FEED OUTLOOK June 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS--0696. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Planting Problems Reduce Expected Corn Production; Sorghum Expected Higher o Corn FSI Use Trimmed for 1995/96 and 1996/97 o Price Forecasts Raised for 1996 Crops o New Farm Legislation in Effect FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION DOWN FROM INITIAL PROJECTION FOR 1996 USDA reduced projected corn acreage and production this month because of prolonged wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt. However, expected sorghum plantings and production were raised, reflecting increases in areas where wheat was abandoned. Output of U.S. feed grains in 1996 is projected at 260 million metric tons, down 5 million tons from the initial projection a month ago, but still up 51 million tons from 1995. Prospective feed grain use in 1996/97 was adjusted down slightly. Forecast feed and residual use of corn was reduced 100 million bushels this month, but this was partly offset by an increase of 35 million bushels in sorghum and 15 million in barley feed and residual. Because of higher expected prices, forecast use of corn for ethanol in 1996/97 was also trimmed 15 million bushels. Feed grain ending stocks in 1996/97 are projected at 21.5 million tons, 2.7 million tons lower than a month ago. While this would be 9 million tons above the forecast for 1995/96, it would still be very low by historical standards. Tighter supplies and reduced stocks are expected to boost prices for corn and the other feed grains from last month's projections. CORN CROP PROJECTED AT 9,125 MILLION BUSHELS Forecast corn plantings were cut 2 million acres to 79 million as a result of excessively wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt. Farmers are expected to switch much of this land into soybeans, which usually fare better than late planted corn. The production forecast was reduced 250 million bushels from last month to 9,125 million. This would be 19 percent greater than the 1995 crop. Nationally, 92 percent of the corn crop was planted as of June 9, below the 5 -year average of 96 percent, but ahead of 88 percent in 1995. Concerns about delayed plantings have mainly focused on Indiana and Ohio, but problems have also occurred in Illinois, Michigan, and other States. Progress in the western Corn Belt has been much better this spring. Planting in Iowa, the Nation's largest corn State, was ahead of normal, although there are reports that poor conditions in parts of the State may lead to some replanting. The forecast of 1996 sorghum production was raised to 675 million bushels, up 35 million from the initial projection, and 47 percent greater than last year's outturn. Planted area was increased 500,000 acres to 11.1 million. Farmer s are expected to plant more sorghum on failed wheat acres, especially in Kansas, the largest sorghum producing State. USDA's Acreage report, to be released June 28, will permit an updated assessment of plantings. Because of poor conditions, however, farmers in some areas will not have finished planting by the time the survey is completed on June 13. FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN EXPECTED TO SLIP FURTHER In 1995/96, food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to total 1,600 million bushels, down 30 million from a month ago. This would account for 18 percent of total supply. In 1994/95, FSI use reached 1,693 million bushels and consumed 15 percent of total supply. Expected use for the production of ethanol is down 25 million bushels from last month, as producers have cut back because of high corn prices. Relatively large cutbacks in production have strengthened ethanol prices slightly but not enough to offset strong corn prices. The higher prices of ethanol and lower prices for gasoline and MTBE, another oxygenate, have reduced the incentive for blenders to use ethanol to increase octane in gasoline, and there have been some reports of surplus ethanol in some markets. Ethanol producers have cut production to only supply contract quantities. In addition, the forecast of corn used for starch production was lowered 5 million bushels based on industry indications that starch shipments are running below earlier forecasts. Declines in paper prices may have paper users working off inventories and thus cut paper producers' needs for starch. In general the economy appears strong, suggesting starch users would be needing supplies. Starch prices have been increasing as corn prices increase and starch users may have found substitutes. FSI use in 1996/97 may total 1,675 million bushels, a slight decline from last month's projection but a 5-percent increase from 1995/96. Ethanol production estimates were reduced because of the smaller crop and higher price expectations than last month. SMALL GAIN EXPECTED IN WHEAT FEEDING, BUT SUMMER OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY TIGHT Feed and residual use of wheat was increased 25 million bushels this month for the June-August quarter. Spurred by declining prices as the harvest comes in, larger than normal amounts of soft red wheat are expected to be fed, particularly by the poultry industry. Soft red wheat prices are currently trading at a substantial discount to hard red wheat, which is normally the main class of wheat fed, primarily in the cattle sector in the southwest. Despite the forecast increase, use of wheat for feeding this summer will still be relatively low compared with previous years. In 1993/94, when corn supplies were tight after flood damage, summer wheat feed and residual use was about 100 million bushels higher. At that time, substantial amounts of feed wheat were imported from Canada. In addition, imports of feed barley from Canada were large in the spring and summer of 1994. Imports of feed barley have been very low in recent months and are likely to stay low through the summer months because of short supplies in Canada. Supplies of feed grains will be very tight until the new corn harvest begins. The situation could be aggravated if much corn is tied up in hedge-to-arrive disputes. The amount involved is unknown, but thought to be fairly small. On the other hand, pressure on corn supplies this summer could ease slightly if the new crop outlook is favorable. The Secretary of Agriculture has announced the intention of releasing some or all of the last remaining Government feed grain stocks under the former feed emergency reserve program. This consists of 46 million bushels, largely corn. No definite plan of how much or when this would occur has been announced yet. On June 28, the next Grain Stocks report will be released, providing estimates for June 1 stocks. This will allow a preliminary estimate of disappearance for the March-May quarter, and some benchmarks to gauge supplies available for the summer months. U.S. TRADE: CORN UNCHANGED, SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR BARLEY U.S. corn export forecasts were not changed this month for either 1995/96 or 1996/97. U.S. Export Sales showed total commitments, as of May 30, for 1995/96 corn had reached about 99 percent of the forecast 2,300 million bushels. However, net increases were very small in the last 2 weeks, reflecting cancellations by Japan and some unidentified buyers and switching of purchases from 1995/96 to 1996/97. Exports to Mexico are expected to remain strong in the next few weeks, however, because of very short domestic supplies. Mexico recently increased the tariff rate quota for corn again, to 7 million tons for 1996, well above the NAFTA minimum of 2.652 million. The forecast of U.S. barley exports in 1996/97 was reduced from 45 million bushels to 35 million this month. This reflects weak prospective import demand and a recovery in competitor shipments. In line with end of season adjustments, 1995/96 barley exports were trimmed 3 million bushels to 62 million and imports were raised by 3 million to 38 million. CASH, FUTURES PRICES DROP FROM PEAK; 1996/97 PRICE EXPECTATIONS UP After peaking in mid-May, market prices for corn receded through early June. Nearby futures and some cash prices had reached record highs above $5.00 per bushel. Central Illinois cash corn soared to $5.13 on May 17 and averaged $4.86 in May, up from $2.50 in May 1995. By the second week of June, there were signs of a price rebound in reaction to loss of potential acreage. However, volatility in futures contracts has been pronounced in recent weeks, with numerous moves up or down the daily limit. This largely reflects the market's reaction to weather. Farm prices of all the feed grains continued to advance in May, with corn and sorghum again breaking monthly records. The preliminary price of corn received by farmers in May reached $4.26 per bushel. The farm price in April was $3.85, which was down sharply from the preliminary price, apparently because of deliveries of corn contracted early at much lower prices. The preliminary farm price of sorghum was $4.47 in May, up 39 cents from April. With prices running more than 100 percent of the corn price, the season average sorghum price was raised 5 cents to $3.20 to $3.30 per bushel. The preliminary farm price of all barley in May, of $3.40 per bushel, was up 15 cents from April and was the highest since November 1974. The May feed barley price rose 21 cents to $3.33. The preliminary farm price of oats also increased, up 12 cents from April to $2.26 per bushel. By this time of year, sales of both barley and oats are generally very low. For 1996/97, forecasts of each feed grain price were increased. The season average farm price of corn is up 20 cents to $2.90-$3.30 per bushel, sorghum up 25 cents to $2.80-$3.20, barley up 10 cents to $2.75-$3.15, and oats up 20 cents to $1.75-$2.15. NEW FARM BILL IN EFFECT A one-time sign up for the farm program began May 20 and will end July 12. Producers may enroll acreage in a 7-year "production flexibility contract" covering 1996-2002. The payments, sometimes referred to as market transition payments, will be made to participating farmers independent of farm prices. Participation is expected to be very high. The Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 became law in April and marks a sharp change from previous legislation. FAIR reduces the role of the Government and increases reliance on the market to guide planting decisions. Among numerous changes, the acreage reduction program (ARP) was eliminated along with deficiency payments, which were linked to the level of farm prices relative to target prices. Loan rates are retained, in a modified form, as well as the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) under which environmentally sensitive land is taken out of crop production for 10 years. The FAIR act allows "early-out" of CRP under certain circumstances, however, to allow producers to respond to market conditions. The amount of money to be paid under the new contracts is fixed, with commodity shares allocated in advance, and will decline over the 7 year period. Cumulative outlays will total nearly $35.6 billion. Corn accounts for the biggest share of total payments at 46.2 percent, followed by wheat at 26.2 percent. Sorghum is allocated 5 percent, barley 2.2 percent, and oats 0.15 percent. Farms are eligible to enter contracts if they had at least one crop acreage base that participated in a production adjustment program in the previous 5 years. Payments will be based on program yield times 85 percent of contract acreage. The actual contract rates will depend on how many farms participate. In addition, there will be some adjustments for overpayments of advance deficiency payments made under the old system. The estimated contract rates for 1996, assuming 100 percent participation, are 24 cents per bushel for corn, 31 cents for sorghum, 23 cents for barley, and 2 cents for oats. Rates will be higher if participation is less. Advance payments of 50 percent will be made shortly after sign-up. (For more information on the FAIR Act, see Agricultural Outlook, Special Supplement, Provisions of the 1996 Farm Bill, April 1996.) It is still early to judge the impact of FAIR on 1996 planting decisions. Because of tight supplies, zero ARP's would have been in place under the old program. With high projected prices for 1996/97, no deficiency payments would have been required as well. However, with no base acreage restrictions, many producers have reportedly based decisions this spring more on rotational needs. Farmers also have more flexibility to switch crops in response to adverse weather or changes in price signals. ****************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Transportation: T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released July 15, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 378 1,705 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 371 1,248 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 419 954 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 420 798 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,588 4,704 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 410 2,015 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 403 1,499 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,164 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 432 856 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,693 5,534 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 402 1,767 660 2,830 6,106 2.79 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 385 1,364 562 2,312 3,799 3.16 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 15 8,947 1,600 4,700 2,300 8,600 347 3.15-3.25 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 347 9,125 10 9,482 1,675 5,050 2,100 8,825 657 2.90-3.30 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 2 209 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 2 66 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 2 42 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 7 395 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 2 175 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 162 3.26 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 7 300 185 492 40 3.20-3.30 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 40 675 0 715 7 435 210 652 63 2.80-3.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 56 22 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 175 226 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 43 111 17 171 313 2.47 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 29 11 78 243 2.82 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 38 17 20 74 176 3.19 Mkt. yr. 113 359 38 510 175 190 62 427 83 2.90 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 83 400 45 528 175 215 35 425 103 2.75-3.15 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 36 28 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 125 201 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.47 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.49 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 28 30 0.3 58 112 1.94 Mkt. yr. 101 162 85 347 125 150 2 277 71 1.65 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 71 175 85 331 125 135 2 262 69 1.75-2.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------Million ---------------------- Mil. Tons 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.3 6.8 0.3 0.5 53.9 -2.2 51.7 Dec-Feb 36.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 39.4 0.1 39.5 Mar-May 29.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 32.5 -2.0 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.8 1.4 2.0 1.3 27.5 8.1 35.6 Mkt. yr. 134.5 11.9 3.8 3.2 153.4 3.9 157.3 82.7 1.90 % Change 8.6 25.3 -23.5 -8.4 8.2 -37.9 6.2 2.5 3.62 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.3 5.6 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.6 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.5 10.2 35.7 Mkt. yr. 119.5 11.5 5.9 3.4 140.3 9.6 149.8 84.0 1.78 % Change -11.2 -3.4 56.5 7.1 -8.5 145.2 -4.7 1.5 -6.2 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.7 -0.8 56.9 Dec-Feb 38.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 32.2 -0.8 31.4 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.4 1.2 26.4 8.4 34.8 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.0 4.68 2.8 158.1 7.5 165.6 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.7 -12.6 -20.9 -16.3 12.7 -21.6 10.5 0.7 9.7 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.9 4.5 0.6 0.4 50.4 -2.7 47.7 Dec-Feb 34.7 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.3 0.3 37.6 Mkt. yr. 119.4 7.6 3.8 2.2 133.0 3.9 136.9 86.2 1.59 % Change -15.1 -24.1 -19.2 -21.7 -15.9 -48.5 -17.4 1.9 -18.9 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 128.3 11.0 4.7 2.3 146.3 6.8 153.1 85.6 1.79 % Change 7.4 45.0 23.9 5.5 10.0 76.0 11.9 -0.6 12.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Apr Apr Sep-Apr Apr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.3 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.8 158.0 134.2 180.6 131.7 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.5 28.4 27.6 29.3 29.3 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.6 116.8 117.7 117.8 118.1 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 3/ 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 3/ 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1995: Jan 2.22 2.72 4.44 4.63 2.02 2.81 1.46 Feb 2.27 2.72 4.48 4.63 2.06 2.82 1.42 Mar 2.36 2.79 4.63 4.67 2.02 2.85 1.54 Apr 2.41 2.79 4.68 4.08 1.97 NQ 1.62 1996: Jan 3.53 4.00 6.75 7.05 2.94 4.00 2.40 Feb 3.71 4.18 7.25 7.25 3.00 3.47 2.31 Mar 3.92 4.34 7.38 7.50 2.86 NQ 2.47 Apr 4.47 4.80 8.16 8.44 2.99 NQ 2.56 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Revised. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal 44% seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm protein meal 41% feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, protein IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------$/---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 Monthly: 1995: Jan 145.10 106.75 82.20 230.50 176.25 105.60 60.00 89.00 Feb 149.40 97.50 81.00 221.25 181.00 97.00 62.50 89.00 Mar 145.70 100.30 82.10 215.60 180.75 93.75 73.90 89.00 Apr 151.00 98.10 77.40 206.25 160.60 93.50 55.75 89.40 1996: Jan 220.50 208.80 127.00 351.00 236.50 144.80 131.20 87.80 Feb 216.70 202.80 122.10 342.50 217.60 144.00 118.70 88.20 Mar 215.70 195.60 122.00 341.25 216.50 145.00 128.90 89.10 Apr 237.90 206.25 127.40 336.50 212.90 156.60 148.00 94.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose Cereals and -----Alcohol--- & other Total Year HFCS dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.23 55.79 61.71 112.23 20.69 29.42 378.08 Dec-Feb 95.00 49.58 57.60 119.33 20.47 29.10 371.07 Mar-May 117.68 56.79 61.57 112.44 20.92 29.74 399.15 Jun-Aug 131.28 60.89 62.66 114.26 20.92 29.74 419.74 Mkt year 442.18 223.05 243.54 458.26 83.00 118.00 1,568.04 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.05 58.79 62.63 134.45 20.84 29.42 410.18 Dec-Feb 99.91 51.52 60.12 141.50 20.61 29.10 402.76 Mar-May 123.28 58.49 61.45 137.73 21.07 29.74 431.77 Jun-Aug 134.77 62.41 62.65 119.11 21.07 29.74 429.75 Mkt year 462.01 231.21 246.84 532.79 83.60 118.00 1,674.45 1995/96 Sep-Nov 109.26 60.66 61.02 121.12 20.32 29.42 401.80 Dec-Feb 104.43 52.89 56.37 120.82 20.10 29.10 383.71 Mkt year 485.00 240.00 240.00 415.00 81.50 118.00 1,579.50 1996/97 Mkt year 505.00 250.00 250.00 447.00 84.00 119.00 1,655.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 2/ 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 Monthly 1995: Feb 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.80 12.20 Mar 13.13 10.58 25.50 11.80 12.32 Apr 13.17 10.62 25.50 11.80 12.65 May 13.22 10.67 25.50 11.80 12.89 1996: Feb 17.36 13.26 25.50 13.15 15.11 Mar 17.87 13.77 25.50 13.15 15.50 Apr 19.46 15.36 25.50 13.15 16.19 May 3/ 20.28 16.19 25.50 13.15 17.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-Mar Mkt. yr. Sep-Mar Sep-Mar ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 8,213 15,849 8,939 8,985 Taiwan 5,077 3,692 6,027 3,445 3,593 Former USSR 2,909 2,821 140 55 27 South Africa 12 12 187 29 339 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 262 449 287 298 EU 1,765 1,064 2,836 1,446 2,206 Egypt 1,553 939 2,569 1,504 1,468 Canada 603 207 1,096 488 376 China 0 0 3,240 1,098 2,207 East Europe 48 48 112 67 166 Algeria 1,176 791 1,000 839 375 S. Korea 508 141 8,005 4,572 5,372 Mexico 1,468 289 2,985 2,058 3,091 Others 5,813 3,708 10,723 6,493 7,923 Total 33,649 22,187 55,218 31,318 36,426 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 1,578 2,557 1,518 901 Japan 1,640 1,264 2,050 1,435 1,261 Others 432 330 1,008 653 1,298 Total 5,044 3,171 5,615 3,606 3,459 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Mar Mkt. yr. June-Mar June-Mar BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 344 5 203 135 373 Israel 335 266 468 427 42 Jordan 251 251 51 51 0 Others 504 446 671 598 773 Total 1,433 969 1,392 1,210 1,189 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Mar Mkt. yr. June-Mar June-Mar ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,011 824 1,161 973 1,204 Finland 526 440 374 374 22 Sweden 303 268 70 70 62 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,840 1,531 1,605 1,417 1,289 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 453 312 715 551 558 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 453 312 716 551 559 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 1,098 705 702 632 109 Other 5 0 16 16 6 Total 1/ 1,103 705 719 648 115 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END