FEED OUTLOOK July 14, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is a monthly report issued electronically by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No printed copies available. FDS-0797. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Lower Acreage Estimate Reduces Projected 1997 Corn Production o Sorghum, Barley, and Oats Crops Trimmed o Corn Ending Stocks Projection Down in 1997/98, 1996/97 Up Slightly o Higher Alcohol Production Boosts FSI Use of Corn PROJECTED 1997 FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION PULLED DOWN BY LOWER PLANTINGS U.S. feed grain production in 1997 is projected at 273.5 million metric tons, down 4.7 million from last month, mainly reflecting lower plantings than expected earlier. Corn accounts for most of the prospective decline in production, but sorghum, barley, and oats forecasts also dropped. In addition to lower acreage, the first survey-based yield forecasts for barley and oats are down from trend or average yields. USDA will make its first survey-based forecasts for corn and sorghum in August. With carryin stocks up slightly, feed grain supplies for 1997/98 are projected down 4.4 million metric tons from last month to 304.1 million. Total use of feed grains is projected at 269.2 million tons, about unchanged from the previous month. Higher prospective industrial use (of corn and sorghum) offset lower feed and residual use (sorghum). There were no changes in export forecasts. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 34.9 million tons, down 4.6 million from last month. Compared with 1996/97, feed grain supply is projected up 7 percent. However, relative to many earlier years, supply will not be that high in 1997/98 because carryin stocks will be fairly low. Total feed grain use is projected to rise 5 percent over 1996/97, and will be close to the record high of 1994/95, indicative of strong demand prospects. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS TO 9.7 BILLION BUSHELS Corn production is projected at 9,700 million bushels in 1997, down 140 million from last month because of lower acres. This would still be the second highest crop ever after the record 10.1 billion crop of 1994. Corn plantings are estimated at 80.2 million acres, down 1.2 million acres from farmers' March intentions, and 74 million acres are expected to be harvested for grain. Planted and harvested acres are both up 1 percent from 1996, however, and will be the highest since 1985. The slippage in corn area is largely due to shifts to soybeans, with soybean plantings up 2.1 million acres from farmers' earlier intentions to 70.9 million, the highest level since 1982. Very high prices for soybeans attracted land from corn and other crops. The reduction in corn acreage from March planting intentions occurred across most States; only Nebraska, Missouri, and Pennsylvania registered significant increases. No change was made in yields this month, projected at 131 bushels per acre. Favorable crop conditions over the last few weeks are consistent with the above-trend yield projection. The index of crop conditions for the major growing States as of July 7 was higher than at any point in 1996. However, conditions for the rest of July will be critical because pollination will occur, and yields could move either way. Over the last decade, the index of conditions in early July was only higher in 1987 and 1994, both years of record yields. In 1992, the index was lower, but began to increase in mid-July, and this improvement also led to record yields in that year. SORGHUM, BARLEY, AND OATS PRODUCTION REDUCED Sorghum production in 1997 is projected at 643 million bushels, down 22 million from a month ago because of lower area. Sorghum plantings are estimated at 10.3 million acres, a drop of 600,000 from the March intentions. Harvested area is forecast at 9.5 million acres, down 300,000. A cool wet spring delayed plantings, but the pace had recovered by mid-June to around normal. Projected trend sorghum yields are unchanged at 67.6 bushels per acre. As of July 7, crop conditions were favorable, with 77 percent of the crop rated good or excellent. The first survey-based forecast of barley production is 372 million bushels, down 23 million from the previous projection and 25 million lower than the 1996 crop. Planted area declined about 200,000 acres from earlier intentions to 6.8 million, the second lowest since records were first kept in 1926. Harvested acres are estimated at 6.4 million. North Dakota, the largest producing State, accounts for most of the decline. Average barley yields are forecast at 58.1 bushels per acre, down from last month's trend-based projection of 59.7 bushels. Growing conditions have been generally favorable in most areas, except for North Dakota, where parts of the State were very dry. Oats production is forecast at 183 million bushels in 1997 according to the first survey results, down 4 million from the initial projection. Planted and harvested acres are nearly unchanged, but yields are forecast down slightly to 56.7 bushels per acre. While 1997 production would be up 18 percent from last year's record low, it would still rank as the third lowest crop ever. Gains in oats production are expected in many States, led by Wisconsin, which is forecast to be the largest producing State. Despite larger area, dryness in North Dakota has reduced yield potential and its crop will decline from 1996. HAY HARVESTED ACREAGE DECLINES The acreage farmers reported they intend to harvest for hay in 1997 was down 215,000 acres from the 61 million harvested in 1996. Acreage harvested of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures in 1997 will be down 3 percent from 1996, while all other hay is expected up 1 percent. The biggest declines in alfalfa hay acreage are in North and South Dakota, accounting for 600,000 of the 735,000 acre decline, mainly due to winterkill and flooding. Nationally, the acreage reported at the end of June declined from the March intentions report when farmers reported a 1-percent increase in acreage they expected to harvest. ENDING STOCKS REDUCED FOR EACH FEED GRAIN IN 1997/98 As a result of lower production, and some smaller changes in carryin stocks and use, the projection of 1997/98 corn ending stocks was lowered 153 million bushels this month to 1,196 million. Food, seed, and industrial use was increased 20 million bushels because of higher expected use of corn to produce beverage alcohol. Carryin stocks of corn were raised 7 million bushels to 916 million because of several small changes in 1996/97 forecasts: imports are up 2 million bushels, feed and residual use reduced 25 million to 5,300 million, and FSI use was increased 20 million to 1,690 million. Similarly, lower production led to reductions in 1997/98 ending stocks of the other feed grains. Sorghum stocks are projected at 79 million, down 18 million from last month, after a small drop in carryin stocks, lower feed and residual, and higher industrial use for ethanol production. Projected barley stocks dropped only marginally to 70 million bushels, as higher carryin stocks about offset the prospective decline in production. Oats stocks are projected 12 million lower than a month ago to 66 million, all due to lower supplies. MARCH-MAY 1996/97 CORN DISAPPEARANCE ESTIMATED AT 2 BILLION BUSHELS; Corn stocks on June 1 were reported at 2,495 million bushels, up 45 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks totaled 1,501 million bushels, and those on farms were 994 million. This places estimated disappearance for March-May at 2,003 million bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year ago and 8 percent from the record of 1994/95, but in line with most expectations. Although exports were relatively slow, domestic use of corn was comparatively strong. FSI use is estimated at a record high for any quarter, surpassing the previous high reached in 1994/95. The preliminary breakout by category of use can be found in table 1, with some changes possible pending the release of final trade data for May. Relative to last year's desperately tight situation, corn supplies in the June-August quarter of 1996/97 will be quite abundant. Higher wheat production than earlier anticipated and falling wheat prices may lead to some increases in wheat feeding during the summer. However, corn prices have also been falling, and so far this has obscured any strong price advantage for wheat. FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN UP Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1997/98 is expected to total 1.78 million bushels, up from 1.69 million in 1996/97. In 1996/97, FSI use is expected to total 1.69 million bushels of corn, up 5 percent from 1995/96. In 1997/98, FSI use, if realized, would represent 19 percent of total use, the same as in 1996/97, and 1995/96. FSI use in 1996/97 was up for all the categories; but corn used for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), ethanol, and beverage and manufacturing alcohol was up more than the other uses. Corn used for HFCS production in September 1996-May 1997 was up 4 percent from the same period in 1995/96. Since HFCS is used in soft drinks, the June-August quarter is usually the strongest use and is expected to boost yearly production nearly 5 percent. In 1997/98, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 5 percent from the 505 million bushels used in 1996/97. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose during September 1996-May 1997 was up 2 percent from a year earlier and may be up about 1 percent for the year-over-year total. In the first 3 quarters of the 1996/97 corn marketing year, corn used for starch production has been up 4 percent from the same period in 1995/96. In 1997/98, corn used to make starch is expected to increase 2 percent from 1996/97. Corn used to make ethanol was increased 10 million bushels from prior estimates based on the continued strong monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy. Based on industry reports and the decline in sorghum stocks, additional sorghum was also assumed to be used to produce ethanol which moderated the rise in corn use. Still, corn used to make ethanol in 1996/97 is estimated to be up 10 percent from the 396 million bushels used in 1995/96 when high corn prices caused plant closings and reduced use. In 1997/98, corn used to produce ethanol is expected to increase 11 percent from the anticipated 435 million bushels used in 1996/97. Corn used to make beverage and manufacturing alcohol was raised sharply this month. Data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms; Department of the Treasury, usually has a significant lag and this has lengthened recently. However, the recent release of the May 1996 monthly distilled spirits report shows corn use much higher than had been expected for the first 3 quarters of 1995/96. While domestic use of distilled spirits may not be as strong as in the past, exports have been very strong in 1995/96 and continuing to date. Therefore, the corn used for beverage and manufacturing was increased 20 million bushels from last month's estimate, and a similar rise in use is expected for 1997/98. UPDATE ON 1996/97 FEED AND RESIDUAL USE Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1997/98 is expected to increase 2 percent from the expected 163 million metric tons used in September 1996-August 1997. Feed and residual use in 1996/97 is forecast up 17 percent from the year earlier when the short 1995 corn crop boosted prices and forced feeders to cut back. Corn, which accounted for 85 percent of feed and residual use in 1995/96, is expected to represent 82 percent of feed and residual use in 1996/97 and 86 percent in 1997/98. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1997/98 is expected to be up 3 percent from 1996/97's 85 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1997/98 would be 1.9 tons, down 1 percent from 1996/97, but up from 1.7 tons per GCAU in 1995/96. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy and cattle on feed are down in 1997/98 and hogs plus poultry are up. Cattle on feed in the feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on June 1 were up 12 percent from a year earlier, placements were also well above a year earlier. Thus, current feed use by cattle feedlots is probably stronger than last year when feed prices were record high. Beef cow slaughter was strong in 1996 as high grain prices weakened feeder cattle prices, and extensive drought caused herds to be reduced. News reports of winter storms impacting beef herds and spring calves suggest there will be fewer calves to go on feed in 1998. In addition, heifers may be retained to increase herds which would also reduce animals available for feed lot placement. As a result, cattle on feed numbers in 1997/98 may be down from 1996/97 and feed use could be weaker. Pork production in 1998 is expected to increase 8 percent from the 17.1 billion pounds produced in 1997, which was up slightly from 1996. Hog farmers responding to the June 1997 survey indicated that they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing in June-November 1997 by 6 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be stronger in 1997/98. Broiler, turkey, and egg production in 1998 are expected to increase from the expected 1997 levels and continue strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 1998 is expected to increase 6 percent from 1997 as producers respond to strong domestic and international demand as well as abundant feed supplies and lower prices. Even with reported turkey disease problems and low returns, turkey production in 1997 is expected to total 5.4 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from 1996. In 1998, turkey producers are expected to respond to lower feed prices and increase production by 5 percent from the expected 1997 output. Egg producers are expected to produce 6.7 billion dozen eggs in 1998, up 3 percent from the expected 1997 output. With these increases in production, feed needs by the poultry sector are likely to remain strong. FARM PRICE FORECASTS UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO REDUCTION IN SUPPLY As a result of reductions in production forecasts, there were small upward adjustments in most feed grain farm price forecasts for 1997/98. The season average price received by farmers for corn was raised 5 cents to $2.30-$2.70 per bushel. Similarly, the sorghum price was increased 5 cents to $2.05-$2.45 per bushel, along with barley, up 5 cents to $2.15-$2.55 per bushel. There was no change in oats. Market price expectations for feed grains continued to fall in recent weeks, reflecting widespread assumptions that the 1997 corn crop will be very large. This has pulled down old-crop prices, as well as those for new crops. By the second week of July, the December futures contract for corn was trading around $2.35 per bushel, down about 25 cents over the last month. There was little, if any, risk premium assumed at this price level. Although the weather pattern to date has dampened market volatility, there is considerable scope for price spikes in the next 3 weeks or so as the crop goes through the pollination stage. Cash corn prices have also been in a downtrend over the past several weeks. Central Illinois cash prices for old-crop corn touched under $2.30 a bushel in early July, before a slight rebound. New crop bids are similarly low over most of the country. It was about a year ago that cash prices reached an all-time high of over $5.00 when users feared corn supplies might run out. FOREIGN COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION FORECAST UP 4 MILLION TONS Forecast foreign production in 1997/98 is raised this month due to larger EU corn and barley output, along with larger barley, oats, and rye crops in Russia that more than offset reduced forecasts for Canada. Barley in Spain was not as affected by drought as previously thought, and more area was reported planted to both corn and barley in France. Lower corn area and production in Canada was only partly offsetting. However, the trade implications of the increased production are not very large. Most of the increased production in the EU and Russia is expected to be consumed internally or remain in stocks at the end of 1997/98. There were some small adjustments in world barley trade this month. The forecast of Australia's 1997/98 barley exports was cut slightly, as more barley is processed domestically to maintain malt exports at last year's level, even with reduced supplies, leaving less to be exported as grain. However, this was about offset by increased barley exports by Canada and the EU. Forecast 1996/97 world barley trade is up 600,000 tons this month, mainly due to recent purchases by Saudi Arabia. Tightening sorghum supplies in the United States are expected to slow the pace of exports to Mexico and Japan for the remainder of 1996/97 and reduce prospects in 1997/98. ***************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * International: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released August 13, 1997. * ***************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,946 487 2,819 6,904 2.96 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 398 1,490 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,116 425 2,003 2,495 2.76 Jun-Aug 2,495 --- 2 2,497 443 749 389 1,581 916 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 12 9,731 1,690 5,300 1,825 8,815 916 2.70 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 916 9,700 10 10,626 1,780 5,600 2,050 9,430 1,196 2.30-2.70 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.36 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.50 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.25 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 85 60 157 117 2.41 Jun-Aug 117 --- 0 117 7 29 35 71 46 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 525 210 775 46 2.33 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 46 643 0 689 35 375 200 610 79 2.05-2.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 397 9 505 44 138 7 190 316 3.18 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.73 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.57 Mar-May 173 --- 12 184 53 18 4 75 110 2.32 Mkt. yr. 100 397 37 533 172 220 31 423 110 2.75 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 110 372 40 522 172 245 35 452 70 2.15-2.55 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.08 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.83 Dec-Feb 129 --- 28 156 20 40 0.3 61 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 27 122 29 26 0.8 56 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 100 322 95 157 3.0 255 67 1.95 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 67 183 100 349 95 185 3 283 66 1.40-1.80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.5 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.3 10.2 4.76 3.3 158.5 7.4 165.9 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.4 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.0 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.2 -23.8 -5.8 -22.1 -15.6 -15.8 -15.6 0.8 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 42.5 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.3 2.2 0.4 0.5 31.3 -0.5 30.8 Jun-Aug 19.0 0.7 2.9 1.3 24.0 9.5 33.5 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.3 4.7 2.8 155.5 7.7 163.2 85.3 1.91 % Change 13.2 72.3 5.4 9.4 16.3 23.5 16.6 0.4 16.1 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 142.2 9.5 5.3 3.0 160.1 6.1 166.2 87.6 1.90 % Change 5.7 -28.6 12.8 5.0 2.9 -20.8 1.8 2.7 -0.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994/95 --------------1995/96----- --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-May May Sept-May May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 3.6 3.6 NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.8 172.4 102.2 116.2 82.5 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 27.1 28.8 24.5 23.8 20.1 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.3 117.6 116.3 NA NA (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 Monthly: 1996: Feb 3.71 4.18 7.25 7.25 3.00 3.47 2.31 Mar 3.92 4.34 7.38 7.50 2.86 NQ 2.47 Apr 4.47 4.80 8.16 8.44 2.99 NQ 2.56 May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 1997: Feb 2.71 3.08 4.80 5.03 2.01 2.75 1.94 Mar 2.90 3.25 5.47 5.42 2.22 NQ 1.99 Apr 2.87 3.17 5.21 5.37 2.33 2.73 1.88 May 2.74 3.01 5.04 5.17 2.45 NQ 1.81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 88.20 Monthly: 1996: Feb 216.70 202.80 122.10 342.50 217.60 144.00 118.70 84.60 Mar 215.70 195.60 122.00 341.25 216.50 145.00 128.90 85.50 Apr 237.90 206.25 127.40 336.50 212.90 156.60 148.00 93.40 May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 100.00 1997: Feb 253.60 183.75 102.75 335.60 258.80 149.00 96.20 115.00 Mar 270.40 189.10 100.90 340.00 285.00 148.50 97.10 116.00 Apr 277.70 189.10 95.90 342.50 287.70 136.80 86.40 123.00 May 296.00 193.75 83.60 355.75 277.60 128.50 82.90 127.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.7 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 386.4 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 144.5 62.3 55.5 112.6 34.0 33.9 442.7 Mkt year 505.0 240.0 225.0 435.0 130.0 134.6 1669.6 1997/98 Mkt year 530.0 245.0 230.0 485.0 133.0 136.0 1759.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1996: Mar 17.87 13.77 25.50 13.15 15.50 Apr 19.46 15.36 25.50 13.15 16.19 May 20.28 16.19 25.50 13.15 17.45 Jun 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 1997: Mar 17.02 12.92 25.50 13.15 12.95 Apr 16.94 12.84 25.50 13.15 13.55 May 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 13.61 Jun 2/ 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 13.37 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-Apr Mkt. yr. Sep-Apr. Sep-Apr. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 10,200 15,303 10,276 10,325 Taiwan 6,027 3,919 5,938 3,917 3,922 Former USSR 140 55 34 27 69 South Africa 187 58 347 347 81 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 314 321 307 129 EU 2,836 1,776 2,842 2,347 1,180 Egypt 2,569 1,672 2,167 1,768 1,608 Canada 1,096 574 808 418 672 China 3,240 1,479 2,207 2,207 53 East Europe 112 67 188 188 103 Algeria 1,000 867 522 413 607 S. Korea 8,005 5,262 8,285 6,196 4,699 Mexico 2,985 2,187 6,453 3,849 2,061 Others 10,723 7,078 11,077 9,202 7,936 Total 55,218 35,508 56,494 41,461 33,445 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 1,661 1,759 1,091 1,643 Japan 2,050 1,568 1,617 1,315 1,648 Others 1,008 724 1,591 1,325 772 Total 5,615 3,952 4,968 3,731 4,063 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Jun-Apr Mkt. yr. Jun-Apr Jun-Apr BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 135 373 373 88 Israel 468 447 42 42 28 Jordan 51 51 0 0 50 Others 671 611 932 843 586 Total 1,392 1,244 1,347 1,258 753 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June-Apr Mkt. yr. June-Apr June-Apr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 1,065 1,302 1,251 1,347 Finland 374 374 22 22 76 Sweden 70 70 62 62 140 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 1,509 1,387 1,336 1,564 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 632 740 637 498 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 632 740 637 498 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 684 141 126 174 Other 16 16 6 1 0 Total 1/ 719 700 147 127 175 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE