FEED OUTLOOK August 13, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is a monthly report issued electronically by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No printed copies available. FDS-0897. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1997 Corn Crop Forecast at 9,276 Million Bushels o 1997 Sorghum Production Drops, Barley and Oats Up Slightly o All Hay Production To Increase But Alfalfa To Decline o 1997/98 Corn Ending Stocks Projected at 847 Million Bushels FEEDGRAIN PRODUCTION FORECAST CUT FOR 1997/98; MARKET OUTLOOK TIGHTENS The forecast of U.S. feed grain production is down substantially from last month's projection, reflecting poorer prospects for corn and sorghum. Feed grain output in 1997 is forecast at 262.6 million metric tons, down about 11 million tons from a month ago and about 5 million less than 1996. Similarly, feed grain supply is also down significantly from a month ago, but is still higher than 1996/97 due to larger carryin stocks. With strong demand prospects, the reduction in supply tightens the outlook considerably. Instead of modest growth from the year before, ending stocks of feed grains in 1997/98 are now expected to shrink to 25.6 million tons. This is 3 million tons less than the relatively low stocks forecast for 1996/97. This will provide more support for feed grain prices, which are all forecast higher than last month. Developments overseas also contribute to the tighter outlook, as the projection of foreign production was cut. Most of the reduction occurred in China's corn crop, but the trade impact is expected to be fairly small because of China's huge stocks. CORN PRODUCTION DOWN SHARPLY FROM INITIAL PROJECTION Corn production in 1997 is forecast at 9,276 million bushels, down 424 million from last month's projection and slightly below last year. This is the first survey-based forecast of the season and it reflected August 1 conditions. The average yield is forecast at 125.3 bushels per acre, down from the initial, above-trend projection of 131 bushels, and below the 1996 yield of 127.1 bushels. Crop conditions deteriorated in many areas during July largely because of dryness and also heat stress. Concern tended to focus on parts of Illinois, the Nation's second largest corn-growing State, but conditions also deteriorated elsewhere in the Corn Belt, such as parts of Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa. Conditions also declined in some of the smaller-growing States, including Kentucky and Pennsylvania. In contrast, the crop outlook is very favorable in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Texas. Growing conditions over the next month will still have an important impact on yield potential in most areas. Nationally, 58 percent of the crop was rated good or excellent as of August 10, compared with 64 percent at the same time in 1996. Crop progress has been ahead of average, with 96 percent of the crop silking by August 10. ENDING STOCKS OF CORN PROJECTED TO DECLINE IN 1997/98 Ending stocks of corn are projected at 847 million bushels in 1997/98, down 349 million from a month ago. A small increase in carryin stocks and a reduction in feed and residual use were more than offset by the sharp drop in production. If current forecasts are realized, this will be the third consecutive year that corn stocks fall under 1 billion bushels. Lower inventories will strengthen prices and will tend to keep the market more sensitive to export developments. Total use of corn is projected at 9,380 million bushels in 1997/98, down 50 million from last month, but nearly matching the record high of 9,404 million in 1994/95. Feed and residual use was reduced 50 million bushels to 5,550 million in light of tighter supplies and higher expected prices. The export forecast for 1997/98 was unchanged but the 1996/97 forecast was cut 25 million bushels, accounting for a corresponding increase in 1997/98 beginning stocks. SORGHUM CROP FORECAST TRIMMED 2 PERCENT Sorghum production is expected to reach 629 million bushels in 1997, according to the first survey-based forecast. This is down 14 million bushels from last month's projection, but 174 million below last year's bumper crop. Yields are forecast at 66.2 bushels per acre, down slightly from the earlier projected trend yield of 67.6 bushels. Most of the year-to-year decline in production reflects lower acreage. Among the major producing States, only Texas is expected to have a bigger crop in 1997, with better yield prospects accounting for the gain. Crop conditions have been relatively favorable, with 62 percent of the crop rated good or excellent by August 10, compared with 65 percent a year earlier. In addition, beneficial rains fell in early August in the Southern Plains. Projected ending stocks of sorghum in 1997/98 were lowered this month from 79 million bushels to 61 million. This reflects an increase in prospective feed and residual use along with the lower crop. The export forecasts for 1996/97 and 1997/98 were each reduced 5 million bushels. BARLEY PRODUCTION FORECAST UP SLIGHTLY Barley production in 1997 is forecast at 380 million bushels, up slightly from last month but down 4 percent from 1996. Yields are forecast at 59.4 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from a month ago and nearly a bushel above last year. The 1997 barley crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition as of the week ending August 3. Early July precipitation helped boost yields, but wet, cool conditions have promoted the development of head diseases, such as scab, in North Dakota and Minnesota. Barley supplies in 1997/98 are expected to be down 1 percent from the 533 million bushels available last year. In 1997/98, beginning stocks were 10 million bushels larger than in 1996/97, helping to offset the expected decline in production. Imports in 1997/98 may take up some of the slack and be up from last year. However, supplies from Canada will be tighter than last year and Australian barley production will also be down. Given the reduced supplies for 1997/98 and the continued strong use, ending stocks are forecast down 34 percent from the 110 million bushels in 1996/97. Barley exports, which were off sharply in 1996/97, are expected to increase 45 percent, while feed use of barley is expected to be up 20 million bushels. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED Oats production in 1997 is forecast at 187 million bushels, also up slightly from last month, and up 21 percent from 1996. The average yield is forecast at 58.1 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from July, mainly due to improvements in Iowa and North Dakota. The crop has benefited from cool conditions in some areas and timely rains in others. For example in Indiana, Ohio, and Iowa, yields are up from last month and a year ago, but in Michigan yields were down even with cool weather because of dry weather. Wisconsin is forecast to produce more oats than any other State in 1997, while South Dakota, which was first last year, may slip to second place, because of reduced acres harvested. ALL HAY PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE All hay production is forecast at 153.9 million tons in 1997, up 3 percent from 1996 despite a drop in alfalfa. Yields of all hay are forecast to increase 3 percent from 2.45 tons per acre in 1996. Yields account for all of the increase in production because harvested acres are down 222,000 from the 61 million harvested in 1996. However, for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, the 1-percent increase in yield from 1996 doesn't offset the 3-percent decline in area. As a result, alfalfa hay and alfalfa mixtures production in 1997 is forecast at 77.8 million tons, down 2 percent from last year. Other hay production is forecast up nearly 9 percent from the 70 million tons produced in 1996, as both area and yield are up from 1996. Favorable growing conditions in most areas during the spring and summer months benefited all hay crops. Production increases were common throughout the Western, Southeastern, and Corn Belt States. Declines were common in the Northern Plains, Appalachian, and Northeastern States. Of the major alfalfa and alfalfa mixture producing States, North Dakota showed the largest decline from 1996, down 46 percent, followed by Nebraska, down 16 percent, and Michigan, down 13 percent. Dry conditions have hurt yields in North Dakota and Nebraska, especially in western North Dakota. The coldest May on record in Michigan along with a dry June and July have reduced yields. Texas showed the largest increase in other hay production in 1997, up 71 percent from 1996, and, if realized, a new State record. Prices for all hay received by farmers dropped in July from June but were still above a year ago. Prices for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures in July were down from June but $13.10 per ton above 1996 and $28.80 per ton above the 1990-92 average. The smaller crop and strong demand from the dairy sector for alfalfa hay have kept prices high. In July, prices of other hay received by farmers were lower than the prior month and the year earlier, reflecting the increase in supplies. Prices of other hay in July, at $72.40 per ton, were $12.40 per ton higher than the 1990-92 average for July. Hay prices are expected to remain strong in the 1997 marketing year because of relatively tight supplies and strong demand. PRICE FORECASTS RAISED FOR 1997/98 BECAUSE OF TIGHTER SUPPLIES Season -average farm price forecasts were increased for each feed grain this month. The corn price is up 20 cents to $2.50-2.90 per bushel, with the mid-point about equal to the average expected for 1996/97. The sorghum price was also raised 20 cents to $2.25-$2.65 per bushel, reflecting tighter sorghum supplies as well as the influence of higher expected corn prices. The tone of the futures market changed markedly during July as concerns increased about the status of the corn crop in key regions. Prices for the December corn contract had slipped to under $2.30 bushel in early July when most traders expected a crop in the 10-billion-bushel range. Over the last month, weather reports played a key role as the price zig-zagged in an upward pattern, closing as high as $2.69 at one point in early August. Although old-crop corn supplies are more than adequate, prices have also moved upwards during July due to the influence of the 1997 crop price. Central Illinois cash corn prices climbed to as high as $2.61 a bushel by the beginning of August, up 30 cents in 3 weeks. Prices slid back under $2.50 by the second week of August. The price of corn received by farmers has been trending downward this summer, with the preliminary July price of $2.44 down 36 cents from the spring high reached in April. The barley price forecast for 1997/98 was raised 15 cents to $2.30-2.70 per bushel. One of the key factors that will shape the all barley price is the amount and quality of new-crop malting barley. The premium that malting barley receives over feed barley can vary significantly. In recent months, it has been relatively low. Prices received by farmers for barley in the first 2 months of the marketing year are sharply below last year. The all barley price in July was $2.10 per bushel vs. $3.18 in 1996. Feed barley was $2.03 vs. $3.14 and malting barley was $2.22 this year vs. $3.23 last year. While the season average price in 1997/98 is off to a much lower start than last year, little of the barley in the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest had been harvested by August 1. The forecast farm price of oats was raised 10 cents to $1.50-1.90 per bushel because of the generally tighter feed grain market. Oats supplies will be up from last year, however, and the price will decline from the strong $1.95 received in 1996/97. With the increased production of oats in 1997 and a 3- percent increase in imports, the price increase for oats is not as large as for corn or the other feed grains. The marketing year for oats begins in June, and prices for oats sold from the combine in June and July this year were lower than last year. WORLD COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION FORECAST SLASHED BY MORE THAN 22 MILLION TONS Forecast corn production in China was reduced 12 million tons this month, even more than the dramatic drop for the United States. Hot, dry weather in the North China plain during the critical reproductive stage reduced yields. Planted area was down from a year earlier because of more favorable prices for soybeans. With lower yields, the 1997/98 crop is expected to be down 14 percent from last year's record. But at 110 million tons, it would still be the third largest corn crop on record. China is carrying large stocks from previous years' production, but will have to draw down these stocks dramatically to maintain consumption growth and support a reduced level of exports. China's corn exports in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.0 million tons, down from 2.75 million expected in 1996/97. As the year progresses, China's corn exports are expected to slow, and some regions located near the coast and away from the surplus growing areas are expected to import corn. Dry conditions in both Australia and Canada, important barley exporters, reduced production prospects by a combined 2 million tons. Because of strong domestic feed demand and relatively tight stocks prospects, much of the drop in production is expected to be reflected in reduced exports--especially for feed barley. With fairly strong demand for barley from Saudi Arabia, the EU is expected to increase barley exports and feed more wheat domestically. Projected 1997/98 U.S. corn exports remain unchanged this month. Reduced coarse grain export supplies from China, Australia, and Canada will support U.S. corn exports. However, with U.S. supplies also tight, prices are expected to be significantly higher than previously forecast, limiting the demand for U.S. corn. **************************************************************** Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 International: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 The next Feed Outlook will be released September 15, 1997. ******************************************************************* Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,946 487 2,819 6,904 2.96 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 398 1,490 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,110 431 2,003 2,495 2.76 Jun-Aug 2,495 --- 2 2,497 443 755 358 1,556 941 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 12 9,731 1,690 5,300 1,800 8,790 941 2.70 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 941 9,276 10 10,227 1,780 5,550 2,050 9,380 847 2.50-2.90 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 0.00 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.50 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.25 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 84 61 157 117 2.41 Jun-Aug 117 --- 0 117 7 30 29 66 51 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 525 205 770 51 2.33 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 51 629 0 681 35 390 195 620 61 2.25-2.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 397 9 505 44 138 7 190 316 3.18 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.73 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.57 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 74 110 2.32 Mkt. yr. 100 397 37 533 172 220 31 423 110 2.75 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 110 380 40 530 172 240 45 457 73 2.30-2.70 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.08 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.83 Dec-Feb 129 --- 28 156 20 40 0.3 61 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.95 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 67 187 100 361 95 190 3 288 66 1.50-1.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.5 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.3 10.2 4.76 3.3 158.5 7.4 165.9 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.4 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.0 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.2 -23.8 -5.8 -22.1 -15.6 -15.8 -15.6 0.8 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 42.5 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.2 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.1 -0.7 30.5 Jun-Aug 19.2 0.8 3.0 1.3 24.3 9.5 33.8 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.3 4.8 2.8 155.6 7.6 163.2 85.3 1.91 % Change 13.2 72.3 7.8 8.0 16.3 21.0 16.5 0.4 16.1 . 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 141.0 9.9 5.1 3.0 159.0 6.1 165.2 87.8 1.88 % Change 4.7 -25.7 5.8 9.0 2.2 -19.1 1.2 2.9 -1.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994/95 --------------1995/96----- --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Jun Jun Sept-Jun Jun ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 3.7 4.4 5/ 2.7 4.5 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.8 164.3 91.6 112.8 88.8 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 27.1 28.1 22.4 23.5 21.3 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.3 117.3 115.1 6/ 119.7 7/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. 5/ Jan - Jun average. 6/ Sep - Dec average. 7/ Data is discontinued. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 NA NA NA NA 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996: Mar 3.92 4.34 7.38 7.50 2.86 NQ 2.47 Apr 4.47 4.80 8.16 8.44 2.99 NQ 2.56 May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 Jun 4.74 4.99 8.57 7.95 3.22 3.28 2.11 1997: Mar 2.90 3.25 5.47 5.42 2.22 NQ 1.99 Apr 2.87 3.17 5.21 5.37 2.33 2.73 1.88 May 2.74 3.01 5.04 5.17 2.45 NQ 1.81 Jun 2.59 2.86 4.80 4.75 2.31 2.62 1.89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NA = Not available. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 97.20 Monthly: 1996: Mar 215.70 195.60 122.00 341.25 216.50 145.00 128.90 85.50 Apr 237.90 206.25 127.40 336.50 212.90 156.60 148.00 93.40 May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 100.00 Jun 227.90 192.20 122.10 315.00 231.80 190.00 127.80 96.90 1997: Mar 270.40 189.10 100.90 340.00 285.00 148.50 97.10 116.00 Apr 277.70 189.10 95.90 342.50 287.70 136.80 86.40 123.00 May 296.00 193.75 83.60 355.75 277.60 128.50 82.90 127.00 Jun 275.90 190.30 72.25 349.40 279.30 126.90 64.80 115.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NA = Not available. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.7 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 386.4 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 144.5 62.3 55.5 112.6 34.0 33.9 442.7 Mkt year 505.0 240.0 225.0 435.0 130.0 134.6 1669.6 1997/98 Mkt year 530.0 245.0 230.0 485.0 133.0 136.0 1759.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, dextrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1996: Apr 19.46 15.36 25.50 13.15 16.19 May 20.28 16.19 25.50 13.15 17.45 Jun 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 Jul 20.45 16.35 25.50 13.15 18.65 1997: Apr 16.94 12.84 25.50 13.15 13.55 May 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 13.61 Jun 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 13.37 Jul 2/ 16.20 12.10 25.50 13.15 13.37 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-May Mkt. yr. Sep-May Sep-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 11,718 15,303 11,782 11,662 Taiwan 6,027 4,571 5,938 4,601 4,311 Former USSR 140 140 34 27 70 South Africa 187 127 347 347 81 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 369 321 312 144 EU 2,836 2,354 2,842 2,696 1,356 Egypt 2,569 1,904 2,167 1,888 1,731 Canada 1,096 670 808 469 712 China 3,240 1,877 2,207 2,207 53 East Europe 112 67 188 188 103 Algeria 1,000 867 522 425 687 S. Korea 8,005 5,916 8,285 6,881 4,837 Mexico 2,985 2,408 6,453 4,807 2,379 Others 10,723 7,770 11,077 9,838 8,432 Total 55,218 40,758 56,494 46,467 36,556 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 2,001 1,759 1,202 1,854 Japan 2,050 1,713 1,617 1,385 1,744 Others 1,008 811 1,591 1,347 825 Total 5,615 4,525 4,968 3,934 4,423 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Jun-May Jun-May Jun-May BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 373 88 Israel 468 42 28 Jordan 51 0 50 Others 671 932 613 Total 1,392 1,347 779 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 June-May June-May June-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 1,302 1,440 Finland 374 22 99 Sweden 70 62 140 Other 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 1,387 1,680 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 740 608 Other 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 740 609 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 141 191 Other 16 6 0 Total 1/ 719 147 192 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE