FEED OUTLOOK April 12, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-0496. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Disappearance Fairly Large for Second Quarter o 1995/96 Corn Use: FSI Forecast Trimmed and Feed and Residual Up o Corn Prices Soar to Record o Prospective Plantings Report Points to Larger Acreage for 1996 Despite rising prices, feed grain demand has shown few signs of significant slowing so far this year. Corn disappearance in the second quarter of the marketing year was relatively large. Many farm, cash, and futures prices have reached record highs, reflecting tight supplies and expectations for continued tightening until new-crop supplies become available later in the year. Projected ending stocks of corn in 1995/96 were reduced 45 million bushels this month to 367 million due to an increase in domestic use. Corn feed and residual use was raised 100 million bushels, while food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) was reduced 55 million. Changes for the other feed grains were small. Ending stocks of barley were raised 10 million bushels to 82 million, given slower than expected feed and residual use to date. Forecast imports of oats were lowered 5 millon bushels to 85 million. CORN DISAPPEARANCE ESTIMATED AT 2.3 BILLION BUSHELS FOR DECEMBER-FEBRUARY Corn stocks on March 1, 1996, were 3,799 million bushels, down 32 percent from a year earlier. Of this total, 2,000 million were held on farms and 1,799 million off farms. Stocks of the other feed grains were also down from the previous March. Sorghum was down 42 percent, barley 9 percent, and oats 25 percent. Pending the release of final trade data for February, corn disappearance for December-February is estimated at 2,312 million bushels. This is a drop of 18 percent from the first quarter, in line with the typical seasonal pattern. It was somewhat higher, however, than many expected. It was the second highest figure for a second quarter on record, indicative of the strength of both domestic and export demand. Feed and residual use for the quarter is estimated at 1,348 million bushels, down 10 percent from the year before. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), at 384 million bushels, was the lowest for any quarter in 2 years. The preliminary estimate for December-February exports is 580 million, slightly below a year earlier. February exports were probably held back somewhat by unfavorable weather conditions at midmonth that prevented some ship loadings. FEED DEMAND REMAINS STRONG Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in first half 1995/96 totaled 85 million metric tons, down 15 percent from 1994/95. With higher prices, use will decline more rapidly and for the year, may total 139 million tons, down from 166 million in 1994/95. The number of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) is slightly higher than last year but has slipped from previous months as slight declines occur in animal number projections. GCAU's in 1995/96 are expected to total 86.1 million units, up from 84.6 million in 1994/95. Recent pig crop reports indicated that GCAU's for hogs would be slightly below last year. The only increases in the GCAU's are from cattle on feed and the poultry sector. On March 29, 1996, the latest survey of hog producers was released. Farmers surveyed around March 1 said they intended to farrow 1 percent fewer sows in March-May 1996 than the previous year. They reported a similar reduction for the December 1995-February 1996 period in numbers of sows farrowing. However, the number of pigs per litter continued to increase in the December-February quarter, up 2 percent, raising the pig crop 1 percent from a year earlier. The broiler sector has made some media announcements that it is cutting back production. However, weekly egg sets continued nearly the same or slightly above last year until the end of March. The latest weekly broiler egg sets and chicks placed suggest there is a slight reduction. Turkey and egg production are not expected to change from earlier forecasts. Numbers of dairy cows continue below a year earlier and with higher prices for concentrates, milk production increases per cow have slipped, leaving milk output nearly even with a year earlier. Grain and other concentrates fed on January 1, 1996 (latest data available) were .1 pound less than January 1, 1995. Cattle on feed on March 1 in the 7 monthly States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more were down 1 percent from the previous year. High grain prices resulting in low feeder cattle prices have caused cow-calf producers to hold their calves on grass longer. With large areas in cattle country not receiving normal rains, ranchers may soon be forced to move both retained calves and possibly brood cows. CORN USED FOR ETHANOL DOWN 12 PERCENT IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR, BUT SWEETENERS UP Food, seed, and industrial use of corn in September 1995-February 1996 totaled 786 million bushels, down from 813 million in the previous year. FSI use represented 15 percent of total use in first-half 1995/96, the same as in 1994/95. For all of 1995/96, FSI use is expected to total 1,630 million bushels, down 55 million from last month's forecast. This would represent 18 percent of total supply. FSI use in 1994/95 totaled 1,693 million bushels, 15 percent of total supply. Corn used to make corn sweeteners continued to increase in first-half 1995/96. Use was up 4 percent from the first half of 1994/95. New facilities have become operational, expanding output. Much of the sweeteners are sold on yearly contracts, and news reports during those negotiations suggested producers wanted to increase prices, but buyers held out for lower prices citing increased capacity. Corn used to make starch in the first half of 1995/96 was down 4 percent from a year earlier. Corn starch prices have been stronger and may have encouraged some switching to reduce use. However, if the economy stays strong as expected, starch use of corn may increase relative to a year ago in the second half of the year. Corn used for ethanol production in 1995/96 is forecast at 440 million bushels, down 60 million from a month ago and down 17 percent from last year. Higher corn prices have reduced profits for fuel ethanol producers, especially dry mill operations, and production has been cut. In February 1996, ethanol production was reported at 74,000 barrels per day, down from 100,000 a year earlier. Production has been declining from last year all during the first half of the corn marketing year, and production declined 12 percent during September 1995-February 1996 relative to the same period in 1994/95. With corn prices expected to stay strong and the major demand for ethanol as an oxygenate coming during the winter, producers are expected to keep production low until corn prices drop as the new crop becomes available. EXPORT SALES OF CORN REMAIN STRONG The forecast for 1995/96 U.S. corn exports was unchanged this month at 2,250 million bushels. U.S. Export Sales reported shipments and outstanding sales for the 1995/96 marketing year had reached 53.4 million tons as of April 4, or 2.1 billion bushels. Sales for the next marketing year have already reached 2.7 million tons, five times the amount at this point a year ago. There were a number of changes in world corn trade forecasts that were largely offsetting. Higher prospective imports by Mexico and Turkey were about balanced by reductions for Russia, Brazil. and China. China's corn export intentions are still uncertain, and USDA's export forecast of 1 million tons was unchanged this month. Recent rumors that China's Government will relax a ban on exports have not been confirmed. Corn prices in the major producing areas in the northeast of China have fallen in recent months. Prices are currently reported in the range of $115-120 per ton, and local authorities are likely pressing to export some corn. Planting in the main growing regions will be getting underway soon. Early expectations are for another large crop in China in 1996. CORN PRICES SOAR TO RECORD HIGHS The preliminary price of corn received by farmers in March was a record $3.54 per bushel, up from $3.37 in February. The previous high for a month was $3.45 in October 1974. Because most corn has already been sold, however, rising prices will have little impact on the season average price received by farmers. The forecast range of weighted average farm prices for 1995/96 was narrowed this month by 5 cents on each end to $3.10-3.20 per bushel. The preliminary farm price of sorghum rose to another record, reaching $3.56 in March, up 7 cents from February. The season average forecast price range was narrowed to $3.10 to $3.20 per bushel. The preliminary farm price of oats rose 6 cents from February to $2.03 per bushel, the highest since May 1989. The forecast of the season average oats price was bumped up 5 cents on each end of the range to $1.60-1.70. The all barley price received by farmers in March slipped 2 cents to $3.26 per bushel, as the feed barley price declined and malting barley price rose. There was no change in the barley season price forecast. Market prices for corn have skyrocketed in the last few days. After averaging a record $3.92 per bushel in March, Central Illinois cash prices had increased to $4.41 by April 10. This was $2 higher than the average price in April 1995. Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade repeatedly surpassed contract highs in early April, and the nearby contract established all time highs. The May contract hit a record $4.55 1/4 on April 11. Contracts for new crop corn were also up sharply, with December settling at $3.39 3/4 on April 11. This means that farmers can lock in very favorable prices, if they choose to, well in advance. FARM SURVEY INDICATES CORN PLANTINGS TO RISE 12 PERCENT IN 1996 Farmers are planning to plant 79.9 million acres of corn in 1996, up from 71.2 million actually planted in 1995, according to the Prospective Plantings report. This was based on a survey conducted by USDA in early March. Actual plantings can change from these intentions, depending on the weather at planting time and market conditions. Over the last 10 years, changes between intentions and final estimates have averaged 1.36 million acres. Farmers said they intended to plant 62.5 million acres of soybeans, the major crop competing with corn. Given relative prices at the time of the survey, some analysts expected more corn and less soybeans than indicated. Possible reasons their expectations were not met include farmers' interest in maintaining or expanding rotations, the cost of producing corn versus soybeans, concern about corn borer in some areas, and expectations about summer growing conditions. Among the States, sharp gains in corn acreage were indicated for the Southeast and Delta States, with corn apparently pulling some land away from cotton and even rice. Because of the relatively small area involved, and yields that are generally lower than the national average, this will not have a big impact on total U.S. production. However, it is significant to the extent that harvests in these areas could be available before those in the major producing States in the Corn Belt. Texas is the most important producing State where much corn can be harvested by August, but farmers there planned to increase corn acreage by only 2 percent in 1996. As of the first week in April, 52 percent of the crop was planted, slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Because of higher acreage, U.S. production of other feed grains is also likely to increase over 1995. Sorghum plantings in 1996 are expected to reach 10.6 million acres, up 12 percent from 1995. Texas accounts for nearly all of this increase. There is some potential for further gains if some farmers decide to replant failed wheat acreage with sorghum, but much will depend on rainfall received in the next few weeks. Barley plantings are indicated at 7.2 million acres, up 8 percent, with most of the gain expected in North Dakota. Oats plantings are expected to decline 16 percent to 5.3 million acres. Farmers plan to harvest 7 percent more for grain, however, than last year. This reflects less use of oats as a cover crop in the absence of an acreage reduction program. TRANSPORTATION: DEMAND PRESSES RAIL SYSTEM In March, rail car loadings of grains and oilseeds averaged 31,038 cars per month, up 8 percent from the prior month and 9 percent above the 10-year average. At this level, some shippers usually become subject to delays in receiving empty cars. This year's Asian demand for feed grains is likely to intensify the situation. Nearly all of the increased loadings result from rising deliveries of grain to Pacific Coast ports. These ports are farther from Corn Belt shipping points than are East Gulf ports. As a result, the round trip to Pacific Coast ports requires many more car-days, which diminishes railroads' ability to furnish cars at the times and in the quantities desired. Media sources indicate that track congestion on rail routes to Seattle and Tacoma, WA, intensify the problem. One of the routes through the Cascade Mountains, was "mothballed" during the rail line abandonment movement prevalent in the 1980's. The Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation, the Nation's largest grain mover, is reported to be attempting to reopen this route. Various problems, however, are expected to delay opening until 1997. The increased demand for rail service is not expected to produce markedly increased rail rates. Inter-rail and intermodal competition is expected to restrain rate climb. Through February, rail rates averaged 1 percent above 1994/95. RIVER OPENINGS TO EASE TRANSPORTATION SQUEEZE Even though the Upper Mississippi was not open to navigation in March, grain volume soared 94 percent to 3.5 million short tons on the Illinois and Mississippi waterways. This is 17 percent above the 10-year average and the third highest for the month since 1982/83. With reopening of the Upper Mississippi on April 5, total grain volume on the Illinois and Mississippi waterways is expected to exceed 4.0 million short tons in April as Minnesota and Iowa shippers regain access to barge service. Opening of the Missouri river on April 1 should somewhat ease transportation pressures in the western Corn Belt. Shipments from the Missouri River are not included in the Illinois and Mississippi waterway data. With many additional shipping points now able to use barge service and large exports of corn in view, barge rates are expected to rise. During the first week of April, shippers bid as much as 205 percent of tariff for late April service, up from 160-175 percent of tariff the previous week. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Transportation: T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released May 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 378 1,705 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 371 1,248 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 419 954 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 420 798 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,588 4,704 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 410 2,015 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 403 1,499 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,164 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 432 856 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,693 5,534 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 402 1,767 660 2,830 6,106 2.79 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 384 1,348 580 2,312 3,799 3.16 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 15 8,947 1,630 4,700 2,250 8,580 367 3.10-3.20 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 2 209 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 2 66 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 2 42 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 7 395 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 2 175 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 73 65 139 162 3.26 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 7 300 185 492 40 3.10-3.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 56 22 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 175 226 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 43 111 17 171 313 2.47 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 29 11 78 243 2.82 Dec-Feb 243 --- 10 252 38 20 18 76 176 3.19 Mkt. yr. 113 359 40 512 175 190 65 430 82 2.85-2.95 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 36 28 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 125 201 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.47 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.49 Dec-Feb 153 --- 17 170 28 29 0.5 57 112 1.94 Mkt. yr. 101 162 85 347 125 150 2 277 70 1.60-1.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------Million ---------------------- Mil. Tons 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.3 6.8 0.3 0.5 53.9 -2.2 51.7 Dec-Feb 36.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 39.4 0.1 39.5 Mar-May 29.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 32.5 -2.0 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.8 1.4 2.0 1.3 27.5 8.1 35.6 Mkt. yr. 134.5 11.9 3.8 3.2 153.4 3.9 157.3 82.7 1.90 % Change 8.6 25.3 -23.5 -8.4 8.2 -37.9 6.2 2.5 3.63 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.3 5.6 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.6 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.5 10.2 35.7 Mkt. yr. 119.5 11.5 5.9 3.4 140.3 9.6 149.8 84.0 1.78 % Change -11.2 -3.4 56.5 7.1 -8.5 145.2 -4.7 1.5 -6.2 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.7 -0.8 56.9 Dec-Feb 38.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 32.2 -0.8 31.4 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.4 1.2 26.4 8.4 34.8 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.0 4.68 2.8 158.1 7.5 165.7 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.7 -12.6 -20.9 -16.3 12.7 -21.4 10.5 0.7 9.8 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.9 4.5 0.6 0.4 50.4 -2.7 47.7 Dec-Feb 34.2 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.0 0.2 37.2 Mkt. yr. 119.4 7.6 3.8 2.3 133.1 5.9 139.0 86.1 1.61 % Change -15.1 -24.1 -19.2 -18.9 -15.8 -21.6 -16.1 1.8 -17.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Feb Feb Sep-Feb Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.0 3.5 1.8 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.8 161.1 151.7 191.7 172.3 (Dec 1984 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.4 28.4 29.4 29.0 28.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.6 116.4 116.9 117.8 118.1 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 3/ 2.54 2.85 4.95 3/ 4.91 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.73 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1994/95 Nov 2.03 2.43 4.33 4.42 2.04 2.90 1.41 Dec 2.16 2.61 4.49 4.59 2.00 2.81 NQ Jan 2.22 2.72 4.44 4.63 2.02 2.81 1.46 Feb 2.27 2.72 4.48 4.63 2.06 2.82 1.42 1995/96 Nov 3.22 3.63 6.26 6.38 2.98 4.02 2.63 Dec 3.36 3.76 6.55 6.93 2.92 3.98 2.50 Jan 3.53 4.00 6.75 7.05 2.94 4.00 2.40 Feb 3.71 4.18 7.25 7.25 3.00 3.47 2.31 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1-August 31. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1-May 31. 3/ Revised. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------$/ton------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 Monthly: 1994/95 Nov 150.90 120.50 86.85 232.50 172.70 124.00 67.90 90.90 Dec 145.40 114.20 84.30 239.40 163.10 120.75 71.30 93.60 Jan 145.10 106.75 82.20 230.50 176.25 105.60 60.00 89.00 Feb 149.40 97.50 81.00 221.25 181.00 97.00 62.50 89.00 1995/96 Nov 194.10 165.00 118.60 326.90 226.60 142.60 111.00 85.30 Dec 213.60 185.80 119.10 331.90 228.80 146.50 126.60 85.80 Jan 220.50 208.80 127.00 351.00 236.50 144.80 131.20 87.80 Feb 216.70 202.80 122.10 342.50 217.60 144.00 118.70 88.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1-August 31. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1-April 30. 3/ Revised: 1994/95 mkt. yr., Oct-Jan 1994/95, Oct-Nov 1995. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose Cereals and -----Alcohol--- & other Total Year HFCS dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1992/93 Sep-Nov 92.33 54.45 58.83 104.36 20.70 29.17 359.84 Dec-Feb 88.36 47.21 57.70 107.47 20.50 28.85 350.09 Mar-May 110.36 55.06 59.34 110.91 21.15 29.64 386.46 Jun-Aug 122.99 57.74 62.16 102.77 20.95 29.64 396.25 Mkt year 414.04 214.47 238.03 425.51 83.30 117.30 1492.65 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.23 55.79 61.71 112.23 20.69 29.42 378.08 Dec-Feb 95.00 49.58 57.60 119.33 20.47 29.10 371.07 Mar-May 117.68 56.79 61.57 112.44 20.92 29.74 399.15 Jun-Aug 131.28 60.89 62.66 114.26 20.92 29.74 419.74 Mkt year 442.18 223.05 243.54 458.26 83.00 118.00 1,568.04 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.05 58.79 62.63 134.45 20.84 29.42 410.18 Dec-Feb 99.91 51.52 60.12 141.50 20.61 29.10 402.76 Mar-May 123.28 58.49 61.45 137.73 21.07 29.74 431.77 Jun-Aug 134.77 62.41 62.65 119.11 21.07 29.74 429.75 Mkt year 462.01 231.21 246.84 532.79 83.60 118.00 1,674.45 1995/96 Sep-Nov 109.26 60.66 61.02 121.12 20.32 29.42 401.80 Dec-Feb 104.43 52.89 56.37 120.82 20.10 29.10 383.71 Mkt year 485.00 240.00 245.00 440.00 81.50 118.00 1,609.50 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 2/ 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 Monthly 1994/95 Dec 12.97 10.42 25.50 11.68 11.54 Jan 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.60 11.96 Feb 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.80 12.20 Mar 13.13 10.58 25.50 11.80 12.32 1995/96 Dec 2/ 15.15 2/ 12.62 25.50 13.30 14.42 Jan 17.01 12.91 25.50 13.15 14.57 Feb 2/ 17.36 13.26 25.50 13.15 15.11 Mar 3/ 17.77 13.67 25.50 13.15 15.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1-August 31. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-Jan Mkt. yr. Sep-Jan Sep-Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 6,057 15,849 6,283 6,481 Taiwan 5,077 2,641 6,027 2,245 2,635 Former USSR 2,909 2,820 140 33 27 South Africa 12 11 187 0 261 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 190 449 224 223 EU 1,765 539 2,836 760 1,806 Egypt 1,553 903 2,569 1,082 1,056 Canada 603 169 1,096 422 318 China 0 0 3,240 346 2,207 East Europe 48 48 112 67 134 Algeria 1,176 612 1,000 655 297 S. Korea 508 87 8,005 2,929 3,734 Mexico 1,468 131 2,985 1,783 2,080 Others 5,813 3,000 10,723 4,620 5,591 Total 33,649 17,206 55,218 21,450 26,850 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 843 2,557 1,166 671 Japan 1,640 913 2,050 1,061 886 Others 432 152 1,008 468 1,091 Total 5,044 1,907 5,615 2,695 2,648 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Jan Mkt. yr. June-Jan June-Jan BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 344 5 203 0 244 Israel 335 266 468 427 42 Jordan 251 199 51 51 0 Others 504 365 671 514 702 Total 1,433 835 1,392 991 989 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Jan Mkt. yr. June-Jan June-Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,011 756 1,161 844 1,059 Finland 526 368 374 374 8 Sweden 303 172 70 70 62 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,840 1,296 1,605 1,288 1,129 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 453 249 715 491 481 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 453 249 716 491 481 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 1,098 400 702 552 97 Other 5 0 16 16 5 Total 1/ 1,103 400 719 568 103 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END