FEED YEARBOOK April 25, 2001 April 2001 FDS-2001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This Summary is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of FEED YEARBOOK will be available electronically in about 2 weeks following this summary release. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Increased Domestic Use Boosts U.S. Feed Grain Disappearance in 2000/01 Total feed grain use is projected at 271.5 million tons in 2000/01, up 1 percent from the previous year, and a record. Feed grain exports are largely unchanged from 1999/2000, with higher corn and barley offsetting lower sorghum. Domestic use is forecast to rise 2 percent from a year earlier to a record 215 million tons. Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat is expected to be down slightly from last year, but an increase in grain consuming animal units is expected to keep feed demand strong. The grain used per grain consuming animal unit in 2000/01 is down 2 percent from 1999/2000's 1.9 tons. Corn is expected to represent 89 percent of feed and residual use, up from 87 percent in 1999/2000. U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are projected to increase nearly 14 percent as production exceeds total use. Domestic disappearance is expected to set another record, but corn exports are little changed as higher exports for Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa offset reduced shipments from China and Eastern Europe. Corn prices are projected to range between $1.80 and $1.90 per bushel, compared with $1.82 in 1999/2000. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn is expected to rise 3 percent from a year earlier and represent 20 percent of total corn use, the same as in 1999/2000. Corn used for high fructose corn syrup and ethanol will post the largest increases. The Department of Energy reported record ethanol production for September 2000-February 2001. Corn used for ethanol in 2000/01 is forecast at a record 615 million bushels, up 9 percent from last year. The sorghum supply is down 19 percent from a year earlier in 2000/01 because of a smaller crop. All uses of sorghum are expected to be down due to lower supplies. The largest decrease will occur in feed and residual use, which is projected to drop 54 million bushels to 230 million. Food, seed, and industrial use is expected to decline 20 million bushels, while sorghum exports drop 41 million bushels from the 256 million the year before. The sorghum price is expected to average 97 percent of the corn price, up from 86 percent in 1999/2000, and stronger than the historical relationship of around 92-93 percent. Barley supply in 2000/01 is forecast up 2 percent as larger production offsets a 21-percent drop in beginning stocks. Total use has rebounded from last year, led by export gains. Barley prices received by farmers in 2000/01 are about the same as a year ago. The average spread between malting and feed barley in June 2000-March 2001 is down to 73 cents per bushel from last year’s 81 cents. Oats supplies in 2000/01 are expected to be up 3 percent from 1999/2000. Total use also will be up 2 percent with almost all use categories higher than last year. Prices received by farmers for oats in 2000/01 are expected to average about the same as in 1999/2000. According to the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, growers intend to plant 76.7 million acres of corn in 2001, down 4 percent from last year. Sorghum growers indicated they intend to expand plantings 2 percent to 9.4 million acres. However, barley growers intend to seed 9 percent fewer acres than the 5.8 million acres a year ago. Farmers intend to harvest 2.2 million acres of oats for grain in 2001, down 5 percent from 2000. Hay production in 2000 decreased 5 percent from 1999, and stocks on December 1, 2000, were also down 5 percent from a year earlier. Hay prices are up in 2000/01, following declines in 1999/2000. Farmers in March indicated they planned to harvest 64 million acres of hay in 2001, up from 60 million acres in 2000. World coarse grain production is expected to decline 2 percent in 2000/01, with most of the decline in corn. Producers responded to generally low world prices by planting less area, and drought in several major foreign countries reduced area and yields. Global coarse grains beginning stocks were also down. World coarse grain consumption is expected to decline slightly, with a large drop in Eastern Europe offsetting growth in several other regions. However, consumption is forecast to remain much larger than production, dropping world ending stocks 22 million tons to 143 million. Global coarse grain trade is expected to decline despite relatively low prevailing prices. Printed copies of the Feed Yearbook will be available in about 3 weeks. For more information, contact Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 or Edward Allen (202) 694-5288. The full report will also be available on the ERS website at www.ers.usda.gov. The Feed Yearbook also contains special reports on WTO background and issues and the impact of Starlink on corn trade. END_OF_FILE