FEED OUTLOOK December 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-1296. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Export Projection Reduced, Stocks Raised 50 Million Bushels o Corn and Sorghum Price Projections Lowered o Use of Corn for Ethanol Begins To Recover LITTLE CHANGE IN FEED GRAIN OUTLOOK THIS MONTH No new U.S. production estimates were released this month, but there were some adjustments in forecast supply and use because of changes in trade. Projected ending stocks of corn in 1996/97 are up 50 million bushels due to a reduction in exports. Forecast barley imports were reduced 5 million bushels, with a corresponding drop in ending stocks. The forecast of oats imports was increased 5 million bushels and the additional supply placed in feed and residual use. The total feed grain outlook is essentially unchanged, as the decline in projected use slightly outweighs the minor decrease in supply. The corn harvest is virtually complete, with 96 percent of the crop harvested as of December 1, just above the average of 95 percent. The only State where the harvest is much behind average is Ohio, with 85 percent complete. December is normally a slow period for the feed grain market, and activities should pick up at the start of the new year. USDA will release final crop production estimates on January 10, along with estimates of grain stocks as of December 1. Market conditions are dramatically different from a year ago because of a sharp rebound in feed grain supplies, forecast up more than 10 percent from 1995/96. Ending stocks are expected to more than double from the extremely low point reached at the end of 1995/96. While total feed grain use is projected to rise only 3 percent in 1996/97, it would still be second only to the record high in 1994/95, and about equal to 1992/93. SLOW SALES DROP U.S. CORN EXPORT FORECAST 50 MILLION BUSHELS Projected ending stocks of corn in 1996/97 were raised 50 million bushels this month to 1,157 million because of lower exports. U.S. corn exports are forecast at 1,900 million bushels, down 50 million from last month and 15 percent less than exported a year ago. Prospects for U.S. corn exports were reduced because of lower imports forecast for Brazil, Mexico, and Japan. Mexico is expected to import less corn and sorghum due to increased production from last year. Japan is increasing the portion of sorghum used in mixed feeds and boosting imports of sorghum (offsetting the decline in demand from Mexico), but this is expected to result in smaller corn imports. Brazil's corn production forecast was increased this month, reducing import prospects. The 1996/97 forecast of foreign coarse grain production was raised 1.8 million tons this month, with increased corn production in Brazil and Hungary and barley production in Kazakstan. Compared with 1995/96, foreign coarse grain production is forecast up 5 percent, while consumption is only expected to increase 1 percent, resulting in a rise in foreign stocks. World coarse grain trade is expected to decline 3 percent. Reduced global imports and increased competitor exports of barley and feed wheat are expected to reduce U.S. corn export prospects. World corn trade in 1996/97 is forecast down 7 percent from a year ago. Although foreign corn production is forecast up 3 percent, foreign corn exports are expected to share in the drop in world corn trade, declining 4 percent. According to U.S. Export Sales, corn shipments from September 1 through December 5 lagged year-earlier levels by 30 percent, and outstanding sales were 25 percent less than a year ago. However, last year corn export marketing started out unusually strong. In 1994, corn shipments through the first week of December were only 2 percent greater than this year, and outstanding sales at that time were 8 percent lower. Corn exports in 1994/95 started slowly, but reached 2,177 million bushels for the year, after the sales pace accelerated in later months following China's ban on corn exports. U.S. BARLEY IMPORT FORECAST REDUCED, OATS IMPORTS UP The forecast for U.S. barley imports in 1996/97 was reduced 5 million bushels to 40 million. Although barley production is up sharply to a record in Canada, the pace of shipments from Canada to the United States has been slower than expected, with Canada shipping mostly to other markets. The U.S. barley export forecast was unchanged this month at 35 million bushels, but down sharply from last year. Japan is buying more barley from Canada, but increased shipments of malting barley to Mexico have limited the overall decline in U.S. barley exports. Last year, Japan became the largest importer of U.S. barley when short supplies limited Canada's exports, causing Japan to turn to the United States. The U.S. oats import forecast was increased 5 million bushels as the pace of imports picked up in September when new-crop supplies from Canada became available. Preliminary Canadian data indicate that exports to the United States will continue large in October and November. In addition, some shipments of oats from Scandinavia are also expected in coming months. SIGNS OF RECOVERY IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1996/97 is forecast to total 1,670 million bushels, unchanged from last month and up 5.5 percent from 1995/96. Use at this level in 1996/97 would represent 17 percent of total supply, down from 18 percent in 1995/96 when supply was lower. The short crop in 1995 strengthened prices and cut industrial use of corn, with all the reductions in ethanol and starch. In 1996/97, corn use is expected to rebound for both categories. With corn in short supply and prices high, corn used in ethanol bottomed out in June and July 1996 at about 19 million bushels in each month, way down from the peak of 49 million in January 1995. After slight gains in August and September, production in October rebounded and used 38 million bushels. With corn prices declining and byproduct feeds not declining as rapidly, net corn costs (corn prices less the value of the byproducts) for wet millers have dropped to $1.23 per bushel in October, down from a high of $3.08 in July. Net corn costs for dry mill ethanol producers peaked in May at $3.23 per bushel, and were $1.40 in October 1996. Dry mill producers sell fewer byproducts so net corn costs are usually higher. However, dry millers get a higher ethanol yield from each bushel of corn. By October, net corn costs had retreated to near their early 1995 levels. In recent weeks, fuel ethanol prices have declined from their summer highs, and gasoline prices have been strong. This is expected to lead to more ethanol blending which will keep ethanol in the marketing channel and in competition with MTBE. Many times when products leave the market, consumers switch to alternatives and the product has to buy its market back, usually a costly proposition. Ethanol may have avoided this pitfall, partly because methanol to produce MTBE has become more costly also. Starch production was down in 1995/96 partly because of higher input prices but also because of the paper market. Paper production was down as users apparently were working off supplies laid in when prices were rising. Users could also switch types of starch but it is not known how much of that has been done. Starch use should begin to increase in 1996/97 as paper production stabilizes and the economy continues to grow. Corn sweeteners continued to use more corn even in the face of high 1995/96 prices. Although beverages continue to be the major use, sweeteners are used in more food products to make them taste better, to give texture, and to give other desired properties as fats are cut back. Chemists can customize corn sweeteners for many applications, such as different degrees of sweetness and taste properties. These properties are also useful in producing processed foods that are or appear "freshly" made or like "homemade" products. As a result, per capita sweetener use continues to increase faster than the rate of growth in the population. UPDATE ON FEED AND RESIDUAL USE Feed and residual use in 1996/97 of the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) is expected to total 146 million tons, up from 134 million in 1995/96. If wheat is included, the total is expected to reach 154 million tons in 1996/97, up from 141 million. Corn comprises the biggest share of the total at 87 percent in 1996/97 and 89 percent in 1995/96. The large grain sorghum crop in 1996 will boost the percent of sorghum use to 9 percent, from 6 percent in 1995/96. Grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) in 1996/97 are expected to be up 2 percent from the 84.9 million units in 1995/96. With the lower cost of grain, more cattle are entering feedlots at a younger age and will likely consume more grain than had they remained on pasture longer. Strong corn prices caused a decline in pig crops in the spring from a year ago. The fall pig crop is expected to be down from a year ago if producers carried through with their intentions. As corn prices have moderated, many analysts expect hog producers to begin increasing production. If so, then more grain will be needed for these animals, but part of that will come from next year's crop. The poultry sector is strongly affected by grain prices. Broiler producers either cut production slightly or slowed rates of expansion earlier than other livestock sectors. This helped to support product prices and partly offset the higher grain prices. Continued strong demand for grain is expected by the poultry industry. PRICE OUTLOOK WEAKENS FOR CORN AND SORGHUM The drop in projected corn exports and increase in stocks led to a slight drop in expected prices from a month ago. The forecast of the 1996/97 season average farm price was reduced 10 cents on the top end of the range to $2.50-2.80 per bushel. In November, the average farm price of corn declined for the fourth straight month to a preliminary $2.64, the lowest since August 1995. Cash and futures prices for corn were relatively flat in the last few weeks, rebounding slightly after steep declines from summer highs that continued into early November. Most futures contracts for the 1996/97 marketing year were trading around $2.65 per bushel by early December. Despite slipping expectations in recent weeks, the 1996/97 price would still rank well ahead of most recent years, excluding the 1995/96 record. From 1990 to 1994, the farm price of corn averaged $2.30 per bushel. The sharp increase in sorghum supplies this year, coinciding with the increase in corn, is putting strong downward pressure on prices. A larger reduction was made in the sorghum farm price forecast this month, down 5 cents at the low end and 10 cents at the top end to $2.15-2.45 per bushel. During the first 3 months of the marketing year, sorghum prices received by farmers nationally have averaged just 85 percent of corn. In contrast, sorghum prices averaged 102 percent of corn in the first 3 months of 1995/96 when the feed grain situation was tightening. TIMING OF FARM SALES IMPORTANT INFLUENCE ON CORN PRICE The timing of sales and the extent to which producers price crops in advance of harvest play an important role in determining the season average price of corn. In 1995/96, a larger than normal share of corn was marketed early in the year, and prior to the dramatic runup in prices. In the first 3 months of 1995/96, 38.1 percent of the corn was marketed, the largest share in data checked back to 1980. The 15-year average was 32.1 percent. In addition, a substantial amount was contracted before prices rallied, and, even when delivered later in the year, this corn was priced far below spot prices. With strong prices prevailing most of the summer, there were opportunities to hedge or lock in attractive prices for 1996/97. While farmers in southern States realized strong premiums for their early delivered corn, anecdotal evidence suggests that elsewhere a large portion of the crop has not yet been sold. Reports of slower farm sales than normal apparently reflect a backlash against last year's experience. (There are no public data on the amount of contracting or other sales arrangements.) If marketings are later than usual, it's not entirely clear what the price impact would be. Using current futures prices as an indicator results in only a minor change in the season average because contracts are trading in a relatively narrow range. However, heavier than normal sales in the winter or spring months would tend to depress prices. On the other hand, if a more significant quantity of corn was priced in advance, this would tend to support the annual weighted average price received by farmers. Another factor will be expectations about 1997. Corn prices typically bottom out around harvest and then slowly rise in the following months, peaking in midsummer before the next harvest. This seasonal pattern usually does not hold in years preceding a large crop. If the market anticipates large acreage for 1997, prices may start to decline by early spring. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released January 13, 1997. * ****************************************************************************** NOTE: THE ANNUAL FEED YEARBOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 1997. Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 380 1,703 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 376 1,243 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 418 955 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 418 800 293 1,511 850 2.34 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,591 4,700 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 406 2,019 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 406 1,497 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 445 1,167 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 434 854 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,690 5,537 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 409 1,760 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 397 1,352 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 411 1,066 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 366 533 396 1,294 426 4.31 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,583 4,711 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 426 9,265 10 9,702 1,670 4,975 1,900 8,545 1,157 2.50-2.80 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 1 223 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 1 109 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 1 83 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 1 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 4 456 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.36 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 1 55 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 1 10 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 4 312 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 18 820 0 839 1 245 60 306 533 2.15-2.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 37 28 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 34 87 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 53 43 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 166 250 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 44 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 36 32 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 36 53 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 51 27 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 166 235 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 42 113 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 38 30 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 34 19 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 166 185 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 100 397 40 536 166 235 35 436 100 2.50-2.70 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 146 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 35 29 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 124 202 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 27 30 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 34 21 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 123 152 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 66 155 90 312 120 120 3.0 243 69 1.75-1.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------Million metric tons -------------- Mil. Tons 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.2 5.7 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.6 2.8 1.9 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.8 -0.7 27.1 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.6 10.2 35.8 Mkt. yr. 119.4 11.6 6.1 3.4 140.4 9.6 150.0 84.0 1.79 % Change -10.7 -3.1 58.1 7.1 -8.0 145.2 -4.2 1.5 -5.6 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 38.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.5 1.2 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.2 4.91 2.8 158.5 7.4 166.0 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.8 -12.4 -19.4 -15.8 12.9 -22.4 10.6 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.7 4.5 0.7 0.4 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.1 0.3 37.4 Mar-May 27.1 1.4 0.5 0.3 29.3 -1.8 27.5 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.1 0.9 17.8 10.4 28.1 Mkt. yr. 119.7 7.9 4.6 2.1 134.4 6.2 140.6 84.9 1.66 % Change -14.9 -22.0 -5.7 -24.5 -15.3 -16.4 -15.3 0.7 -15.9 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 126.4 13.3 4.1 2.2 146.0 8.0 154.0 86.3 1.79 % Change 5.6 68.4 -10.8 2.0 8.7 28.6 9.6 1.6 7.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994/95 --------------1995/96------ --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Oc Oct Sept-Oct Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 3.8 3.7 NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.4 215.5 206.1 136.6 157.0 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 28.2 30.5 29.8 21.4 24.9 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.1 117.2 117.3 119.9 123.7 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3/ 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 Monthly: 1995: Jul 2.79 3.23 5.61 5.41 2.25 3.69 1.92 Aug 2.68 3.21 5.53 5.38 2.09 3.22 1.96 Sep 2.83 3.32 5.84 5.78 2.06 3.58 2.04 Oct 3.12 3.57 6.15 6.22 2.58 3.69 2.11 1996: Jul 4.70 5.07 8.35 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 Sep 3.39 3.69 6.30 5.89 2.34 3.15 2.08 Oct 2.81 3.27 5.08 5.34 2.10 NQ 2.06 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 88.20 Monthly: 1995: Jul 160.10 116.90 81.90 218.75 159.80 101.00 61.80 89.60 Aug 157.50 116.50 79.40 232.00 157.40 NQ 71.90 87.00 Sep 171.75 137.60 81.60 250.00 166.70 112.00 88.10 86.80 Oct 183.40 153.25 98.40 290.50 221.00 121.70 93.40 87.20 1996: Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 96.00 Sep 265.50 193.10 115.75 329.40 279.80 164.00 115.40 95.70 Oct 238.00 183.25 102.30 344.00 272.10 160.80 103.20 98.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quotes. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.5 55.8 56.4 112.2 27.7 29.4 380.1 Dec-Feb 95.3 49.6 52.7 119.3 29.9 29.1 375.8 Mar-May 118.0 56.7 56.3 112.4 24.9 29.7 398.2 Jun-Aug 131.8 60.8 57.3 114.3 23.2 29.7 417.1 Mkt year 443.6 222.9 222.7 458.3 105.8 118.0 1571.3 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 29.4 405.8 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 29.1 405.5 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.2 29.7 430.1 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 29.7 430.8 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.0 118.0 1672.1 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 29.4 409.4 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 29.1 396.9 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 25.0 29.7 393.1 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.5 29.7 363.2 Mkt year 482.2 237.0 219.3 395.7 110.4 118.0 1562.6 1996/97 Mkt year 505.0 245.0 230.0 450.0 100.0 120.0 1650.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1995: Aug 13.80 11.25 25.50 11.80 13.85 Sep 14.34 11.80 25.50 11.80 13.67 Oct 14.76 12.23 25.50 12.55 13.94 Nov 14.87 12.34 25.50 13.30 14.36 1996: Aug 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 Sep 20.36 16.26 25.50 13.15 18.50 Oct 17.19 13.11 25.50 13.15 15.41 Nov 2/ 16.78 12.70 25.50 13.15 13.58 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Sep-Aug Sep Sep-Aug Sep Sep ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 1,018 15,303 1,276 873 Taiwan 6,027 473 5,938 656 317 Former USSR 140 25 34 0 0 South Africa 187 0 347 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 16 321 69 0 EU 2,836 1 2,842 526 35 Egypt 2,569 166 2,167 206 144 Canada 1,096 97 808 136 78 China 3,240 0 2,207 749 0 East Europe 112 0 188 0 30 Algeria 1,000 154 522 0 45 S. Korea 8,005 157 8,285 1,073 213 Mexico 2,985 248 6,453 429 243 Others 10,723 575 11,077 1,238 563 Total 55,218 2,930 56,494 6,357 2,543 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 303 1,759 290 164 Japan 2,050 213 1,617 150 149 Others 1,008 55 1,591 168 84 Total 5,615 571 4,968 609 398 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Sep Mkt. yr. June-Sep June-Sep BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 0 373 0 0 Israel 468 199 42 42 28 Jordan 51 51 0 0 50 Others 671 244 932 457 290 Total 1,392 494 1,347 499 369 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Sep Mkt. yr. June-Sep June-Sep ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 390 1,302 534 308 Finland 374 117 22 8 0 Sweden 70 26 62 62 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 533 1,387 604 308 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 247 740 215 148 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 247 740 215 148 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 343 141 78 56 Other 16 10 6 0 0 Total 1/ 719 353 147 78 56 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE