FEED OUTLOOK May 13, 1998 May 1998, FDS-0498 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o First 1998/99 Projections: Feed Grain Stocks To Rise As Increases in Supply Outpace Gains in Use o Projected Corn Production Up 3 Percent in 1998 to 9.6 Billion Bushels; Sharp Drop in Sorghum, and Slight Increases in Barley and Oats o Another Record Expected for Domestic Corn Use While Export Outlook Remains Sluggish o Feed Grain Prices To Soften Further in 1998/99 LARGE FEED GRAIN SUPPLY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGHER ENDING STOCKS IN 1998/99 U.S. feed grain production is projected to increase 2 percent to 270 million metric tons in 1998, led by gains in corn. Because of a sharp increase in carryin stocks, feed grain supply for 1998/99 will increase even more to 309 million tons. This is up 5 percent from the previous year and would be the third consecutive yearly increase. Although large, the prospective 1998 feed grain crop would still be lower than 3 other years-- 1985, 1992, and the record year of 1994. Despite favorable domestic prospects, total feed grain use is likely to increase only modestly because of sluggish export growth. Corn exports are not expected to show a large recovery from the current depressed level, while barley exports are forecast to decline from 1997/98's large volume. Total feed grain disappearance is projected at 263 million tons, up 2 percent from 1997/98, but well below the record high of 270 million reached in 1994/95. Feed grain ending stocks are projected at 46 million tons, up about 25 percent from the forecast total for 1997/98. This would more than triple the recent low total of 14.4 million tons set in 1995/96, when supplies were extremely tight and prices soared. Thus, feed grain prices are projected to weaken further in 1998/99. While low prices should help stimulate demand by end-users, low prices for several products such as meat and ethanol will limit the response. Similarly on the export side, the positive impact of low U.S. prices will be constrained by abundant exportable supplies from competitors and economic weakness in several key importing countries. Based on assumptions of normal weather, world trade in coarse grains is initially projected to increase slightly in 1998/99 but remain relatively low by historical measures. U.S. CORN CROP FORECAST AT 9,640 MILLION BUSHELS FOR 1998 Corn production is projected to increase 3 percent from 9,366 million bushels in 1997. This reflects small increases in both area and yields, based on the March Prospective Plantings and trend yields. Harvested acreage is projected at 74.4 million acres, assuming the planted to harvested relationship of the last 3 years. The average corn yield is initially projected at 129.6 bushels an acre, reflecting the 1960-97 linear trend. If realized, this would be the third highest yield after 131.5 in 1992 and 138.6 in 1994, and the crop would rank second to the 10.1 billion bushels produced in 1994. Corn planting is off to a mixed start in 1998, with excellent progress in the western Corn Belt while much of the eastern Corn Belt is behind due to heavy rainfall. Although Indiana, Ohio, and parts of Illinois have been too wet, most other large producing States, including Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota, are ahead of normal, with Minnesota at a record fast start. Nationally, 60 percent of the crop had been planted as of May 10, above the 5-year average of 46 percent. This bodes well for yield prospects since early plantings tend to be beneficial, permitting more of the critical growing stages to occur before the peak heat of midsummer. In 1997, however, early plantings and a very favorable start to the season were negated by dryness and heat in many regions in late June and July, reducing yields. In 1998, the usual uncertainty about summer growing conditions has increased because of questions about the El Nino and its impact on the Corn Belt as it winds down. USDA assumes normal weather in its forecasts, but among private analysts, opinions fill the range from above average prospects to the potential for severe drought stress. CORN ENDING STOCKS IN 1998/99 PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN 6 YEARS Total disappearance of corn in 1998/99 is projected at 9.3 billion bushels, up 300 million from a year earlier, mainly due to gains in domestic use. This would be second to the 1994/95 record of 9.4 billion. Corn exports are projected at 1,575 million bushels, up 100 million, but remaining relatively weak. Exports accounted for 23 percent of use in 1994/95, but are projected at just 17 percent of use in 1998/99. Domestic use is projected to increase 200 million bushels to 7,725 million, the second consecutive record. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected at 1,875 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, while feed and residual use is projected at 5,850 million, up 150 million. Ending stocks of corn in 1998/99 are projected at 1,609 million bushels, the second sharp increase in a row and the highest since 1992/93. Given the tight supplies of recent years, this represents a relatively large cushion for the corn market. The stocks-to-use ratio for corn is projected at 17.3 percent, compared with 14 percent in 1997/98 and 5 percent in 1995/96. MORE GAINS FORECAST IN FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1998/99 is expected to be up 3 percent from 1997/98. FSI use may represent 17 percent of total expected use, down from 18 percent in 1997/98. FSI use is expected to be up for all the categories but corn used for high fructose corn sirup (HFCS), starch, and ethanol will be up more than the other uses. In 1998/99, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 5 percent from the 545 million bushels which may be used in 1997/98. With the U.S. economy strong and employment high, consumers are expected to maintain large consumption of soft drinks and "new age" drinks, a major use for HFCS. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose in 1998/99 is forecast to increase 2 percent from this year's expected 250 million bushels. These sweeteners are used in bakery goods to offset the reduction of fat and this market has likely matured, slowing expected growth. Corn used for starch production is forecast up 2 percent from the same period in 1997/98. The strong economy and paper recycling is expected to keep starch sales strong. Corn used to make ethanol in 1998/99 may total 515 million bushels, up from an expected 500 million bushels in 1997/98. Even with recent low gasoline prices, ethanol production has remained relatively strong and the industry is optimistic that ethanol use will increase. In fact, one firm has brought a plant back on stream, but this plant is in a sorghum production area and is currently increasing sorghum use. If sorghum plantings turn out larger than earlier intended, or if better yields increase sorghum availability, sorghum use for ethanol use could strengthen. SORGHUM PRODUCTION AND USE TO DECLINE AGAIN The 1998 sorghum crop is initially projected at 545 million bushels, down 17 percent from last year and the lowest since 1995. Most of the prospective drop is due to lower acreage. In fact, the 9 million acres that growers said they'd plant responding to the March survey are not only below the recent dip in the 1993-95 period (under the old farm program), but would be the lowest since 1929. Acres harvested for grain are projected at 8 million acres, which would be the lowest since 1953. Sorghum appears to be losing acres to soybeans and corn in major producing States. Based on the 1960-97 trend, the average yield is projected at 68.5 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from 1997. Reduced supplies will again lead to a contraction in sorghum use, projected at 535 million bushels in 1998/99. This is down from a forecast 660 million bushels in 1997/98. Lower feed and residual use accounts for all of the expected decline, down 125 million bushels to 300 million, on top of a 100-million bushel drop forecast in 1997/98. No change is expected in exports at 200 million bushels, with Mexico and Japan accounting for nearly all shipments. A moderate rise in ending stocks is projected at 51 million bushels, compared with 41 million in 1997/98. BARLEY OUTLOOK: PRODUCTION STEADY BUT USES TO SHIFT Barley production in 1998 is projected at 380 million bushels, up from 374 million last year, as a small rise in yields is expected to outweigh a decline in acreage. The projected yield of 59.8 bushels per acre, based on the 1960-97 trend, is up from 58.3 bushels in 1997. Producers intend to plant 6.8 million acres, down 2 percent, with most of the decline in North Dakota and Minnesota where many growers have experienced scab disease problems in recent years. Although not as low as 1995, barley plantings will remain very low. Harvested acres are projected at 6.4 million in 1998, almost unchanged from last year, based on the planted to harvested relationship for 1995-97. Planting progress has been very rapid so far in 1998, with 79 percent planted by May 10. This is well ahead of the 48 percent average. Generally dry conditions were favorable for planting. Recent rains in North Dakota, the leading producing State, provided beneficial moisture. The outlook in Montana, which is second in barley acreage, is more guarded because of continuing dryness. Barley supply is projected at 527 million bushels, up slightly. Imports are expected to show no change at 35 million bushels, and again consist mainly of malting barley. Total disappearance is also projected unchanged at 407 million bushels. However, while food, seed, and industrial use is expected to remain steady, there will be a dramatic change in other uses. Exports are expected to sink from the unusually robust 75 million bushels forecast in 1997/98 to 25 million in the face of more aggressive exports by the European Union. Feed and residual use is projected to rebound sharply to 210 million bushels, up 50 million. This will reverse the switch in use that occurred during 1997/98, when U.S. barley faced little export competition in the early months of the year. OATS PRODUCTION PROJECTED AT 180 MILLION BUSHELS; IMPORTS DOWN The 1998 oats crop is projected at 180 million bushels, up marginally from 176 million last year. The outlook is shaped by steady acreage prospects and a modest drop from the fairly high yields achieved in 1997. Like barley, acreage remains close to historical lows. Intended plantings of 5.1 million acres reported by growers were virtually equal to last year, while growers intend to harvest 3.1 million for grain in 1998, up slightly. Based on the 1960-97 trend, average yields are projected at 58.9 bushels per acre. Oats planting progress this spring has also been well ahead of normal. As of May 10, 86 percent was planted, compared with the 5-year average of 58 percent, and 62 percent in 1997. Early planting is generally favorable for oats to the extent the oats might avoid damage from heat later in the year. Little change is expected in oats supply in 1998/99, up slightly to 361 million bushels as a larger carryin about offsets lower imports. The most critical question is how exporters will react to low prospective U.S. oats prices. Imports are projected to decline from the record large 110 million bushels forecast in 1997/98 to 100 million bushels. The initial projection of use calls for no change, with the total at 272 million bushels and food and feed and residual use both steady. FEED DEMAND PROSPECTS Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1998/99 is expected to increase 1 percent from the 168 million metric tons used in September 1997-August 1998. Feed and residual use in 1997/98 was up 2 percent from a year earlier. In 1998/99, corn is expected to represent 88 percent of feed and residual use, up from the 86 percent in 1997/98. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1998/99 is expected to be down 1 percent from 1997/98's 88 million units. Declines are expected in numbers of cattle on feed and numbers of sheep. The grain used per GCAU in 1998/99 is expected to be 1.95 tons, up 2 percent from 1997/98. Cattle and calves on feed on January 1, 1999 are expected to be down from 1998 because the calf crop from which feeders are eventually drawn was down 1 percent from a year earlier in 1996 and down 3 percent in 1997. On January 1, 1998, cattle and calves on feed in the U.S. totaled 13,618,000 head, up 3 percent from 1997. However, cattle on feed on April 1 in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head reporting monthly were down 3 percent from a year earlier. Placements were down 13 percent from a year earlier. Thus feed use by cattle on feed is likely weaker than last year. Pork production in 1999 is expected to increase 2 percent from the 19 billion pounds likely to be produced in 1998, up 10 percent from 1997. Hog farmers responding to the March 1998 survey indicated that they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing in December 1997-May 1998 by 5 percent relative to the prior year. However, producers responded that in June-August 1998, they expected to increase farrowings by 1 percent from the year earlier, suggesting a slowing in production and feed needs in 1998/99. Broiler and egg production in 1999 are expected to increase from the forecast 1998 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 1999 is expected to increase 4 percent from 1998 as producers respond to abundant feed supplies and possibly lower prices. In 1999, turkey producers are expected to reduce production 2 percent even with lower feed prices from the 1998 output. Egg producers in 1999 are expected to produce 6.8 billion dozen eggs, up 2 percent from 1998. These increases in poultry production are likely to increase feed needs. Dairy cow numbers are expected to decline 1 percent from the 9.3 million head average of 1997, with a similar decline in 1999. In part due to heavier concentrate feeding, milk per cow is expected to grow enough to lift milk production about 1 percent each year. HAY STOCKS INCREASE Stocks of all hay on farms May 1, 1998, were up 25 percent from 1997's 17 million tons. In the 1997/98 hay marketing year, hay disappearance was 147.8 million tons, down 3 percent from 1996/97. Beginning stocks were down from the prior year but hay production was up nearly enough to offset the stocks. Since December 1, 1997, conditions have allowed less hay feeding than in the first part of the marketing year when hay stocks were down from a year earlier. The "early spring" in many areas and adequate spring rains across the United States revitalized pastures and allowed livestock producers to reduce hay feeding. Roughage consuming animal units in 1997/98 are estimated to be down 2 percent from 1996/97. Hay disappearance per RCAU in 1997/98 was 1.99 tons, down from 2.01 tons in 1996/97. Hay prices have been strong in 1997/98 and the average price received by farmers when weighted by marketing is likely to be above last year. The simple average price received by farmers in 1997/98 was $101 per ton, up from $96 in 1996/97 (the weighted season average price in 1996/97 was $93 per ton). Prices for alfalfa hay in 1997/98 were $109 per ton and $102 the previous marketing year( the weighted average price for 1996/97 was $97). Other hay prices in 1997/98 averaged $77 per ton, about the same as the $76 in 1996/97(when weighted by marketings the average was $75.50). Hay prices in 1998/99 are likely to be weaker than in 1997/98 because of the larger beginning stocks and the prospects for a good hay crop, given the current weekly pasture and range conditions of 67 percent rated good to excellent vs. 57 percent last year. LARGE, BUT NOT RECORD, GLOBAL COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION FORECAST IN 1998/99 Projected world coarse grain production is up 9.3 million tons while global consumption is up 9.7 million in 1998/99. While the increases in production and consumption are nearly balanced, production remains about 4 million tons larger than consumption, and global stocks are expected to increase for the third straight year. However, the increase is not large, and the global stocks-to-use ratio is projected to increase marginally to 14.5 percent. Although production and consumption of global coarse grains as an aggregate appear balanced, corn and other feed grains are expected to be quite distinct. World corn production is forecast over 600 million tons for the first time, while barley and sorghum production are forecast down. World corn production and consumption are projected to be nearly equal and global stocks are expected to build only slightly. This contrasts with 1997/98 when global stocks dropped 7 percent because of a huge drop in China's corn stocks. China's role in world trade is a key uncertainty for 1998/99 forecasts. In China, prices compared to a year ago reportedly favor corn area expansion at the expense of soybeans. Increased area and a return to trend yields results in a forecast production of 122 million tons, up sharply from the drought- damaged crop of the previous year. However, beginning stocks have been reduced sharply, leaving China's corn supplies in 1998/99 down slightly. Current projected use includes a 3-million-ton increase in domestic consumption, a 2-million-ton decline in exports, and a 5-million-ton drop in ending stocks. However, the quantity exported will depend on policy decisions as much or more than on the size of production and world market conditions. World barley production is forecast down 2 percent as many producers reduce area because of very low world prices. Growing conditions around the Northern Hemisphere have been mostly favorable, except in North Africa, limiting the production decline. A return to trend yields is expected to boost production in Canada. World consumption of barley in 1998/99 is expected up slightly from a year earlier, but little changed for the last 3 years. Production is expected to continue larger than consumption and stocks are forecast up for the third straight year. EU stocks are forecast at burdensome levels, and despite very large export subsidies, stocks are expected to continue to increase in 1998/99. World barley trade is expected to increase 13 percent as Saudi Arabia's imports rebound and China's imports continue to grow. U.S. CORN EXPORTS FORECAST AT 1,575 MILLION BUSHELS IN 1998/99 World corn trade is forecast to decline slightly in 1998/99 because of sluggish demand and increased competition from barley and rye. The financial crisis in South Korea and Southeast Asia and reduced hog numbers in Taiwan caused by past disease will combine to reduce the region's forecast imports in 1998/99, following a sharp reduction in 1997/98. U.S. corn exports are forecast to increase in 1998/99 despite lower world trade because less competition is forecast from China and Eastern Europe. Production in Eastern Europe is forecast down sharply because of reduced incentives to plant, and the exceptionally favorable growing conditions of the previous year are not expected to be repeated. However, competition from Argentina is expected to remain strong. At 40 million tons, the U.S. corn export forecast is up 7 percent from 1997/98, but 18 percent less than the 5-year average. FEED GRAIN PRICES EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER Reflecting a healthy increase in expected supply and the likelihood of continued export weakness, feed grains prices are expected to decline in 1998/99. The average price of corn received by farmers is projected at $2.05-2.45 per bushel for the season. This compares with $2.40-2.50 forecast for 1997/98 (which was reduced 5 cents this month due further slippage in the corn export forecast). The projected 1998/99 corn price will fall well below the $2.63 per bushel average of the last 5 years (including the 1997/98 forecast price) and challenge the $2.26 reached in 1994/95 when there was a record large crop. Market prices for feed grains have slumped in recent months as demand prospects have slipped. Moreover, price prospects for other commodities such as soybeans and wheat, have also softened. Nearby corn futures prices recently reached contract lows in the $2.38-2.45 per bushel range. Futures contracts for new-crop corn are running about 20 cents higher, factoring in some premium for weather risk above what fundamentals would suggest. Although acreage and production for the other feed grains will be relatively low, weak corn prices will weigh heavily on their prices. The season average farm price of sorghum is projected at $1.90-2.30 per bushel, down from $2.15-2.25 forecast in 1997/98. The farm price of barley is also projected at $1.90-2.30 per bushel, down from $2.35 forecast in 1997/98, while the oats price is expected to sink from the $1.60 forecast in 1997/98 to $1.05-1.45. UPDATE ON THE MARKETING ASSISTANCE LOAN PROGRAM With season average farm prices for feed grains projected to decline for the third consecutive year in 1998/99, producers are expected to place larger amounts of their feed grain production under loan. The marketing assistance loan program of the 1996 farm bill modified the previous loan program in several areas. 1) To receive a marketing assistance loan for a feed grain, a producer must have a production flexibility contract for one of the contract commodities (wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, oats, cotton, and rice). All production of the feed grain on the farm is eligible for loan placement. 2) The marketing assistance loan rate for corn is capped at the 1995 level of $1.89 per bushel. 3) The marketing assistance loan rate for other feed grains is set in relation to corn, taking into consideration the feed value relative to corn. Other features of the marketing assistance loan program are similar to the previous commodity loan programs. The Secretary may use discretionary authority to lower the corn marketing assistance loan rate if the projected stocks-to-use ratio exceeds predetermined levels. Marketing assistance loans are nonrecourse loans and may be redeemed at the lower of (a) the applicable county loan rate plus accrued interest and other charges or (b) the marketing loan repayment rate (i.e., posted county price, PCP). If the posted county price is lower than the county loan rate, a marketing loan gain is realized. Producers are eligible to receive a loan deficiency payment if they agree not to place the commodity under loan. The loan deficiency payment rate is equal to the amount by which the county loan rate exceeds the posted county price in the county in which the grain is stored. If the season average price for corn for 1998/99 is near the low end of the forecast price range, November 1998 and August 1999 corn prices would likely fall to about $1.95 per bushel, very near the national average loan rate of $1.89 per bushel. In November, daily prices at some locations in the U.S. could be pressured by favorable harvesting conditions, reports of higher than expected yields, storage or transportation problems, or weaker than expected export sales. Thus, producers could receive marketing loan benefits this fall if favorable growing conditions produce trend or higher yields for the 1998 crop. For additional information on marketing assistance loan programs, visit the Farm Service Agency Internet site at http://www.fsa.usda.gov/pas/publications/facts/pubfacts.htm or contact your local USDA Farm Service Agency office. Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 Marketing Loan Analysis: Tom Tice (Farm Service Agency) (202)720-2891 International Analysis: Edward Allen 202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released on July 13, 1998 Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 370 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 387 1,946 487 2,820 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 398 1,489 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 463 1,108 431 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 444 819 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,733 1,692 5,362 1,795 8,849 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,366 2 10,251 436 2,188 380 3,004 7,247 2.52 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 424 1,506 380 2,311 4,937 2.55 Mar-May 4,937 --- 4 4,941 489 1,175 325 1,989 2,952 Jun-Aug 2,952 --- 3 2,955 477 830 390 1,697 1,259 Mkt. yr. 883 9,366 10 10,259 1,825 5,700 1,475 9,000 1,259 2.40-2.50 1998/99 Mkt. yr.1,259 9,640 10 10,909 1,875 5,850 1,575 9,300 1,609 2.05-2.45 SORGHUM 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 4 7 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 11 305 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 11 287 56 354 467 2.44 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 11 124 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 12 82 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 7 36 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 40 529 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 653 0 701 9 268 49 327 374 2.23 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 9 53 83 145 229 2.24 Mar-May 229 --- 0 229 9 70 40 119 110 Jun-Aug 110 --- 0 110 8 34 28 69 41 Mkt. yr. 47 653 0 701 35 425 200 660 41 2.15-2.25 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 41 545 0 586 35 300 200 535 51 1.90-2.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 220 31 423 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 374 12 496 44 100 24 168 328 2.32 Sep-Nov 328 --- 7 335 39 12 39 90 245 2.47 Dec-Feb 245 --- 8 253 37 33 6 76 177 2.36 Mar-May 177 --- 7 184 53 14 6 72 112 Mkt. yr. 109 374 35 519 172 160 75 407 112 2.35 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 112 380 35 527 172 210 25 407 120 1.90-2.30 OATS 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 71 1.0 96 132 2.06 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 176 19 262 24 81 0.4 105 157 1.65 Sep-Nov 157 --- 38 195 22 27 0.7 50 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 20 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 27 138 29 29 0.4 58 81 Mkt. yr. 67 176 110 353 95 175 2.0 272 81 1.60 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 81 180 100 361 95 175 2.0 272 89 1.05-1.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.5 0.6 0.5 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 37.0 0.4 37.4 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.1 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.7 4.5 2.6 133.7 6.3 140.1 84.9 1.65 % Change -15.2 -23.8 -6.3 -21.7 -15.6 -14.6 -15.6 0.7 -16.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.4 7.3 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.8 3.1 0.9 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.3 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.1 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 25.1 10.8 35.9 Mkt. yr. 136.2 13.4 4.0 2.7 156.3 8.8 165.2 85.4 1.93 % Change 14.5 73.5 -10.8 4.0 16.9 39.3 17.9 0.6 17.3 1997/98 Sep-Nov 55.6 6.8 0.3 0.5 63.2 -3.1 60.1 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.4 0.7 0.6 41.0 0.0 41.0 Mar-May 29.8 1.8 0.3 0.5 32.4 -0.9 31.5 Jun-Aug 21.1 0.9 2.5 1.3 25.7 10.2 36.0 Mkt. yr. 144.8 10.8 3.8 2.9 162.3 6.2 168.5 88.1 1.91 % Change 6.3 -19.6 -4.5 8.5 3.8 -29.7 2.0 3.1 -1.1 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 148.6 7.6 4.6 2.8 163.6 6.1 169.7 86.8 1.95 % Change 2.6 -29.4 20.2 -3.7 0.8 -1.5 0.7 -1.4 2.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995/96 --------------1996/97----- --------1997/98-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Mar Mar Sept-Mar Mar ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 4/ 3.7 2.8 2.2 3.2 1.7 NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 151.8 108.7 123.0 119.1 112.8 90.9 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 27.1 23.3 24.4 25.2 23.3 21.7 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 117.3 117.7 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. 5/ Data series discontinued. This series will be excluded from table starting Next issue. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 Monthly: 1996/97: Dec 2.62 2.97 4.59 4.77 1.96 NQ 1.86 Jan 2.62 3.02 4.57 4.80 1.95 NQ 1.89 Feb 2.71 3.08 4.80 5.03 2.01 2.75 1.94 Mar 2.90 3.25 5.47 5.42 2.22 NQ 1.99 1997/98: Dec 2.60 2.89 4.82 5.02 1.66 NQ 1.71 Jan 2.60 2.90 4.88 5.04 1.58 NQ 1.68 Feb 2.58 2.88 4.85 5.07 1.56 NQ 1.59 Mar 2.59 2.89 4.85 5.00 1.51 NQ 1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 97.20 Monthly: 1996/97: Dec 240.90 224.50 99.50 342.50 272.00 143.10 113.00 97.00 Jan 240.70 207.20 100.25 336.25 262.90 144.00 103.10 104.00 Feb 253.60 183.75 102.75 335.60 258.80 149.00 96.20 113.00 Mar 270.40 189.10 100.90 340.00 285.00 148.50 97.10 116.00 1997/98: Dec 214.90 190.50 78.20 350.50 226.60 125.80 91.70 106.00 Jan 193.10 153.10 76.90 321.90 189.50 124.10 95.30 105.00 Feb 182.10 139.10 76.50 295.00 160.40 118.40 82.50 106.00 Mar 165.30 128.70 61.30 270.50 171.10 107.80 81.00 104.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 33.2 413.1 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 91.8 39.6 33.5 411.4 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.9 15.6 33.5 367.0 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1,592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 96.4 29.0 33.6 387.1 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 109.4 33.0 33.2 397.6 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 116.6 34.0 33.9 442.8 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 106.3 34.0 33.9 444.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 122.7 33.2 34.0 435.8 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 128.3 32.8 33.7 424.4 Mar-May 145.9 64.5 62.0 129.9 33.5 34.4 470.2 Jun-Aug 159.5 66.0 61.6 119.1 33.5 34.4 474.1 Mkt year 545.0 250.0 240.0 500.0 133.0 136.5 1,804.5 1998/99 Mkt year 570.0 255.0 245.0 515.0 133.0 136.0 1,854.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 2/ 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1997: Jan 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 12.89 Feb 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 12.77 Mar 17.02 12.92 25.50 13.15 12.95 Apr 16.94 12.84 25.50 13.15 13.55 1998: Jan 16.02 11.92 25.50 8.50 13.63 Feb 16.10 12.00 25.50 8.50 13.66 Mar 16.13 12.03 30.65 7.75 13.78 Apr 2/ 15.74 11.64 30.65 7.25 13.39 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96------ ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Sep-Feb Mkt. yr. Sep-Feb Sep-Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,303 7,412 14,821 7,270 7,682 Taiwan 5,938 2,925 5,482 2,728 2,347 Former USSR 34 27 131 112 22 South Africa 347 329 81 81 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 272 188 68 138 EU 2,842 2,014 1,704 545 6 Egypt 2,167 1,083 2,292 1,315 1,104 Canada 808 347 833 525 725 China 2,207 2,207 53 53 53 East Europe 188 111 378 378 19 Algeria 522 360 869 402 495 S. Korea 8,285 4,551 5,321 3,886 1,175 Mexico 6,453 2,460 3,155 1,704 1,417 Others 11,077 6,897 10,214 6,571 4,047 Total 56,494 30,994 45,523 25,637 19,231 SORGHUM Mexico 1,759 771 2,111 1,107 1,642 Japan 1,617 1,040 2,102 1,203 1,345 Others 1,591 1,213 948 591 350 Total 4,968 3,024 5,161 2,901 3,337 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Jun-Feb BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 2/ 373 244 88 88 922 Israel 42 42 28 28 0 Jordan 0 0 50 50 53 Japan 522 460 175 134 284 Mexico 190 69 182 156 98 Taiwan 100 100 35 35 60 Other 119 104 220 93 94 Total 1,347 1,019 779 584 1,510 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census 2/ For 1997/98, includes unidentified country, until data is revised. Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Jun-Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 1,143 1,440 1,119 1,150 Finland 22 22 99 46 124 Sweden 62 62 140 94 130 Total 1/ 1,387 1,227 1,680 1,260 1,432 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 510 608 411 523 Total 1/ 740 510 609 411 523 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 102 191 142 81 Total 1/ 147 107 192 142 81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE