FEED OUTLOOK September 15, 1997 September 1997, FDS-0997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is a monthly report issued electronically by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No published copies are available. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Production Forecast Virtually Unchanged o Sorghum Crop Forecast Raised 4 Percent o Projected 1997/98 Ending Stocks of Corn Up 17 Million Bushels o Projected 1997/98 Corn Exports Reduced 25 Million Bushels FEED GRAIN OUTLOOK LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MONTH The forecast of U.S. feed grain production is up slightly, as an increase in sorghum outweighs small declines in corn and barley. Feed grain production is forecast at 263 million metric tons, up 400,000 tons from last month. There was a small decline in prospective feed grain use, mainly due to lower expected corn exports. Forecast use of sorghum is up because of small increases in feed and residual and exports, while an increase in forecast barley exports is offset by reduced feed and residual. Compared with 1996/97, feed grain production is forecast to drop more than 4 million tons. This is more than offset by larger forecast carryin stocks, however, and feed grain supplies are up nearly 10 million tons. Nevertheless, the 1997/98 outlook is relatively tight because of strong prospective demand. Solid gains are expected in both domestic use and exports, and ending stocks are projected to fall 8 percent. While the barley and oats harvests are nearly complete, a bit ahead of the average pace, the bulk of the corn harvest has not yet begun. About a fifth of the sorghum crop had been harvested by early September, in line with the historical average. CORN CROP FORECAST AT 9,268 MILLION BUSHELS The forecast of 1997 corn production is down 8 million bushels from last month to 9,268 million bushels, and down only marginally from last year. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 125.2 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month, and 1.9 bushels from 1996. There were few changes among the individual States this month. In the seven States where objective yield surveys are taken, a record stalk count is indicated. However, ear lengths are smaller than average, holding down potential yields. After a very promising start to the season, crop conditions generally deteriorated from early July through the middle of August. Rains in the last few weeks brought relief to some dry areas, but they were frequently spotty in coverage, and, in some cases, were too late to make that great a difference. Harvesting in the major Corn Belt growing areas is expected to start in the later half of September. Despite reduced crop expectations, the crop is still forecast to be the fourth largest ever. There appears to be potential for yield forecasts to move either way as the harvest progresses. Given moderately tight supplies, the market will remain sensitive to forecasts until the harvest is done. A 2-bushel change in the average yield would result in a change of about 150 million bushels this year. PROJECTED 1997/98 ENDING STOCKS OF CORN UP 17 MILLION BUSHELS A 25-million-bushel reduction in the corn export forecast and the 8-million-bushel cut in production account for an increase in 1997/98 ending stocks to 864 million bushels. Even with the decline in the export forecast, total use of corn is projected to be large at 9,355 million bushels. This is only about 50 million bushels less than the 1994/95 record. Projected stocks remain low, and the ratio of stocks to use is projected at 9.2 percent, down from the 10.7 percent expected in 1996/97. SORGHUM CROP FORECAST RAISED FROM LAST MONTH Beneficial rains in August boosted sorghum production to an expected 653 million bushels in 1997, up 24 million from last month. However, this is 150 million bushels below last year's bumper crop. Yields are forecast at 68.7 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from August and 1.2 bushels above last year. Most of the year-to-year decline in production reflects lower acreage. Crop conditions have been relatively favorable, with 70 percent of the crop rated good or excellent on September 7, compared with 76 percent a year earlier. On September 7, 70 percent of the sorghum was coloring this year as opposed to 68 percent last year, and 64 percent for the 5 year average. The maturity of the crop was behind the 5-year average with 26 percent mature, down from 32 percent. With more production, supplies of sorghum are up from last month but still down 12 percent from last year. Ending stocks, exports, and feed and residual use are expected to be up from last month's estimate. Ending stocks in 1997/98 may be up 35 percent from the expected 51 million bushels in 1996/97. In 1997/98, exports may be marginally down from the 205 million bushels expected in 1996/97. The big adjustment is expected to occur in feed and residual use which is forecast to drop 24 percent from 1996/97's 525 million bushels. BARLEY EXPORTS OFF TO FAST START Barley production in 1997 is forecast at 379 million bushels, virtually unchanged from last month. Yields are forecast at 59.3 bushels per acre, down slightly from a month ago, but nearly a bushel above last year. The 1997 barley crop was 88 percent harvested as of September 7, up from the 5-year average of 78 percent. Early July precipitation helped boost yields, but wet, cool conditions have promoted the development of diseases, such as scab, in North Dakota and Minnesota. Average barley prices may be slightly lower if these head diseases result in less barley suitable for malting and more sold for feed. The export forecast for 1997/98 was raised 10 million bushels from last month to 55 million, based on strong sales thus far in the marketing year, mainly to Japan, Saudi Arabia, and unknown destinations. This is up 78 percent from 1996/97. With less barley available for other uses, feed and residual use was trimmed 10 million bushels from last month to 230 million, but still up 5 percent from last year. PRICE EXPECTATIONS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY The forecasts of season average prices received by farmers were reduced 5 cents for each feed grain this month. This largely reflects early season weakness in the corn price, stemming from sluggish export sales. The farm corn price is forecast at $2.45-2.85 per bushel in 1997/98. The midpoint of the forecast is slightly below the 1996/97 price despite a slightly tighter outlook. This is because the 1996/97 average was pulled up by very high prices at the onset of the marketing year before supplies were replenished. In addition to the strong influence of corn on the other feed grains, average barley prices in 1997/98 are expected to be slightly weaker on expectations of a smaller proportion of barley sold for malting. Many buyers in Asian markets have been purchasing corn from China in recent weeks, and there is little urgency to buy from the United States. Sales typically peak during the early fall as importers attempt to hit harvest time lows in prices. Corn prices could strengthen considerably if and when China halts export sales. After approaching a high close to $2.80 per bushel in late August, futures prices for corn have been mostly running around $2.70 per bushel recently. Cash prices have been relatively steady over the last month, with Central Illinois corn prices in the $2.60-2.70 range. FOREIGN COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION REVISED UP THIS MONTH, BUT STILL DOWN FROM A YEAR AGO Foreign coarse grain production in 1997/98 is forecast at 619 million tons, up 6 million from last month, but almost 17 million tons below a year earlier. Preliminary harvest reports boosted barley production in the EU, Eastern Europe, and Russia. The same regions of Europe had favorable growing conditions for corn, raising production prospects. In Eastern Europe, especially Romania, increased production boosted projected exports. Increased corn, barley, and feed wheat production in Europe may provide competition for U.S. corn. Heavy rain during wheat harvests in some regions from the U.K. to Ukraine will boost the amount of wheat in Europe that is not of milling quality. However, it is unclear how much will be exported or consumed internally or stocked. U.S. CORN EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED AS CHINA CONTINUES TO SELL CORN Forecast 1997/98 U.S. corn exports declined 25 million bushels this month to 2,025 million. The decrease was caused by increased corn exports from China and Eastern Europe. For China, the pace of shipments boosted the 1996/97 export forecast 750,000 tons to 3.5 million, and the forecast for 1997/98 was raised 500,000 tons to 1.5 million, despite poor prospects for China's new crop. U.S. corn exports are expected to post a strong 13 percent year-to-year gain in 1997/98 because of less competition from other exporters. Along with China, Argentina and South Africa, normally the major foreign corn exporters, are also expected to have reduced supplies in 1997/98. Production prospects are down based on reduced area, but the Southern Hemisphere crops are produced late in the year, so trend yields are assumed. The expected increase in U.S. corn exports is based on supply and demand fundamentals, not on the pace of pre-season sales. At the start of the year, on September 4, according to U.S. Export Sales, outstanding sales were 7.7 million tons, about half of a year ago, when early sales were unusually high. Contributing to the slower start this year are more early season competition and less concern on the part of importers about supply availability. Last summer, U.S. corn supplies were critically tight because of the short 1995 crop. Prices were high, and importers were worried that not enough corn would be available, so they purchased more in advance than usual. It is more reasonable to compare this year's early sales to the 1990-94 average of 7.5 million tons than to last year's exceptional sales. Moreover, this year, China and Argentina have been marketing old-crop supplies during the summer, cutting into advance sales of U.S. corn. However, this competition is expected to wane as old-crop supplies are used up, and U.S. export sales are expected to increase. China's 1997/98 corn production has been hit by drought in many major producing areas. High temperatures, especially in mid-July, have also harmed the crop. While the production forecast is unchanged this month at 110 million tons, it is down 13 percent from a year ago. China has a key role in world corn markets, both as an exporter and importer. For example, in 1993/94 China exported 12 million tons, and then in the next year imported 4 million. In 1996/97 China produced a bumper crop of 127 million tons, pumped up exports, and built up huge stocks. China's corn supplies in 1997/98 are projected at 151 million tons, down from last year, but above any other year. China has continued to sell old-crop stocks for export in 1997/98, even though production losses are verified, because large supplies remain in Northern China. Moreover, the corn being exported was reportedly purchased as early as 1995, at relatively low procurement prices. Although domestic market prices have recently increased, China's old-crop supplies remain competitively priced in export markets. ****************************************************************** Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 International: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 The next Feed Outlook will be released October 14, 1997. ****************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,946 487 2,819 6,904 2.95 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 398 1,490 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,110 431 2,003 2,495 2.76 Jun-Aug 2,495 --- 2 2,497 443 755 358 1,556 941 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 12 9,731 1,690 5,300 1,800 8,790 941 2.70 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 941 9,268 10 10,219 1,780 5,550 2,025 9,355 864 2.45-2.85 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 0.00 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.52 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.25 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 84 61 157 117 2.41 Jun-Aug 117 --- 0 117 7 30 29 66 51 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 525 205 770 51 2.34 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 51 653 0 705 35 400 200 635 70 2.20-2.60 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 397 9 505 44 138 7 190 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 74 110 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 397 37 533 172 220 31 423 110 2.74 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 110 379 40 529 172 230 55 457 72 2.25-2.65 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.06 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.84 Dec-Feb 129 --- 28 156 20 40 0.3 61 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 67 187 100 354 95 190 3 288 66 1.45-1.85 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.5 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.3 10.2 4.76 3.3 158.5 7.4 165.9 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.4 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.0 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.2 -23.8 -5.8 -22.1 -15.6 -15.8 -15.6 0.8 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 42.5 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.2 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.1 -0.7 30.5 Jun-Aug 19.2 0.8 3.0 1.3 24.3 9.5 33.8 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.3 4.8 2.8 155.6 7.6 163.2 85.3 1.91 % Change 13.2 72.3 7.8 8.0 16.3 21.0 16.5 0.3 16.1 . 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 141.0 10.2 5.0 3.0 159.1 6.1 165.3 87.2 1.90 % Change 4.7 -23.8 3.5 9.0 2.2 -19.1 1.3 2.2 -0.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994/95 --------------1995/96----- --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Jul Jul Sept-Jul Jul ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 3.7 4.4 5/ NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.8 158.0 94.4 110.4 87.0 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 27.1 27.7 23.2 23.3 20.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.3 117.2 115.1 6/ 119 7/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. 5/ Jan - Jun average. 6/ Sep - Dec average. 7/ D Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 NA NA NA 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996: Apr 4.47 4.80 8.16 8.44 2.99 NQ 2.56 May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 Jun 4.74 4.99 8.57 7.95 3.22 3.28 2.11 Jul 4.70 5.07 8.35 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 1997: Apr 2.87 3.17 5.21 5.37 2.33 2.73 1.88 May 2.74 3.01 5.04 5.17 2.45 NQ 1.81 Jun 2.59 2.86 4.80 4.75 2.31 2.62 1.89 Jul 2.44 2.69 4.70 4.36 2.04 1.74 1.76 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NA = Not available. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 97.20 Monthly: 1996: Apr 237.90 206.25 127.40 336.50 212.90 156.60 148.00 93.40 May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 100.00 Jun 227.90 192.20 122.10 315.00 231.80 190.00 127.80 96.90 Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 1997: Apr 277.70 189.10 95.90 342.50 287.70 136.80 86.40 123.00 May 296.00 193.75 83.60 355.75 277.60 128.50 82.90 127.00 Jun 275.90 190.30 72.25 349.40 279.30 126.90 64.80 115.00 Jul 261.49 170.75 70.40 337.00 271.41 125.00 61.50 106.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NA = Not available. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.7 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 386.4 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 144.5 62.3 55.5 112.6 34.0 33.9 442.7 Mkt year 505.0 240.0 225.0 435.0 130.0 134.6 1669.6 1997/98 Mkt year 530.0 245.0 230.0 485.0 133.0 136.0 1759.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, dextrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.84 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1996: May 20.28 16.19 25.50 13.15 17.45 Jun 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 Jul 20.45 16.35 25.50 13.15 18.65 Aug 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 1997: May 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 13.61 Jun 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 13.37 Jul 16.20 12.10 25.50 13.15 13.37 Aug 2/ 16.48 12.43 25.50 13.15 13.05 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-Jun Mkt. yr. Sep-Jun Sep-Jun ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 13,174 15,303 12,857 12,555 Taiwan 6,027 5,130 5,938 5,024 4,609 Former USSR 140 140 34 27 87 South Africa 187 161 347 347 81 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 547 321 317 177 EU 2,836 2,445 2,842 2,791 1,555 Egypt 2,569 2,112 2,167 1,933 1,887 Canada 1,096 799 808 578 712 China 3,240 2,166 2,207 2,207 53 East Europe 112 67 188 188 103 Algeria 1,000 944 522 493 702 S. Korea 8,005 6,461 8,285 7,521 4,946 Mexico 2,985 2,526 6,453 5,486 2,770 Others 10,723 8,343 11,077 10,179 9,191 Total 55,218 45,015 56,494 49,947 39,428 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 2,158 1,759 1,365 1,916 Japan 2,050 1,805 1,617 1,432 1,809 Others 1,008 938 1,591 1,368 862 Total 5,615 4,901 4,968 4,165 4,587 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. June Mkt. yr. June June BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 373 0 88 0 139 Israel 42 19 28 7 0 Jordan 0 0 50 0 0 Others 932 74 613 55 23 Total 1,347 93 779 62 162 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. June Mkt. yr. June June ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 157 1,440 31 106 Finland 22 8 99 0 0 Sweden 62 62 140 0 0 Other 0 40 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,387 267 1,680 31 106 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 88 608 77 88 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 740 88 609 77 88 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 13 191 24 20 Other 6 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 147 13 192 24 20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE