FEED OUTLOOK November 12, 1997 November 1997, FDS-1197 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. This report is only available electronically. Printed copies of the Yearbook edition are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 to order. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Production Forecast Up 47 Million Bushels, Sorghum Drops Slightly o Projection of 1997/98 Corn Ending Stocks Raised o Corn Export Forecast Reduced 100 Million Bushels, Barley Exports Up Again o Special Update on Rail Congestion Problems FEED GRAIN OUTLOOK: LOWER EXPORT PROSPECTS BOOST CARRYOUT STOCKS U.S. feed grain supplies are forecast at 295 million metric tons for 1997/98, up 1 million from last month due to higher corn production. Total use of feed grains is projected at 267.3 million tons, down 2.4 million tons from a month ago primarily because of lower corn exports. Expectations for domestic use are largely unchanged except for a small decline in barley feed and residual use. Ending stocks of feed grains are projected at 27.8 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons, and up slightly from the carryin level. Although U.S. stocks of feed grains will remain relatively low in 1997/98, they are expected to increase slightly from the previous year. With most of the harvest complete, supply side concerns are largely limited to shipping delays stemming from rail transportation congestion, along with storage problems in some areas. Overall demand prospects are strong, particularly for domestic feeding and industrial use. On the international side, U.S. corn is continuing to face stronger than expected export competition from China. In addition, large exportable supplies of feed quality wheat from Europe are also eroding U.S. prospects, and there are indications that growing economic problems will reduce Southeast Asia s corn import demand from earlier expectations. CORN CROP FORECAST RAISED TO 9,359 MILLION BUSHELS U.S. corn production in 1997 is forecast at 9,359 million bushels, based on conditions as of November 1, up 47 million bushels from the October forecast and 66 million higher than 1996. If realized, this would be the third highest crop on record. Yields are expected to average 126.4 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month but down 0.7 bushel from last year. As of November 2, the harvest was 75 percent complete in the major producing States, ahead of the 5-year average of 64 percent. Expected yields increased in Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and Kansas this month, outweighing reduced prospects in Illinois, the second largest producing State. Harvest results continue to reveal a large amount of variability across the Corn Belt this year. USDA does not issue a corn production forecast in December, and the final crop estimate will be released on January 13. CORN ENDING STOCKS RAISED 147 MILLION BUSHELS FOR 1997/98 The increase in corn production and a reduction in prospective exports account for a rise in projected 1997/98 ending stocks to 928 million bushels. This is also higher than 1996/97's 884 million bushels. Forecast corn exports were reduced 100 million bushels to 1,925 million, but still 8 percent larger than 1996/97. Total use of corn is projected at 9,325 million bushels in 1997/98, second to the 1994/95 record of 9,405 million. There were also some small revisions made in 1996/97 disappearance this month. The final corn export total was 1,795 million bushels, up 5 million from the prior estimate. A slight increase in August ethanol production raised corn for ethanol use marginally to 429 million bushels, and total food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is estimated at 1,691 million bushels for the year. Feed and residual use of corn thus slipped to 5,362 million. SORGHUM CROP FORECAST NEARLY UNCHANGED Grain sorghum production in 1996 is forecast at 659 million bushels in 1997, down 5 million from a month ago, and down sharply from the bumper 1996 crop of 803 million. Yields are expected to average 69.2 bushels per acre, a drop of 0.7 bushel from last month, mainly reflecting poorer results in Texas. The pace of harvest is about average, with 76 percent complete as of November 2. Damage from the late October snow in the Plains is expected to be small, although there are concerns in Kansas where a great deal of the crop is temporarily stored on the ground because the large grain harvest has taxed storage facilities. BARLEY EXPORT FORECAST UP AGAIN AS SALES BOOM U.S. barley exports continue to sizzle, and forecast exports were lifted another 20 million bushels to 90 million in 1997/98, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Exports are expected to about triple from 1996/97. Sales to Japan continue strong, and the United States has captured a large portion of recent tenders by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest barley importer, due to competitive prices even without the Export Enhancement Program. Barley sales by the European Union (EU), the largest exporter, have started slowly, reflecting policy decisions by officials in the EU's administered export system. The EU commission has only been awarding limited export restitutions, and with reduced supplies available from Canada and Australia, the United States has been the cheapest source of barley to meet some optional origin contracts. U.S. 1997/98 CORN EXPORT PROSPECTS SHARPLY LOWER THIS MONTH The U.S. corn export forecast dropped this month by 100 million bushels to 1,925 million, reflecting increased competition from China's corn and European feed wheat, along with reduced demand from Southeast Asia. China has continued to market corn aggressively, selling for delivery in the first quarter of 1998, despite sharply reduced production. Earlier reports of an export shutoff appear to have been unfounded. China's 1997/98 corn exports are now projected to reach 4.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from a month ago, and up slightly from the previous year. China's forecast corn consumption is unchanged from last month, but up sharply from the year before. China is expected to maintain growth in corn consumption and exports despite a sharply reduced crop by drawing down its huge stocks by more than half. The large wheat crop harvested this summer, and procured by the State, has likely provided an incentive to clear corn out of storage facilities, and move it into export channels. In the corn surplus areas of northern China, corn prices have not increased as much as in other parts of the country. South Korea's corn imports are forecast down 1.25 million tons this month. The world's second largest corn importer has recently made large purchases of feed wheat, mostly from Europe. Very competitive freight rates from the Black Sea to Korea have helped to make European feed wheat competitive with corn in Korea. Extensive heavy rains late in the growing season and during harvest damaged wheat in Europe, increasing feed wheat supplies dramatically in 1997/98. Eastern Europe, Russia, and even Ukraine have large supplies of feed wheat that will compete with U.S. corn in some international markets. Lower animal numbers in recent years have reduced the demand base for feed wheat in Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Corn imports by Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Phillippines are projected down 800,000 tons, or 18 percent, this month because the regional economic slowdown is expected to erode demand for meat. Slower growth in meat production will reduce the need for corn imports, even as shifting exchange rates make imports more expensive. However, 1997/98 corn production in the region is expected to decline, as weather patterns have been disrupted by El Nino, and corn imports by these three countries are expected to nearly match last year. FEED GRAIN PRICE FORECASTS REDUCED Forecast season average farm prices for all the feed grains were lowered this month. This mainly reflects changes in the outlook for corn that heavily shape price expectations for the other feed grains. In addition, prices received to date for barley and oats have been somewhat weaker than expected. The farm price of corn is forecast at $2.45-2.85 per bushel in 1997/98, down 10 cents from last month. This is based on lower export prospects and higher stocks. The ratio of stocks-to-use is now projected at 10 percent, up from last month and equal to 1996/97. The price for this year is expected to be slightly lower because there was no large early-season premium like 1996/97 to boost the average. Futures prices for nearby corn contracts have remained around $2.80-2.90 per bushel in recent weeks, and some deferred contracts have been around $3.00. Models based on futures prices imply a slightly higher season average. However, the amount of corn already priced by farmers is unknown. Although the seasonal lows for corn generally occur around harvest in the fall, heavy sales by farmers after the beginning of the new year often drop prices in January or February. The forecast of the price of sorghum received by farmers was cut 15 cents to $2.15-2.55 per bushel. This would pull the price of sorghum relative to corn down to 89 percent, slightly below the historical average, as the market encourages use of sorghum in areas where competing grain supplies are fairly abundant. The season average price of barley is forecast at $2.25-2.55 per bushel, down 10 cents on the high end of the range. Despite the strong pace of exports, prices to date have been relatively low. This is partly explained by the quality of the crop, as a large portion has apparently been sold for feed rather than malting. The forecast price of oats was also trimmed 10 cents on the high end to $1.55-1.65 per bushel. Prices for both barley and oats will decline significantly from 1996/97 when they benefitted from very high early season prices before new-crop corn was available to replenish very tight supplies. RAIL PROBLEMS DISRUPT MARKETING FLOWS by Jerry Norton, Agricultural Marketing Service/USDA (202) 720-4211 Rail shippers in many parts of the Nation have been experiencing serious shipment delays and service disruptions since late summer. The impact of the current problems varies substantially from region to region and market to market. Grain shippers in the lower Plains and western Corn Belt have been especially hard hit by these problems. Western livestock and poultry feeders that depend on rail shipments of feed grains from these areas have also had to struggle to secure sufficient feed supplies to maintain their herds and flocks. As the fall harvest enters its last weeks, additional grain moving in from the fields could mean that any significant improvement in the current situation is still weeks away. The service problems now plaguing many grain shippers in the western United States began in July on the Union Pacific (UP) in and around the Houston market. The initial problems appear to have stemmed from stronger than anticipated intermodal and petrochemical demand combined with UP's efforts to consolidate its operations with those of the Southern Pacific Railroad (SP). These problems were further exacerbated by the unexpected large winter wheat harvest in the southern Plains. The 1997 U.S. winter wheat crop was up 27 percent from last year. Among the factors contributing to the UP-SP consolidation problems were incompatibility of computer systems between the railroads, unsettled labor agreements that restricted crewing flexibility, and lack of adequate locomotive power to move trains. To some extent the shortages of locomotive power reflect long-term operating problems inherited from the cash-strapped SP which UP acquired last year. With the fall harvest and increased demand for grain transportation, the UP's troubles have quickly spread to other areas and other railroads, especially the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF). The current rail service problems are substantially different in nature than the types of equipment shortages and service delays that shippers have routinely experienced following many recent harvests. Since early September, grain car loadings on the major railroads have averaged 23,250 cars per week (3,200-3,400 bushels per car). This is down nearly 20 percent from the average weekly loadings during the same period in 1995 when many shippers in the western Corn Belt and upper Plains experienced serious equipment shortages and service disruptions. Grain traffic on the three major western U.S. railroads--the Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Kansas City Southern (KCS), and UP--is also down this fall as compared with 1995 traffic. Since September, only the KCS has had average weekly grain loadings higher than their 1995 level. Increased grain traffic on the KCS, part of which is the result of rerouting from the UP, has done little to increase the overall level of loadings on the western railroads. Weekly loadings on these carriers are averaging 16,300 cars per week, down 17 percent or nearly 3,500 car loads per week from the same weeks in 1995. Average weekly grain loadings since September on the four major eastern U.S. railroads--Conrail, CSX Transportation, Illinois Central (IC), and Norfolk Southern--are also down from 1995. Since the first of September, the eastern railroads' weekly grain car loadings have averaged 6,800 cars per week, down 11 percent from their levels in 1995 but up 12 percent from 1996. This increase over 1996 has been driven by increases on the IC. Since the fall harvest season began, the IC has experienced a 45-percent increase in average weekly grain loadings. Some of this increase in grain traffic on the IC reflects shifts in shipments away from the troubled western railroads. Since early September, rail shipments of grain to export elevator facilities have averaged 6,000 cars per week. This is up more than 50 percent from last year when the U.S. corn crop was smaller, but down 34 percent from their levels in 1995. Despite rail congestion problems in the lower plains which have nearly tripled shipment times for grain railed from Kansas to the Gulf, moderately strong export demand has kept wheat shipments moving to Gulf Coast ports. Since the beginning of the wheat marketing year on June 1, Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat export inspections are up 6 percent. Since July, when the current rail problems began, HRW wheat inspections at Texas Gulf export houses are up 17 percent from their 1994-96 average. At Texas Gulf facilities, rail car shipments of grain have averaged 2,100 car per week since September--up 41 percent from last year and 2 percent from 1995. With outstanding export sales of wheat running 20 percent ahead of last year (as of October 30), strong demand for transportation to move HRW wheat to the Gulf export houses should continue for some time. Inland river facilities in Oklahoma along the Arkansas River and at Kansas City on the Missouri River are reporting substantial increases in barge shipments of HRW wheat to export facilities in Louisiana along the lower Mississippi River. HRW wheat export inspections at the Louisiana export houses are more than double their average for the 1994-96 years. Hardest hit by the present rail service problems have been grain shippers in the lower Plains and western Corn Belt, particularly country elevator shippers. Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have experienced the worst of the problems so far. Good corn and sorghum harvests in this region have followed an excellent winter wheat crop. The large wheat crop and strong market signals to store grain left many grain elevators filled to capacity with little or no room for the large feed grain harvest. Reports from Kansas indicate that as much as 30 million bushels of grain may be piled on the ground. Even though nearly all of this is feed grains, quality deterioration is a growing concern with the recent early snows that fell across the region. The western Corn Belt and corn producing areas of the upper Plains are also experiencing service problems, particularly in Minnesota, Nebraska, and the corn producing areas of North and South Dakota. The inability to move harvested feed grains, particularly corn, has forced many country elevator shippers to pile grain outside as they wait for long-delayed rail equipment to arrive at there facilities. With this region experiencing its third largest corn crop ever, elevators are scrambling to find adequate storage. The Nebraska Public Service Commission has issued elevators in that State temporary licenses to store as much as 50 million bushels of corn on the ground. The current rail service delays have forced many livestock and poultry feeders in areas outside of the traditional grain belt to rely extensively on truck shipments to meet their feeding needs. Arkansas poultry feeders have been forced to fill in between delayed rail shipments with trucked grain coming off the river or from feed grain producing areas to the north. Western Plains hog feeders and California feedlot operators have faced similar problems as they have had to scramble to secure steady supplies of feed grains and feed ingredients that are normally delivered by rail. Southeastern poultry and hog feeders have not been as directly impacted by the rail problems in the Western States. Normally in the first part of the season, grain supplies for these feeders are originated by rail out of the eastern Corn Belt in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. The eastern railroads serving this market have, however, experienced high levels of demand for covered hopper rail cars. This has slowed transit times for some grain movements, but not to the extent that would drastically delay shipments. Late summer fertilizer demand on the eastern railroads was stronger than usual and has lasted into the early part of the eastern grain harvest. Many of the covered hopper rail cars that were in fertilizer service are gradually being shifted back into grain service as they return from receivers throughout the Midwest. The return of some of these cars has been delayed by service problems in the Western States. Grain moving in from the fields as the fall harvest continues will add to existing rail demand in the coming weeks. As of the first week in November, 18 percent of the corn crop and 24 percent of the sorghum crop were still in the field in the western United States. This amounts to more than 1 billion bushels of feed grains or nearly 10 percent of the U.S. feed grain crop. The eastern U.S. corn crop is substantially farther behind, with more than one-third of the corn still in the field. This amounts to more than 1.2 billion bushels of corn. Thus, substantial improvement in the current rail transportation situation could still be weeks away. PLEASE NOTE: ERS HAS MOVED AND ALL PHONE NUMBERS CHANGED IN NOVEMBER. NEW NUMBERS ARE LISTED BELOW. *************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 * Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 * The next Feed Outlook will be released December 12, 1997. *************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,946 487 2,819 6,904 2.95 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 398 1,490 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,108 431 2,001 2,497 2.76 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 444 819 353 1,616 884 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,733 1,691 5,362 1,795 8,849 884 2.70 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 884 9,359 10 10,253 1,775 5,625 1,925 9,325 928 2.45-2.85 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 0.00 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.52 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.25 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 82 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 7 36 29 72 47 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 529 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 47 659 0 706 35 425 200 660 46 2.15-2.55 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 74 110 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 219 31 422 110 2.74 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 110 374 40 524 172 170 90 432 92 2.25-2.55 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.06 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.84 Dec-Feb 129 --- 28 156 20 40 0.3 61 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 67 176 100 343 95 175 2 272 71 1.55-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.5 -0.8 31.7 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.4 10.2 4.76 3.3 158.6 7.4 166.0 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.1 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.3 -23.8 -6.3 -22.0 -15.7 -14.6 -15.6 0.8 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 42.5 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.8 0.9 2.2 1.3 25.2 10.9 36.1 Mkt. yr. 136.2 13.4 4.0 2.7 156.4 9.0 165.4 85.3 1.94 % Change 14.5 73.6 -10.1 6.2 17.0 41.0 18.1 0.3 17.7 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 142.9 10.8 4.0 2.9 160.5 7.5 168.0 88.2 1.91 % Change 4.9 -19.7 -0.8 4.2 2.6 -16.6 1.6 3.4 -1.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995/96 ------1996/97------ ----1997/98---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. September September ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 4/ 3.7 5/ 2.9 NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 151.8 108.7 120.5 114.5 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 27.1 23.3 17.9 20.6 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 117.3 6/ 119.7 116.1 7/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. 5/ Jan-Jun average. 6/ Sep-Dec average. 7/ Data are discontinued. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996: Jun 4.74 4.99 8.57 7.95 3.22 3.28 2.11 Jul 4.70 5.07 8.35 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 Sep 3.39 3.69 6.30 5.89 2.34 3.15 2.08 1997: Jun 2.59 2.86 4.80 4.75 2.31 2.62 1.89 Jul 2.44 2.69 4.70 4.36 2.04 1.74 1.76 Aug 2.60 2.86 4.97 4.71 2.10 2.66 1.80 Sep 2.61 2.88 4.81 4.69 2.29 2.74 1.78 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.38 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 97.20 Monthly: 1996: Jun 227.90 192.20 122.10 315.00 231.80 190.00 127.80 96.90 Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 95.60 Sep 265.50 193.10 115.75 329.40 279.80 164.00 115.40 95.70 1997: Jun 275.90 190.30 72.25 349.40 279.30 126.90 64.80 115.00 Jul 261.50 170.75 70.40 337.00 271.41 125.00 61.50 106.00 Aug 261.60 176.25 75.50 345.60 261.00 NQ 69.80 106.00 Sep 265.70 192.00 81.10 355.00 272.10 130.00 80.30 106.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.8 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1,686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1,592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 386.4 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 106.3 34.0 33.9 444.0 Mkt year 505.7 243.2 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,670.8 1997/98 Mkt year 525.0 250.0 235.0 475.0 133.0 136.0 1,754.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, dextrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1996: Jul 20.45 16.35 25.50 13.15 18.65 Aug 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 Sep 20.36 16.26 25.50 13.15 18.50 Oct 17.19 13.11 25.50 13.15 15.41 1997: Jul 16.20 12.10 25.50 13.15 13.37 Aug 16.50 12.44 25.50 13.15 13.05 Sep 16.59 12.49 25.50 NA 13.45 Oct 2/ 16.78 12.68 25.50 8.30 13.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. NA=Not available. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region -----1994/95----- -----1995/96----- ----1996/97---- Sep-Aug Sep-Aug Sep-Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,849 15,303 14,821 Taiwan 6,027 5,938 5,482 Former USSR 140 34 131 South Africa 187 347 81 Sub-Saharan Africa 449 321 188 EU 2,836 2,842 1,704 Egypt 2,569 2,167 2,292 Canada 1,096 808 833 China 3,240 2,207 53 East Europe 112 188 103 Algeria 1,000 522 869 S. Korea 8,005 8,285 5,321 Mexico 2,985 6,453 3,155 Others 10,723 11,077 10,489 Total 55,218 56,494 45,523 SORGHUM Mexico 2,557 1,759 2,111 Japan 2,050 1,617 2,102 Others 1,008 1,591 948 Total 5,615 4,968 5,161 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Aug Mkt. yr. Jun-Aug Jun-Aug BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 373 0 88 0 329 Israel 42 42 28 7 0 Jordan 0 0 50 0 0 Others 932 320 613 155 201 Total 1,347 362 779 163 530 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96----- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Aug Mkt. yr. Jun-Aug Jun-Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 408 1,440 106 281 Finland 22 8 99 0 25 Sweden 62 62 140 0 22 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,387 479 1,680 106 328 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 191 608 142 221 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 740 191 609 142 221 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 63 191 51 49 Other 6 5 0 0 0 Total 1/ 147 68 192 51 49 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE