FEED OUTLOOK April 14, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-0497. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HIGHLIGHTS o Farmers Intend To Plant More than 81 Million Acres of Corn in 1997 o Corn Stocks Data Indicate Brisk 2nd Quarter Disappearance o Higher Feed and Residual Use Outweighs Cut in Corn Exports o Forecasts of Ending Stocks Reduced; Price Expectations Higher FEED GRAIN OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY TIGHTER WITH HIGHER PROSPECTIVE USE Projected ending stocks of feed grains in 1996/97 were lowered this month as higher domestic use more than offsets lower exports. Corn accounted for the largest change, followed by sorghum. Small increases in use of barley and oats were technical in nature, reflecting revisions in time series data for these grains. Total feed grain use is forecast at 257.2 million metric tons, up 2 million from a month ago. With the feed grain supply about unchanged, ending stocks are forecast down 2.1 million tons to 27.3 million tons. While a substantial increase from the 1995/96 stocks of 14.4 million tons, this would still be low by historical standards. PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS: CORN, AND OATS UP FROM 1996; SORGHUM AND BARLEY DOWN Feed grain plantings in 1997 are expected to total 104.6 million acres, according to the Prospective Plantings report, up 100,000 acres from 1996 plantings. Farmers were surveyed by USDA in the first 2 weeks of March. There were few surprises among the feed grains. However, intended soybean acres were up dramatically, exceeding virtually everyone's expectations, in response to very strong prices and increased use for rotations in some areas. Corn growers intend to plant 81.4 million acres in 1997, up 2 percent from last year, and the largest acreage since 1985. Assuming trend yields, this would lead to increased production of about 300 million bushels from 1996. Farmers in most major corn- producing States expect to increase plantings, except for Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota. The largest increase--900,000 acres--is in store in Ohio where much land intended for corn in 1996 could not be planted due to excessive moisture. Indiana growers intend to increase plantings by 300,000 acres for similar reasons. Some slippage in corn acreage from last year is expected in the smaller growing States of the South as corn prices have fallen. Soybean acres are expected to increase 7 percent in 1997 to 68.8 million. If intentions are realized, combined plantings of corn and soybeans would be up nearly 5 percent from 1996 to 150.2 million acres. This would be the highest since 1980. Acreage was very high in 1979-82 when exports of both crops were booming and prices were high. In 1997, farmers are reacting to favorable market conditions and the end of the idling program under the new farm legislation. In addition, there may have been some land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Sorghum plantings are expected to drop 18 percent in 1997 to 10.9 million acres, with declines in nearly all producing States. Most of the decline will take place in the major States of Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska. Last year's total was boosted by plantings of sorghum on land which had been first planted to other crops, especially wheat and cotton, but that was not harvested. Barley growers intend to seed 7.04 million acres for 1997, down 2 percent from the 7.17 million acres seeded a year ago. This suggests no major change in production if yields are around trend level. Acreage declines in North Dakota, California, and Wyoming more than offset increases in Montana, Idaho, and Minnesota. Adequate to surplus snowfall across the northern half of the United States is expected to provide sufficient moisture for spring plantings. In some places, flooding or excessive moisture could delay or prevent plantings. In 1996, spring grain plantings were generally late in the Northern Plains because it was too wet, but conditions improved, allowing decent crops. Oats producers plan to seed or have seeded 5.29 million acres of oats for 1997, up 14 percent from the record low 4.66 million acres seeded in 1996. However, even if all planting intentions are met, 1997 would still be the second lowest acreage seeded to oats on record since 1866. Oats planting intentions are up significantly due to high prices and the rebuilding of hay stocks after the severe winter in the upper-Midwest. Growers intend to harvest 3.23 million acres for grain in 1997, up 20 percent from 2.69 million acres harvested for grain last year. If realized, this would be the third least acreage harvested for grain on record. However, assuming average yields, oats grain production could be up around 30 million bushels from 1996. HAY SUPPLIES MAY INCREASE IN 1997 Strong prices for hay in 1995/96 has encouraged producers to plan on increased production for 1997. Producers reported they expected to harvest 6.5 million acres of hay in 1997, up 1 percent from 1996. Acreage increases were widespread across the United States, with the main exceptions being California, the Southern Plains States, and the Southeast States. States anticipating increases cite the previous year's low production, tight hay supplies, and high prices as the main reasons for the expected rise in harvested acreage. The expected decrease in California is a result of substantial flood damage in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys during the winter. Although the demand for hay in Texas is currently high, expectations are for an 8-percent reduction from the record level in 1996. A mild winter, lower cattle numbers, and adequate hay supplies were the driving forces behind expected declines in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. MARCH 1 CORN STOCKS UP 18 PERCENT, 2ND QUARTER DISAPPEARANCE HIGHER Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 1997 were 4.49 billion bushels, up from 3.8 billion a year earlier. Of the total, 2.87 billion bushels were held on farm. While on farm stocks were up 43 percent from March 1, 1996, those held off farm were down 10 percent. Stocks of grain sorghum were 274 million bushels on March 1, up 69 percent. Barley stocks were down 3 percent from a year earlier to 172 million bushels. Oats stocks totaled 96 million bushels, a decline of 15 percent. Corn disappearance for December-February was 2,412 million bushels, up 100 million from the same period a year earlier. Pending the release of final trade data for February, feed and residual use is estimated at 1,495 million bushels, somewhat higher than most analysts expected. Food, seed, and industrial use is estimated at 392 million bushels, up slightly from the first quarter as ethanol production gained. Exports of corn are estimated at 525 million bushels, also up from the first quarter after a very slow start to shipments in September. 1996/97 PROJECTED CORN ENDING STOCKS REDUCED 50 MILLION BUSHELS Higher forecasts of domestic use led to reduction in 1996/97 ending stocks for each of the feed grains this month. The largest reduction occurred in corn, followed by sorghum, barley, and oats. Except for barley, ending stocks are still expected to be higher than the previous year. Total use of corn is forecast at 8,820 million bushels in 1996/97, up 50 million from a month ago, as domestic gains outweigh lower exports. Feed and residual use was raised 125 million bushels, reflecting higher than expected disappearance over the first half of the marketing year. Exports were reduced 75 million bushels. Corn ending stocks are projected at 909 million bushels, compared with 426 million in 1995/96. UPDATE ON CORN AND SORGHUM FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE The food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1996/97 is forecast at 1.67 billion bushels, up from 1.598 billion in 1995/96. FSI use in September 1996-February 1997 was 776 million bushels, down 5 percent from the same period in 1995-1996. Fuel alcohol use of corn in September 1996-February 1997 was down 15 percent from the 242 million bushels used in 1995-1996, partly because sorghum prices have been weak and some dry mill ethanol producers have been substituting sorghum for corn. Ethanol production in 1996/1997 may total 1.1 billion gallons, the same as earlier expected, but less corn may be used if sorghum remains more favorably priced. The forecast of sorghum FSI use was raised to 35 million bushels for 1996/97, up from 4 million the previous month, to reflect the increase in use for ethanol. This month, corn food use numbers were changed to reflect the 1992 Census of Manufactures final report, which resulted in an increase of about 15 million bushels and offset the reduction in corn used for ethanol. (For a discussion of the revisions in all the corn use categories plus the other feed grains, see the Feed Situation and Outlook Yearbook, March 1997, available on the World Wide Web.) Corn used in wet-mill operations in the first half of 1996/97 was 449 million bushels, 13 million above 1995/96. In the first half, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was up 5 percent from last year, but glucose and dextrose production was about the same. Starch production was up nearly 3 percent, from the 107 million bushels used in September 1995-February 1996. Corn used to make starch increased sharply in the second quarter of 1996/97 possibly in response to the strengthening general economy. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE UP Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1996/97 is expected to increase 15 percent from the 140 million metric tons used in September 1995-August 1996. Feed and residual use in 1995/96 was down 15 percent from the year earlier when a short corn crop boosted prices and forced feeders to cut back. In September 1996-February 1997, feed and residual use totaled 98.9 million metric tons, up 17 percent from first half 1995/96. Corn, which accounted for 88 percent of feed and residual use in the first half, totaled nearly 87.5 million tons of use, up 11 percent from the 78.9 million tons used in first half 1995/96. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1996/97 is expected to be up 1 percent from last year's 85 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1996/97 would be 1.9 tons, up from 1.7 tons per GCAU in 1995/96. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy and hogs are down in 1996/97 and cattle on feed plus poultry are up. On March 1, 1997, cattle on feed in the historic seven States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more, were up 8 percent from the previous year. Placement in feedlots during February were 6 percent above 1996. With increased cattle numbers on feed, demand for grains by feedlots is expected to remain strong. The hogs and pigs inventory on March 1, 1997 was 1 percent below March 1996. The breeding inventory was up 1 percent from last year and the pig crop during December 1996-February 1997 was nearly the same as a year earlier. The number of sows farrowing was down 2 percent, but pigs per litter were up 3 percent. If farmers carry through with their intentions, the number of sows farrowing relative to the prior year will increase in the next 2 quarters. This could begin to increase feed needs in second-half 1997 from 1996. The Hogs and Pigs report was completed before the incidence of foot and mouth disease in Taiwan was announced. Pork prices have increased as a result because of higher expected pork exports. Broiler, turkey, and egg production in 1997 are expected to increase from the 1996 levels and continue strong demand for feed grains. For example, broiler growers in the 15-State weekly reporting program placed 140 million chicks for meat production during the week ending April 5, 1997, up 6 percent from the comparable week in 1996. Cumulative weekly placements from December 29, 1996, through April 5, 1997 were 1.93 billion, 3 percent above the 1.88 billion placed during the same period a year earlier. Similarly, turkey producers in February placed 27 million poults for slaughter, down 2 percent from last year, but cumulative placements since September were up 1 percent. Egg production in all of 1997 is expected to be up 3 percent from 1996. PRICE FORECASTS UP FOR CORN, SORGHUM, AND BARLEY Price expectations for feed grains have increased this month because of the prospects for higher use and lower stocks. In addition to the tighter outlook, prices in recent weeks have been relatively strong. The forecast season average farm price of corn for 1996/97 was raised to $2.70-$2.90 per bushel, up from $2.55-$2.85. The preliminary farm price of corn was $2.78 per bushel in March, an increase of 13 cents from February. Nearby futures prices for corn have hovered around $3.00 per bushel since early March. The forecast farm price of sorghum was increased to $2.30-$2.50 per bushel this month, up 10 cents on the bottom end of the range. The preliminary March farm price of $2.51 was the highest since last September. The barley price forecast was raised to $2.75-$2.85 per bushel for 1996/97, up 5 cents. Both feed and malting barley prices were slightly lower in March, dropping the preliminary all-barley farm price to $2.42 in March. INCREASED COMPETITION FROM CHINA DROPS 1996/97 U.S. CORN EXPORT FORECAST The U.S. corn export forecast dropped 75 million bushels this month to 1,825 million. Increased competition from China, and reduced imports by Taiwan account for most of the change. U.S. export sales in recent weeks have been fairly strong, but according to U.S. Export Sales, outstanding sales and shipments as of April 3 were down 30 percent from a year ago. U.S. corn exports to critical Asian markets will be limited by developments in both China and Taiwan. The foreign corn production estimate increased 9.2 million tons this month, with most of the increase in China and Brazil. Based on reports of increased total grain production, the estimate of China's 1996/97 corn production increased 5 million tons this month to a record 122 million tons. Government control of corn exports keeps China's corn exports from directly reflecting production changes. USDA's forecast of China's corn exports increased this month to 2.5 million tons from 1.0 million last month, reflecting the pace of export licenses and the active sales pace. China has been most successful selling for delivery to smaller ports in South Korea, the Philippines, and Malaysia using smaller ships than those used for shipments from the United States. Foreign corn imports were reduced slightly this month with a 0.5 million-ton decline in Taiwan accounting for most of the change. Foot-and-mouth disease struck Taiwan's swine, causing widespread herd liquidation, and a ban on exports. Fewer pigs will need less corn, although increased poultry production is expected to be partially offsetting. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 The next Feed Outlook will be released on May 13, 1997. ***************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 415 1,062 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,598 4,696 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 385 1,948 487 2,819 6,904 2.96 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 392 1,495 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 10 9,729 1,670 5,325 1,825 8,820 909 2.70-2.90 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.36 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 1 55 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 8 308 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.50 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 123 60 193 274 2.25 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 35 515 225 775 46 2.30-2.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 397 9 505 44 138 7 190 316 3.18 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.73 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 39 8 83 172 2.57 Mkt. yr. 100 397 35 531 172 235 35 442 89 2.75-2.85 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.08 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.83 Dec-Feb 129 --- 29 157 20 40 0.6 61 96 1.79 Mkt. yr. 66 155 100 322 95 150 3.0 248 74 1.90-2.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.5 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.3 10.2 4.8 3.3 158.5 7.4 165.9 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.3 37.3 Mar-May 27.0 1.4 0.5 0.4 29.3 -1.8 27.5 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.4 28.0 Mkt. yr. 119.3 7.8 4.5 2.6 134.2 6.2 140.4 85.2 1.65 % Change -15.0 -22.9 -5.8 -22.1 -15.3 -16.6 -15.4 1.1 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.5 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 38.0 3.1 0.8 0.7 42.6 0.7 43.3 Mkt. yr. 135.3 13.1 4.6 2.5 155.5 6.6 162.1 85.8 1.89 % Change 13.4 67.1 2.7 -1.2 15.9 7.1 15.5 0.6 14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994/95 --------------1995/96----- --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Feb Feb Sept-Feb Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 3.5 1.8 NA 1.9 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.8 193.1 176.0 126.4 107.6 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 28.2 29.0 28.8 24.2 26.6 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.3 117.7 118.1 NA NA (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 Monthly: 1995/96: Nov 3.23 3.63 6.26 6.38 2.98 4.02 2.63 Dec 3.36 3.76 6.55 6.93 2.92 3.98 2.50 Jan 3.53 4.00 6.75 7.05 2.94 4.00 2.40 Feb 3.71 4.18 7.25 7.25 3.00 3.47 2.31 1996/97: Nov 2.63 2.97 4.66 4.76 1.90 NQ 1.87 Dec 2.62 2.97 4.59 4.77 1.96 NQ 1.86 Jan 2.62 3.02 4.57 4.80 1.95 NQ 1.89 Feb 2.71 3.08 4.80 5.03 2.01 2.75 1.94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 88.20 Monthly: 1995/96: Nov 194.10 165.00 118.60 326.90 226.60 142.60 111.00 85.00 Dec 213.60 185.80 119.10 331.90 228.80 146.50 126.60 84.60 Jan 220.50 208.80 127.00 351.00 236.50 144.80 131.20 84.60 Feb 216.70 202.80 122.10 342.50 217.60 144.00 118.70 84.60 1996/97: Nov 242.70 196.60 97.50 340.00 261.70 145.00 100.70 100.00 Dec 240.90 224.50 99.50 342.50 272.00 143.10 113.00 102.00 Jan 240.70 207.20 100.25 336.25 262.90 144.00 103.10 106.00 Feb 253.60 183.75 102.75 335.60 258.80 149.00 96.20 115.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.8 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1,686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 25.0 33.5 396.8 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.5 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 110.4 133.0 1,577.6 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 27.4 33.5 384.8 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 27.1 33.1 391.7 Mkt year 515.0 240.0 225.0 425.0 110.0 134.3 1,649.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1995/96: Dec 15.15 12.62 25.50 13.30 14.42 Jan 17.01 12.91 25.50 13.15 14.57 Feb 17.36 13.26 25.50 13.15 15.11 Mar 17.87 13.77 25.50 13.15 15.50 1996/97: Dec 16.18 12.08 25.50 13.15 12.95 Jan 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 12.89 Feb 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 12.77 Mar 2/ 17.02 12.92 25.50 13.15 12.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-Jan Mkt. yr. Sep-Jan Sep-Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 6,283 15,303 6,481 6,131 Taiwan 6,027 2,245 5,938 2,635 2,361 Former USSR 140 33 34 27 69 South Africa 187 0 347 261 58 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 224 321 223 8 EU 2,836 760 2,842 1,806 266 Egypt 2,569 1,082 2,167 1,056 856 Canada 1,096 422 808 318 463 China 3,240 346 2,207 2,207 53 East Europe 112 67 188 134 103 Algeria 1,000 655 522 297 318 S. Korea 8,005 2,929 8,285 3,734 3,337 Mexico 2,985 1,783 6,453 2,080 1,572 Others 10,723 4,620 11,077 5,591 6,183 Total 55,218 21,450 56,494 26,850 21,779 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 1,166 1,759 671 981 Japan 2,050 1,061 1,617 886 1,042 Others 1,008 468 1,591 1,091 478 Total 5,615 2,695 4,968 2,648 2,502 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Jan Mkt. yr. June-Jan June-Jan BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 0 373 244 32 Israel 468 427 42 42 28 Jordan 51 51 0 0 50 Others 671 514 932 989 510 Total 1,392 991 1,347 1,275 620 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Jan Mkt. yr. June-Jan June-Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 844 1,302 1,059 1,027 Finland 374 374 22 8 22 Sweden 70 70 62 62 69 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 1,288 1,387 1,129 1,118 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 491 740 481 373 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 491 740 481 373 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 552 141 102 121 Other 16 16 6 0 0 Total 1/ 719 568 147 102 121 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE