FEED OUTLOOK October 15, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-1096. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1996 Corn Crop Forecast Raised to 9 Billion Bushels o Sorghum Production Up 33 Million Bushels o 1996/97 Corn Export Prospects Slip o 1995/96 Stocks and Disappearance Estimated for Corn and Sorghum 1996/97 FEED GRAIN SUPPLY FORECAST UP 2 PERCENT Improved prospects for the corn and sorghum crops have bolstered the supply outlook for feed grains. Only minor adjustments were made for barley and oats. Feed grain supplies are forecast at 277 million metric tons, up 6 million from last month, while projected use is up only marginally. A 3-million-ton increase in domestic use is nearly offset by a 2.5-million-ton drop in exports. The prospective supply increase will permit some rebuilding of stocks, along with a reduction in expected prices. Ending stocks of feed grains for 1996/97 are projected at 27.8 million tons, up 25 percent from a month ago, and nearly double those of 1995/96. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED 208 MILLION BUSHELS The 1996 corn harvest is forecast at 9,012 million bushels, up 2 percent from September because of improved yield prospects. Compared with 1995, the crop will be 22 percent larger. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are forecast at 123 bushels per acre, up 2.8 bushels from last month. Expected yields and production were up across most of the Midwest. A record ear count per acre is indicated for the seven States where objective yield surveys are made, surpassing the previous record of 1992. As of October 6, only 14 percent of the crop had been harvested in the major producing States, compared with the 5-year average of 24 percent. Although crop maturity remains behind normal, crop conditions generally improved in September. As of the beginning of October, most of the Corn Belt remained frost free. Forecast corn production in North Carolina was reduced 8 percent this month, about 7 million bushels, reflecting the impact of Hurricane Fran in early September. SORGHUM CROP FORECAST UP 4 PERCENT TO 797 MILLION BUSHELS The U.S. sorghum crop is forecast at 797 million bushels, up 33 million from a month ago, and 73 percent greater than 1995. Like corn, the expected increase also reflects better yields in many States. The U.S. average yield forecast is raised 2.8 bushels to 66.4 bushels per acre. Kansas accounts for most of this month's production increase, followed by Texas and Nebraska. Sorghum output in Kansas is expected to be record high, and about double last year's crop. Although crop maturity is around normal, only 32 percent of the U.S. crop was harvested as of October 6, compared with an average of 40 percent. BARLEY AND OATS CROP ESTIMATES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE Estimates of barley and oats production were released in the September 30 Small Grains 1996 Summary. Barley production is estimated at 397 million bushels, up 1 percent from the September forecast, because of slightly higher harvested area and yields. The average yield per acre was 58.5 bushels, up 0.2 bushels. Compared to 1995, production is up 10 percent, with North Dakota, the largest producing State, accounting for most of the gain. Idaho surpassed Montana as the second largest producing State in 1996, although output was down in both. Oats production in 1996 is estimated at 155 million bushels, 2 percent less than the last forecast made in August. While harvested area rose slightly, average yields dropped 1.2 bushels to 57.8 bushels per acre. U.S. production is 4 percent below 1995 and the lowest on record, continuing the long-term declining trend. South Dakota was the largest producing State in 1996, followed by North Dakota, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. DROP IN ALFALFA HAY PRODUCTION OFFSETS INCREASE IN OTHER HAY Alfalfa hay production in 1996 is currently forecast at 80.7 million tons, down 5 percent from last year. Acres harvested were only down 1 percent, but yields were down 4 percent from 1995's 3.46 tons per acre. Dry conditions late in the season reduced yields from second and third cuttings in most of the northern half of the U.S. In the southern U.S., however, mild temperatures and ample precipitation during August and September led to additional cuttings and helped boost yields. California, which boosted both acreage and yields in 1996, is expected to have its highest yield on record. In Texas, yields of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures are up 14 percent from last year, offsetting the 6-percent decline in acreage. Kansas yields are up 13 percent from 1995's 3.8 tons per acre, but Oklahoma yields are forecast down 3 percent. Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota, among others, saw yields decline. All other hay production is forecast at 71.1 million tons, 2 percent above last year. Acres harvested were up 3 percent from last year but yields were down 1 percent from 1995's 1.96 tons per acre. Favorable growing conditions late in the season helped yields, especially in Louisiana and Oklahoma where yields are forecast above last year. Texas will have increased production because additional acreage has offset lower yields. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAU's) in 1996/97 are expected to be down 2 percent from the 78 million in 1995/96. Hay supplies for 1996/97 at 173 million tons are also down 2 percent from 1995/96. The supply of hay per RCAU is expected to total 2.25 tons, about the same as the 2.24 tons in 1995/96. We do not have survey data on the quality of the hay crop, and those areas that had a wet spring may have lower quality hay than usual if the hay got wet or too mature before cutting. DOMESTIC CORN USE UP BUT EXPORTS FALL, STOCKS TO GROW Corn supply in 1996/97 is forecast at 9,448 million bushels, up 225 million from last month, reflecting a larger carryin and the bigger crop. Projected use is down fractionally, as a decline in exports slightly outweighs gains in domestic use. As a result, ending stocks are projected at 903 million bushels, up 235 million from a month ago. With the larger supply, feed and residual use of corn is forecast up 75 million bushels this month to 4,925 million. (Feed and residual use of sorghum was raised 25 million bushels and barley 10 million, while oats was reduced 10 million.) Food, seed, and industrial use of corn was raised 15 million bushels to 1,670 million. The projected stocks-to-use ratio in 1996/97 is 10.6 percent, up sharply from last year's very low 5 percent, but still below 11.2 percent in 1993/94. Total use in 1996/97 is expected to rise only modestly compared to the previous year, causing stocks to more than double. Nonetheless, stocks will remain well below 1994/95. FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN TO INCREASE IN 1996/97 Food and industrial use of corn in 1995/96 was down 7 percent from 1994/95, because the high corn prices caused ethanol producers to cut back. Fuel ethanol production in 1995/96 is estimated to have used 396 million bushels of corn, down from the record 533 million in 1994/95. Ethanol producers were squeezed when corn prices rose but gasoline prices and competing oxygenates did not rise. Thus, ethanol prices could not rise to offset the increased cost of production, forcing producers to cut output. In areas with ethanol mandates, gasoline suppliers had to scramble this summer to find ethanol for blending. With the new crop harvest, corn prices have slipped from their past highs and ethanol producers are beginning to restart plants and ethanol production has increased. In 1996/97, corn used to produce ethanol may total 450 million bushels, up 14 percent from 1995/96, but still below that used in 1994/95. High corn prices in 1995/96 also cut corn used for starch production 3 percent from the year earlier. In 1996/97, corn used for starch production will likely rebound as corn prices slip. Production may be up 5 percent from the 219 million bushels used in 1995/96. In 1995/96, corn used to make corn sweeteners continued to rise even with the high corn prices. High fructose corn sweetener (HFCS) was up 4 percent from the year earlier and glucose and dextrose production was up 3 percent. Additional capacity and strong demand from the soft drink industry have kept corn used in sweetener production increasing. There is no reason to believe demand will slip in 1996/97 and production is expected to increase 5 percent for HFCS and 3 percent for glucose and dextrose. The latest data available for corn used in beverage production is February, before corn prices peaked. In September 1995-February 1996, corn used in beverage production was up 42 percent from the 49 million bushels used the year before because of strong exports of beverage alcohol. Currently some of our trading partners have begun taking steps to slow beverage alcohol imports and the estimate of corn used for beverages in 1996/97 is expected to decline 9 percent from 1995/96. FEED DEMAND REMAINS STRONG Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1995/96 totaled 141 million metric tons, down 15 percent from 1994/95. In 1996/97, feed and residual use may total 152 million metric tons, up nearly 8 percent from last year. In 1995/96, the number of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) was slightly higher than 1994/1995. GCAU's in 1996/97 are expected to total 86 million units, up from 85 million a year earlier. The increases are from cattle on feed, hogs, and the poultry sector. The Hogs and Pigs report released on September 27, 1996 indicated producers intended to have about the same number of sows farrow in September-November 1996 as in the previous year. Producers reported a 7-percent reduction in sows farrowing during June-August period. However, with the number of pigs per litter up 3 percent, the pig crop was only down 5 percent from a year earlier. Farrowing intentions for December 1996-February 1997 are down 1 percent from the year earlier. Broiler producers continue to expand output. Broiler meat output for 1996 is expected to be up 6 percent from 1995's 25 billion pounds. In 1997, broiler meat production may increase another 5 percent from 1996. Turkey meat production in 1996 is expected to increase 6 percent from the year earlier, but in 1997, output may only rise 1 percent. Egg production is expected to be up 3 percent from 1995, but the average number of hens was up only 1 percent. In 1997, egg production may increase another 3 percent. Milk production in the 22 monthly reporting States was down 3 percent from a year earlier in June, 2 percent in July, and 1 percent in August. For these 3 months, cow numbers were down a steady 1 percent from the prior year. Grain and other concentrates fed on July 1, 1996 (latest data available) were 18.3 pounds, the same as July 1, 1995. Cattle on feed on September 1 in the historic 7 monthly States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more were down 8 percent from the previous year. Placements during August were up 19 percent from last year. With plentiful supplies of sorghum and lower prices for corn, more cattle are likely to be placed on feed. CORN EXPORT FORECAST FOR 1996/97 REDUCED The forecast of U.S. corn exports was cut 100 million bushels this month to 1,950 million. This largely reflects an expected reduction in corn imports by South Korea because of higher feed wheat imports. While global wheat production is up sharply this year and export prices are falling, the potential for trade in wheat for feed is mainly linked to crop damage in Canada, where some wheat is expected to be downgraded to feed quality because prolonged wet conditions have delayed the harvest of mature wheat. U.S. export sales commitments for 1996/97 are relatively strong. The pace of early season shipments, however, has been very slow. Export inspections for the first 6 weeks of the year have been down dramatically from last year's frenetic pace when importers scrambled to procure shrinking corn supplies. This year importers are better covered and global grain supplies are also more abundant. China's 1996 corn production forecast was boosted 3 million tons to a record 117 million. However, there was no change in China's corn trade projections, which assume small imports and exports of 500,000 tons. Although there is a reported exportable surplus of corn in China's northeastern provinces, there are still no firm indications that larger exports will proceed. China missed an excellent export opportunity this spring when international prices were record high. But even with export prices declining in recent weeks, China's export intentions are likely to remain uncertain over the next several weeks as it completes its harvest. FEED GRAIN PRICE FORECASTS TRIMMED, BUT STILL RELATIVELY HIGH Final season average prices for 1995/96 corn and sorghum, weighted by marketings, were record high at $3.24 and $3.19, respectively. The season average farm price of corn in 1996/97 is forecast at $2.80-3.20 per bushel, down 20 cents at each end from last month, while the sorghum price forecast was cut 25 cents to $2.55-2.95 per bushel. The season average forecast barley price for 1996/97 was reduced 25 cents to $2.45-2.85 per bushel, and that of oats was cut 20 cents to $1.65-2.05 per bushel. Feed grain prices have continued to decline in recent weeks as harvests progress and corn and sorghum crop expectations rise. For the first time in over a year, the nearby futures contract for corn (December) fell under $3.00 at the end of September. Central Illinois cash prices also slipped to under $3.00 per bushel by the end of September after averaging $3.91 for September 1995 to August 1996. In August, average prices received by farmers for corn declined 13 cents per bushel to $4.30, the first monthly drop in 21 months. Farm prices continued to drop in September to a preliminary $3.58, but this was still 89 cents higher than September 1995. Seasonal price lows typically are made around harvest, but this year's pattern will be difficult to predict. One of the unknowns is the extent of farmer hedging and contracting done at the higher price levels that prevailed during the spring and summer. In 1995/96, the farm price of corn consistently trailed cash prices, reflecting arrangements made before the sharp price runup. 1995/96 CORN STOCKS: 426 MILLION BUSHELS, SORGHUM 18 MILLION Old-crop corn stored in all positions on September 1, 1996 totaled 426 million bushels, down 73 percent from a year earlier. These were the lowest ending stocks since 400 million bushels in 1976 (when stocks were counted on October 1). Stocks of old-crop sorghum on September 1 were estimated at 18 million bushels, 74 percent lower than the year before, and the lowest ending stocks since 1952/53. Corn disappearance for the 1995/96 marketing year was 8,522 million bushels, down 9 percent from the 1994/95 record, but the second highest ever. Disappearance for the June-August quarter totaled 1,295 million bushels, down sharply from the previous quarter and the lowest fourth quarter since 1985/86. There were very sharp declines in feed and residual and exports. (The breakout among categories of use is subject to slight changes, pending final trade data for August and some final industrial use estimates.) ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * T.Q. Hutchinson, transportation analyst, retired this month. * * The next Feed Outlook will be released November 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** NOTE: THE ANNUAL FEED YEARBOOK IS NOW SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 1997. Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 380 1,703 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 376 1,243 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 418 955 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 418 800 293 1,511 850 2.34 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,591 4,700 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 406 2,019 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 406 1,496 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 445 1,167 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 434 854 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,691 5,536 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 409 1,760 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 387 1,362 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 416 1,061 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 542 383 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 17 8,949 1,583 4,725 2,215 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 426 9,012 10 9,448 1,670 4,925 1,950 8,545 903 2.80-3.20 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 1 223 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 1 109 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 1 83 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 1 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 4 456 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 1 55 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 1 8 43 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 4 310 200 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 18 797 0 815 4 525 225 754 61 2.55-2.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 37 28 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 34 87 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 53 43 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 166 250 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 44 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 36 32 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 36 53 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 51 27 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 166 235 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 42 113 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 37 30 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 34 19 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 166 185 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 100 397 45 541 166 235 35 436 105 2.45-2.85 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 35 29 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 124 202 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 27 30 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 34 21 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 123 152 2 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 66 155 85 307 120 115 3 238 69 1.65-2.05 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------Million metric tons -------------- Mil. Tons 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.2 5.7 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.6 2.8 1.9 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.8 -0.7 27.1 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.6 10.2 35.8 Mkt. yr. 119.4 11.6 6.1 3.4 140.4 9.6 150.0 84.0 1.79 % Change -10.7 -3.1 58.1 7.1 -8.0 145.2 -4.2 1.5 -5.6 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 38.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.5 1.2 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.2 4.91 2.8 158.5 7.4 166.0 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.8 -12.4 -19.4 -15.8 12.9 -22.4 10.6 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.7 4.5 0.7 0.4 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.6 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.3 0.3 37.7 Mar-May 27.0 1.4 0.5 0.3 29.2 -1.8 27.3 Jun-Aug 13.8 0.2 3.1 0.9 18.0 10.9 28.9 Mkt. yr. 120.0 7.9 4.7 2.2 134.7 6.8 141.5 84.9 1.67 % Change -14.7 -22.5 -4.9 -24.1 -15.0 -9.1 -14.8 0.7 -15.4 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 125.1 13.3 4.1 2.1 144.6 7.5 152.1 85.9 1.77 % Change 4.2 69.5 -12.2 -3.2 7.4 10.3 7.5 1.1 6.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Aug Aug Sep-Aug Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 2.9 4.2 NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.8 160.8 223.8 151.5 80.7 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.5 28.5 30.7 27.1 20.6 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.6 116.6 114.9 116.7 116.5 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3/ 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 Monthly: 1995: May 2.50 2.84 4.93 4.27 2.11 NQ 1.76 Jun 2.65 3.04 5.26 4.97 2.22 3.15 1.73 Jul 2.79 3.23 5.61 5.41 2.25 3.69 1.92 Aug 2.68 3.21 5.53 5.38 2.09 3.22 1.96 1996: May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 Jun 4.74 4.99 8.57 7.95 3.22 3.28 2.11 Jul 4.70 5.07 8.35 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 88.20 Monthly: 1995: May 148.10 92.75 78.50 196.50 159.60 98.00 49.70 95.30 Jun 149.10 108.75 79.90 208.10 161.60 98.90 63.61 91.60 Jul 160.10 116.90 81.90 218.75 159.80 101.00 61.80 89.60 Aug 157.50 116.50 79.40 232.00 157.40 NQ 71.90 87.00 1996: May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 102.40 Jun 227.90 192.20 122.10 315.00 231.80 190.00 127.80 96.90 Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 96.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.5 55.8 56.4 112.2 27.7 29.4 380.1 Dec-Feb 95.3 49.6 52.7 119.3 29.9 29.1 375.8 Mar-May 118.0 56.7 56.3 112.4 24.9 29.7 398.2 Jun-Aug 131.8 60.8 57.3 114.3 23.2 29.7 417.1 Mkt year 443.6 222.9 222.7 458.3 105.8 118.0 1571.3 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 29.4 405.8 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 29.1 405.5 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.2 29.7 430.1 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 29.7 430.8 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.0 118.0 1672.1 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 29.4 409.4 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 29.1 396.9 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 25.0 29.7 393.1 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.4 29.7 363.1 Mkt year 482.2 237.0 219.3 395.7 110.3 118.0 1562.5 1996/97 Mkt year 505.0 245.0 230.0 450.0 100.0 120.0 1650.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1995: Jun 13.59 11.04 25.50 11.80 13.22 Jul 13.85 11.30 25.50 11.70 13.64 Aug 13.80 11.25 25.50 11.80 13.85 Sep 2/ 14.34 11.80 25.50 11.80 13.67 1996: Jun 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 Jul 20.45 16.35 25.50 13.15 18.65 Aug 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 Sep 2/ 20.38 16.29 25.50 13.15 18.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-July Mkt. yr. Sep-July Sep-July ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 11,362 15,849 14,649 14,178 Taiwan 5,077 4,739 6,027 5,668 5,587 Former USSR 2,909 2,904 140 140 27 South Africa 12 12 187 161 347 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 348 449 416 319 EU 1,765 1,644 2,836 2,569 2,835 Egypt 1,553 1,307 2,569 2,274 2,137 Canada 603 528 1,096 952 711 China 0 0 3,240 2,698 2,207 East Europe 48 48 112 112 188 Algeria 1,176 1,101 1,000 944 522 S. Korea 508 356 8,005 7,145 7,855 Mexico 1,468 1,232 2,985 2,625 6,156 Others 5,813 5,186 10,723 9,539 10,642 Total 33,649 30,768 55,218 49,891 53,709 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 2,607 2,557 2,262 1,578 Japan 1,640 1,454 2,050 1,964 1,478 Others 432 578 1,008 979 1,505 Total 5,044 4,639 5,615 5,205 4,561 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-July Mkt. yr. June-July June-July BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 0 373 0 0 Israel 468 86 42 42 7 Jordan 51 51 0 0 0 Others 671 107 932 205 91 Total 1,392 243 1,347 247 98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-July Mkt. yr. June-July June-July ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 179 1,302 316 70 Finland 374 49 22 8 0 Sweden 70 26 62 62 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 254 1,387 386 70 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 158 740 163 115 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 159 740 163 115 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 222 141 50 37 Other 16 10 6 0 0 Total 1/ 719 232 147 50 37 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census. END-OF-FILE