FEED OUTLOOK December 12, 1997 December 1997, Issue number FDS-1397 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This report and the others in this series (COTTON & WOOL OUTLOOK, OIL CROPS OUTLOOK, RICE OUTLOOK, AND WHEAT OUTLOOK) are only available electronically; there is no published version of the report. For further information on our products and services, please call the ERS Information Center at (202) 694-5050. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Ending Stocks Projection Up 25 Million Bushels o U.S. Corn Export Forecast Reduced to 1,875 Million Bushels o Feed and Residual Use of Corn Raised, Barley Trimmed o What's Behind the Rise in East Europe's Corn Exports WEAKER EXPORT OUTLOOK LEADS TO SMALL INCREASE IN FEED GRAIN STOCKS Carryout stocks of feed grains in 1997/98 are projected at 28.5 million metric tons, up 0.7 million from a month ago, due to lower exports. Domestic use is up slightly as larger prospective corn feed and residual use outweighs a small decline in barley. Price expectations are down slightly for corn and sorghum in response to the dip in total use and prospective gain in stocks. There was no change in U.S. feed grain production this month, forecast at 265.2 million tons, pending the release of final crop estimates in January. Feed grain supplies are down slightly at 294.9 million tons due to a small reduction in forecast barley imports. The market is expected to be fairly quiet in the next few weeks, reflecting the holiday period and anticipation of benchmark data released in January. In addition to crop production estimates, grain stocks on December 1 will be reported, allowing an assessment of disappearance for the September-November quarter. While the pace of corn exports has been very sluggish, domestic use has been relatively brisk. In contrast to corn, barley exports have been moving at a torrid pace. CORN CARRYOUT PEGGED AT 953 MILLION BUSHELS Projected ending stocks of corn in 1997/98 are up 25 million bushels this month as an increase in feed and residual use is more than offset by a cut in exports. Although stocks will be up from 884 million bushels in 1996/97, they will be below 1 billion bushels for the third consecutive year, indicative of a continued tight supply demand balance. The ratio of stocks to use is projected at 10.3 percent, up slightly from 10 percent the year before. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE OF CORN RAISED, BARLEY TRIMMED Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat is forecast at 168 million metric tons in 1997/98, up almost 2 percent from the previous year. Corn will account for nearly all of the increase, with sorghum, barley, and wheat (on a September-August year) expected to decline. Because animal inventories are up, the grain used per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) is expected to shrink slightly. Corn feed and residual use is forecast at a record 5,650 million bushels, up 25 million from last month. This offsets a 10-million- bushel reduction in barley feed and residual to 160 million bushels. If this forecast is realized, barley feed and residual would be lower than in the drought year of 1988/89 and the lowest since the early 1950's. The key factor limiting the barley feed and residual is the huge spike in exports this year, with dramatic gains in sales to Saudi Arabia and continued sales to Japan. This month, the forecast barley supply is also down slightly due to a 5-million-bushel reduction in forecast imports to 35 million bushels. PRICE FORECASTS TRIMMED FOR 1997/98 CORN AND SORGHUM The forecast season average farm price of corn is reduced 5 cents on each end of the range to $2.40-2.80 per bushel. This is mainly because of sagging export prospects and the outlook for slightly larger stocks. Similarly, the sorghum price forecast is also down 5 cents to $2.10-2.50 per bushel, reflecting the strong influence of corn. Farm prices over the first 3 months of the 1997/98 marketing year have quite low relative to a year ago, but reasonably firm when judged over a longer time frame. In 1996/97, the weighted average corn price for September-November was $2.87 per bushel. This was the transition between the severely tight market of the year before and the impact of more abundant new-crop supplies. This year, the price will be down more than 30 cents, judging from the simple average of $2.52 (including the preliminary November price). Corn prices are expected to rise somewhat over the next few months, assuming a typical seasonal pattern, before weakening in the summer if new-crop prospects are favorable. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty linked to different market influences. There has been a progressive slippage in export forecasts in recent months, stemming from unexpected exports by China, then increased exportable supplies of feed wheat, and now more corn exports from Eastern Europe. Moreover, there is concern about more weakness in import demand if the Asian economic crisis worsens. Nevertheless, prices have been quite resilient in the face of this news, underpinned by solid domestic demand. Furthermore, the market may retain a risk premium due to widespread fears about the potential of El Nino to harm future production. Finally, some analysts raise the possibility that China could become a significant importer later in the year. FARMERS' MARKETINGS OF CORN WERE LATER THAN AVERAGE IN 1996/97 The final season average price of corn received by farmers in 1996/97 was $2.71 per bushel. This reflects prices weighted by marketings for which data were just recently released. The data tend to confirm anecdotal reports that farmers held on to their corn a bit longer than normal. Some analysts expect this pattern to continue as farmers position themselves to catch any late season price rallies. While prices do tend to rise seasonally, there is also risk in this strategy if prices fail to cover added storage costs and the grain is not priced in advance. In 1995/96, when there was a short corn crop, a higher than average share of 46 percent of marketings occurred in the first 4 months, before prices had skyrocketed on their way to record highs. This pattern was similar to 1993/94, another year of crop problems and reduced output, except that prices in that year increased only moderately. Average September-December marketings during 1980-94 were about 40 percent. During 1996/97, farmers marketed less than 37 percent in the first 4 months, a bit below the record harvest year of 1994/95 and the lowest since 1986/87 and 1987/88. The recent market environment features more robust demand and no burdensome stocks, a dramatic difference from during the mid-1980's. During the 1986 and 1987 marketing years, use of the loan program and farmer-owned reserve both peaked. Deficiency payment outlays hit record highs in those years. U.S. CORN EXPORT FORECAST DOWN THIS MONTH Forecast 1997/98 U.S. corn exports dropped 50 million bushels this month to 1,875 million because of increased competition from Eastern Europe. The October/September forecast is down 1 million tons this month to 47.5 million, less than 1 million above last year. The early season pace has been unspectacular, with Export Sales data indicating November 1997 corn shipments of about 3 million tons, half the 6.1 million exported a year earlier. Moreover, as of December 4, outstanding export sales of U.S. corn were down 35 percent from a year ago. During most of 1997, U.S. corn exports have faced strong competition from China in important Asian markets. However, given China's drought-reduced crop harvested this fall, its corn exports are expected to taper off sharply for the rest of the year. U.S. exports are still forecast to increase from 1996/97 with reduced competition from China expected over the rest of the marketing year. However, the macro-economic developments in several Asian countries have potentially dampened demand. Moreover, just as corn export sales by China dropped off in recent weeks, sales from Eastern Europe, especially Hungary, increased. EAST EUROPE'S CORN PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS BURGEONING Eastern Europe has a long tradition of corn production and exports. For example, before World War II the region's exports were generally larger than U.S. exports and Romania was the world's second largest corn exporter, trailing Argentina. Parts of Romania, Serbia, and Hungary enjoy the combination of adequate rainfall, excellent soils, and appropriate temperatures for growing corn in abundance. Much of the best land for growing corn in Europe is in these countries plus the Ukraine and parts of Russia near the Black Sea. During most of the 1960s and 1970s Eastern Europe (not including the former Soviet Union) exported over 1 million tons of corn per year, with most being shipped to the Soviet Union or neighboring countries. However, during most of the Communist period the region as a whole was a net importer, led by Poland. However, beginning in 1989 and 1990, political/economic changes disrupted agricultural production, transforming production and demand for corn. East European corn area fell from 7.4 million hectares in 1986 to 6.4 million in 1990. Production fell as large production units were dismantled in several countries, fertilizer and pesticide use dropped as subsidies ended, and large irrigation systems collapsed. At the same time, a liquidation of livestock and poultry reduced domestic demand. War and economic embargoes were particularly disruptive in the former Yugoslavia. Weather was not particularly cooperative, corn exports dwindled, and the region was a large net importer from 1987 to 1990. In 1991, despite continued low input use, favorable weather boosted average yields to near record levels. With increased production and domestic demand limited by reduced animal numbers, and fairly attractive prices on the world market, the region exported 3.2 million tons, much of it outside the region. Antiquated port facilities and high transportation costs from producing regions to ports limited exports. However, in the next several years production was much lower, despite increased area, and exports slumped. By 1995 and 1996, economic chaos had subsided somewhat in most countries, weather was reasonable, and corn production increased while animal numbers remained low. Exports increased, but were still limited by poor infrastructure. When the region was exporting to nearby countries, most shipments were by rail, but as more exports now move outside the region, shipment to a port is crucial. Hungary has had to export either through war-torn Former Yugoslavia, or through Romania, where increased grain handling capacity at the ports has come slowly. In 1997/98, Eastern Europe is forecast to produce 30 million tons of corn, up almost 20 percent from a year ago, and the largest in 6 years as good weather boosted yields. This month, Romania's corn production forecast increased 1.5 million tons to 12.0 million, up 25 percent from a year ago, despite a drop in area planted because of low prices, high carryover stocks, and lack of government support. Yields jumped a spectacular 33 percent despite reduced use of inputs such as fertilizer and irrigation. However, the increase in corn exports will be limited by logistical problems, especially because much of the port capacity has already been booked for Hungarian grain. The former Yugoslavia is also forecast to boost production 25 percent this year, reaching 9.5 million tons. In Hungary the crop did not increase as much, but export sales have been aggressive, and exports are forecast to reach 1.2 million tons, while the entire Eastern Europe is projected to export 2.9 million. The port capacity on the Black Sea is a particular constraint on Eastern Europe's corn exports this year because both the corn and wheat crops were large. Wheat of normal milling quality has a higher value than corn and usually has priority at the ports. However, a large part of Eastern Europe's wheat crop was rained on at harvest, and the quality, never particularly high, was reduced in many areas to feed-quality. Low ocean freight rates have made it possible to sell corn and feed wheat out of the Black Sea to markets as far away as South Korea. However, the inland transportation and ports are enough of a bottleneck that corn prices at the Danube in Hungary have recently been as low as $60 per ton, while Fob Black Sea corn is $105 per ton. If transportation infrastructure and port capacity constraints were not so binding, Eastern Europe would export significantly more corn and feed wheat this year than is currently forecast. The long term prospects are that with peace and more economic stability, investments will be made. The region's animal numbers are likely to grow over time, increasing domestic demand for grain. However, USDA's baseline projections indicate that, given the favorable resources of soil and climate, grain production is likely to grow faster, making Eastern Europe an ever more important competitor for U.S. corn. ******************************************************************* REPORTS IN 1998 Because of resource constraints, ERS will publish only 6 issues of this report in 1998. The next report will be released at 4 PM on January 14, 1998. We will continue to publish the feed Yearbook, which will released on April 3, 1998. This will include both sector data and analysis of critical issues and topics. Check the ERS web site (http://econ.ag.gov) for the full schedule and for other publications relating to feed grains. If you have questions or comments about this change in our schedule, please contact Joy Harwood, Chief, Field Crops Branch (202-694-5310; jharwood@econ.ag.gov) or Fred Surls, Outlook Program Coordinator (202 694-5320; fsurls@econ.ag.gov). PLEASE NOTE: ERS HAS MOVED AND ALL PHONE NUMBERS CHANGED IN NOVEMBER. NEW NUMBERS ARE LISTED BELOW. Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released January 14, 1998. ******************************************************************* Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 409 2,016 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 409 1,493 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,163 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 438 850 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,962 1,704 5,523 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 386 1,946 487 2,819 6,904 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,904 --- 2 6,906 398 1,490 525 2,412 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,108 431 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 444 819 353 1,616 884 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,733 1,691 5,362 1,795 8,849 884 2.71 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 884 9,359 10 10,253 1,775 5,650 1,875 9,300 953 2.40-2.80 SORGHUM 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.44 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 82 61 155 119 2.42 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 7 36 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 529 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 47 659 0 706 35 425 200 660 46 2.10-2.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 74 110 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 219 31 422 110 2.74 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 110 374 35 519 172 160 90 422 97 2.30-2.50 OATS 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 70 1.0 95 133 2.06 Sep-Nov 133 --- 39 172 22 20 0.8 43 129 1.84 Dec-Feb 129 --- 28 156 20 40 0.3 61 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 67 176 100 343 95 175 2.0 272 71 1.55-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.7 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 37.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.6 32.5 -0.8 31.7 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.1 2.4 1.3 26.4 8.3 34.7 Mkt. yr. 140.4 10.2 4.76 3.3 158.6 7.4 166.0 84.3 1.97 % Change 17.9 -12.4 -20.0 -13.8 12.9 -22.4 10.7 0.4 10.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.4 0.5 0.4 28.9 -1.8 27.1 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.2 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.9 4.5 2.6 133.9 6.3 140.2 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.3 -22.2 -6.3 -22.0 -15.6 -14.6 -15.5 0.8 -16.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.7 0.5 0.4 58.1 -2.1 56.0 Dec-Feb 37.8 2.8 0.9 0.7 42.2 0.8 42.9 Mar-May 28.1 1.7 0.4 0.4 30.6 -0.7 29.9 Jun-Aug 20.9 1.2 2.3 1.3 25.7 10.9 36.6 Mkt. yr. 136.4 13.3 4.1 2.7 156.5 9.0 165.5 85.3 1.94 % Change 14.7 68.7 -9.1 6.5 16.9 41.5 18.0 0.3 17.6 1997/98 Mkt. yr. 143.5 10.8 3.8 2.9 160.9 7.5 168.4 88.4 1.90 % Change 5.2 -19.0 -7.2 3.9 2.8 -16.8 1.8 3.7 -1.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995/96 -------1996/97--------- ----1997/98---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Oct Oct Sept-Oct Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 4/ 3.7 5/ 2.9 NA NA NA NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 151.8 108.7 138.8 157.0 138.5 162.5 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 27.1 23.3 21.4 24.9 23.1 25.6 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 117.3 6/ 119.7 119.9 123.7 7/ 7/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. 5/ Jan-Jun average. 6/ Sep-Dec average. 7/ Data are discontinued. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996: Jul 4.70 5.07 8.35 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 Sep 3.39 3.69 6.30 5.89 2.34 3.15 2.08 Oct 2.81 3.27 5.08 5.34 2.10 NQ 2.06 1997: Jul 2.44 2.69 4.70 4.36 2.04 1.74 1.76 Aug 2.60 2.86 4.97 4.71 2.10 2.66 1.80 Sep 2.61 2.88 4.81 4.69 2.29 2.74 1.78 Oct 2.66 2.51 4.91 5.16 2.05 2.74 1.75 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.38 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 97.20 Monthly: 1996: Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 95.60 Sep 265.50 193.10 115.75 329.40 279.80 164.00 115.40 95.70 Oct 238.00 183.25 102.30 344.00 272.10 160.80 103.20 98.20 1997: Jul 261.50 170.75 70.40 337.00 271.41 125.00 61.50 106.00 Aug 261.60 176.25 75.50 345.60 261.00 NQ 69.80 106.00 Sep 265.70 192.00 81.10 355.00 272.10 130.00 80.30 106.00 Oct 216.00 189.10 73.75 343.75 260.40 128.75 89.40 109.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 32.9 409.2 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 27.9 32.5 408.9 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.3 33.3 433.8 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 33.3 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.1 132.0 1,686.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1,592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 115.1 57.4 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 386.4 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 106.3 34.0 33.9 444.0 Mkt year 505.7 243.2 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,670.8 1997/98 Mkt year 525.0 250.0 235.0 475.0 133.0 136.0 1,754.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, dextrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1996: Aug 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 Sep 20.36 16.26 25.50 13.15 18.50 Oct 17.19 13.11 25.50 13.15 15.41 Nov 16.78 12.70 25.50 13.15 13.58 1997: Aug 16.50 12.44 25.50 13.15 13.05 Sep 16.59 12.49 25.50 NA 13.45 Oct 16.68 12.58 25.50 8.30 13.70 Nov 2/ 16.50 12.40 25.50 8.30 13.80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. NA = Not available. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region -----1995/96----- ----1996/97---- 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Sep Mkt.yr. Sep Sep ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,303 1,276 14,821 873 1,534 Taiwan 5,938 656 5,482 317 444 Former USSR 34 0 131 0 22 South Africa 347 0 81 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 69 188 0 0 EU 2,842 526 1,704 35 1 Egypt 2,167 206 2,292 144 216 Canada 808 136 833 78 124 China 2,207 749 53 0 0 East Europe 188 0 103 30 0 Algeria 522 0 869 45 105 S. Korea 8,285 1,073 5,321 213 297 Mexico 6,453 429 3,155 243 229 Others 11,077 1,237 10,489 565 628 Total 56,494 6,357 45,523 2,543 3,600 SORGHUM Mexico 1,759 290 2,111 164 144 Japan 1,617 150 2,102 149 252 Others 1,591 168 948 85 49 Total 4,968 609 5,161 398 444 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Sep Mkt. yr. Jun-Sep Jun-Sep BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 2/ 373 0 88 0 515 Israel 42 42 28 28 0 Jordan 0 0 50 50 0 Japan 522 316 175 72 149 Mexico 190 19 182 89 39 Taiwan 100 33 35 4 60 Others 119 46 220 46 72 Total 1,347 457 779 291 834 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census 2/ For 1997/98, includes unidentified country, until data is revised. Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96----- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Sep Mkt. yr. Jun-Sep Jun-Sep ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 534 1,440 309 546 Finland 22 8 99 0 25 Sweden 62 62 140 0 22 Total 1/ 1,387 604 1,680 309 593 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 215 608 148 241 Total 1/ 740 215 609 148 241 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 73 191 56 59 Other 6 5 0 0 0 Total 1/ 147 78 192 56 59 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE