FEED OUTLOOK February 13, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-0297. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Export Forecasts Raised for Argentina and China o U.S. Corn Exports Unchanged on the Strength of Higher World Trade o Foreign Exporters Are Capturing Greater Market Share of World Coarse Grain Trade in 1996/97 U.S. FEED GRAIN OUTLOOK LARGELY UNCHANGED There were only some minor adjustments in U.S. supply and use forecasts this month. These consisted of a small increase in oats imports and some small changes between components of industrial use of corn. Quarterly disappearance estimates for September-November were also adjusted slightly with the inclusion of final trade data for November. However, there were more substantial changes in the world outlook. World trade in corn in 1996/97 was increased because of higher projected exports by Argentina and China, along with larger prospective imports for several countries. No adjustments were made in forecast U.S. exports from last month. Feed grain supplies in 1996/97 are up 11 percent from the year before. This has brought down prices and will result in some rebuilding of stocks. The increased supply and more favorable prices are leading to a rebound in domestic use, also forecast up 11 percent. Competition in the world market has increased, however, and U.S. exports will be down from 1995/96. Foreign production is up, reflecting widespread gains among both exporting countries and importers. While favorable weather accounts for much of the rise, there was a marked increase in acreage in several countries in response to last year's strong prices. SMALL SHIFT IN CORN USED FOR ALCOHOL BUT NO CHANGE IN TOTAL FSI In 1996/97, food, seed and industrial use (FSI) is expected to total 1.67 billion bushels, up 6 percent from last year. This 1996/97 use, if realized, would represent 17 percent of the total supply of corn, down from the 18 percent used in 1995/96. Industrial uses of corn have started slowly in the 1996/97 marketing year because of short corn supplies at the start of the marketing year. Fuel alcohol producers in particular produced less in the first quarter than last year. With the cost of corn declining from the summer highs, industrial use is expected to pick up. Corn used for fuel alcohol production for 1996/97 was reduced 10 million bushels from the earlier forecast, but this was offset by an equal increase in corn used for beverage and manufacturing alcohol. The fuel alcohol estimate was trimmed because of the slow start and because December production was not up from the prior month as expected for the winter oxygenate period. Use for the year is forecast to increase 11 percent from 1995/96. Many producers are reporting their individual operations are at full production but these generally are firms that can sell beverage and manufacturing alcohol as well as fuel alcohol. Trade data provide further evidence of some shift in corn use, with exports of beverage alcohol during January-November 1996 up nearly 2 and half times from the same period in 1995. High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production in September-November 1996 was up nearly 5 percent from the same period in 1995, suggesting an increase for the year. Glucose, dextrose, and starch production were below last year in the first quarter. However, with increased availability of corn after the harvest along with lower prices are expected to boost production and shipments later in the year. The continued strong economy should keep paper needs up and declines in starch prices are expected to encourage starch use. UPDATE ON FEED AND RESIDUAL USE Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1996/97 is expected to increase 13 percent from the 141 million tons used in September 1995-August 1996. Feed and residual use in 1995/96 was down 15 percent from the year earlier when a short corn crop boosted prices and forced feeders to cut back. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1996/97 is expected to be up 1 percent from last year's 85 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1996/97 would be 1.84 tons, up from 1.65 tons in 1995/96. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy and hogs are down in 1996/97 and cattle on feed plus poultry are up. The dairy sector has been able to reduce the number of cows but increase output per cow. In 1996, output per cow was up in the 22 reporting States except in May-July, and the average was up for the year. Cow numbers were consistently down all year and for the U.S., cow numbers were down 1 percent from last year. Even though output per cow was above last year, total milk production in 1996 was down 1 percent from 1995. On January 1, 1997, grain and other concentrates fed daily per cow was 19.2 pounds, up from 18.8 pounds in 1996. The value per 100 pounds of concentrate ration in 1997 was up 3 percent from a year earlier. As concentrate prices decline because of lower-cost feed grains, concentrate use will likely continue above last year especially because prices for high quality hay have been strong. This is encouraging some substitution of grains for hay. Beef production in 1997 is expected to be down from 1996. The January 1 cattle inventory was down 2 percent from 1996 for all cattle and calves. Dairy cows were down 1 percent and beef cows were down 3 percent from the prior year. Heifers for dairy and beef cow replacements were both down 2 percent from 1996. However, the number of cattle on feed was up 2 percent which is more important for the GCAU index than other beef cattle which usually receive little concentrate feed. Thus feed use is expected to remain strong in the cattle feeding industry for the 1996/97 feed The strong grain prices last summer caused hog farmers to cut hog numbers, making the December 1, 1996 hog inventory the lowest since 1990. The breeding inventory was the smallest December 1 number on record. However, the pig crop, which was down 5 percent during the spring and summer quarters, was only down 1 percent in the fall quarter. As a result, the GCAU index for hogs is expected to be down 2 percent from last year. Poultry meat production is expected to continue increasing in the 1996/97 feed marketing year. As a result feed needs will continue strong for broiler and turkeys. Egg production is expected to increase and thus also increase feed needs. WORLD CORN TRADE FORECAST RAISED World corn trade in 1996/97 is projected at 63.4 million tons, up 700,000 tons from last month. Larger than expected purchases by several countries supported increased import forecasts. The largest increase is for Kenya, up 500,000 tons, with smaller increases for Colombia, Iran, Poland, Guatemala, South Africa, and Russia. Corn imports forecast for North Korea were raised 250,000 tons because of larger expected shipments from China. These import gains more than offset downward adjustments in forecasts for China (-450,000 tons) and Indonesia (-550,000 tons). In Indonesia, the government has had some success increasing production to reduce reliance on imports. Following a record crop, China's recent sales and shipments of corn indicate it will be a small net exporter in 1996/97. No change was made in Mexico's trade forecasts this month despite improved crop prospects. Corn and sorghum production in Mexico was increased this month for both 1995/96 and for forecast 1996/97. Total coarse grain production in 1996/97 is forecast at 25.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons from a month ago. However, increased use estimated in 1995/96 indicates strong demand in Mexico as the economy rebounds. Imports will be needed to maintain consumption growth so import forecasts for 1996/97 were not changed for either corn or sorghum. CHINA AND ARGENTINA CORN EXPORTS UP, U.S. UNCHANGED Despite increases in competitor exports, the U.S. 1996/97 export forecast remains at 1.9 billion bushels because of higher world imports. Corn exports forecast for China was increased 500,000 tons this month to 1 million, reflecting its recent sales, mainly to South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. China has traditionally been most successful selling corn in Asian markets where some customers prefer China's small vessels that can serve smaller ports. Argentina's corn export forecast was increased 225,000 tons (for the October/September year) because of further gains in its record crop prospects. U.S. OATS IMPORT FORECAST UP 5 MILLION BUSHELS The U.S. oats import forecast increased because of the strong pace of imports to date and because of expected imports from Scandinavia. The EU has recently awarded a relatively large volume of export restitutions (subsidies) for oats from Sweden and Finland. Both countries increased oat production in 1996/97. Forecast oats exports by Canada were reduced this month as slow farmer marketings and winter related logistics problems are expected to limit shipments to the United States. FOREIGN EXPORTERS CAPTURE INCREASED COARSE GRAIN TRADE IN 1996/97 World coarse grain (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains) imports in 1996/97 are forecast up about 1 percent from a year earlier, but still 8 percent less than in 1994/95. Import demand in 1996/97 remains strong despite increased foreign production. However, world corn trade in 1996/97 is forecast down 4 percent from a year ago because of increased competition from other feed grains. Although U.S. production and supplies are up sharply in 1996/97, and world coarse grain trade is expanding, U.S. exports are expected to decline from the year before because foreign exporters are increasing market share. The U.S. share of world coarse grain trade is forecast at 61.6 percent in 1996/97. In 1994/95 and 1995/96 the United States captured about two thirds of world coarse grain trade, more than in the previous 4 years when China was a large net exporter and the EU was subsidizing aggressively, and much more than in 1993/94 when a short crop caused U.S. market share to fall below 50 percent. Argentina, Canada, China, and the EU are expected to have increased production and supplies of coarse grains in 1996/97. In addition, South Africa continues to market corn from its large 1995/96 crop. PRICE OUTLOOK LARGELY UNCHANGED There were no change in farm price forecasts this month. Feed grain prices have been relatively steady in recent weeks, with little change in market conditions. Following the January report, there was a small upward bump in cash and futures prices for corn, reflecting a reduction in projected ending stocks and some support from strengthening soybean prices. The preliminary price of corn received by farmers in January was $2.63 per bushel, unchanged from December, and the sorghum price was up one cent to $2.22 per bushel. Cash corn prices at Central Illinois points rose slightly in mid-January and since have stayed in a narrow range around $2.66. Similarly, nearby corn futures prices (March contract) rose and then hovered in a narrow range around $2.70 for the last few weeks. The price direction for the next few weeks will increasingly be influenced by spring planting prospects. While a typical seasonal pattern would show a slight upward trend, expectations of a large 1997 crop could begin to depress prices. Prices for feed grains and many related byproduct feeds are currently down sharply from a year ago. However, prices for protein meals are actually higher. This mainly reflects very strong demand for soybean meal, especially in export markets. Protein meal prices are likely to soften in the next few months as South American supplies enter the market. Although it is only one indicator of possible planting direction, the ratio of soybean to corn prices based on cash prices and nearby futures contracts would favor soybean acres over corn. The ratio based on futures prices prevailing after harvest this fall is less conclusive, however, falling to around break even levels. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released March 12, 1997. * ****************************************************************************** NOTE: THE ANNUAL FEED YEARBOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 1997. THE SUMMARY WILL BE RELEASED MARCH 21. ELECTRONIC AND PRINTED VERSIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE ABOUT 1-2 WEEKS LATER. Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 406 2,019 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 406 1,497 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 445 1,167 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 434 854 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,690 5,537 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 409 1,760 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 397 1,352 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 411 1,066 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 366 533 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,583 4,711 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,945 487 2,817 6,906 2.80 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 10 9,729 1,670 5,200 1,900 8,770 959 2.55-2.85 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.36 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 1 55 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 1 10 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 4 312 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 1 304 56 361 460 0.24 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 4 525 225 754 67 2.20-2.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 44 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 36 32 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 36 53 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 51 27 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 166 235 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 42 113 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 38 30 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 34 19 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 166 185 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 397 9 505 42 140 7 190 316 2.53 Mkt. yr. 100 397 40 536 166 235 35 436 100 2.70-2.80 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 35 29 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 124 202 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 27 30 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 34 21 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 123 152 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 31 63 1.0 95 133 1.48 Mkt. yr. 66 155 100 322 120 120 3.0 243 79 1.85-1.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------Million metric tons -------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 38.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.5 1.2 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.2 4.91 2.8 158.5 7.4 166.0 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.8 -12.4 -19.4 -15.8 12.9 -22.4 10.6 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.7 4.5 0.7 0.4 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.1 0.3 37.4 Mar-May 27.1 1.4 0.5 0.3 29.3 -1.8 27.5 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 0.9 17.8 10.4 28.1 Mkt. yr. 119.7 7.9 4.6 2.1 134.4 6.2 140.6 85.2 1.65 % Change -14.9 -22.0 -5.9 -24.6 -15.3 -16.5 -15.3 1.1 -16.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.7 0.6 0.3 58.0 -2.1 55.9 Mkt. yr. 132.1 13.3 4.1 2.2 151.8 6.6 158.4 86.0 1.84 % Change 10.4 68.4 -10.3 3.3 13.0 7.0 12.7 0.8 11.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994/95 --------------1995/96----- --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Dec Dec Sept-Dec Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 4.2 3.8 NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.8 196.6 180.1 128.7 109.0 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 28.2 29.4 27.3 23.6 23.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.3 117.5 118.1 119.7 119.7 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 Monthly: 1995: Sep 2.82 3.32 5.84 5.78 2.06 3.58 2.04 Oct 3.12 3.57 6.15 6.22 2.58 3.69 2.11 Nov 3.23 3.63 6.26 6.38 2.98 4.02 2.63 Dec 3.36 3.76 6.55 6.93 2.92 3.98 2.50 1996: Sep 3.39 3.69 6.30 5.89 2.34 3.15 2.08 Oct 2.81 3.27 5.08 5.34 2.10 NQ 2.06 Nov 2.63 2.97 4.66 4.76 1.90 NQ 1.87 Dec 2.62 2.97 4.59 4.77 1.96 NQ 1.86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 88.20 Monthly: 1995: Sep 171.75 137.60 81.60 250.00 166.70 112.00 88.10 85.40 Oct 183.40 153.25 98.40 290.50 221.00 121.70 93.40 85.80 Nov 194.10 165.00 118.60 326.90 226.60 142.60 111.00 85.00 Dec 213.60 185.80 119.10 331.90 228.80 146.50 126.60 84.60 1996: Sep 265.50 193.10 115.75 329.40 279.80 164.00 115.40 95.70 Oct 238.00 183.25 102.30 344.00 272.10 160.80 103.20 98.20 Nov 242.70 196.60 97.50 340.00 261.70 145.00 100.70 100.00 Dec 240.90 224.50 99.50 342.50 272.00 143.10 113.00 102.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 29.4 405.8 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 29.1 405.5 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.2 29.7 430.1 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 29.7 430.8 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.0 118.0 1672.1 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 29.4 409.4 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 29.1 396.9 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 25.0 29.7 393.1 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.5 29.7 363.2 Mkt year 482.2 237.0 219.3 395.7 110.4 118.0 1562.6 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 100.7 27.4 29.9 385.5 Mkt year 515.0 240.0 225.0 440.0 110.0 120.0 1650.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, dextrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1995/96: Oct 14.76 12.23 25.50 12.55 13.94 Nov 14.87 12.34 25.50 13.30 14.36 Dec 15.15 12.62 25.50 13.30 14.42 Jan 17.01 12.91 25.50 13.15 14.57 1996/97: Oct 17.19 13.11 25.50 13.15 15.41 Nov 16.78 12.70 25.50 13.15 13.58 Dec 16.18 12.08 25.50 13.15 12.95 Jan 2/ 16.32 12.22 25.50 13.15 12.89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-Nov Mkt. yr. Sep-Nov Sep-Nov ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 3,485 15,303 3,858 3,412 Taiwan 6,027 1,453 5,938 1,577 1,215 Former USSR 140 33 34 27 59 South Africa 187 0 347 100 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 109 321 245 15 EU 2,836 199 2,842 819 145 Egypt 2,569 563 2,167 743 640 Canada 1,096 279 808 254 285 China 3,240 0 2,207 2,123 53 East Europe 112 61 188 61 30 Algeria 1,000 514 522 140 265 S. Korea 8,005 1,334 8,285 2,369 1,968 Mexico 2,985 991 6,453 1,072 1,064 Others 10,723 2,365 11,077 3,368 3,194 Total 55,218 11,385 56,494 16,753 12,344 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 807 1,759 510 578 Japan 2,050 658 1,617 522 569 Others 1,008 148 1,591 312 270 Total 5,615 1,614 4,968 1,345 1,417 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Nov Mkt. yr. June-Nov June-Nov BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 0 373 0 32 Israel 468 323 42 42 28 Jordan 51 51 0 0 50 Others 671 426 932 592 428 Total 1,392 800 1,347 635 537 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Nov Mkt. yr. June-Nov June-Nov ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 605 1,302 853 779 Finland 374 307 22 8 0 Sweden 70 26 62 62 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 938 1,387 924 779 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 389 740 348 294 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 389 740 348 294 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 428 141 86 80 Other 16 10 6 0 0 Total 1/ 719 438 147 86 80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE