FEED YEARBOOK April 25, 2002 April 2002 FDS-2002 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This Summary is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of FEED YEARBOOK will be available electronically in about 2 weeks following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Food, Seed, and Industrial Use Record-Large in 2001/02 For 2001/02, food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of feed grains is projected at a record 57.9 million tons, up 4 percent from a year earlier. By contrast, feed and residual use and exports are down slightly. Rising FSI more than offsets the small decline in feed and residual use and exports, leaving total disappearance up fractionally. Feed grain ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 45 million tons, down 15 percent from last year and the lowest since 1997/98. Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in September-August 2001/02 are expected to be down marginally from the 165 million tons used in September-August 2000/01. The grain used per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) in 2001/02 is 1.83 tons compared with 2000/01's 1.85 tons. Corn production during 2001/02 was 9.5 billion bushels, down 4 percent from a year earlier due to lower harvested area. Yields increased slightly to 138.2 bushels per acre, the second highest on record. Beginning stocks were up from the previous crop year, but supply is down 2 percent. Total domestic use is projected at a record 7,870 million bushels, up 65 million from 2000/01, and the sixth straight year of rising total domestic use. The current year-to-year increase is caused by an increase in FSI use since feed and residual use is down slightly. Corn exports are projected at 1,925 million bushels, down 10 million from 2000/01 and the lowest since 1997/98. Total use is projected at a record 9,795 million bushels, up slightly from a year earlier and above production. Thus, ending stocks are down 278 million bushels to 1,621 million. The 2001/02 season-average farm price is forecast at $1.85-$1.95 per bushel, compared with $1.85 in 2000/01. Corn FSI use in 2001/02 is expected to total 2,045 million bushels, up from 1,967 million in 2000/01. FSI use would represent 21 percent of total corn use, up 1 percentage point from 2000/01. Corn use in 2001/02 is expected to be up for high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), starch, alcohol, cereals and other products, and seed, but glucose and dextrose use are projected to be down. Corn used to make ethanol for all of 2001/02 is forecast at 685 million bushels, up 9 percent from 2000/01. Monthly ethanol production reported by the Department of Energy set record-highs in barrels per day in October and November 2001 and again in January 2002. Sorghum production in 2001/02 was 514.5 million bushels, up more than 9 percent from a year earlier. An 858,000-acre increase in harvested area to 8.6 million is behind this year-to-year increase. Sorghum beginning stocks were down nearly 24 million bushels to41.8 million due to the small 2000/01 crop. Total 2001/02 sorghum supply is 556.3 million bushels, up 4 percent from last year. Total domestic use in 2001/02 is forecast at 260 million bushels. In contrast, sorghum exports are projected at 250 million bushels, up 5 percent from last year and well above the 5-year average of 222 million bushels. Mexico is by far the most important destination for U.S. sorghum, followed by Japan. Sorghum prices received by farmers are forecast at $1.80-$1.90, compared with $1.89 in 2000/01. Barley production in 2001/02 is estimated at 249.6 million tons, down 22 percent from 2000/01 and the lowest since 1953/54. An 18-percent decrease in harvested area and a 5-percent drop in yield caused this year-to-year decline. Total domestic use is forecast at 267 million bushels, down 10 percent from a year earlier due to lower feed and residual use. Exports are forecast at 28 million bushels, down from 57.6 million last year. Barley ending stocks for 2001/02 are forecast at 83.8 million bushels, down from 106.3 million last year and the lowest since 1995/96. The 2001/02 barley prices received by farmers are forecast at $2.20-$2.30 per bushel, compared with $2.11 in 2000/01. In addition to lower beginning stocks, oats supplies in the 2001/02 marketing year are down from a year earlier because of decreased production and imports. Production in 2001 was 117 million bushels, 33 million below 2000. Total use of oats in 2001/02 is expected to equal 230 million bushels, down 29 million from a year earlier. Ending stocks are forecast down 25 percent from the 73 million in 2000/01. Food use and seed use are each expected to increase 2 million bushels from the 2000/01 level. Feed and residual use in 2000/01 is expected to be down 18 percent from the 189 million bushels used in 2000/01. Prices received by farmers for oats in 2001/02 are expected to average about $1.55, compared with $1.10 in 2000/01 and the highest since 1997/98 when oat prices averaged $1.60 per bushel. According to the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, growers intend to plant 79 million acres of corn in 2002, up 4 percent from last year as actual plantings of 75.8 million. Sorghum growers intend to plant 9 million acres of sorghum in 2002, down from 10.3 million acres the previous year. Barley growers intend to plant 5.08 million acres, up 2 percent from a year ago. Farmers indicated they intended to harvest 2.531 million acres of oats for grain in 2002, up 33 percent from 2001. Hay production in 2001 totaled 157 million tons, up 3 percent from the revised 2000 total. Acreage harvested was up 6 percent, but the average yield is down slightly. The average yield, at 2.47 tons per acre, is down slightly from the previous year. Stocks of all hay on farms on December 1, 2001, were up 5 percent from 2000's revised 106 million tons. Farmers in March indicated they planned to harvest 63.7 million acres of hay in 2002, compared with the 63.5 million acres harvested in 2001. World coarse grain production is expected to increase more than 2 percent in 2001/02, but corn production is forecast to increase less than 1 percent because of the smaller U.S. crop. World area increased most for barley and sorghum, partly in response to relatively favorable prices during planting, and yields rebounded from the drought-reduced levels in several major countries. Global coarse grain beginning stocks were down. World coarse grain consumption is expected to increase nearly 2 percent, slightly above trend, after declining the previous year. Also, consumption is forecast to remain much larger than production, dropping world ending stocks 19 million metric tons to 168 million. U.S. corn exports for the October-September 2001/02 trade year are forecast at 49 million tons, up less than 2 percent. Reduced competition from Argentina, China, and Brazil is mostly offset by increased exports from Eastern Europe and large supplies of inexpensive wheat for feeding. Global coarse grain trade is expected to decline despite relatively low prevailing prices. Printed copies of the Feed Yearbook will be available in several weeks. For further information, contact Allen Baker (202) 694-5290, Edward Allen (202) 694- 5288, or William Chambers (202) 694-5312. The full report will also be available on the ERS web site at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/corn/. 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