FEED OUTLOOK March 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS--0396. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Export Forecast Raised Again o Model Update: Using Corn Futures To Forecast Farm Prices o A Corn Yield Model: Indications for 1996 The feed grain situation will continue extremely tight for the remaining months of 1995/96. Changes in USDA's forecasts were fairly small this month, but reinforced this tight outlook. Corn exports were increased 50 million bushels, while imports went up 5 million. This reduced projected ending stocks 45 million bushels. Oats imports and ending stocks each dropped 5 million bushels. The barley export forecast was raised 10 million bushels and imports lowered by 5 million, resulting in small cuts in domestic use and stocks. Grain stocks estimates as of March 1 will be released on March 29. This will provide a benchmark to gauge the pace of disappearance for the December- February quarter. Prospective Plantings will also be released that day, providing farmers' spring planting intentions. A large increase in corn plantings is likely, with most analysts expecting something in the range of 10-15 percent over 1995. CORN EXPORTS UP 50 MILLION BUSHELS TO 2,250 MILLION The forecast of 1995/96 U.S. corn exports was increased 50 million bushels to 2,250 million, up 3 percent from the previous year. This reflects lower prospective competing exports from Argentina and an increase in global corn trade. U.S. export sales have continued strong in recent weeks. Total commitments as of February 29 stood at 48.9 million tons, equal to 86 percent of the forecast for the year. In Argentina, where harvesting is just starting, forecast corn production and exports were both reduced 500,000 tons. In South Africa, conditions have been very favorable with abundant rainfall, and the crop forecast was raised 1 million tons. However, because South Africa's crop will not be available until this summer, the forecast of its corn exports was only increased 250,000 tons for the September-August year. EXPECTED FARM PRICE OF CORN SLIPS, MARKET PRICES STRENGTHEN The forecast range of weighted average corn prices received by farmers for 1995/96 was narrowed this month by 5 cents on the low end and 15 cents on the high end, to $3.05 to $3.25 per bushel. The January farm price was $3.09 per bushel, while the preliminary February price rose to $3.33, the highest since June 1984. Although the corn market is very hot, much of the corn has already been sold by producers, holding down the season-average weighted price. By the end of February, marketings have typically reached around two-thirds of the year's total. The preliminary farm price of sorghum soared to another record in February, hitting $3.41 per bushel, up from $3.24 in January. The season-average price range was also narrowed to $3.10 to $3.30 per bushel. Barley and oats price forecasts were not adjusted. Cash and futures prices of corn have been advancing recently after a brief slump in early February. Cash prices at Central Illinois points averaged $3.71 per bushel in February, the highest month on record for this series. Futures prices for nearby contracts (March and May) were trading around $3.85-3.90 in early March, the highest in 15 years. DOMESTIC CORN USE UNCHANGED Total domestic use was not changed this month. Because of higher exports, projected ending stocks of corn were reduced 45 million bushels to 412 million. This would be the lowest of any September-August marketing year. (Stocks were lower in 1974/75 when there was an October-September year.) There was an adjustment between two categories of food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) of corn, with a 15-million-bushel increase in corn used for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) offset by a drop in use for ethanol. Preliminary data suggest fuel alcohol production will use 500 million bushels in 1995/96, down from 533 million the year before. Higher corn prices in 1996 and relatively stable prices for alcohol have squeezed margins for alcohol producers. Production has slowed at currently operating plants, and some alcohol plants have shut down. On the other hand, 5 percent more corn will likely be used to make HFCS than in 1994/95. Additional production capacity has been added by HFCS producers. Prices for HFCS are up from last year but not up as much as prices for sugar. Thus, users will continue adding HFCS to many products because of the lower cost. Total FSI use is forecast down 8 million bushels in 1995/96 to 1,685 million. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Transportation: T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released April 12, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** USING CORN FUTURES PRICES TO FORECAST PRODUCER PRICES by Linwood Hoffman, (202) 501-71 Futures prices are a composite indicator of expected supply and use and can be used to forecast short-run farm prices, despite concerns about the impact of technical traders on futures prices. This forecasting procedure for corn was first explained in the March 1992 (WS-296) issue of the Feed Situation and Outlook Report. A forecast of the season-average price for corn is presented for the 1995/96 crop year. Method and Procedure. Forecasts are made of the monthly average cash corn price received by farmers for each of the 12 months of the crop year, starting with September. Each month's forecast is based on the current futures price for the nearest contract (referred to as the "nearby futures contract"). The forecast for each month is obtained by adding a historical average-price- difference "basis" (cash price minus futures price) to the nearby futures price. Monthly price forecasts are then weighted by a historical percentage of sales by month to calculate the weighted season-average price forecast. The difference between a cash price at a specific location and the price of a particular futures contract is known as the basis. The basis in this study is the arithmetic difference between the monthly U.S. average cash price received by producers and the nearby futures settlement price. A 5-year moving average, or another appropriate average, of these bases is used to reduce distortions that may occur in any given month and is updated at the end of each crop year. Monthly marketings are used to construct the weighted season-average price. Each month's weight represents the proportion of the year's marketings in that month. A moving average of these monthly weights was used to smooth the annual weights. The monthly prices, actual or forecast, are multiplied by each month's corresponding weight. The forecast procedure involves six steps which are illustrated in table A. 1. Recent futures settlement prices (item 1) are gathered for the contracts that are trading. Settlement prices for Tuesday March 5, 1996, are used for illustration (item 1). Futures quotes are used for May, July, and September 1996 contract settlement prices. 2. Monthly futures prices are the settlement prices of the nearby contracts, except when in the month that the contract matures. For these months, the next nearby price is used. 3. A forecast of the monthly average farm price (item 4) is computed by adding the basis (item 3) to the monthly futures price (item 2). The basis used was the average of 1988/89 and 1993/94, years of reduced production and firm demand similar to 1995/96. 4. Actual monthly average farm prices are entered in item 5 as they become available. The most recent price represents a mid-month price and is updated the following month. 5. The actual and forecast farm prices are spliced together in item 6. For the present marketing year, 1995/96, six of the monthly prices shown are actual farm prices of corn (September through February), while the last six monthly prices are forecasts. 6. The monthly percentage of corn marketings by producers (an average of the two crop years 1988/89 and 1993/94) is used to weight the monthly farm prices (item 6). A weighted season-average and a simple average farm price is then computed as shown. Forecast for 1995/96 Crop Year As of March 5, 1996, the futures method projection for the 1995/96 price of corn was $3.16 per bushel (table A). Price forecasts have generally risen during the marketing year, responding to reduced U.S. supply, firm domestic demand, and strong export demand. Forecast for 1996/97 Crop Year Season-average price forecasts are based on expectations reflected in the futures market. As of March 6, 1996, the futures method projection for the 1996/97 price of corn was $3.02 per bushel, using 5-year moving averages for the basis and marketing weights. Last year at this time, the model projected a price of $2.50 per bushel for 1995/96. Table A--Forecasting Corn Producers' Season-Average Price Using Futures Prices, 1995/96. Items (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Current Monthly Historical Forecast Actual Spliced Monthly Months Futures 1/ Futures Basis Farm Farm Actual/ Mktg. Settlement Price Price Price Forecast Weights - - - - - - - - - - - Dollars per Bushel- - - - - - - - - Percent September '95 -0.26 2.69 2.69 9.4 October -0.26 2.78 2.78 14.0 November -0.24 2.87 2.87 11.6 December -0.27 3.07 3.07 8.7 January '96 -0.25 3.09 3.09 13.3 February -0.11 3.33 2/ 3.33 6.5 March 3.80 -0.15 3.65 3.65 7.4 April 3.80 -0.07 3.73 3.73 5.2 May 3.80 3.74 -0.09 3.64 3.64 5.8 June 3.74 -0.08 3.66 3.66 5.8 July 3.74 3.24 +0.03 3.27 3.27 5.9 August 3.24 -0.03 3.21 3.21 6.8 September 3.24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Weighted Average Farm Price = $3.16/bu. Simple Average Farm Price = 3.25/bu. 1/Contract months include: December, March, May, July, and September. Futures price quotation from the Chicago Board of Trade. March 5, 1996, settlement. 2/Mid-month price. A CORN YIELD MODEL INCORPORATING PLANTING PROGRESS AND WEATHER VARIABLES By Paul Westcott (202) 219-0609 Estimates of 1996 corn yields will be particularly important because of this year's tight market conditions. USDA's initial 1996 corn yield projection of 127 bushels an acre, released in the February 1996 Long-term Agricultural Projections to 2005 report, was based on a composite of a number of different modeling and statistical approaches. This section discusses one of the corn yield models used. This corn yield model is based on trend, July weather, and mid-May plantings progress (table B). Data used to estimate the model are from 1975-1995. The data for weather and mid-May plantings are for the 5-State Corn Belt (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri) which typically accounts for about half of total U.S. corn production. Almost 90 percent of national corn yield variation is explained by the estimated regression equation. The model is linear in all variables except July Corn Belt precipitation. However, the response of corn yields to different amounts of precipitation is not linear. Reductions in corn yields when rainfall is below its average are larger than gains in corn yields when rainfall is above its average. The model's use of a squared term for July precipitation (JP2) represents this asymmetric effect. Assuming normal planting progress by the middle of May and average weather in July, the model suggests a 1996 corn yield of about 131 bushels an acre. However, a weighted average of corn yield estimates for alternative levels of planting progress and July weather outcomes results in a lower mean expected corn yield for 1996 of 127.5 bushels per acre, reflecting the asymmetric response of corn yields to different amounts of rainfall. This mean expectation accounts for variation in planting progress and July weather within two standard deviations of their averages, covering 95 percent of the statistical distribution of the those variables. As the planting and growing season for corn progresses, and actual data for mid-May planting progress and July weather become available, the equation can be used to provide revised model projections of the likely outcome for corn yields. Last year, for example, the model's pre-season mean expected corn yield was 125.8 bushels an acre. Late plantings last year lowered the model's expected corn yield to 117.2 bushels an acre. July 1995 Corn Belt weather that was hotter and drier than average then reduced the model's estimate to 111.3 bushels an acre, compared with 1995's actual corn yield of 113.5. Table B. Estimated Corn Yield Equation, Based on Trend, July Weather Variables, Mid-May Plantings Progress, 1988 Effects Omitted Regression equation: Intercept Trend D88 JP JP2 JT CPMIDMAY Coefficients 210.564 1.645 -30.825 22.050 -2.170 -4.083 0.247 Std Err of Coef. 71.619 0.235 6.661 5.332 0.544 0.891 0.065 t-statistics 2.940 7.007 -4.628 4.135 -3.985 -4.584 3.822 Estimation period 1975-1995 Std Err of Y Est 6.108 R Squared 0.893 Number of Observations 21 Degrees of Freedom 14 Variable definitions: Dependent variable National corn yield, bushels per acre Trend Linear trend, 1975=75 D88 1988 dummy variable to omit 1988 effects JP July precipitation in 5-state Corn Belt, inches JP2 JP squared JT July temperature in 5-state Corn Belt, degrees CPMIDMAY Corn plantings progress by mid-May in 5-state Corn Belt, percent Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 378 1,705 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 371 1,248 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 419 954 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 420 798 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,588 4,704 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 410 2,015 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 403 1,499 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,164 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 432 856 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,693 5,534 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 402 1,772 660 2,835 6,101 2.79 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 15 8,947 1,685 4,600 2,250 8,535 412 3.05-3.25 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.23 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.13 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 2 209 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 2 66 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 2 42 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 7 395 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 2 175 54 230 302 2.88 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 7 300 185 492 40 3.10-3.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 56 22 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 175 226 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 43 111 17 171 313 2.47 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 31 11 80 240 2.82 Mkt. yr. 113 359 40 512 175 200 65 440 72 2.85-2.95 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 36 28 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 125 201 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.47 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.49 Mkt. yr. 101 162 90 352 125 155 2 282 70 1.55-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------Million ---------------------- Mil. Tons 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.3 6.8 0.3 0.5 53.9 -2.2 51.7 Dec-Feb 36.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 39.4 0.1 39.5 Mar-May 29.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 32.5 -2.0 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.8 1.4 2.0 1.3 27.5 8.1 35.6 Mkt. yr. 134.5 11.9 3.8 3.2 153.4 3.9 157.3 82.7 1.90 % Change 8.6 25.3 -23.5 -8.4 8.2 -37.9 6.2 2.5 3.63 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.3 5.6 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.6 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.5 10.2 35.7 Mkt. yr. 119.5 11.5 5.9 3.4 140.3 9.6 149.8 84.0 1.78 % Change -11.2 -3.4 56.5 7.1 -8.5 145.2 -4.7 1.5 -6.2 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.7 -0.8 56.9 Dec-Feb 38.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 32.2 -0.8 31.4 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.4 1.2 26.4 8.4 34.8 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.0 4.68 2.8 158.1 7.5 165.7 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.7 -12.6 -20.9 -16.3 12.7 -21.4 10.6 0.7 9.8 1995/96 Sep-Nov 45.0 4.4 0.7 0.4 50.5 -2.7 47.9 Mkt. yr. 116.8 7.6 4.0 2.5 131.0 7.3 138.2 86.5 1.60 % Change -16.9 -24.1 -14.6 -11.0 -17.2 -3.5 -16.5 2.2 -18.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Jan Jan Sep-Jan Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.4 3.9 2.4 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.8 163.0 170.8 195.6 194.3 (Dec 1984 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.5 28.2 28.7 29.0 27.7 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.6 116.3 117.1 117.8 118.3 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 3/ 2.54 2.85 4.95 3/ 4.91 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.73 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1994/95 Oct 1.92 2.44 4.25 4.19 1.95 2.81 1.44 Nov 2.03 2.43 4.33 4.42 2.04 2.90 1.41 Dec 2.16 2.61 4.49 4.59 2.00 2.81 NQ Jan 2.22 2.72 4.44 4.63 2.02 2.81 1.46 1995/96 Oct 3.12 3.57 6.15 6.22 2.58 3.69 2.11 Nov 3.22 3.63 6.26 6.38 2.98 4.02 2.63 Dec 3.36 3.76 6.55 6.93 2.92 3.98 2.50 Jan 3.53 4.00 6.75 7.05 2.94 4.00 2.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year is September 1-August 31. 2/ Marketing year is June 1-May 31. 3/ Revised. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------$/ton------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 Monthly: 1994/95 Oct 156.40 134.40 89.25 226.90 184.60 121.25 69.00 91.90 Nov 150.90 120.50 86.85 232.50 172.70 124.00 67.90 90.90 Dec 145.40 114.20 84.30 239.40 163.10 120.75 71.30 93.60 Jan 145.10 106.75 82.20 230.50 176.25 105.60 60.00 89.00 1995/96 Oct 183.40 153.25 98.40 290.50 221.00 121.70 93.40 87.70 Nov 194.10 165.00 118.60 326.90 226.60 142.60 111.00 85.30 Dec 213.60 185.80 119.10 331.90 228.80 146.50 126.60 85.80 Jan 220.50 208.80 127.00 351.00 236.50 144.80 131.20 87.80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year is September 1-August 31. 2/ Marketing year is May 1-April 30. 3/ Revised: 1994/95 mkt. yr., Oct-Jan 1994/95, Oct-Nov 1995. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose Cereals and -----Alcohol--- & other Total Year HFCS dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1992/93 Sep-Nov 92.33 54.45 58.83 104.36 20.70 29.17 359.84 Dec-Feb 88.36 47.21 57.70 107.47 20.50 28.85 350.09 Mar-May 110.36 55.06 59.34 110.91 21.15 29.64 386.46 Jun-Aug 122.99 57.74 62.16 102.77 20.95 29.64 396.25 Mkt year 414.04 214.47 238.03 425.51 83.30 117.30 1492.65 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.23 55.79 61.71 112.23 20.69 29.42 378.08 Dec-Feb 95.00 49.58 57.60 119.33 20.47 29.10 371.07 Mar-May 117.68 56.79 61.57 112.44 20.92 29.74 399.15 Jun-Aug 131.28 60.89 62.66 114.26 20.92 29.74 419.74 Mkt year 442.18 223.05 243.54 458.26 83.00 118.00 1,568.04 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.05 58.79 62.63 134.45 20.84 29.42 410.18 Dec-Feb 99.91 51.52 60.12 141.50 20.61 29.10 402.76 Mar-May 123.28 58.49 61.45 137.73 21.07 29.74 431.77 Jun-Aug 134.77 62.41 62.65 119.11 21.07 29.74 429.75 Mkt year 462.01 231.21 246.84 532.79 83.60 118.00 1,674.45 1995/96 Sep-Nov 109.26 60.66 61.02 121.12 20.32 29.42 401.80 Mkt year 485.00 235.00 245.00 500.00 81.50 118.00 1,664.50 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 2/ 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 Monthly 1994/95 Nov 12.92 10.37 25.88 12.80 11.39 Dec 12.97 10.42 25.50 11.68 11.54 Jan 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.60 11.96 Feb 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.80 12.20 1995/96 Nov 14.87 12.34 25.50 13.30 14.36 Dec 2/ 15.15 2/ 12.62 25.50 13.30 14.42 Jan 17.01 12.91 25.50 13.15 14.57 Feb 3/ 17.29 13.19 25.50 13.15 15.11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year is September 1-August 31. 2/ Revised 3/ Preliminary Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-Dec Mkt. yr. Sep-Dec Sep-Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 5,164 15,849 4,917 5,036 Taiwan 5,077 2,097 6,027 1,986 2,021 Former USSR 2,909 2,820 140 33 27 South Africa 12 11 187 0 163 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 124 449 160 178 EU 1,765 312 2,836 394 1,173 Egypt 1,553 774 2,569 822 905 Canada 603 158 1,096 361 290 China 0 0 3,240 36 2,152 East Europe 48 48 112 67 134 Algeria 1,176 430 1,000 601 211 S. Korea 508 85 8,005 1,991 2,942 Mexico 1,468 109 2,985 1,696 1,569 Others 5,813 2,504 10,723 3,566 4,628 Total 33,649 14,635 55,218 16,631 21,431 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 542 2,557 973 565 Japan 1,640 787 2,050 866 677 Others 432 86 1,008 333 836 Total 5,044 1,414 5,615 2,171 2,078 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Dec Mkt. yr. June-Dec June-Dec BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 344 5 203 0 148 Israel 335 266 468 427 42 Jordan 251 199 51 51 0 Others 504 352 671 459 589 Total 1,433 822 1,392 936 779 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Dec Mkt. yr. June-Dec June-Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,011 711 1,161 764 964 Finland 526 321 374 330 8 Sweden 303 120 70 26 62 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,840 1,152 1,605 1,120 1,034 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 453 199 715 457 449 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 453 200 716 457 449 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 1,098 312 702 457 86 Other 5 20 16 16 5 Total 1/ 1,103 332 719 473 91 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END