FEED OUTLOOK October 14, 1997 October 1997, FDS-1097 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Crop Forecast Up Slightly from Last Month and Last Year o Sorghum Production Inches Up, Small Reductions in Barley and Oats o Higher Than Expected Use in Last Quarter Trims 1996/97 Corn Stocks o Forecast of Corn Feed and Residual Use Raised for 1997/98 LOWER CARRYIN AND HIGHER USE TIGHTEN FEED GRAIN SITUATION The outlook for U.S. feed grains in 1997/98 has tightened despite a small increase in the production forecast this month. Supplies are down slightly as a reduction in beginning stocks outweighs the gain in production. In addition, feed grain use is up due to higher prospective feed and residual use of corn and sorghum, and higher exports of barley. As a result, feed grain ending stocks are projected down about 2 million metric tons from a month ago. Modest increases in the production forecasts of corn and sorghum more than offset small reductions in the barley and oats crop estimates. Feed grain production is forecast at 264.1 million metric tons, up 1.1 million from last month, but 3 million tons below 1996/97. Even with this month's cut in beginning stocks, feed grain supplies in 1997/98 are still expected to be 9 million tons greater than the year before. However, total feed grain use is projected to be 12 million tons higher than in 1996/97 at a near-record 269.7 million tons. Ending stocks of feed grains are now projected at 24.3 million tons in 1997/98, down from 27 million in 1996/97. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 9,312 MILLION BUSHELS Based on conditions as of October 1, the U.S. corn crop in 1997 is forecast at 9,312 million bushels, up 44 million from last month and 18 million above last year. The average yield is forecast at 125.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from a month ago, but 1.3 bushels lower than 1996. A handful of States, including Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Michigan, accounted for this month's increase. There were slight reductions for Indiana, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. Conditions in September and early October across the Corn Belt were very favorable for the maturing corn crop, and there were no major frost problems. Initial harvest results have been quite variable, however, reflecting the variability in growing conditions at critical times earlier in the summer. Nationally, 15 percent of the crop was harvested by October 5, but most of this was in the southern States. In the major producing areas of the Midwest, little corn was harvested as farmers concentrated on harvesting soybeans first, in part to try to capture market premiums for early soybeans. CORN USE RAISED FOR 1997/98, ENDING STOCKS FORECAST DOWN TO 781 MILLION BUSHELS Total use of corn is projected at 9,425 million bushels in 1997/98, up 70 million from the month before due to higher feed and residual use. If realized, this would eclipse the old record of 9,405 million bushels set in 1994/95. Feed and residual use of corn is forecast at a record 5,625 million bushels, up 75 million because of the strong pace of use in the last quarter of 1996/97 and reductions in the prospective feeding of barley and oats. There were no changes in the U.S. corn export forecast this month. China's export sales and shipments in the next few weeks continue to be a source of uncertainty in the export outlook (see discussion below). With a lower carryin and higher use more than offsetting the increase in forecast production, carryout stocks are projected at 781 million bushels, down 83 million from last month. CARRYOVER ENDING STOCKS BELOW EXPECTATIONS AT 884 MILLION BUSHELS Corn stocks as of September 1, 1997, were reported at 884 million bushels. Stocks held on farms were 475 million bushels, or 54 percent of the total, while off-farm stocks were 409 million. Both were up sharply from the depressed position a year earlier. Corn disappearance in the 1996/97 marketing year is estimated at 8,848 million bushels, up from previous expectations because of stronger feed and residual use in the summer months. Disappearance for the June-August quarter was 1,616 million bushels, the third highest after 1994/95 and 1991/92. This was also up sharply from the 1,295 million of June-August 1995/96, when short supplies and record prices constrained corn use. While corn exports declined markedly in 1996/97, both food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and feed and residual use rebounded from the year before (see table 1). The breakout among use categories is subject to slight changes, pending the release of final trade data for August and some final estimates for certain industrial uses. ETHANOL EXPECTED TO LEAD CORN FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN 1997/98 The food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1997/98 is forecast at 1,775 million bushels, up from 1,690 million in 1996/97. There were only minor adjustments in these estimates this month. FSI use at this level would represent 17 percent of all corn used in 1997/98, the same percentage as in 1996/97, but down 1 percent from 1995/96. In first-quarter 1996/97, ethanol producers did not get back up to year earlier production because of relatively high corn prices and the process of restarting processing plants. As a result, some areas that would have used ethanol to blend for the winter oxygenate season, used competing oxygenates instead. This summer, corn was available to produce ethanol. Ethanol producers have increased stocks and contracted with gasoline producers and blenders to provide ethanol for the winter oxygenate season. Thus corn used for ethanol production in 1997/98 is expected to total 475 million bushels, up from 427 million in 1996/97. Corn used in wet-mill operations in 1997/98 is expected to be up nearly 3 percent from the 977 million bushels used in 1996/97. High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) may be up 4 percent from 1996/97. Unlike 1996/97, when corn use was up 5 percent because of new plant construction and HFCS prices were forced down by increased supplies, new plant construction that would boost corn use is not expected in 1997/98. Another complicating factor in the HFCS market is the increased tariffs imposed by Mexico that may limit exports in 1997/98. Increased demand for glucose and dextrose is anticipated and corn use may expand 3 percent from 1996/97's expected 243 million bushels. In 1997/98, starch production is expected to increase corn use 3 percent as the economy stays strong and industrial uses of starch remain strong. In 1996/97, corn used for starch production totaled 229 million bushels, up 4 percent from 1995/96 when high prices and tight corn supplies slowed starch use. SORGHUM PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 664 MILLION BUSHELS Prospects for the sorghum crop continued to improve, buoyed by favorable late season conditions. Production is forecast at 664 million bushels in 1997, up 11 million from the month before. Increased production is indicated for many States, including Kansas, the largest producing State, while only Nebraska showed a decline. The average yield is forecast at 69.9 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from September, and the third highest on record. Although production and supply of sorghum will be down from a year ago, some farmers may encounter more difficulties in marketing their crop. In particular, grain supplies, including wheat, in Kansas are very large, taxing storage facilities after a record large wheat harvest in the State. Logistics may also be aggravated by transportation problems in many areas due to severe rail congestion. Forecast feed and residual use of sorghum in 1997/98 was increased 25 million bushels this month to 425 million. With the supply up just slightly because of larger production, projected ending stocks were reduced to 52 million bushes. Sorghum stocks on September 1, 1997, were 47 million bushels, close to expectations. Total disappearance for the 1996/97 marketing year is estimated at 774 million bushels, the highest in 7 years, as a dramatic increase in supply and lower relative prices brought a big gain in sorghum feeding. FINAL CROP ESTIMATES SLIP FOR BARLEY AND OATS Barley production in 1997 is estimated at 374 million bushels, according to the Small Grains report. This is down 5 million from the September 12 forecast because of lower yields. The national yield averaged 58.3 bushels per acre, down slightly from 1996. For both barley and oats, harvests are virtually complete. The 1997 oats crop is estimated at 176 million bushels, down 11 million from the last forecast made in August, but the largest crop in 3 years. The final yield estimate, at 60.5 bushels per acre, was raised 2.4 bushels from the previous forecast. Yields increased in many important producing States, including North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. However, acres harvested for grain declined 10 percent. In several areas of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, farmers harvested more oats acres for hay than earlier planned because of a regional hay shortage and low yields for grain. STRONG EXPORTS HIGHLIGHT BARLEY OUTLOOK Forecast barley exports were raised again this month because of the strong pace of shipments and sales to date. Exports for 1997/98 are expected to reach 70 million bushels, up 15 million from last month and more than double the 1996/97 quantity. This will be the highest in 5 years, despite the absence of the Export Enhancement Program, because of strong import demand and weak competitor sales (see international discussion below). The robust pace of exports is expected to pull some barley from domestic use, and the forecast of feed and residual use is forecast at 185 million bushels, down 45 million from last month. There were no changes in the FSI forecast, despite some quality concerns stemming from disease. Food and industrial demand for barley is largely inelastic since substitution possibilities are limited. However, domestic supplies will be augmented by imports, which consist largely of malting barley. HAY SUPPLIES PER RCAU UP 2 PERCENT IN 1997/98 Hay production in 1997 is forecast at 152 million tons, down 1 percent from the August forecast, but up 2 percent from 1996. All of the increase is in the production of hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures. In 1997, all other hay is forecast at 74 million tons, up 6 percent because of higher area and yield. However, production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures in 1997 is forecast down 2 percent to 78 million tons. Even though yields of alfalfa hays in 1997 are up from last year, a decline in acreage reduced production. Hay yields tend to reflect weather problems, such as late spring frosts, a cool spring, and a dry summer and fall. In 22 of the 42 individual States that report alfalfa and alfalfa hay mixtures, yields were above last year. For States producing hay other than alfalfa, 17 of the 48 States had yields below last year. States that had a dry summer and fall, tended to show up in both lists, mainly in the eastern U.S. Hay supplies in the 1997/98 marketing year will be nearly the same as last year. The increase in production in 1997 offset nearly all of the decline in ending stocks. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAU's) are expected to be down in 1997/98, because of fewer cattle. As a result, hay supplies per RCAU in 1997/98 are expected to total 2.28 tons, up from 2.24 tons last year. Strong prices for hay in 1997/98 are expected mainly because of higher prices for alfalfa and alfalfa mixture hays. For example, the mid-month price for all hay received by farmers in September 1997 was $101 per ton, the same as in August, but up from $92.10 a year earlier. The price for alfalfa hay was $106, also the same as in August, and up from $95.70 in 1996. Larger production of other hays is moderating this impact. Prices of other hays in September were $75.60, up slightly from August's $74.70, but down from September 1996 when they were $77.80. FEED DEMAND UPDATE Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1997/98 is expected to increase 2 percent from the expected 166 million metric tons used in September 1996-August 1997. Feed and residual use in 1996/97 was up 18 percent from the year earlier when the short 1995 corn crop boosted prices and forced feeders to cut back. Corn, which accounted for 85 percent of feed and residual use in 1995/96, represented 82 percent of feed and residual use in 1996/97 and is expected to account for 85 percent in 1997/98. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1997/98 is expected to be up 3 percent from 1996/97's 85 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1997/98 would be 1.92 tons, down 1 percent from 1996/97, and up from 1.7 tons in 1995/96. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy and cattle on feed are down in 1997/98 and hogs plus poultry are up. Milk production in 1998 is expected to be about the same as the 156 billion pounds expected to be produced in 1997. Milk output per cow is expected to increase and the number of milk cows to decline. Thus, increases in milk production are not necessarily associated with increased cow numbers. On July 1, 1997 (latest data available), grain and other concentrates fed per dairy cow were 19.0 pounds, up from 18.3 in 1996. Commercial beef production for 1998 is expected to be down 2 percent from the 25.3 billion pounds expected in 1997. Cattle on feed on September 1 were up 16 percent from last year as placements in August continued strong. Still, with cattle inventories down and beef production projected to decline in 1998, feed demand would be expected to be weaker. Pork production in 1998 is expected to increase 9 percent from the 17 billion pounds expected in 1997, which was about the same as in 1996. Hog farmers on September 1 indicated that, compared with a year earlier, they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing during September-November 1997 by 7 percent and in December 1997-February 1998 by 8 percent. If these intentions are realized, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be stronger in 1997/98. Broiler, turkey, and egg production in 1998 are expected to increase from the expected 1997 levels and continue the strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 1998 is expected to increase 7 percent from 1997 as producers respond to strong domestic and international demand as well as abundant feed supplies and lower prices. Turkey production in 1997 is expected to total 5.5 million pounds, about the same as 1996. In 1998, turkey producers are expected to increase production 5 percent from the expected 1997 output. Egg producers are expected to produce 6.6 billion dozen eggs in 1998, up 2 percent from the expected 1997 output. With these increases in production, feed needs by the poultry sector are likely to remain strong. TIGHTER OUTLOOK LEADS TO INCREASE IN CORN AND SORGHUM PRICE FORECASTS The season average price of corn received by farmers is forecast at $2.55-2.95 per bushel in 1997/98, up 10 cents from last month. The forecast farm price of sorghum was similarly increased 10 cents to $2.30-2.70 per bushel. Stronger demand prospects and a slightly smaller feed grain supply will provide support for prices. The stocks-to-use ratio for corn is forecast at 8.3 percent, down from 10 percent in 1996/97. Market prices for corn strengthened at the beginning of October, a bit earlier than might be expected given the limited harvest progress at that time. Typically, the seasonal price pattern tends to hit a bottom around harvest and begins to rise to reflect the costs of carrying the crop in storage. This season's recent price strength may reflect a number of factors, including spillover from a robust soybean market, signs of strong corn demand, concerns about the status of China's corn trade, and fears that the U.S. crop may be smaller than some traders expected. Nearby futures prices recently reached $2.90 per bushel, up about 30 cents in the last 3 weeks. Central Illinois cash corn prices hit a recent low of $2.44 per bushel at the end of September, but since then have increased about 30 cents. FORECAST FOREIGN COARSE GRAIN STOCKS IN 1997/98 LOWEST SINCE 1983/84 This month's changes in forecast foreign coarse grain production, trade, and ending stocks clarify 1997/98 as a year of tightening world supply and demand. Foreign coarse grain production is down more than 4 million tons as dryness during the growing season reduced estimates of corn in China and sorghum in India. The corn production forecast for Brazil also dropped because of lower expected planted area as soybean prices are more attractive. These declines more than offset expected improved corn yields in Europe and better barley yield prospects in Australia. Barley benefited from above normal rainfall during September in most parts Southeast Australia, a region that is usually drier than normal during an El Nino. Forecast world coarse grain imports increased 1.7 million tons this month. Saudi Arabia's large feed barley purchases boosted its 1997/98 import forecast to 6 million tons, now up slightly from a year ago. Israel and Jordan have also purchased more barley than expected. With forecast barley supplies down in Canada and Australia, and with the EU Commission unready to subsidize as much barley exports as Saudi Arabia wanted, the United States ended up winning pieces of the large Saudi tenders this summer. As a result, despite reduced production and tight supplies, U.S. barley exports are expected to more than double in 1997/98 (July/June local marketing year), with most of the forecast already sold or shipped this summer. On the international October/September marketing year, both 1996/97 and 1997/98 U.S. barley export forecasts were increased this month above 1 million tons. The foot and mouth disease problems in Taiwan have not reduced hog numbers there as much as expected earlier, keeping corn import demand higher than previously forecast. Iran's corn import forecast increased slightly because of strong purchases from Argentina. CHINA'S CORN: PRODUCTION DOWN AND EXPORTS UP China's corn production in 1997/98 is forecast at 105 million tons, down 5 million from last month, and 22.5 million tons below a year ago. As the growing season progressed, extensive damage from drought in the North China Plain became more apparent. The reaction by the grain marketing system in China has been complex. Even as drought was beginning to reduce corn production prospects, a record wheat crop was harvested, straining available storage capacity. Large corn stocks had been built up during 1995/96 and 1996/97, especially in Northern China. China sold corn aggressively this summer, especially 1995-crop corn that had been procured by the government at lower prices. Even as corn prices in China increased due to the drought, and in Southern China moved well above world prices, China continued to sell old-crop corn out of the North into the world market. These greater than expected sales and shipments boosted forecast China corn exports for both 1996/97 and 1997/98. Reduced production and increased exports are expected to reduce China's ending stocks of coarse grain by almost 20 million tons, about in half. The drop in China's corn stocks is about equal to the decline in world coarse grain stocks, and is driving the global stocks-to-use ratio to a forecast record low 11.1 percent. Larger than expected export competition from China is a major factor keeping the lid on U.S. corn exports, despite increased world demand. NOTE: ERS IS MOVING AT THE END OF OCTOBER TO 1800 M ST., N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036-5831. THE NEW NUMBER FOR THE ERS INFORMATION CENTER IS 202-694-5050 AND THE NEW ERS AUTOFAX SERVICE'S NUMBER IS 202-694-5700. THE PHONE NUMBERS OF THE FEED OUTLOOK STAFF WILL CHANGE ON NOVEMBER 1. PLEASE SEE BELOW. **************************************************************** Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512/ Nov.(202) 694-5308 Allen Baker (202) 219-0360/ Nov (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 219-0831/ Nov.(202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704/ Nov.(202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released AT 4:00 p.m. Eastern time on November 12, 1997. ****************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,946 487 2,819 6,904 2.95 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 398 1,490 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,108 431 2,001 2,497 2.76 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 3 2,500 443 825 348 1,616 884 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,732 1,690 5,368 1,790 8,848 884 2.70 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 884 9,312 10 10,206 1,775 5,625 2,025 9,425 781 2.55-2.95 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 0.00 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.52 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.25 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 82 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 7 37 29 72 47 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 529 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 47 664 0 712 35 425 200 660 52 2.30-2.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 74 110 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 219 31 422 110 2.74 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 110 374 40 524 172 185 70 427 97 2.25-2.65 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.06 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.84 Dec-Feb 129 --- 28 156 20 40 0.3 61 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 67 176 100 343 95 175 3 273 70 1.55-1.75 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.5 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.3 10.2 4.76 3.3 158.5 7.4 165.9 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.1 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.3 -23.8 -6.3 -22.0 -15.7 -14.6 -15.6 0.8 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 42.5 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.9 0.9 2.3 1.3 25.4 10.9 36.3 Mkt. yr. 136.4 13.4 4.1 2.7 156.6 9.0 165.6 85.3 1.94 % Change 14.7 73.7 -9.1 6.5 17.1 41.5 18.2 0.4 17.8 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 142.9 10.8 4.3 2.8 160.8 7.4 168.2 87.6 1.92 % Change 4.8 -19.7 5.1 3.6 2.7 -17.1 1.6 2.7 -1.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1994/95 --------------1995/96----- --------1996/97-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Aug Aug Sept-Aug Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 3.1 4/ 3.7 3.7 NA 5/ 2.9 2.9 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 160.8 151.8 151.8 83.6 108.7 93.9 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.5 27.1 27.1 20.6 23.3 22.9 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 116.6 117.3 117.3 118.3 6/ 119.7 7/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. 5/ Jan-Jun average. 6/ Sep-Dec average. 7/ Data are discontinued. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996: May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 Jun 4.74 4.99 8.57 7.95 3.22 3.28 2.11 Jul 4.70 5.07 8.35 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 1997: May 2.74 3.01 5.04 5.17 2.45 NQ 1.81 Jun 2.59 2.86 4.80 4.75 2.31 2.62 1.89 Jul 2.44 2.69 4.70 4.36 2.04 1.74 1.76 Aug 2.60 2.86 4.97 4.71 2.10 2.66 1.80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.38 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 97.20 Monthly: 1996: May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 100.00 Jun 227.90 192.20 122.10 315.00 231.80 190.00 127.80 96.90 Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 95.60 1997: May 296.00 193.75 83.60 355.75 277.60 128.50 82.90 127.00 Jun 275.90 190.30 72.25 349.40 279.30 126.90 64.80 115.00 Jul 261.50 170.75 70.40 337.00 271.41 125.00 61.50 106.00 Aug 261.60 176.25 75.50 345.60 261.00 NQ 69.80 106.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.7 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1,686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1,592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 386.4 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 115.0 34.0 33.9 442.6 Mkt year 505.7 243.2 228.6 427.4 130.0 134.6 1,669.5 1997/98 Mkt year 525.0 250.0 235.0 475.0 133.0 136.0 1,754.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, dextrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1996: Jun 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 Jul 20.45 16.35 25.50 13.15 18.65 Aug 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 Sep 20.36 16.26 25.50 13.15 18.50 1997: Jun 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 13.37 Jul 16.20 12.10 25.50 13.15 13.37 Aug 16.50 12.44 25.50 13.15 13.05 Sep 2/ 16.59 12.49 25.50 NA 13.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. NA=Not available. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95------ ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. Sep-Jul Mkt. yr. Sep-Jul Sep-Jul ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 14,649 15,303 14,178 13,247 Taiwan 6,027 5,668 5,938 5,587 5,022 Former USSR 140 140 34 27 95 South Africa 187 161 347 347 81 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 416 321 319 177 EU 2,836 2,569 2,842 2,835 1,678 Egypt 2,569 2,274 2,167 2,137 2,065 Canada 1,096 952 808 711 815 China 3,240 2,698 2,207 2,207 53 East Europe 112 112 188 188 103 Algeria 1,000 944 522 522 765 S. Korea 8,005 7,145 8,285 7,855 5,058 Mexico 2,985 2,625 6,453 6,156 2,975 Others 10,723 9,538 11,077 10,641 9,768 Total 55,218 49,891 56,494 53,709 41,902 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 2,262 1,759 1,578 2,000 Japan 2,050 1,964 1,617 1,478 1,879 Others 1,008 979 1,591 1,505 894 Total 5,615 5,205 4,968 4,561 4,774 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Jul Mkt. yr. Jun-Jul Jun-Jul BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 373 0 88 0 179 Israel 42 42 28 7 0 Jordan 0 0 50 0 0 Others 932 163 613 83 134 Total 1,347 205 779 91 313 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96----- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Jul Mkt. yr. Jun-Jul Jun-Jul ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 316 1,440 70 182 Finland 22 8 99 0 25 Sweden 62 62 140 0 22 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,387 387 1,680 70 229 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 163 608 115 158 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 740 163 609 115 158 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 45 191 37 39 Other 6 5 0 0 0 Total 1/ 147 50 192 37 39 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE