FEED OUTLOOK January 13,1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-0197. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Final Corn Crop Estimate Up Slightly at 9.3 Billion Bushels, Sorghum Down at 803 Million Bushels o December 1 Corn Stocks Indicate Brisk Disappearance in First Quarter o Corn Feed and Residual Use Raised, Projected Ending Stocks Reduced o Season Average Price Projections Up for All Feed Grains FEED GRAIN SUPPLY AND USE UP An increase in estimated corn production this month outweighed a reduction in sorghum, raising total feed grain production slightly. There were no changes in final estimates of the barley and oats crops. Forecast feed grain use in 1996/97 was also raised because of larger corn feed and residual use. The prospective increase in feed grain use was greater than the gain in supply, lowering projected ending stocks. Total feed grain production in 1996 was 267.4 million metric tons, up 58 million or 28 percent from the year before. Because of low carryin stocks, the increase in feed grain supplies for 1996/97 was smaller at 11 percent. With the release of final crop estimates, the market will now focus more on demand developments. Total use of feed grains is forecast at 255.2 million tons, up 5 percent from 1995/96, and second only to use in 1994/95, reflecting more abundant supplies and lower prices. Feed grain ending stocks in 1996/97 are projected at 29.3 million tons, more than double the level of the previous year. FINAL CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 9,293 MILLION BUSHELS Corn production in 1996 is estimated at 9,293 million bushels, up 28 million from the last forecast. The average yield was 127.1 bushels per acre, up from 126.5 from last month, while planted and harvested area dropped slightly. Final harvested acres were estimated at 79.487 million. Production estimates actually dropped this month for Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska, the three largest producing States, and several other large producing States. However, these declines were more than offset by gains elsewhere, including many States outside of the main Corn Belt. Compared with the year before, the 1996 crop increased 28 percent and was the third highest on record. The average yield was also the third highest ever. Corn production was record high in a number of States, including Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, and Missouri. A record ear count was indicated for the seven States where objective yield data are collected, surpassing the previous record of 1992. Corn for silage in 1996 was estimated at 83.1 million short tons, up 7 percent from the small 1995 crop. Although area harvested was up slightly nationally, higher yields accounted for most of the production increase. Output was up 44 percent in Wisconsin, the Nation's largest silage State, due entirely to more area cut. Large production gains were also realized in New York and Pennsylvania, the second and third largest producers in 1996. FINAL SORGHUM CROP ESTIMATED AT 803 MILLION BUSHELS The final sorghum crop estimate was 803 million bushels, down 2 percent from the last forecast because of lower yields and lower acreage. The average yield was 67.5 bushels per acre, down 0.9 bushels. Harvested acres were estimated at 11.9 million, down 100,000. Estimated production was reduced in Kansas, Texas, and Missouri, but was raised in most other States. Still, production in Kansas set a record because of a large increase in acreage and excellent yields that equaled the previous high of 1994. Sorghum production was up 75 percent from 1995. This dramatic increase reflected both better yields and a sharp rise in planted acres, from 9.5 million in 1995 to 13.2 million in 1996. In addition to the impact of high prices, the higher acreage reflected extensive replanting of failed wheat acres in Kansas and failed cotton in Texas. DECEMBER 1 CORN STOCKS OF 6.91 BILLION BUSHELS INDICATE LARGE SEPTEMBER- NOVEMBER DISAPPEARANCE Corn stocks on December 1, 1996, were 6,906 million bushels, up 13 percent from the same time a year earlier. On-farm stocks were 4.8 billion bushels, 70 percent of the total, up 21 percent from December 1, 1995. Corn stocks held off-farm were down slightly. Sorghum stocks on December 1, 1996, totaled 460 million bushels, 53 percent higher than a year earlier. On-farm stocks were 145 million bushels, up 83 percent, while off-farm stocks were 316 million, up 42 percent. Implied disappearance of corn for the first quarter (September-November) of the 1996/97 marketing year was 2,817 million bushels. This was just 13 million bushels below last year's first quarter, and the third highest disappearance for any quarter. The exact breakout between categories of use will not be certain until final trade data for November are released later this month. Preliminary estimates show feed and residual use of corn surprisingly high at 1,964 million bushels, exports at 470 million, and feed, seed, and industrial (FSI) use at 383 million. Corn exports were down quite sharply in September-November 1996 from a year earlier, but this slowdown from the first quarter of last year's very robust pace was well documented through inspections and sales data. FSI use was down from 409 in the first quarter of 1995, mainly due to less use of corn for ethanol. Interpretation of stocks to derive use estimates is less straightforward than normal this year, however, because of the unusual market conditions of last summer. Corn supplies were extremely tight and pipeline stocks had virtually been depleted by August. There was likely some feeding of new-crop corn from the southern States prior to the start of the marketing year on September 1. Sorghum disappearance in September-November was 361 million bushels, up 56 percent from the previous year and the highest quarter ever. Pending final trade data for November, exports were estimated at 60 million bushels, up moderately, while feed and residual use of sorghum was up sharply--70 percent--to 300 million bushels. This reflected strong incentives for feeding, particularly in the Southwest. CORN ENDING STOCKS DOWN THIS MONTH AS HIGHER USE OUTSTRIPS LARGER SUPPLY Forecast use of corn in 1996/97 was raised 225 million bushels to 8,770 million. This would be the second highest total after 1994/95's 9,405 million bushels. All of the increase was in feed and residual use, and other use was unchanged. The increase in forecast use was larger than the increase in production, lowering projected ending stocks from 1,157 million bushels to 959 million. Although corn stocks are expected to more than double from last year's low level, they will remain relatively low by historical standards. With prospective use expected to be fairly strong, the stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.9 percent. A month ago, the ratio was projected at 13.5 percent. FEED DEMAND APPEARS STRONG With the pace of use stronger than expected in the first quarter, and limited supplies of sorghum and wheat available for feeding in the remainder of the corn marketing year, the forecast of corn feed and residual use was increased 225 million bushels this month to 5,200 million. Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1996/97 is expected to increase 12 percent from the 141 million tons used in September 1995-August 1996. Feed and residual use in 1995/96 was down 15 percent from the year earlier when a short corn crop boosted prices and forced feeders to cut back. In September-November 1996, feed and residual use totaled 56 million metric tons, up 18 percent from first-quarter 1995/96. Corn, which accounted for 89 percent of feed and residual use in the first quarter, totaled nearly 2 billion bushels of use, up 12 percent from the 1.8 billion bushels used in first-quarter 1995/96. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1996/97 is expected to be up 1 percent from last year's 85 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1996/97 would be 1.8 tons, up from 1.7 tons in 1995/96. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy and hogs are down in 1996/97 and cattle on feed plus poultry are up. The dairy sector has been able to reduce the number of cows but increase output per cow. This means that feed use is probably stronger than suggested by the index. On October 1, 1996, the latest data available, grain and other concentrates fed daily per cow was 18 pounds, down from 18.4 pounds in 1995. The value per 100 pounds of concentrate ration in 1996 was up 19 percent from a year earlier. As concentrate prices decline because of lower-cost feed grains, concentrate use will likely move above last year especially because milk production is forecast to increase 1 percent from the previous year. Beef production in 1997 is expected to be down from 1996. The cattle inventory report published at the end of January will provide more information on numbers and the impacts of last year's high grain prices. The strong grain prices last summer caused hog farmers to cut hog numbers, making the December 1, 1996 hog inventory the lowest since 1990. The breeding inventory was the smallest December 1 number on record. However, the pig crop, which was down 5 percent during the spring and summer quarters, was only down 1 percent in the fall quarter. As a result, the GCAU index for hogs is expected to be down 2 percent from last year. FIRST QUARTER FSI USE DOWN 6 PERCENT FROM 1995/96 The forecast of food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1996/97 was unchanged this month at 1.67 billion bushels, up from 1.58 billion in 1995/96. However, there were small changes among some individual components. FSI use in September-November 1996 was 383 million bushels, down 6 percent from 1995. Corn used to make starch and sweeteners in the first quarter was 1 million bushels above the 226.6 million used in 1995. High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was up strongly from last year, but glucose and dextrose production was lower. Starch production was about the same as last year. As a result, the annual estimates were changed to reflect stronger HFCS production and less increase in the other products. Fuel alcohol use of corn in September-November 1996 was down 17 percent from the 121 million bushels used in 1995. Ethanol production in November was not up as expected in anticipation of the winter oxygenate program, but the forecast for 1996/97 was not changed. HAY SUPPLIES TIGHTER THAN LAST YEAR Hay stocks on December 1 were reported down 4 percent from the 109 million tons available on December 1, 1995. Since hay stocks on May 1 were about the same as a year earlier, the decline in production in 1996 is reflected in the December 1 stocks. Thirty of the 48 contiguous States, mainly northern and western States, had lower stocks. The largest stocks increases occurred in the Atlantic Coast States, the Central Plains States, and Alabama and Mississippi in the Southeast. Supplies of hay and silage, based on December stocks of hay and silage production, are 1 percent larger that last year. The index of roughage consuming animal units is estimated to be down 2 percent for 1996/97, suggesting adequate supplies, other things being equal. The lack of wheat pasture in the Southern Plains and winter storms may lead to tight supplies in some areas. Also, certain types of roughage may be in tight supply, particularly alfalfa hay. Production of all other hay than alfalfa in 1996 was up 1 percent, but alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures were down 6 percent. Yields were down for all types of hay in 1996 with the average down 5 percent. Acreage for alfalfa hay was down 1 percent but acreage of other hay was up 5 percent, helping to offset the decline in yield. As a result, other hay production was up 1 percent from a year earlier to 70 million tons. FEED GRAIN PRICE FORECASTS RAISED The forecast of the 1996/97 season average corn price was boosted 5 cents this month to $2.55 to $2.85 per bushel. A slightly tighter outlook for corn, as indicated by a smaller stocks-to-use ratio, is expected to provide more support to prices. Also, a tighter outlook for soybeans may provide some spillover strength to corn in the next few weeks. Market prices for feed grains were relatively flat in the last few weeks, partly because there was little change in the fundamentals. Corn prices dropped at the end of December in reaction to smaller than expected numbers of hogs and pigs reported by USDA. In November, the average corn price received by farmers was $2.66 per bushel, down from $2.87 in November 1995. The preliminary price in December was $2.56, in contrast to $3.07 received in December 1995. Cash corn prices at Central Illinois points averaged $2.62 per bushel in December 1996, nearly unchanged from November's $2.63, but 74 cents less than a year earlier. Futures prices for the Chicago Board of Trade's March contract hovered around $2.65 per bushel for most of December before slipping under $2.60 at the end of the month. The forecast farm price of sorghum was also raised 5 cents this month to $2.20 to $2.50 per bushel. This reflects somewhat lower first-quarter stocks than anticipated, as well as the stronger outlook for corn. More abundant sorghum supplies have brought down prices sharply in the last few months. The preliminary December farm price was $2.15 per bushel, just 84 percent of the corn price, and well below its feed value typically rated around 90-95 percent that of corn. In December 1995, the sorghum price was $3.17 and was running above the corn price. The forecast farm price of all barley was increased to $2.70 to $2.80 per bushel, up 20 cents on the bottom end and 10 cents at the top. Barley prices have been staying relatively high to date, considering the general increase in feed grain supplies. Assuming average weights, about 68 percent of the crop is marketed by December, and this would suggest a weighted price of $2.91 for June through December. The forecast of the farm oats price was also raised this month to $1.85 to $1.95 per bushel, up 10 cents on the bottom of the range. Farm prices have remained surprisingly high in recent months, declining the least of all feed grains since the onset of the marketing year. The preliminary farm price in December was $1.84 per bushel, about 25-30 cents above the nearby futures contract price. The reason for this price strength is not entirely clear, particularly with imports beginning to surge recently. It possibly reflects a large share of oats that were contracted previously at higher prices. In any event, with the steady drop in production in recent years, there are fewer oats to sell and the market is much thinner than those for other feed grains. WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE FOR 1996/97 FORECAST UP 3 PERCENT THIS MONTH Although world coarse grain trade is projected up this month, U.S. exports remain unchanged. U.S. oats imports were raised slightly because of the continued strong pace in recent months. World trade in 1996/97 is forecast higher because of increased corn imports by South Korea, at the expense of feed wheat imports, and increased barley imports by Saudi Arabia. Canadian feed wheat has failed to win recent tenders, facing competitive export quotes for corn. Moreover, transport problems have complicated nearby shipments from Canada. Argentina's corn exports are projected up 1.5 million tons this month to 8.25 million (October-September year). This would be up 19 percent from 1995/96, and the highest since the record 9 million tons exported in 1980/81. Saudi Arabia has purchased larger than expected quantities of barley from the EU, boosting forecast trade by 1 million tons. World 1996/97 coarse grain ending stocks are projected down 6.8 million tons from last month to 108.5 million, largely because of reductions in the U.S., EU, and Ukraine. Global ending stocks will still be up sharply from the 90.7 million tons estimated for 1995/96. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released February 13, 1997. * ****************************************************************************** NOTE: THE ANNUAL FEED YEARBOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 1997. Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 406 2,019 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 406 1,497 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 445 1,167 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 434 854 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,690 5,537 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 409 1,760 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 397 1,352 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 411 1,066 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 366 533 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,583 4,711 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 4 9,723 383 1,964 470 2,817 6,906 2.96 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 10 9,729 1,670 5,200 1,900 8,770 959 2.55-2.85 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.36 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 1 55 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 1 10 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 4 312 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 1 300 60 361 460 2.50 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 1 300 60 361 460 2.20-2.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 44 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 36 32 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 36 53 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 51 27 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 166 235 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 42 113 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 38 30 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 34 19 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 166 185 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 397 9 505 42 140 7 190 316 3.18 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 38 26 12 76 248 2.73 Mkt. yr. 100 397 40 536 166 235 35 436 100 2.70-2.80 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 35 29 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 124 202 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 27 30 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 34 21 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 123 152 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 31 63 1.0 95 133 2.08 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 171 29 13 1.1 43 129 1.83 Mkt. yr. 66 155 95 317 120 120 3.0 243 74 1.85-1.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------Million metric tons -------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 38.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.5 1.2 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.2 4.91 2.8 158.5 7.4 166.0 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.8 -12.4 -19.4 -15.8 12.9 -22.4 10.6 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.7 4.5 0.7 0.4 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.1 0.3 37.4 Mar-May 27.1 1.4 0.5 0.3 29.3 -1.8 27.5 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 0.9 17.8 10.4 28.1 Mkt. yr. 119.7 7.9 4.6 2.1 134.4 6.2 140.6 84.9 1.65 % Change -14.9 -22.0 -5.9 -24.6 -15.3 -16.5 -15.3 0.7 -15.9 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.9 7.6 0.6 0.3 58.4 -2.1 56.3 Mkt. yr. 132.1 13.3 4.1 2.2 151.8 6.0 157.7 86.1 1.83 % Change 10.4 68.4 -10.3 2.7 13.0 -4.0 12.2 1.3 10.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994/95 --------------1995/96------ --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Nov Nov Sept-Nov Nov ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 4.4 5.6 NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.5 202.1 175.3 135.2 132.4 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 28.2 30.1 29.3 23.5 27.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.1 117.3 117.7 119.7 119.4 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 Monthly: 1995: Aug 2.68 3.21 5.53 5.38 2.09 3.22 1.96 Sep 2.82 3.32 5.84 5.78 2.06 3.58 2.04 Oct 3.12 3.57 6.15 6.22 2.58 3.69 2.11 Nov 3.23 3.63 6.26 6.38 2.98 4.02 2.63 1996: Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 Sep 3.39 3.69 6.30 5.89 2.34 3.15 2.08 Oct 2.81 3.27 5.08 5.34 2.10 NQ 2.06 Nov 2.63 2.97 4.66 4.76 1.90 NQ 1.87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 88.20 Monthly: 1995: Aug 157.50 116.50 79.40 232.00 157.40 NQ 71.90 87.00 Sep 171.75 137.60 81.60 250.00 166.70 112.00 88.10 86.80 Oct 183.40 153.25 98.40 290.50 221.00 121.70 93.40 87.20 Nov 194.10 165.00 118.60 326.90 226.60 142.60 111.00 85.10 1996: Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 96.00 Sep 265.50 193.10 115.75 329.40 279.80 164.00 115.40 95.70 Oct 238.00 183.25 102.30 344.00 272.10 160.80 103.20 98.20 Nov 242.70 196.60 97.50 340.00 261.70 145.00 100.70 100.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quotes. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 29.4 405.8 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 29.1 405.5 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.2 29.7 430.1 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 29.7 430.8 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.0 118.0 1672.1 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 29.4 409.4 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 29.1 396.9 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 25.0 29.7 393.1 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.5 29.7 363.2 Mkt year 482.2 237.0 219.3 395.7 110.4 118.0 1562.6 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 100.7 24.9 29.9 383.0 Mkt year 515.0 240.0 225.0 450.0 100.0 120.0 1650.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1995: Sep 14.34 11.80 25.50 11.80 13.67 Oct 14.76 12.23 25.50 12.55 13.94 Nov 14.87 12.34 25.50 13.30 14.36 Dec 15.15 12.62 25.50 13.30 14.42 1996: Sep 20.36 16.26 25.50 13.15 18.50 Oct 17.19 13.11 25.50 13.15 15.41 Nov 16.78 12.70 25.50 13.15 13.58 Dec 2/ 16.31 12.21 25.50 13.15 12.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-Oct Mkt. yr. Sep-Oct Sep-Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 2,205 15,303 2,489 2,002 Taiwan 6,027 718 5,938 1,121 670 Former USSR 140 33 34 11 22 South Africa 187 0 347 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 94 321 145 26 EU 2,836 59 2,842 652 53 Egypt 2,569 327 2,167 402 285 Canada 1,096 151 808 202 160 China 3,240 0 2,207 1,700 0 East Europe 112 30 188 0 30 Algeria 1,000 328 522 55 118 S. Korea 8,005 693 8,285 1,836 763 Mexico 2,985 587 6,453 817 728 Others 10,723 1,246 11,077 2,234 1,360 Total 55,218 6,472 56,494 11,664 6,216 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 571 1,759 452 393 Japan 2,050 445 1,617 322 310 Others 1,008 71 1,591 226 156 Total 5,615 1,087 4,968 999 859 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Oct Mkt. yr. June-Oct June-Oct BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 0 373 0 21 Israel 468 237 42 42 28 Jordan 51 51 0 0 50 Others 671 311 932 568 379 Total 1,392 599 1,347 610 478 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Sep Mkt. yr. June-Sep June-Sep ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 517 1,302 711 576 Finland 374 192 22 8 0 Sweden 70 26 62 62 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 735 1,387 782 576 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 310 740 260 194 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 310 740 260 194 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 371 141 83 67 Other 16 10 6 0 0 Total 1/ 719 381 147 83 67 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE