FEED OUTLOOK April 10, 1998 April 1998, FDS-0398 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FEED OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ o Farmers Intend To Plant 80.8 Million Acres of Corn in 1998 o Lower Use with Cuts in Corn Feed and Residual Use and Exports o Forecasts of Ending Stocks Increased; Price Expectations Lower o U.S. Corn Exports Drop With Reduced World Trade and Tough Competition FEED GRAIN ENDING STOCKS RISE AS USE SLOWS Projected ending stocks of feed grains in 1997/98 were raised in April as lower domestic use and exports cut total use. Corn accounted for nearly all of the change. Total feed grain use is forecast at 259.8 million metric tons, down 6.7 million from a month ago, but up 2.2 million from a year ago. Thus, ending stocks in 1997/98 are forecast up 6.8 million from last month, and 8.5 million tons from a year ago. While a substantial increase from the 1995/96 stocks of 14.4 million tons, this would still be relatively low by historical standards. PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS: CORN UP FROM 1997; SORGHUM AND BARLEY DOWN Feed grain plantings in 1998 are expected to total 101.7 million acres, according to the Prospective Plantings report, down 1 percent from 1997. Farmers were surveyed by USDA in the first 2 weeks of March. Corn growers intend to plant 80.8 million acres in 1998, up 1 percent from last year, and the largest acreage since 1985. Farmers in most major corn-producing States expect to decrease plantings, except for Iowa, which stayed the same. The largest increases are 300,000 acres each in Texas, North Dakota and Minnesota. Expected plantings are also up in South Dakota, Kansas, and the Southeast. Sorghum plantings are expected to drop 11 percent in 1998 to 9 million acres, with declines in nearly all producing States. Most of the decline will take place in the largest producing States of Kansas, down 4 percent; Texas, down 21 percent; and Nebraska, down 11 percent. If farmers carry through with these intentions, Texas will have the lowest sorghum acreage since 1988 and Nebraska the lowest since 1953. Eleven States have fewer acres intended for sorghum while seven States are either indicating an increase or no change from the previous year. Barley growers intend to seed 6.78 million acres for 1998, down 2 percent from the 6.91 million acres seeded a year ago. Barley growers in Minnesota and North Dakota who have in recent years suffered with scab disease problems are decreasing seedings by 120,000 and 100,000 acres, respectively. Montana, on the other hand, is increasing barley by 100,000 acres. Of the 27 States that estimate barley acreage,10 are seeding fewer acres,10 are increasing acreage, and seven are showing no change from 1997. Oats producers plan to seed or have seeded 5.15 million acres of oats for 1998,down fractionally from last year's final seeded acres. If producers meet their expectations, acreage seeded would be the second lowest recorded since 1866, exceeding only the 1996 acreage of 4.66 million acres. Growers expect to harvest 3.06 million acres for grain in 1998, up 5 percent from 1997. If intentions are realized, this would be the fourth smallest acreage harvested for grain on record. HAY ACRES ABOUT UNCHANGED IN 1998 Even with strong prices for hay in 1997/98, producers reported they expected to reduce acres harvested 80,000 acres to 60.7 million in 1998. Acreage increases in 23 States were offset by the decreases in 16 States. California, up 7 percent, would have seen larger increases if not for flooding from heavy February rains. In nine States, no change in the hay acreage is expected. Alfalfa producers in Minnesota are waiting to see how much winter kill will result from no snow cover and cold weather at the end of February and early March. Hay acreage may still see an increase as CRP land continues to come out of the program and back into cropland. MARCH 1 CORN STOCKS UP 10 PERCENT, 2ND QUARTER DISAPPEARANCE LOWER Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 1998 were 4.94 billion bushels, up from 4.49 billion a year earlier. Of the total, 2.98 billion bushels were held on farm. Farm stocks were only up 4 percent from a year earlier, those held off farm were up 21 percent. Stocks of grain sorghum were 229 million bushels on March 1, down 17 percent. Barley stocks were up 2 percent from a year earlier to 177 million bushels. Oats stocks totaled 111 million bushels, an increase of 17 percent. Corn disappearance for December-February was 2,312 million bushels, down 99 million from the same period a year earlier. Pending the release of final trade data for February, feed and residual use is estimated at 1,497 million bushels, somewhat lower than most analysts expected, but still above a year earlier. Food, seed, and industrial use is estimated at 424 million bushels, up 7 percent from the second quarter in 1996/97. Exports of corn are preliminarily estimated at 390 million bushels, down 26 percent from a year earlier. 1997/98 PROJECTED CORN ENDING STOCKS INCREASED 260 MILLION BUSHELS THIS MONTH Lower forecasts of domestic use and exports of corn led to an increase in 1997/98 ending stocks this month. Except for sorghum, ending stocks of all the feed grains are expected to be higher than the previous year. Total use of corn is forecast at 9,050 million bushels in 1997/98, down 260 million from a month ago, but up 201 million from 1996/97. Feed and residual use was lowered 150 million bushels from last month, reflecting lower than expected disappearance over the first half of the marketing year. Exports were reduced 100 million bushels. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1,209 million bushels, compared with 883 million in 1996/97. UPDATE ON CORN FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE The food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1997/98 is forecast at 1,825 million bushels, down 10 million from last month, but up from 1,692 million in 1996/97. Ethanol production in 1997/1998 may use 500 million bushels of corn, up 17 percent from 1996/97. FSI use in September 1997-February 1998 was 860 million bushels, up 10 percent from the same period in 1996-1997. Ethanol use of corn in September 1997-February 1998 was up 22 percent from the 206 million bushels used in 1996-1997. Corn used in wet-mill operations in the first half of 1997/98 was 475 million bushels, 25 million above 1996/97. In the first half, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was up 7 percent from the same period last year, and glucose and dextrose production was up 3 percent. Starch production was up 6 percent, from the 110 million bushels used in September 1996-February 1997. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE DOWN FROM LAST MONTH, BUT UP FROM 1996/97 Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1997/98 is expected to increase 2 percent from the 165 million metric tons used in September 1996-August 1997. Feed and residual use in September 1997-February 1998 was up 2 percent from a year earlier. Corn accounted for 93 percent of feed and residual use in September 1997-February 1998 and is expected to represent 86 percent of feed and residual use in 1997/98. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1997/98 is expected to be up 3 percent from 1996/97's 85 million units. Cattle on feed, hogs produced, layers, broilers, and turkeys have all increased, while dairy numbers have been down along with other cattle, sheep, and goats. The feed and residual used per GCAU in 1997/98 is expected to be 1.92 tons, down nearly 1 percent from 1996/97. Cattle and calves on feed on January 1, 1998, totaled 13.6 million head, up 3 percent from 1997. In addition, the cattle on feed on March 1 for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head reporting monthly were up 1 percent from a year earlier; placements were down 19 percent from a year earlier. Thus current feed use by cattle feedlots is likely stronger than last year, but placements on feed have been below 1997 since last October. Consequently, expected feed use by cattle feedlots is declining because the calf crop from which feeders are eventually drawn was down 1 percent from a year earlier in 1996 and down 3 percent in 1997. The feeder cattle supply outside feedlots on January 1, 1998, was down 4 percent. Pork production in 1998 is expected to increase 10 percent from the 17.3 billion pounds produced in 1997, which was up 1 percent from 1996. Hog farmers responding to the March 1998 survey indicated that they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing in December 1997-May 1998 by 5 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be stronger than 1996/97. However, with increased production and the Asian financial situation resulting in declining demand for imported meats, U.S. hog prices have been low. Hog prices in the Iowa-South Minnesota market during February 1998 averaged 35 cents per pound, down from 52 cents last year. Even though corn prices are lower than last year, the weak hog prices are hurting profitability in the hog industry. Broiler and egg production in 1998 are expected to increase from the expected 1997 levels and continue strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 1998 is expected to increase 4 percent from 1997 as producers respond to strong domestic demand and lower feed prices. In 1998, turkey producers are expected to increase production 1 percent from a year earlier. Egg producers are expected to produce 6.6 billion dozen eggs in 1998, up 3 percent from the 1997 output. With these increases in production, feed needs by the poultry sector are likely to remain strong. Dairy cow numbers on January 1, 1998, were down 1 percent from the 9.3 million head on farms on the same date in 1997. In 1997, production per cow averaged 16,954 pounds, up 3 percent from 1996, and milk production was up 1.5 percent from the prior year. Milk production in 1998 is expected to total 157 billion pounds, up from 156.5 billion in 1997. On January 1, 1998, grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows averaged 19.8 pounds, up .6 pound from the same date last year. Thus with the increased grain fed per cow, feed use by the dairy industry will continue strong. PRICE FORECASTS DOWN FOR CORN, SORGHUM, AND BARLEY Price expectations for feed grains have decreased this month because of the prospects for lower use. The forecast season average farm price of corn for 1997/98 was lowered to $2.45-$2.55 per bushel, down from the $2.45-$2.65 projected last month, and the $2.71 in 1996/97. The preliminary farm price of corn was $2.53 per bushel in March, a decrease of 2 cents from February. The forecast farm price of sorghum was decreased to $2.20-$2.30 per bushel this month, down 5 cents on the bottom end of the range. The preliminary March farm price of $2.28 was up 1 cent from February. The barley price forecast was lowered to $2.35 per bushel for 1997/98, down 5 cents from last month, and down from $2.74 in 1996/97. Both feed and malting barley prices were slightly lower in March, dropping the preliminary all-barley farm price to $2.20 in March. U.S. CORN EXPORTS OFF TO A SLOW START IN 1997/98 Forecast U.S. corn exports for 1997/98 dropped 100 million bushels this month to 1,525 million bushels (39.0 million tons). Reduced global imports and increased competition caused the decline. Argentina's corn production was up 2 million tons, but some of the increased supplies are not expected to be exported until the next crop year, so forecast 1997/98 corn exports only increased 1 million tons. Reduced demand caused numerous small reductions across several countries that dropped world corn imports by 1.3 million tons this month. U.S. corn exports are now forecast down 16 percent from a year ago. According to U.S. Export Sales, corn export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) for September through April 2 are running almost 25 percent behind a year ago. Corn exports have been down sharply for more than half the marketing year. The largest year-to-year drop off in U.S. corn export commitments is to South Korea. South Korea is an unusually flexible purchaser of feed grains, willing to purchase whatever is cheapest at the moment and alter feed rations to use it. While South Korea is located near China's surplus corn region, it has also bought corn from a variety of exporters, with low freight rates making purchases of corn and feed wheat from the Black Sea competitive. U.S. shipments to South Korea through the beginning of April are down 62 percent, a drop of over 2.7 million tons from last year, and even more behind the 1996 pace. U.S. corn exports to Japan are up so far this year, but outstanding sales are down significantly. There are reports of sharply increased corn purchases from Argentina, and there have been purchases from Eastern Europe and China. U.S. sales to Taiwan are lagging notably, with shipments to date down 13 percent, while outstanding sales are only 21 percent of a year ago. Taiwan's corn imports are forecast down 13 percent in 1997/98 as hog numbers are reduced by the lingering impact of the foot and mouth disease outbreak. U.S. corn exports are also down sharply to several other Asian markets. Macroeconomic and exchange rate problems are reducing imports by Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and the U.S. exports to the region have faced increased competition from China and Argentina. U.S. corn exports to the Western Hemisphere have lagged a year ago, but that is offset by increased outstanding sales. In Canada, strong demand for corn for processing into ethanol has boosted imports. Mexico is the largest market in the region for U.S. corn, and although shipments have lagged slightly, outstanding sales are up enough to be offsetting. Several factors are likely to support the pace of U.S. corn exports during the last months of 1997/98. China has been selling smaller quantities of corn in recent months and while many expect China to continue to export, the United States is likely to face reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe in the closing months of 1997/98. Moreover, competition from South African corn is expected to be down sharply. Argentina's corn crop is record large and it will be a strong competitor during most of the remainder of 1997/98. Another increase in competition is expected from low feed barley prices, but the number of import markets willing to switch between corn and barley is limited. Export shipments in the final months of 1996/97 were seasonably low, so maintaining U.S. exports in coming months at the pace set earlier in the year, would be enough to boost corn exports in the summer of 1998 above those of a year ago. WORLD COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION AND STOCKS UP Changes this month to the world supply and demand for coarse grains were large enough to boost forecast 1997/98 ending stocks above beginning stocks. Until this month, it appeared likely that global coarse grain stocks would fall in 1997/98 as China s rising domestic use and exports resulted in a sharp reduction in China's corn stocks. However, current forecasts indicate that stock increases in the United States and Economic Union offset the decline in China. World coarse grain production is forecast up 2.4 million tons this month to 899 million tons, with most of the increase in Argentina's corn and sorghum and South African corn. This boosts export prospects in Argentina and lowers expected corn imports by South Africa. Forecast EU barley exports for 1997/98 dropped 0.5 million tons to 3.5 million. The EU Commission has virtually ended the 1997/98 export campaign despite coarse grain export licenses running 50 percent below a year ago. Barley prices in the EU have fallen below support levels, and it is likely that intervention stocks will increase sharply. Increased intervention stocks strengthens the case for additional Common Agricultural Policy reform and gives the Commission a strategic tool for influencing domestic grain prices. The annual Feed Yearbook Summary was released April 3. The electronic version should be available in about a week or so. Printed copies will be available around the end of the month. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 * * Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * * International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released on May 13, 1998. * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 387 1,946 487 2,820 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 398 1,489 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,108 431 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 444 819 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,733 1,692 5,362 1,795 8,849 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,366 2 10,251 436 2,188 380 3,004 7,247 2.52 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 2 7,249 424 1,497 390 2,312 4,937 2.55 Mkt. yr. 883 9,366 10 10,259 1,825 5,700 1,525 9,050 1,209 2.45-2.55 SORGHUM 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 82 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 7 36 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 529 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 653 0 701 9 268 49 327 374 2.23 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 9 53 83 145 229 2.24 Mkt. yr. 47 653 0 701 35 425 200 660 41 2.20-2.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 220 31 423 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 374 12 496 44 100 24 168 328 2.32 Sep-Nov 328 --- 7 335 39 12 39 90 245 2.47 Dec-Feb 245 --- 8 253 37 33 6 76 177 2.40 Mar-May 177 --- 12 189 53 14 6 72 117 Mkt. yr. 109 374 40 524 172 160 75 407 117 2.35 OATS 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 71 1.0 96 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 176 19 262 24 81 0.4 105 157 1.65 Sep-Nov 157 --- 38 195 22 27 0.7 50 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 30 174 20 42 0.5 63 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 23 134 29 25 0.4 54 81 Mkt. yr. 67 176 110 353 95 175 2.0 272 81 1.60 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- Million metric tons-------------- Mil. Tons 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.1 84.9 1.65 % Change -15.2 -23.8 -6.3 -21.7 -15.6 -14.6 -15.6 0.7 -16.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.1 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 25.1 10.8 35.9 Mkt. yr. 136.2 13.4 4.0 2.7 156.3 8.9 165.2 85.5 1.93 % Change 14.5 73.5 -10.8 4.0 16.9 39.3 17.9 0.7 17.1 1997/98 Sep-Nov 55.6 6.8 0.3 0.5 63.2 -3.1 60.1 Dec-Feb 38.0 1.4 0.7 0.7 40.8 -0.0 40.8 Mkt. yr. 144.8 10.8 3.8 2.9 162.3 6.9 169.2 88.2 1.92 % Change 6.3 -19.6 -4.5 8.3 3.8 -22.0 2.4 3.2 -0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995/96 -------------1996/97----- --------1997/98-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Feb Feb Sept-Feb Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 4/ 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 151.8 108.7 123.7 101.0 119.2 NA (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 27.1 23.3 24.2 26.8 23.6 24.6 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 117.3 117.7 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. 5/ Data series discontnued. This series will be excluded from table starting Next issue. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996/97: Nov 2.63 2.97 4.66 4.76 1.90 NQ 1.87 Dec 2.62 2.97 4.59 4.77 1.96 NQ 1.86 Jan 2.62 3.02 4.57 4.80 1.95 NQ 1.89 Feb 2.71 3.08 4.80 5.03 2.01 2.75 1.94 1997/98: Nov 2.70 2.98 4.91 5.09 1.98 NQ 1.65 Dec 2.60 2.89 4.82 5.02 1.66 NQ 1.71 Jan 2.60 2.90 4.88 5.04 1.58 NQ 1.68 Feb 2.58 2.88 4.85 5.07 1.56 NQ 1.59 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 97.20 Monthly: 1996/97: Nov 242.70 196.60 97.50 340.00 261.70 145.00 100.70 97.00 Dec 240.90 224.50 99.50 342.50 272.00 143.10 113.00 97.00 Jan 240.70 207.20 100.25 336.25 262.90 144.00 103.10 104.00 Feb 253.60 183.75 102.75 335.60 258.80 149.00 96.20 113.00 1997/98: Nov 231.60 189.10 73.25 351.25 221.10 133.00 101.50 108.00 Dec 214.90 190.50 78.20 350.50 226.60 125.80 91.70 106.00 Jan 193.10 153.10 76.90 321.90 189.50 124.10 95.30 105.00 Feb 182.10 139.10 76.50 295.00 160.40 118.40 82.50 106.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 387.1 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 106.3 34.0 33.9 444.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 122.7 33.2 34.0 435.8 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 128.3 32.8 33.7 424.4 Mkt year 545.0 250.0 240.0 500.0 133.0 136.5 1814.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1996/97: Dec 16.18 12.08 25.50 13.15 12.95 Jan 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 12.89 Feb 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 12.77 Mar 17.02 12.92 25.50 13.15 12.95 1997/98: Dec 16.26 12.16 25.50 8.30 14.05 Jan 16.02 11.92 25.50 8.50 13.63 Feb 16.10 12.00 25.50 8.50 13.66 Mar 2/ 16.15 12.05 30.65 7.75 13.78 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96------ ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Sep-Jan Mkt. yr. Sep-Jan Sep-Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,303 6,481 14,821 6,074 6,484 Taiwan 5,938 2,635 5,482 2,361 2,078 Former USSR 34 27 131 112 22 South Africa 347 261 81 58 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 223 188 56 73 EU 2,842 1,742 1,704 266 6 Egypt 2,167 855 2,292 1,210 1,058 Canada 808 318 833 463 632 China 2,207 2,207 53 53 53 East Europe 188 111 378 378 19 Algeria 522 297 869 338 433 S. Korea 8,285 3,734 5,321 3,337 900 Mexico 6,453 2,080 3,155 1,572 1,026 Others 11,077 5,880 10,214 5,472 3,403 Total 56,494 26,850 45,523 21,749 16,187 SORGHUM Mexico 1,759 671 2,111 981 1,203 Japan 1,617 886 2,102 1,042 1,113 Others 1,591 1,091 948 479 126 Total 4,968 2,648 5,161 2,502 2,442 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Jan Mkt. yr. Jun-Jan Jun-Jan BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 2/ 373 244 88 32 922 Israel 42 42 28 28 0 Jordan 0 0 50 50 53 Japan 522 440 175 134 253 Mexico 190 61 182 143 89 Taiwan 100 100 35 35 60 Other 119 102 220 88 92 Total 1,347 989 779 510 1,468 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census 2/ For 1997/98, includes unidentified country, until data is revised. Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Jan Mkt. yr. Jun-Jan Jun-Jan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 1,059 1,440 1,028 1,079 Finland 22 8 99 22 119 Sweden 62 62 140 69 93 Total 1/ 1,387 1,130 1,680 1,118 1,319 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 449 608 373 479 Total 1/ 740 449 609 373 479 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 97 191 121 76 Total 1/ 147 102 192 121 76 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE