FEED OUTLOOK August 17, 1998 August 1998, FDS-0698 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: This release replaces the August 13,1998,release and corrects a mistaken reference to the December futures contract price in the third paragraph of the Price Outlook Section. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Corn Production for 1998 Forecast at 9.59 Billion Bushels o All Hay Production to Drop, But Alfalfa To Increase o Ending Stocks of Corn Projected at 1,851 Million Bushels for 1998/99 o Historical Revision Made in Sorghum FSI Series ABUNDANT SUPPLIES, LOW PRICES, AND MODEST DEMAND GROWTH MARK OUTLOOK U.S. feed grain production in 1998 is forecast at 267.8 million metric tons, down about 1 million from a month ago and up 2.6 million from 1997. This reflects relatively small adjustments in forecasts for each of the feed grains. Feed grain supply in 1998/99 is forecast at 312 million tons, down slightly from last month, but 17 million tons greater than in 1997/98. This level of supply would be about the same as 1992/93 and 3 million tons less than 1994/95, both years of record production. Gains in supply will exceed gains in use in 1998/99. Thus, ending stocks of feed grains will build, projected up more than 10 million tons to 52 million and the highest since 1992/93. Total feed grain use is projected at 260 million tons in 1998/99, an increase of 6.4 million from the previous year, but just 2.3 million more than 1996/97 because of sluggish exports. Domestic use is projected to increase to a new high of 214 million tons, bettering the record 209 million expected in 1997/98. Large supplies will keep feed grain prices relatively low for the next several months. Despite this, only a modest gain in exports is expected since competing exporters also have large supplies and economic problems in many key importing countries will persist. While attractive prices should help stimulate domestic demand, product prices for many end users are also low, limiting the size of the response. For example, huge supplies of meat and low prices will keep margins low or even negative for many livestock feeders. Ethanol producers using corn as a feedstock will benefit from the low prices, but face weak prices for ethanol stemming from cheap gasoline and competing oxygenates. Also, very low prices for corn gluten co-products are competing with the lowest protein meal prices since the mid-1980's. CORN FORECAST: SECOND LARGEST PRODUCTION AND THIRD HIGHEST YIELD Corn production in 1998 is forecast at 9,592 million bushels, down 33 million from last month's projection but 226 million above the final 1997 outturn. This is the first survey-based forecast of the season and it reflects August 1 conditions. The average corn yield is forecast at 130 bushels per acre, compared with the initial, trend-based projection of 129.6 bushels and the actual 1997 yield of 127 bushels. If realized, this would be the third highest yield ever, trailing 131.5 bushels per acre in 1992 and 138.6 bushels in 1994. Production would eclipse the 1992 crop of 9,476 million bushels and rank behind only the 10.1 billion crop of 1994. Estimated acreage of corn harvested for grain was cut 495,000 acres this month to 73.8 million due to cutting corn for silage and abandonment in many drought areas. Despite the large prospective size of the crop nationally, there are very serious problems in the southern and southeast States due to drought and heat damage, and some smaller, more localized problems in the Midwest, mainly due to excessive moisture. Production in Texas is forecast to decline 18 percent from 1997 while the combined total output of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi is forecast down 16 percent. Over the last 3 years, these States have accounted for just under 6 percent of U.S. corn production. In addition, in Texas and some neighboring States, aflatoxin will severely limit the corn's use for feed and processing. This year's crop is well ahead of normal, with 96 percent silking by August 9, compared to a 5 year average of 87 percent. With virtually all of the crop through the critical reproductive phase, there is less potential for major yield loss from prolonged heat. Also, this rapid pace suggests there is limited vulnerability to damage from an early frost. CORN STOCKS EXPECTED TO BE LARGEST SINCE 1992/93 Ending stocks of corn are projected at 1,851 million bushels in 1998/99, up marginally from last month, and up from 1,449 million forecast in 1997/98. This would be the highest since the 2.1 billion bushels of 1992/93. With bumper crops of wheat and soybeans, storage facilities could be taxed in some locations. Ending stocks of wheat are projected to be the highest since 1990/91 and soybeans the highest since 1986/87. Total use of corn is projected at 9.2 billion bushels in 1998/99, down 25 million from the previous month because prospective food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) was trimmed. This total is up 4.5 percent from the 8.8 billion forecast in 1997/98 and second to 9.4 billion in 1994/95. Although both feed and residual use and FSI use are expected to be record high, exports are likely to remain weak. SORGHUM CROP TO DECLINE SHARPLY FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR The first survey-based forecast for sorghum indicates production of 529 million bushels in 1998, up 4 million from the previous projection. This is the second consecutive sharp annual decline, given a 1997 crop of 653 million bushels and 803 million produced in 1996. Yields in 1998 are forecast at 67.4 bushels per acre, up from the earlier projection of 64.7 (based on the 1988-97 average) but down from the 69.5 yield of 1997. There were also changes in both planted and harvested acreage this month. Plantings rose 800,000 acres from the June estimate as Texas producers planted land abandoned to cotton and other crops. Nevertheless, the harvested forecast was reduced about 300,000 acres because the severe drought will result in fewer acres harvested in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Despite the very poor prospects for Texas, the outlook for Kansas, the largest producing State, and Nebraska, the third largest, are favorable. As of August 9, 54 percent of the crop was rated good or excellent, compared with 62 percent a year earlier. Sorghum tends to fare better than corn under stress from heat and dryness, and Texas yields are expected to fall proportionately less but still drop 22 percent. With low acreage, Texas production is forecast at just 106 million bushels, down 80 million from a year ago and the lowest since 1953. This will aggravate local feed shortages given low corn output and a steep drop in hay production, although some of the State's large wheat harvest might work into feed channels. BARLEY PRODUCTION STABLE Barley production for 1998 is forecast at 374 million bushels, down 2 million from a month ago and virtually identical to 1997. Yields are expected to average 61.6 bushels per acre, up 6 percent from 1997. Area harvested is estimated at 6.08 million acres, down 5 percent from the 6.43 million acres harvested in 1997. Harvest was progressing well ahead of normal in the major barley States. As of August 9, 36 percent of the crop had been harvested in the major barley States, compared to 10 percent a year earlier. The 1998 barley crop was rated fair to mostly good condition as of the week ending August 9. Crop development and maturity have been advancing well ahead of normal in many States. The early seeded and fast ripening barley crop in the Great Plain States was showing fewer signs of disease problems compared to recent years. Final trade numbers for 1997/98 indicated imports of 40 million bushels, a slight increase from last month and exports of 74 million, a slight decline. The 1998/99 barley export forecast was raised 5 million bushels this month to 30 million, but still down nearly 60 percent from the 74 million bushels exported in 1997/98, reflecting fierce competition and weak import prospects. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS Oats production for the 1998 crop year is forecast at 177 million bushels, down 6 million from the July forecast, but up 1 million from 1997. If realized, this would be the fourth smallest crop since records were first kept in 1866. The forecast yield, at 60.4 bushels per acre, is 0.1 bushels below last year. Area harvested for grain in 1998 is 2.94 million acres, unchanged from the previous month and 1 percent above 1997. This would be the third smallest acreage harvested for grain on record. On August 9, 72 percent of the crop had been harvested in the nine primary oat-producing States. Hot weather in early July caused crop conditions to deteriorate significantly in several Corn Belt States and the central Great Plains. Across the northern Great Plains, from Minnesota to Montana, the hot July weather had less impact on the crop and yield forecasts remained unchanged or increased slightly. In Oregon, a record yield was forecast due to nearly ideal temperatures and mostly adequate soil moisture supplies. Final trade numbers for 1997/98 caused a 7 million bushel decline in oats imports this month from last month's estimate to 98 million, but still the second highest ever. Forecast imports in 1998/99 were also lowered 5 million bushels to 95 million. ALL HAY PRODUCTION TO DECLINE All hay production in 1998 is projected to total 148 million tons, down 3.8 million from 1997. Alfalfa hay increased 1 percent from 1997, even though acreage was down from the year before. Other hay production was down 7 percent, primarily because of the drought in the Southwest and the Southeast. Most striking was the decline in Texas where hay production was down 51 percent, mostly because of a 46-percent decline in yields. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAUs) in 1998/99 are estimated to be down 1 percent from 1997/98. The drought is not only reducing hay production and pastures, it is forcing some cattlemen to sell their herds. Hay supply per RCAU in 1998/99 is 2.31 tons, up from 2.28 tons in 1997/98. Hay prices have been weaker in 1998/99, in spite of the publicized shortages and high prices in Florida and Texas because of drought. Prices received by farmers for all hay averaged $94 per ton in May- July 1998, down from $105 in 1997, even with the decline in production. Alfalfa hay prices in May-July 1998 averaged $99 per ton, down from $111 in 1997. Prices received by farmers for hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures averaged $75 per ton during May-July 1998, down from $83 in 1997. FOOD, SEED AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN TRIMMED Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1998/99 is expected to total 1,850 million bushels, up 4 percent from 1997/98, but down 25 million from last month's forecast. FSI use may represent 17 percent of total supply, the same as in 1997/98. FSI use in 1998/99 is expected to be up for all the categories, led by corn used for ethanol and high fructose corn sirup (HFCS). However, the forecast of HFCS use was reduced 20 million bushels this month to reflect the slower pace of use in the current (1997/98) year. HFCS use in 1997/98 was trimmed 10 million bushels. Corn used to make ethanol in 1998/99 may total 510 million bushels, up from an expected 480 million bushels in 1997/98. Even with recent low gasoline prices, ethanol production has remained relatively strong and the industry is optimistic that ethanol use will increase. Ethanol production in 1998/99 is expected to total 1.4 billion gallons, up from an expected 1.3 billion in 1997/98. In fact, two new plants likely to use corn are expect to start production soon. In addition, two plants that were closed for the last few years have been or are being brought back on stream, but one plant may use sorghum, and the other one may use wheat starch. In 1998/99, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 4 percent from the 530 million bushels that may be used in 1997/98. With the U.S. economy strong and employment high, consumers are expected to keep consumption of beverages containing HFCS high. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose in 1998/99 may increase 2 percent from last year's expected 250 million bushels. These sweeteners are used in bakery goods to offset the reduction of fat and this market has matured even though there are some reports of a backlash and a return to products with fat--slowing expected growth. In 1998/99, corn used for starch production may be up 2 percent from a year earlier. The strong economy and paper recycling is expected to keep starch sales strong. SORGHUM USE FOR FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL REVISED Sorghum used for ethanol was revised upward this month for most of the 1989/90-1998/99 period. A previous revision (made in 1996) undercounted the amount of sorghum used by several dry-milling ethanol plants. These plants can use either corn or sorghum as a feedstock and selection is influenced by price and availability of the grain. Based on conversations with sorghum growers associations and some plants that use sorghum, and a review of price data, the food, seed, and industrial use of sorghum has been revised back to 1989/90 and the resulting increased use has been taken from feed use of sorghum. Plant representatives commented that they tended to use more sorghum early in the marketing year and then switch to corn as sorghum supplies are used up. Thus, we incorporated more use in the first two quarters of the marketing year than in the second. As a result of the sorghum change, the quarterly corn use for ethanol also had to be adjusted to reflect the replacement by sorghum. PRICE OUTLOOK IS WEAK DUE TO BIG SUPPLIES OF FEED GRAINS AND OTHER CROPS There were no changes in the 1998/99 farm price forecasts for corn and sorghum this month, which remain at $1.95-2.35 per bushel and $1.80-2.20 respectively. The season average price for barley was cut by 5 cents to $1.80-2.20 per bushel, while that of oats was raised 5 cents to $1.10-1.50. Weakness in the feed grain markets stems not only from large feed grain supplies, but from declining prices for many other commodities. The price of wheat is forecast at under $3.00 per bushel and the lowest since 1990/91. Soybean prices are forecast to be the lowest since 1986/87. For corn, the weather market began to play itself out during the later half of July as confidence in a good size crop increased. At the beginning of the main planting time around mid-April, the December contract at the Chicago Board of Trade had hovered in the $2.65-2.70 range. Over the next few weeks, the contract price declined, but it spiked to over $2.70 at one point in late June. By early August, the corn contract moved down to as low as $2.20 per bushel. Cash prices have been trending down for most of the summer. The benchmark Central Illinois cash corn price sank to under $2.00 a bushel at the end of July and early August, for the first time since early November 1994. If prices continue to weaken, some farmers may consider use of the marketing loan provisions for feed grains to claim loan deficiency payments (LDP), as has recently been the case with wheat. When the posted county price falls below the county loan rate, there is potential for the farmer to receive a LDP. (See May 1998 Feed Outlook for background on the Marketing Assistance Program) Even if this is widespread, the loan rate under current legislation does not necessarily represent a price floor, unlike the loan rate under the old farm program. The current national loan rate for corn is $1.89 per bushel, with county rates varying substantially, depending on transportation differentials and other adjustment factors. PROJECTED 1998/99 GLOBAL COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION OFF 5 MILLION TONS World 1998/99 coarse grain production prospects declined this month, leaving the forecast just slightly above the previous year. Drought and high temperatures in the former Soviet Union and parts of Eastern Europe reduced prospects for corn and spring barley, while earlier excess rains had damaged winter barley. Because of low animal numbers, most of the production reduction is expected to come out of ending stocks and consumption, with only a small increase in imports. Production prospects for China's corn remain unchanged this month because the flooded areas are not in major corn regions and favorable rains outside the flooded areas have likely boosted production prospects enough to offset losses caused by flooding. Forecast 1998/99 world coarse grain trade is largely unchanged this month. The increased pace of Canada's corn purchases has boosted its 1997/98 import forecast by 300,000 tons to 1.5 million. However, expected EU corn imports are expected down 400,000 tons because of the slow pace of import tender acceptances. ******************************************************************* Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released October 13, 1998. ******************************************************************* Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 413 1,756 660 2,830 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 369 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,374 16 8,948 1,612 4,682 2,228 8,522 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,293 3 9,723 383 1,951 487 2,820 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,105 431 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,293 13 9,733 1,692 5,362 1,795 8,849 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,366 2 10,251 429 2,195 380 3,004 7,247 2.52 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,090 350 1,904 3,039 2.44 Jun-Aug 3,039 --- 3 3,042 473 756 365 1,594 1,449 Mkt. yr. 883 9,366 10 10,259 1,785 5,550 1,475 8,810 1,449 2.45 1998/99 Mkt. yr.1,449 9,592 10 11,051 1,850 5,750 1,600 9,200 1,851 1.95-2.35 SORGHUM 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 5 172 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 6 66 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 3 8 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 19 297 198 514 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 803 0 821 15 283 56 354 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 803 0 821 45 524 205 774 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 653 0 701 18 259 49 327 374 2.23 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 32 17 56 41 Mkt. yr. 47 653 0 701 55 400 205 660 41 2.20 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 41 529 0 569 45 275 195 515 54 1.80-2.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 360 12 484 44 111 17 172 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 360 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 396 9 504 44 137 7 188 316 3.11 Sep-Nov 316 --- 8 324 39 25 12 76 248 2.74 Dec-Feb 248 --- 8 256 37 40 7 84 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 396 37 532 172 220 31 423 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 374 12 496 44 100 24 168 328 2.32 Sep-Nov 328 --- 7 335 39 12 39 90 245 2.45 Dec-Feb 245 --- 8 253 37 31 6 74 180 2.40 Mar-May 180 --- 13 192 53 14 5 72 120 2.27 Mkt. yr. 109 374 40 524 172 158 74 404 120 2.38 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 120 374 35 530 172 210 30 412 118 1.80-2.20 OATS 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 23 86 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 92 183 2.1 277 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 155 6 228 24 71 1.0 96 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 155 97 319 95 155 2.5 252 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 176 19 262 24 81 0.4 105 157 1.61 Sep-Nov 157 --- 38 195 22 27 0.7 50 144 1.53 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 20 38 0.5 59 111 1.60 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 29 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 176 98 341 95 170 2.1 267 74 1.59 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 74 177 95 346 95 175 2.0 272 74 1.10-1.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.6 4.4 0.6 0.5 50.1 -2.7 47.4 Dec-Feb 34.2 1.7 0.4 0.6 36.9 0.4 37.2 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.5 28.2 Mkt. yr. 118.9 7.5 4.5 2.6 133.5 6.3 139.9 84.9 1.65 % Change -15.2 -25.8 -6.3 -21.7 -15.8 -14.6 -15.7 0.7 -16.3 1996/97 Sep-Nov 49.5 7.2 0.5 0.4 57.7 -2.1 55.6 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.9 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 2.2 1.2 25.0 10.8 35.8 Mkt. yr. 136.2 13.3 4.0 2.7 156.2 8.9 165.1 85.4 1.93 % Change 14.5 76.4 -10.8 4.0 17.0 39.7 18.0 0.6 17.3 1997/98 Sep-Nov 55.8 6.6 0.3 0.5 63.1 -3.1 60.0 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 19.2 0.8 2.5 1.3 23.8 12.2 36.1 Mkt. yr. 141.0 10.2 3.8 2.8 157.7 9.4 167.1 87.8 1.90 % Change 3.5 -23.6 -5.9 4.5 1.0 6.5 1.3 2.9 -1.6 1998/99 Mkt. yr. 146.1 7.0 4.6 2.8 160.4 8.2 168.6 87.5 1.93 % Change 3.6 -31.1 22.7 -0.0 1.7 -13.5 0.9 -0.4 1.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1995/96 --------------1996/97------ --------1997/98-- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sept-Jun Jun Sept-Jun Jun ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 4/ 3.7 2.8 2.7 4.5 1.4 NA (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 151.8 108.7 112.3 88.8 152.1 94.5 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 27.1 23.3 23.5 21.3 22.5 20.7 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 5 117.3 119.7 119.7 5/ 5/ 5/ (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 4/ 11-months average. NA = Not available. 5/ Discontinued data series and soon to be excluded from this table. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu Mkt. yr. 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 NA NA NA NA 1.86 2.50 1.70 Monthly: 1997: Mar 2.90 3.25 5.47 5.42 2.22 NQ 1.99 Apr 2.87 3.17 5.21 5.37 2.33 2.73 1.88 May 2.74 3.01 5.04 5.17 2.45 NQ 1.81 Jun 2.59 2.86 4.80 4.75 2.31 2.62 1.89 1998: Mar 2.59 2.89 4.85 5.00 1.51 NQ 1.65 Apr 2.41 2.71 4.62 4.69 1.42 NQ 1.54 May 2.37 2.69 4.60 4.58 NQ NQ 1.58 Jun 2.29 2.64 4.65 4.32 NQ NQ 1.52 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NA = Not available. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.38 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 Monthly: 1997: Mar 270.40 189.10 100.90 340.00 285.00 148.50 97.10 116.00 Apr 277.70 189.10 95.90 342.50 287.70 136.80 86.40 120.00 May 296.00 193.75 83.60 355.75 277.60 128.50 82.90 112.30 Jun 275.90 190.30 72.25 349.40 279.30 126.90 64.80 115.00 1998: Mar 165.30 128.70 69.30 270.50 171.10 107.80 81.00 104.00 Apr 152.75 116.25 64.00 238.10 161.60 87.00 59.25 105.00 May 150.30 105.00 64.60 236.25 158.10 85.50 55.50 108.00 Jun 157.80 126.00 61.90 225.60 161.80 81.00 57.90 96.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NA = Not available. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.2 32.3 33.2 413.2 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 92.2 39.6 33.5 411.8 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.5 15.6 33.5 366.6 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1,592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 151.1 69.7 60.4 123.4 33.5 34.4 472.6 Mkt year 530.0 250.0 235.0 480.0 133.0 136.5 1,764.5 1998/99 Mkt year 550.0 255.0 240.0 510.0 135.0 139.0 1,829.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 Monthly 1997: Apr 16.94 12.84 25.50 13.15 13.55 May 16.67 12.57 25.50 13.15 13.61 Jun 16.38 12.28 25.50 13.15 13.37 Jul 16.20 12.10 25.50 13.15 13.37 1998: Apr 15.74 11.64 30.65 7.25 13.96 May 15.69 11.59 30.65 7.25 13.57 Jun 15.67 11.57 30.65 7.20 13.39 Jul 2/ 15.49 11.39 30.65 7.05 13.18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96------ ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Mkt. yr. Sep-May Mkt. yr. Sep-May Sep-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 15,303 11,782 14,821 11,604 11,060 Taiwan 5,938 4,601 5,482 4,311 3,053 Former USSR 34 50 131 123 22 South Africa 347 347 81 81 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 321 312 188 169 315 EU 2,842 2,632 1,704 1,356 7 Egypt 2,167 1,579 2,292 1,731 1,179 Canada 808 469 833 712 1,069 China 2,207 2,207 53 53 53 East Europe 188 164 378 378 19 Algeria 522 375 869 620 637 S. Korea 8,285 6,847 5,321 4,837 2,279 Mexico 6,453 4,807 3,155 2,379 2,984 Others 11,077 10,294 10,214 8,203 5,433 Total 56,494 46,467 45,523 36,556 28,110 SORGHUM Mexico 1,759 1,202 2,111 1,854 2,715 Japan 1,617 1,385 2,102 1,744 1,584 Others 1,591 1,347 948 825 421 Total 4,968 3,934 5,161 4,423 4,720 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Jun-May Jun-May Jun-May BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 2/ 373 88 922 Israel 42 28 0 Jordan 0 50 53 Japan 522 175 290 Mexico 190 182 124 Taiwan 100 35 94 Other 119 220 135 Total 1,347 779 1,617 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census 2/ For 1997/98, includes unidentified country, until data is revised. Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1995/96--- ------1996/97------ 1997/98 Jun-May Jun-May Jun-Apr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,302 1,440 1,282 Finland 22 99 161 Sweden 62 140 176 Total 1/ 1,387 1,680 1,696 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 740 608 733 Total 1/ 740 609 733 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 141 191 112 Total 1/ 147 192 143 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE