which is projected to climb 24 percent to 325 million bushels. Sorghum exports are forecast at 235 million bushels in 1999/2000, up from 197 the year before, largely because of increased shipments to Mexico. The sorghum price is expected to average 84 percent of the corn price, similar to 1998/99, but weaker than the historical relationship of around 92-93 percent. In early March, sorghum growers indicated they intended to plant a record low 9 million acres in 2000, down 3 percent from 1999. Barley supply in 1999/2000 is forecast down 10 percent as larger beginning stocks only partially offset a 20-percent drop in production and lower imports. Total use is down 6 percent because of a drop in feed and residual use. With declines in production, barley prices received by farmers in 1999/2000 have strengthened from a year ago. The spread between malting and feed barley is down only about 1 percent from last year's 82 cents per bushel, suggesting malting barley supplies are still tighter than in 1997/98 when the spread was 67 cents. On March 1, growers indicated they intended to seed 5.7 million acres for 2000, up 10 percent from the 5.2 million acres seeded a year ago. Oats supplies in 1999/2000 are expected to be down 6 percent from 1998/99. Total use also may be down 6 percent with almost all use categories lower than last year. Prices received by farmers for oats in 1999/2000 are expected to average about the same as in 1998/99. On the first of March, farmers indicated they intended to harvest 2.47 million acres of oats for grain in 2000, up 1 percent from 1999. Hay production in 1999 increased 5 percent from 1998, but stocks on December 1, 1999, were down 3 percent from a year earlier. Hay prices are down in 1999/2000, following declines in 1998/99. Total silage production per roughage consuming animal unit is 1.4 tons, up from 1.3 tons in 1998. Farmers in March indicated they planned to harvest 63 million acres of hay in 2000, down 108,000 acres from 1999. In 1999/2000, world coarse grain production is expected to decline 2 percent. Barley production is expected to fall the most, but output of other coarse grains is also declining. Global supplies are maintained by sharply higher beginning stocks. Foreign production is dropping because of low world prices and adverse weather, particularly in North Africa, the Middle East, and former Soviet Union. Consumption in these drought-stricken areas is expected to be reduced by tight supplies, but in Asia, coarse grain consumption is increasing as the economies of several countries rebound from the financial crisis. World corn trade is expected to expand slowly in 1999/2000, but U.S. corn exports will drop because of increased competition. Increased U.S. sorghum exports will be only partly offsetting. China is expected to emerge as the second largest corn exporter in 1999/2000, reaching 9 million tons, far more than the 3.3 million a year ago. With increased supplies, Argentina's 1999/2000 corn exports are forecast up 8 percent to 8.5 million tons. The Feed Yearbook also contains a special report on revisions to estimated food and industrial uses of feed grains that were generated by the release of new census data. Printed copies of the Feed Yearbook will be available in about 3 weeks. For more information, contact Allen Baker (202) 6994- 5290. The full report will also be available on the ERS website at www.ers.usda.gov. END_OF_FILE