FEED OUTLOOK January 14, 1998 January 1998, FDS-0198 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies are available. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Projected Ending Stocks of Corn Drop; Higher Domestic Use Outweighs Lower Exports o Final Crop Production Estimates Show Little Change o December 1 Corn Stocks Data Indicate Record Feed and Residual Use o Corn Export Forecast Cut 125 Million Bushels ROBUST DOMESTIC USE AND SLUGGISH EXPORTS SHAPE FEED GRAIN OUTLOOK Final 1997 feed grain production is estimated at 265.2 million metric tons, while total 1997/98 supply is pegged at 294.9 million tons. Both are virtually unchanged from a month ago. Total feed grain use is projected up nearly 3 million tons to a near-record 269.3 million because of strong gains in feed and residual and in industrial use. This has pushed forecast domestic use up 6 million tons this month. However, forecast exports are down more than 3 million tons, with all of the decline in corn. Export expectations continue to weaken because of sharp competition from other suppliers and diminishing import prospects in Asia. Presenting a marked contrast is an increase in feed grain disappearance in the United States. Benchmark stocks data indicate a very strong pace for the September-November quarter. Large animal inventories, including many cattle on feed, have been driving feed use. Nevertheless, the impact of lower Asian demand for meat is crimping meat exports and is expected to weaken livestock prices, slowing growth in feed and residual later in the year. Compared with last year, larger carryin stocks mean that 1997/98 feed grain supply is up 10 million tons despite a small dip in production. Total feed grain use is projected to increase nearly 12 million tons. The increase is all due to gains in domestic use, projected to exceed the 1994/95 record by 10 million tons. Because exports are expected to slip, total feed grain use will likely remain slightly below the 1994/95 record. CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 9.366 MILLION BUSHELS The 1997 U.S. corn crop is up 7 million bushels from the last forecast to 9,366 million. This is up less than 1 percent from 1996, but ranks as the third highest after 1994 and 1992. Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana were the top 5 producing States, the same as in 1996. Planted acreage was 80.2 million acres, up 1 percent from 1996. Harvested acres for grain are estimated at 73.7 million, also up about 1 percent, although there was a slight decline from the last forecast. Acreage of soybeans, the major crop competing with corn, was up 10 percent. The combined plantings of corn and soybeans of 151.1 million acres were the highest since 1982, indicative of good market prospects, generally favorable spring weather, the elimination of most land idling programs, and the increased planting flexibility under the new Farm Act. The average corn yield was 127 bushels per acre, up slightly from the previous forecast and about equal to the 1996 yield of 127.1 bushels. This was very unusual, given the strong weather-induced variability of the last few years, along with the fact that both years were around trend levels. It has been more common for yields to fall well below or above the long term trend. DECEMBER CORN STOCKS REVEAL BRISK DOMESTIC USE FOR SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER U.S. corn stocks on December 1, 1997, were reported at 7,230 million bushels, up 5 percent from the year before, but well below expectations of most analysts. Of this total, about two-thirds was held on farms. Indicated disappearance for September-November was a record 3.02 billion bushels, surpassing the previous high of 2.87 billion set in September-November 1994/95. While exports were very low at an estimated 385 million bushels, very large feed and residual and industrial use pushed up the total. Release of final November trade data later this month may lead to slight adjustments among the categories of use. CORN ENDING STOCKS PROJECTED AT 844 MILLION BUSHELS Projected ending stocks of corn in 1997/98 are reduced 109 million bushels this month to 844 million. This results from an increase of 200 million bushels in feed and residual use and 40 million in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, outweighing a decline of 125 million in forecast exports. Total use of corn is projected to match the 1994/95 record of 9.4 billion bushels, with both FSI and feed and residual use setting records at 1,815 million and 5,850 million, respectively. If the projections are realized, ending stocks would be down modestly from the year before and about equal to 1993/94. At that time, flooding slashed corn supplies sharply but demand was well below the current level, with a stocks-o-use ratio of 11.2 percent. For 1997/98, the ratio of stocks to use is projected at 9 percent, compared with 10 percent in 1996/97 and 5 percent in 1995/96, the year of record high prices. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE STRENGTHENS Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1997/98 is expected to increase 5 percent from the 165 million metric tons used in September 1996-August 1997. Feed and residual use in September-November 1997 was up 9 percent from a year earlier. Corn accounted for 92 percent of feed and residual use in September-November 1997 and is expected to represent 86 percent of feed and residual use in 1997/98. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1997/98 is expected to be up 4 percent from 1996/97's 85 million. The grain used per GCAU in 1997/98 would be 1.95 tons, up 1 percent from 1996/97. In the index components in 1997/98, GCAU's for cattle on feed, hogs, broilers and layers are up from the previous year. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on December 1, 1997, were up 8 percent from a year earlier, but placements were down 6 percent from a year earlier. Thus current feed use by cattle feedlots is stronger than last year. Pork production in 1998 is expected to increase 8 percent from the 17.3 billion pounds produced in 1997, which was up 1 percent from 1996. Hog farmers responding to the December 1997 survey indicated that they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing in December 1997-May 1998 by 6 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be stronger in 1997/98. Boiler and egg production in 1998 are expected to increase from the expected 1997 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 1998 is expected to increase 6 percent from 1997 as producers respond to strong domestic demand. In 1998, turkey producers are expected to maintain production at about equal the 1997 output. Egg producers are expected to produce 6.6 billion dozen eggs in 1998, up 3 percent from 1997. With these increases in production, feed needs by the poultry sector are likely to remain strong. Dairy cow numbers are expected to continue to trail the previous year, but with increased production per cow, milk production in 1998 is expected to total 157 billion pounds, up from 156.5 billion in 1997. On October 1, 1997, the latest date for which data are available, grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows averaged 18.7 pounds, up .7 pounds from the same date the previous year. Thus with the increased grain fed per cow, feed use by the dairy industry will continue strong. CORN FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL (FSI) USE RISING Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1997/98 is expected to total 1,815 million bushels, up from 1,692 million in 1996/97. In September-November 1997, FSI use was up 13 percent, from the same period in 1996/97. In 1997/98, FSI use would represent 19 percent of total use, the same as in the previous 2 years. FSI use in September-November 1997 was up for all categories, but corn used for high fructose corn sirup (HFCS), starch, and ethanol were up more than the other uses. Corn used for HFCS production in September-November 1997 was up 9 percent from the same period in 1996/97. In September, 1997, HFCS exports were strong but dropped to more normal levels in October, the latest data. These exports may have helped boost production, especially early in the quarter. In 1997/98, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 7 percent from the 504 million bushels used in 1996/97. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose during September-November 1997 was up 6 percent from a year earlier but may be up only about 2 percent for the year-over-year total. In the first quarter of the 1997/98 corn marketing year, corn used for starch production has been up 8 percent from the same period in 1996/97. Corn used to make ethanol in September-November 1997 totaled 123 million bushels, up from 96 million in 1996 based on monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy. This is the largest quarterly use since the 1994/95 record year. It largely reflects higher use of capacity as the industry continues to recover from the 1995/96 cost-price squeeze. Although there has been a modest expansion of capacity in Minnesota in recent months, a few plants that previously closed have not come back into operation. Corn used to make ethanol in 1997/98 is estimated to be up 17 percent from the 429 million bushels used in 1996/97. LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN OTHER FEED GRAINS THIS MONTH There were no changes in production estimates for barley and oats this month, nor any significant changes in supply and use balance sheets. The final production estimate for grain sorghum in 1997 was 653 million bushels, down 6 million from the last forecast, and 150 million below a year earlier. Planted and harvested area were reduced slightly this month while yields were bumped up. Planted acres of 10.1 million were down 23 percent from 1996, when an unusually large amount was planted because of problems with other crops. The average yield, at 69.5 bushels per acre, was up 2 bushels from 1996 and was the third highest ever. Stocks of sorghum in all positions on December 1, 1997, were 370 million bushels, down 21 percent from the 467 million bushels reported on December 1, 1996. Total disappearance was down 7 percent from the 354 million bushels used in September-November 1996. With smaller supplies in 1997/98, feed use is expected to drop sharply for the year, while exports and industrial use decline only moderately. HAY STOCKS DECLINE, PRICES STAY FIRM Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 1997, were down 2 percent from 1996's 105 million tons. Stock decreases occurred in 26 of the 48 contiguous States, mainly in the upper Midwest, New England States, Mid-Atlantic States and California, Nevada, and Oregon in the West. The largest stock increases occurred in the Mountain States, eastern Corn Belt States, and most of the Southern States. Roughage consuming animal units in 1997/98 are estimated to be down 3 percent from 1996/97. Thus hay stocks per RCAU are slightly higher at 1.4 tons/RCAU, while in 1996/97, December stocks were 1.38 tons/RCAU. Hay production in 1997 totaled 152 million tons, up 2 percent from the revised 1996 total. Acreage of all hay was almost the same as last year, down 64,000 acres, but yields were up 2 percent at 2.5 tons per acre. Texas became the number one hay producing State followed by California, South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska. All States in the West except Nevada, which was unchanged, showed increased production. Texas and Arizona had the largest increases at 38 and 22 percent respectively. The increases were nearly offset by declines in the New England States, Mid Atlantic States, and the South. Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures were down 275,000 tons, or less than 1 percent from 1996. All of the decline resulted from a decline in acreage of 2.5 percent. Yields in 1997 were up 2.4 percent, offsetting almost all of the acreage decline. The National Agricultural Statistics Service collected data on the number of acres seeded to alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures during 1997. Wisconsin was the number one State with 650,000 acres seeded, followed by Minnesota with 300,000. (See Table on new seedings of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures in Crop Production, 1997 Summary, page A-88.) Other hay was up 4 percent from the revised 1996 production of 70 million tons. In 1997, the area harvested of other hay was 37 million acres, up 1.5 percent from 1996. Average yields in 1997 were up 2.6 percent from the 1.91 tons per acre in 1996. Production increases were common across the Nation with the exception of the New England States, the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern States of Louisiana and Florida. Corn for silage in 1997 was up 10 percent from the 84 million tons produced in 1996. Acreage was up 6 percent and yields were up 4 percent. Sorghum for silage in 1997 totaled 4 million tons, down 11 percent from 1996. In 1997, yield was up but acreage was down 16 percent, accounting for all of the drop. Total supplies of harvested roughage (hay stocks on May 1, plus hay and silage production) in 1997/98 are up 2 percent from the 258 million tons available in 1996/97. Supplies of harvested roughage per roughage consuming animal unit in 1997/98 are 3.6 tons, up from 3.4 tons in 1996/97. Prices remain firm relative to historical levels. Mid-month prices for all hay reported by farmers in December 1997 were $97.70 per ton, down from $101 in November, but up from $90.80 in December 1996. Prices in 1997 had been weakening relative to a year ago, but since July had been running about $9 stronger than a year ago until December when the spread narrowed again. Prices received for alfalfa hay in December were $106 per ton, down from $108 in November but up from $97 last year. Other hay was selling below last year during July through September but has moved above a year earlier since then. In December the price of other hay was $76.30 per ton, down from $77.50 in November, and up from $73.90 last year. Given current estimates of livestock numbers and hay stocks, prices may stabilize near current levels during the remainder of the hay marketing year. U.S. 1997/98 CORN EXPORT FORECAST REVISED DOWN 125 MILLION TONS U.S. corn exports in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.75 billion bushels, down 125 million from a month ago and 2.5 percent from a last year. This mainly reflects higher export prospects for Argentina, along with continued declines in expected imports by Asia. Despite a slow start, shipments in the latter half of 1997/98 are still expected to be more robust than a year ago. The pace of U.S. corn export sales and shipments so far in 1997/98 has been slower than a year ago. According to U.S. Export Sales, as of January 1, 1998, corn shipments lagged by 22 percent, while outstanding sales were down more than 30 percent compared to last year. Stiff competition from China and Eastern Europe has dampened U.S. corn exports early in the season, but it was expected that as the season progressed, U.S. corn exports would face less competition than a year ago. However, this month's increased production prospects in Argentina indicate continued tough competition as Southern Hemisphere production becomes available later in the year. Argentina's corn production was boosted this month for both 1996/97 and 1997/98. Revised Argentine statistics increased last year's record corn crop by 800,000 tons to 15.5 million. The additional old-crop supplies are available for export before the new-crop harvest in April and May 1998. Moreover, above normal rainfall and mild temperatures provided favorable growing conditions in December and January as Argentina's new-crop corn was tasseling. Fertilizer use is reportedly increasing. Growing conditions this year, so far, are better than for last year's record crop, and a record yield is forecast, raising the 1998 production forecast 2 million tons to 15.0 million. Increased old-crop and new-crop supplies combine to boost Argentina's 1997/98 (October/September) corn export forecast by 2.5 million tons to a record 10.5 million. While growing conditions in Argentina have boosted expected competition in world corn markets, there has been a small offset in South Africa. Dryness during planting has contributed to lower corn acreage and the production forecast for South Africa was reduced 500,000 tons. However, South Africa's 1997/98 October-September corn exports are forecast only 300,000 tons lower. While El Nino fears persist, recent timely rains have maintained yield prospects. THE CURRENCY CRISIS IN ASIA IS SOFTENING CORN IMPORT DEMAND Although soft demand from Southeast Asia is a factor contributing to the 3-million-ton drop in forecast U.S. corn exports, it is not the most significant, as imports by Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia combined are down only 0.85 million tons this month. Moreover these four countries' corn imports are down only 0.5 million tons from a year ago, with Thailand still expected to increase corn imports because of a smaller domestic crop. PRICES FACE VARIETY OF INFLUENCES IN MONTHS AHEAD USDA made only slight modifications to season average farm price forecasts this month, narrowing the price ranges for corn, sorghum, and barley. The forecast for corn was reduced by 5 cents on both ends to $2.45-2.75 per bushel. Sorghum is down 10 cents at the high end to $2.10-2.40 and barley by 5 cents at each end to $2.35-2.45 per bushel. For much of the fall, the critical futures market for corn exhibited little firm direction. However, growing fears of the Asian crisis began to pull down prices in December. The price for the March corn contract slipped under $2.60 per bushel just prior to the January USDA reports, down about 25 cents from early December. The tighter situation indicated since then, however, is expected to provide more price strength. Markets will remain sensitive to the recent spurt of negative export news, but will also be influenced by robust domestic use and relatively low stocks. Models based on supplies relative to use point to a higher season average farm price than the midpoint of the current forecast, but prices received by farmers for the first 4 months of the marketing year have been fairly low. This will tend to hold down the average, although farmers are reportedly marketing their corn crops slowly again. Stronger marketings over the balance of the year could provide more of an impact on the season average than usual. Expectations for the 1998 sesaon will also start to influence prices in the next few weeks. The uncertainty surrounding El Nino may or may not be a factor by spring, but acreage prospects should receive the usual strong interest. The Prospective Plantings report, based on a survey of farmers' intentions, will be released on March 30. ******************************************************************* Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released April 10, 1998. Reports for February and March were discontinued as part of a cutback to 6 issues per year. The annual Feed Situation and Outlook Yearbook will be published in April. The summary will be released April 3 and the full text should be available about 2-3 weeks later. Check the ERS web site (http://econ.ag.gov) for the full schedule and for other publications relating to feed grains. If you have questions or comments about this change in our schedule, please contact Joy Harwood, Chief, Field Crops Branch (202-694-5310; jharwood@econ.ag.gov) or Fred Surls, Outlook Program Coordinator (202 694-5320; fsurls@econ.ag.gov). ******************************************************************* Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 387 1,946 487 2,820 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 398 1,489 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,108 431 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 444 819 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,733 1,692 5,362 1,795 8,849 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,366 3 10,252 436 2,201 385 3,022 7,230 2.52 Mkt. yr. 883 9,366 10 10,259 1,815 5,850 1,750 9,415 844 2.45-2.75 SORGHUM 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.44 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 82 61 155 119 2.42 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 7 36 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 529 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 653 0 701 9 276 45 330 370 2.23 Mkt. yr. 47 653 0 701 35 425 200 660 41 2.10-2.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 220 31 423 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 374 12 496 44 100 24 168 328 2.33 Sep-Nov 328 --- 6 334 39 5 45 89 245 2.44 Mkt. yr. 109 374 35 519 172 160 90 422 97 2.35-2.45 OATS 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 71 1.0 96 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 176 19 262 24 81 0.4 105 157 1.62 Sep-Nov 157 --- 35 192 22 25 0.6 48 144 1.52 Mkt. yr. 67 176 100 343 95 175 2.0 272 71 1.55-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.1 85.0 1.65 % Change -15.2 -23.8 -6.3 -21.7 -15.6 -14.6 -15.6 0.8 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.1 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 25.1 10.8 36.0 Mkt. yr. 136.2 13.4 4.0 2.7 156.3 8.9 165.2 85.2 1.94 % Change 14.5 73.5 -10.8 4.0 16.9 39.8 17.9 0.3 17.6 1997/98 Sep-Nov 55.9 7.0 0.1 0.5 63.5 -2.9 60.6 Mkt. yr. 148.6 10.8 3.8 2.9 166.1 6.9 172.9 88.7 1.95 % Change 9.1 -19.6 -4.5 7.3 6.2 -22.7 4.7 4.0 0.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995/96 1996/97 -----1996----- -----1997------ Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Nov Nov Sept-Nov Nov ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 4/ 3.7 5/ 2.9 NA NA 1.0 0.9 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 151.8 108.7 136.6 132.4 132.2 119.7 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 27.1 23.3 23.5 27.8 23.3 23.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 117.3 6/ 119.7 119.7 119.4 7/ 7/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. 5/ Jan - Jun average. 6/ Sep - Dec average. 7/ Data is discontinued. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996: Aug 4.48 4.73 7.43 6.89 2.60 3.40 2.36 Sep 3.39 3.69 6.30 5.89 2.34 3.15 2.08 Oct 2.81 3.27 5.08 5.34 2.10 NQ 2.06 Nov 2.63 2.97 4.66 4.76 1.90 NQ 1.87 1997: Aug 2.60 2.86 4.97 4.71 2.10 2.66 1.80 Sep 2.61 2.88 4.81 4.69 2.29 2.74 1.78 Oct 2.66 3.05 4.91 5.16 2.05 2.74 1.75 Nov 2.70 2.98 4.91 5.09 1.98 NQ 1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.38 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 97.20 Monthly: 1996: Aug 251.10 193.10 111.60 295.00 246.60 NQ 115.80 95.60 Sep 265.50 193.10 115.75 329.40 279.80 164.00 115.40 95.70 Oct 238.00 183.25 102.30 344.00 272.10 160.80 103.20 98.20 Nov 242.70 196.60 97.50 340.00 261.70 145.00 100.70 97.00 1997: Aug 261.60 176.25 75.50 345.60 261.00 NQ 69.80 106.00 Sep 265.70 192.00 81.10 355.00 272.10 130.00 80.30 106.00 Oct 216.00 189.10 73.75 343.75 260.40 128.75 89.40 109.00 Nov 231.60 189.10 73.25 351.25 221.10 133.00 101.50 108.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 387.1 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 106.3 34.0 33.9 444.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 122.7 33.2 33.9 435.6 Mkt year 540.0 250.0 235.0 500.0 133.0 136.0 1794.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1996: Sep 20.36 16.26 25.50 13.15 18.50 Oct 17.19 13.11 25.50 13.15 15.41 Nov 16.78 12.70 25.50 13.15 13.58 Dec 16.18 12.08 25.50 13.15 12.95 1997: Sep 16.59 12.49 25.50 NA 13.45 Oct 16.73 12.63 25.50 8.30 13.70 Nov 16.50 12.40 25.50 8.30 13.80 Dec 2/ 16.26 12.16 25.50 8.30 14.05 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96------ ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Sep-Oct Mkt. yr. Sep-Oct Sep-Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,303 2,489 14,821 2,002 2,768 Taiwan 5,938 1,121 5,482 670 924 Former USSR 34 11 131 22 22 South Africa 347 0 81 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 145 188 0 23 EU 2,842 652 1,704 53 3 Egypt 2,167 402 2,292 285 411 Canada 808 202 833 160 225 China 2,207 1,700 53 0 0 East Europe 188 0 103 30 0 Algeria 522 55 869 118 210 S. Korea 8,285 1,836 5,321 763 439 Mexico 6,453 817 3,155 728 408 Others 11,077 2,235 10,489 1,385 1,145 Total 56,494 11,664 45,523 6,216 6,578 SORGHUM Mexico 1,759 452 2,111 393 299 Japan 1,617 322 2,102 310 469 Others 1,591 226 948 156 56 Total 4,968 999 5,161 859 824 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Jun-Oct BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 2/ 373 0 88 32 828 Israel 42 42 28 28 0 Jordan 0 0 50 50 0 Japan 522 388 175 93 191 Mexico 190 25 182 114 59 Taiwan 100 33 35 4 60 Other 119 80 220 57 74 Total 1,347 568 779 379 1,212 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census 2/ For 1997/98, includes unidentified country, until data is revised. Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Jun-Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 711 1,440 576 752 Finland 22 8 99 0 35 Sweden 62 62 140 0 22 Total 1/ 1,387 782 1,680 576 809 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 260 608 194 277 Total 1/ 740 260 609 194 277 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 78 191 68 65 Total 1/ 147 83 192 68 65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE