FEED OUTLOOK January 14, 1999 January 1999, FDS-0199 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1998 Corn Production Estimated at 9.76 Billion Bushels o 1998 Sorghum, Barley, and Oats Production Little Changed from Forecasts o Historical Data Revisions Indicate Lower Production and Feed and Residual Estimates for Some Years o Domestic Corn Use on Track for Another Record in 1998/99, But Ending Stocks Expected To Be the Highest in 6 Years o Revised Supply and Use Tables for 1992/93-1997/98 Included in This Report ABUNDANT FEED GRAIN SUPPLIES AND LOW PRICES SPUR STRONG DOMESTIC USE U.S. feed grain production in 1998 is estimated at 271.2 million metric tons, up 4 percent from the year before and the second highest on record after 283.2 million in 1994. Corn accounts for all of the year-to-year increase, as sorghum and barley production declined and oats were virtually unchanged. Total feed grain supply for 1998/99 is forecast at 312 million tons, down 1 percent from last month, but up nearly 8 percent and also the highest since 1994/95, reflecting a large increase in carryin stocks as well as the larger crop. Carryin stocks of feed grains are up 41 percent from 1997/98 to 38 million tons. Despite prospects for only lackluster exports, total feed grain disappearance will be very large because of robust domestic demand. Prices for corn and the other feed grains have been low in the first few months of the marketing year, and are not expected to change dramatically in the near future. Domestic use in 1998/99 is forecast to rise 3 percent from a year earlier to 212 million tons, the second consecutive record. Even after some revisions (discussed below), feed and residual use is forecast to be record high, reflecting record meat production. Recent expectations for cutbacks in pork production, in response to very low hog prices, will have an impact later in the calendar year, and more of a bearing on feed grains in the 1999/2000 marketing year. Exports are forecast to rise 8 percent in 1998/99, but remain fairly weak historically. Most of the gain reflects a reduction in expected competitor exports and only a modest increase in global imports. NASS PRODUCTION REVISIONS LEAD TO REDUCED FEED AND RESIDUAL Numbers in this report incorporate data revisions made by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). See Table 1 following the text for supply and distribution by quarter going back to 1992/93. In December, NASS issued revised estimates of grain production and stocks for 1992-1997. There were no historical stock changes for corn, and only a few minor stock adjustments for the other feed grains. The largest changes were in corn production, lowered 159 million bushels for 1997, 61 million for 1996, and 52 million for 1994, largely reflecting lower planted and harvested acres in several States. Corn production for 1995 went up 26 million bushels due to a slight rise in acres. Sorghum production similarly was reduced 20 million bushels for 1997, and by smaller amounts for 1994-1996. Barley output declined 15 million bushels for 1997, and smaller amounts for 1995 and 1996. Oats followed a similar pattern, cut 9 million for 1997 and less for 1993-1996. These production revisions for corn led to corresponding reductions in feed and residual use, with the exception of 1995/96 where feed and residual use increased. There were no revisions in other categories of use and the entire amount of each production change was applied to feed and residual. Thus, feed and residual use is significantly lower than previously estimated for most recent years. The largest change, a drop of 159 million bushels in 1997/98 corn, represents a 3-percent decline from the previous estimate. 1998 CORN: SECOND HIGHEST CROP AND YIELD PER ACRE U.S. corn production in 1998 was 9,761 million bushels, down 1 percent from the last forecast made in November, but 6 percent higher than the 1997 crop. The drop from the earlier forecast is due to a downward revision in acreage that more than outweighed a higher yield. Planted area in 1998 was indicated at 80.2 million acres, still the highest since 1985, while harvested acres were 79.6 million, virtually equal to 1997. The average yield reached 134.4 bushels per acre, up 7.7 bushels from a year earlier. Both production and yield stand as the second highest on record behind 1994, when revised production was 10,050 million bushels and yield was 138.6 bushels per acre. Severe heat and drought sharply reduced yield and production in Texas and across several Southern States from Louisiana to the Carolinas. However, losses in this region were more than offset by gains elsewhere, especially in the northern and western edges of the Corn Belt. Record crops were realized in Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. Objective yield data indicated record stalk and ear counts for the seven States where these data are collected (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). DECEMBER STOCKS INDICATE RECORD CORN DISAPPEARANCE IN FIRST QUARTER Stocks of corn on December 1, 1998, were 8.05 billion bushels, up 11 percent from a year earlier. On-farm stocks accounted for 66 percent of the total. This indicates total disappearance for September-November was 3,022 million bushels, up from the revised 2,845 million during the same period a year earlier and also surpassing the old record of 2,856 million in the first quarter of 1995/96. Both feed and residual use and food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) were record high, although the breakout among categories could change slightly pending release of final trade data for November. CORN STOCKS PROJECTED TO RISE TO 1,808 MILLION BUSHELS Total supply of corn is projected at 11.1 billion bushels in 1998/99, up about 1 billion from the year before. This will be the highest since 12 billion bushels in 1987/88. The increase is projected to outpace gains in use, resulting in the second consecutive year of building stocks. Ending stocks of corn in 1998/99 are projected to increase 500 million bushels, or 38 percent, to the highest since 1992/93. Total use is projected at 9,270 million bushels, up nearly 500 million from the previous year and second highest after the revised record of 9,352 million in 1994/95. The forecast of corn feed and residual use was lowered 150 million bushels this month to 5,700 million, mainly reflecting the lower plane of revised estimates. This is up nearly 4 percent from the 1997/98 record, and is consistent with a sharp drop in the availability of sorghum to feed and expectations for less wheat feeding during June-August 1999. Forecast FSI use of corn was trimmed by 10 million bushels this month to 1,870 million, but still up 5 percent from last year's record. The corn export forecast is unchanged this month at 1,700 million bushels, up 13 percent from last year's weak showing. CORN FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL (FSI) USE RISING Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1998/99 is expected to total 1,870 million bushels, up from 1,782 million in 1997/98. In September-November 1998, FSI use was up 3 percent from a year earlier. In 1998/99, FSI use would represent 20 percent of total use, the same as in 1997/98, and up 1 percent from 1996/97. FSI use in September-November 1997 was up for high fructose corn sirup (HFCS), ethanol, cereals, and other products; while corn used to make glucose, dextrose, starch, beverage alcohol, and manufacturing alcohol were down. Corn used for HFCS production in September-November 1998 was up 4 percent from Septmber-November 1997. The warm fall in many parts of the United States likely kept soft drink sales up and led to increased sales of HFCS. With the recent return to more seasonal weather, soft drink sales have likely declined and a more modest increase in HFCS production is expected in the winter quarter. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose during September-November 1998 was down 5 percent from a year earlier but may be down only about 2 percent for the year-over-year total. Many bakery producers have been reformulating their no-fat products and adding back fat. In the process, they are likely cutting the use of corn sweeteners, which may have caused the decline in glucose and dextrose production. In the first quarter of the 1998/99 corn marketing year, corn used for starch production has been down 3 percent from a year earlier. Monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy indicates that corn used to make ethanol in September-November 1998 totaled 132 million bushels, up from 116 million in 1997. This is the largest quarterly use since the 1994/95 record year, when 133 million bushels were used. This production reflects higher use of capacity and the new plants that have been added in the last year to take advantage of various State-level ethanol production incentives. Also, the decline in corn prices has encouraged additional production. However, low gasoline prices relative to alcohol have not encouraged splash blending for increased octane and ethanol stocks are large. Corn used to make ethanol in 1998/99 is estimated to be up 14 percent from the 481 million bushels used in 1997/98. Beverage and manufacturing alcohol production in 1998/99 is estimated to use 125 million bushels of corn, down 6 percent from the estimated 133 million bushels used in 1997/98. A slowing of exports suggests production will likely be down. SORGHUM CROP DECLINES Sorghum production in 1998 is estimated at 520 million bushels, down 18 percent from revised 1997 production. The average yield in 1998 fell about 2 bushels per acre to 67.3 bushels, but there were substantial differences among the main growing areas. Planted acres were estimated at 9.6 million acres, the lowest since 1995, and harvested acres at 7.7 million, the lowest since 1953. Drought damage led to large abandonment in Texas and New Mexico. In line with a sharp decline in supply, sorghum use is forecast to fall 19 percent to 515 million bushels. Most of the reduction will occur in feed and residual use, expected to be the lowest since the 1950's. Smaller declines are expected in exports and FSI use. Most of the sorghum going into FSI is used to make ethanol in plants in Kansas, Nebraska, and Illinois, as long as it available and priced competitively below corn. In contrast to corn, total stocks of sorghum on December 1, 1998 were down 11 percent from the year before to 334 million bushels, with most of decline in Texas. U.S. ending stocks for the 1998/99 year are projected at 54 million bushels, up slightly from the year before BARLEY PRODUCTION SLIPS, TOTAL USE TO DECLINE DESPITE WEAK PRICES Barley production for 1998 is estimated at 352 million bushels, down 8 million from revised 1997 production (which went down nearly 15 million bushels). Planted area in 1998 was 6.3 million acres, down from 6.7 million in 1997, and harvested acres fell to just 5.9 million from 6.2 million. Like oats, a declining trend in acreage in recent years has left barley area historically low. Plantings in 1998 were the lowest since records started being kept in 1926. Harvested data go back further and indicate 1998 acres were the lowest since the turn of the century. Weak prices and widespread disease problems in the major producing States of North Dakota and Minnesota have made barley less attractive. In 1998/99, total use of barley is expected to be down 1 percent from the 390 million bushels used in 1997/98, even though prices are weak. The pattern of use will change as feed use rebounds while exports sink. Feed and residual use in June-November 1998 was up 26 percent from the 99 million bushels used in the same period in 1997. For the entire 1998/99 marketing year, feed and residual use is expected to be up 29 percent from the 144 million bushels used a year earlier. (Feed and residual use for 1997/98 was revised down nearly 14 million bushels because of the historical revision in production and stocks). Exports of barley are expected to decline to 30 million bushels from 74 million in 1997/98, mainly because of a huge increase in highly subsidized exports from the European Union. OATS PRODUCTION EVEN WITH LAST YEAR Oats production in 1998 was revised down 2 million bushels from last month to 167 million bushels, making production the same as in 1997. Oats production remains very low and the 1998 crop was the third smallest since records were first kept in 1866. The record low was recorded in 1995 at a final number (from the recent historical revisions) of 153.245 million bushels. This was down 2 million bushels from the earlier estimate. The largest change in the historical revisions occurred in 1997 when production was reduced 8 million bushels. Feed and residual use of oats in June-November 1998 was up 14 percent from the 99.7 million bushels used in the same period in 1997. For the full 1998/99 year, feed and residual use is forecast at 165 million bushels, up slightly from the year before. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast to be steady at 95 million bushels. There have been some industry reports that hot cereal sales have been weak, but with more seasonal weather recently sales may have picked up. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE STRENGTHENS Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1998/99 is expected to increase 1 percent from the 164 million metric tons used in September 1997-August 1998. Feed and residual use in September-November 1998 was up 4 percent from a year earlier. Corn accounted for 94 percent of the September -November 1998 total and is expected to represent 87 percent of feed and residual use for all of 1998/99. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) for 1998/99 is expected to be nearly the same as 1997/98's 88 million. The grain used per GCAU in 1998/99 would be 1.90 tons, up 2 percent from 1997/98. In the index components in 1997/98, GCAU's for hogs, broilers, and layers are up from the previous year. Pork production in 1999 is expected to decline nearly 1 percent from the 19 billion pounds produced in 1998, which was up 10 percent from 1997. Hog farmers responding to the December 1997 survey indicated that they intended to decrease the number of sows farrowing in December 1998-May 1999 by 4 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be weaker in 1998/99. Production of broilers and eggs in 1999 is expected to increase from anticipated 1998 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production is expected to increase nearly 6 percent from 1998 as producers respond to strong domestic demand. In 1999, turkey producers are expected to maintain production at about 1998 levels. Egg producers are expected to produce 6.8 billion dozen eggs in 1999, up 2 percent from 1998. With these increases, feed needs by the poultry sector are likely to remain strong. Dairy cow numbers are likely to continue to trail the previous year, but with increased production per cow, milk production in 1999 is expected to total 160.1 billion pounds, up from 157.6 billion in 1998. Thus with increased milk production per cow, feed use by the dairy industry will continue strong. HAY STOCKS INCREASE, PRICES DECLINE Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 1998, were up 8.5 percent from 1997's revised 103 million tons. Stock increases occurred in 33 of the 48 contiguous States. The mild winter conditions across the United States prolonged pasturing and reduced the need for hay feeding. Drought conditions in the southern States, from New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma to Georgia and Florida, played a major role in their stock decreases from a year earlier. Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma had the largest stock decreases from last December. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAU's) in 1998/99 are estimated to be down 1 percent from 1997/98. Hay stocks are 1.4 tons per RCAU, compared with 1.3 tons last year. Hay production in 1998 totaled 151 million tons, down 1 percent from the revised 1997 total. Acreage of all hay was down 2 percent from the 61 million acres harvested in 1997 but yields were up 1 percent at 2.52 tons per acre. South Dakota became the top hay producing State, up from third place in 1997, followed by California, and Missouri. Texas, which was the leading hay producing State in 1997, dropped to number seven as a prolonged drought sharply cut other hay production. Production of alfalfa and alfalfa hay mixtures in 1998 was up 4 percent from 1997's 79 million tons. Acreage was up 91,000 acres and yields in 1998 were up 4 percent, from 1997's 3.33 tons per acre. In 1997, the National Agricultural Statistics Service began collecting data on the number of acres of new seedings to alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures. During 1998, the number of acres seeded was down 5 percent from the 4 million acres seeded in 1997. Wisconsin was the leading State with 600,000 acres seeded, down 8 percent from last year. Minnesota was second with 250,000, down from 300,000 in 1997. With only 2 years of data on alfalfa seedings it is hard to tell if this means fewer alfalfa acres or that the fields came though the 1997/98 winter with low winterkill. Other hay production was down 6 percent from 1997's revised 74 million tons. In 1998, the area harvested of other hay was 36 million acres, down 3 percent from 1997. Average yields in 1998 were down 3 percent from the 1.97 tons per acre in 1997. Texas and Missouri tied for the number one position in 1998, whereas Texas was first in 1997 and Missouri was second. Production of other hay in Texas in 1998 was down 4 million tons from 1997 because of drought and represented 87 percent of the total decline in other hay production. Corn for silage in 1998 was down 3 percent from the revised 97 million tons produced in 1997. Acreage was down 2 percent and yields were down 1 percent. Sorghum for silage in 1998 totaled 3 million tons, down 35 percent from 1997. In 1998, acreage was down 26 percent from the year earlier, and yields were down 13 percent from the 13.1 tons per acre in 1997. Total silage production per roughage consuming animal unit in 1998 was 1.3 tons, the same as in 1997. Mid-month prices for all hay reported by farmers in December 1998 were $78.40 per ton, down from $81.40 in November, and down from $95.20 in December 1997. Prices in 1998 had been weakening relative to a year earlier, even with the drought because many cattlemen reduced their herds rather than buy hay. Prices received for alfalfa hay in December were $81.40 per ton, down from $85 in November and $102 a year earlier. Other hay prices averaged $2 per ton below a year earlier during May through December. In December the price of other hay was $69.40 per ton, up from $69.30 in November, but down from $76.10 a year earlier. Given current estimates of livestock numbers and hay stocks, prices may remain weak during the remainder of the hay marketing year. PRICE EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WEAK Feed grain prices have been low through the first few months of the marketing year. The average price of corn received by farmers has stayed below $2.00. Use of the loan deficiency payments has been widespread, indicating prices in many locations have been below the local loan rate. The national loan rate for corn is $1.89 per bushel. There were hopes that prices might perk up if early season dryness in Argentina continued. While unfavorable weather in coming months may reduce production prospects, recent rains have improved conditions. Still, farm prices could strengthen seasonally in the next few months if large amounts of unmarketed supply do not swamp the market. The forecast season average farm price of corn was reduced 10 cents on the high end to a range of $1.80-2.10 per bushel. The midpoint of the range would be the lowest since $1.94 in 1987/88. The sorghum price forecast was also reduced this month to $1.60 -1.90 per bushel. Prices to date have averaged 88 percent of the corn price despite the sharp reduction in sorghum supply. The all barley price is forecast at $1.85-2.05 per bushel, after the range was tightened by 5 cents on each end. In June-December 1998, farm prices for barley averaged $1.98 per bushel, down from $2.39 in the same period last year. However, the premium of malting over feed barley has widened, averaging 84 cents so far, compared with 65 cents for the same period a year earlier. The oats price forecast was reduced 5 cents this month to $1.05-1.15 per bushel. Farm prices for oats in June-December 1998 averaged $1.13, down from $1.62 for the same period in 1997. INTERNATIONAL COARSE GRAIN FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGED THIS MONTH; U.S. BARLEY EXPORT FORECAST TRIMMED World coarse grain production in 1998/99 is forecast nearly at the same level as a year earlier, with sharply increased corn production in the United States and China nearly offset by a sharp reduction in coarse grain production in the former Soviet Union and smaller declines in Eastern Europe, the EU, and Argentina. Global consumption is expected to increase in 1998/99, mostly in the United States, with foreign coarse grain consumption forecast down slightly. World coarse grain trade is expected to increase about 1 million tons from last year's low level, reaching 87.5 million in 1998/99. U.S. corn exports will increase while those of Argentina and China decline. World consumption is expected to remain less than production, boosting ending stocks for the third straight year. Most of the stock increase is expected in the United States and China, more than offsetting the sharp decline in the former Soviet Union. Because U.S. corn dominates world coarse grain trade, large U.S. corn supplies will tend to depress world coarse grains prices in 1998/99. The U.S. 1998/99 barley export estimate was reduced 5 million bushels to 30 million this month because the pace of shipments was slower than expected. U.S. barley exports are now forecast to be equal to imports. Mexico's barley import forecast was also reduced by a similar amount. Although unchanged this month, U.S. oats import forecasts have increased in recent months. Shipments from Scandinavia were stronger than expected in recent months. U.S. imports accounted for an estimated 87 percent of world oats trade in 1997/98 (October-September), about the same as the previous year. The EU Commission awarded more export subsidies for oats during the fall of 1998 than expected. Earlier, shipments of oats from Scandinavia were expected to fall sharply in 1998/99 because of reduced production and quality. However, production estimates have increased and the Commission has raised the allowed amount of subsidized exports. Thus, in December, the U.S. oats import estimate was raised 10 million bushels to 100 million. ******************************************************** Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 694-5308 Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released February 12, 1999. ******************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1992/93 Sep-Nov 1,100 9,477 1 10,578 370 1,814 488 2,672 7,906 2.04 Dec-Feb 7,906 --- 1 7,907 365 1,401 463 2,229 5,678 2.00 Mar-May 5,678 --- 2 5,680 414 1,146 411 1,971 3,709 2.13 Jun-Aug 3,709 --- 3 3,712 407 891 301 1,599 2,113 2.19 Mkt. yr.1,100 9,477 7 10,584 1,556 5,252 1,663 8,471 2,113 2.07 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,338 5 8,456 382 1,702 435 2,519 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 378 1,241 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 422 951 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 428 790 293 1,511 850 2.34 Mkt. yr.2,113 6,338 21 8,472 1,609 4,684 1,328 7,621 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,051 2 10,903 408 1,965 449 2,822 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 408 1,494 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 450 1,162 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 439 849 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,051 10 10,910 1,704 5,470 2,177 9,352 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,400 4 8,962 413 1,782 660 2,856 6,106 2.80 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 401 1,348 562 2,311 3,800 3.15 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 429 1,048 610 2,087 1,718 3.76 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 369 530 396 1,295 426 4.31 Mkt. yr.1,558 7,400 16 8,974 1,612 4,708 2,228 8,548 426 3.24 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,105 431 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,302 1,795 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 3 11,072 444 2,128 450 3,022 8,050 1.91 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 10 11,079 1,870 5,700 1,700 9,270 1,809 1.80-2.10 Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SORGHUM 1992/93 Sep-Nov 53 875 0 928 6 261 56 324 604 1.85 Dec-Feb 604 --- 0 604 6 63 101 170 434 1.86 Mar-May 434 --- 0 434 4 78 87 170 265 1.89 Jun-Aug 265 --- 0 265 3 55 32 90 175 2.07 Mkt. yr. 53 875 0 928 19 457 277 753 175 1.89 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 6 218 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 6 103 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 5 80 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 3 40 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 20 440 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 646 0 693 7 200 64 271 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 8 73 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 5 63 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 3 41 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 646 0 693 22 377 223 622 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 459 0 530 5 170 54 229 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 6 66 67 139 163 3.25 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 5 51 36 92 70 3.94 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 3 8 41 52 18 3.63 Mkt. yr. 72 459 0 530 19 295 198 512 18 3.19 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 180 40 235 334 1.68 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 275 195 515 54 1.60-1.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1992/93 Jun-Aug 129 455 7 590 43 111 18 172 418 2.16 Sep-Nov 418 --- 2 420 37 14 22 73 347 1.92 Dec-Feb 347 --- 1 348 37 45 22 104 244 2.01 Mar-May 244 --- 2 246 56 21 18 95 151 2.02 Mkt. yr. 129 455 11 595 173 191 80 444 151 2.04 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 44 91 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 35 86 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 54 41 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 172 244 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 45 120 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 37 31 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 52 26 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 173 228 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 44 111 17 171 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 28 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 37 17 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 23 16 91 100 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 359 41 513 172 179 62 413 100 2.89 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 153 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 24 8 71 262 1.97 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 502 172 185 30 387 115 1.85-2.05 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS 1992/93 Jun-Aug 128 294 15 437 23 119 1.0 142 295 1.29 Sep-Nov 295 --- 12 307 22 40 2.1 64 242 1.30 Dec-Feb 242 --- 11 253 20 57 1.4 78 175 1.40 Mar-May 175 --- 17 192 31 47 1.3 79 113 1.46 Mkt. yr. 128 294 55 477 95 263 5.7 364 113 1.32 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 23 93 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 22 38 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 20 58 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 29 36 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 93 225 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 23 112 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 22 40 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 20 46 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 27 37 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 92 234 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 161 28 289 23 86 0.4 109 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 22 31 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 20 38 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 27 28 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 161 81 342 92 182 2.1 276 66 1.67 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 29 24 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 20 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 29 23 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 167 28 269 24 83 0.5 107 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 35 197 22 31 0.5 53 143 1.08 Mkt. yr. 74 167 100 341 95 165 2.0 262 79 1.05-1.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.1 6.6 0.3 0.6 53.6 -2.2 51.4 Dec-Feb 35.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 39.0 0.1 39.1 Mar-May 29.1 2.0 0.5 0.7 32.3 -2.0 30.2 Jun-Aug 22.6 1.4 2.0 1.4 27.4 8.1 35.5 Mkt. yr. 133.4 11.6 3.7 3.6 152.3 3.9 156.2 82.7 1.89 % Change 9.5 25.0 -25.6 -7.2 8.8 -37.9 6.8 2.5 4.14 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.2 5.5 0.6 0.6 50.0 -1.0 48.9 Dec-Feb 31.5 2.6 1.9 0.9 36.9 1.1 38.0 Mar-May 24.1 2.0 0.9 0.6 27.6 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.1 1.0 2.6 1.7 25.4 10.2 35.6 Mkt. yr. 119.0 11.2 6.0 3.8 140.0 9.6 149.5 84.0 1.78 % Change -10.8 -3.7 60.1 6.4 -8.1 145.2 -4.3 1.5 -5.7 1994/95 Sep-Nov 49.9 5.1 0.7 0.7 56.3 -0.8 55.6 Dec-Feb 38.0 1.9 1.1 0.7 41.7 0.7 42.3 Mar-May 29.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 32.3 -0.8 31.5 Jun-Aug 21.6 1.0 2.4 1.3 26.3 8.3 34.6 Mkt. yr. 139.0 9.6 4.76 3.3 156.6 7.4 164.0 84.3 1.94 % Change 16.8 -14.3 -20.0 -14.1 11.9 -22.4 9.7 0.4 9.2 1995/96 Sep-Nov 45.3 4.3 0.6 0.5 50.7 -2.7 48.1 Dec-Feb 34.2 1.7 0.4 0.6 36.9 0.4 37.2 Mar-May 26.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 28.8 -1.8 27.0 Jun-Aug 13.5 0.2 3.0 1.0 17.7 10.3 27.9 Mkt. yr. 119.6 7.5 4.4 2.6 134.1 6.2 140.2 84.9 1.65 % Change -13.9 -21.7 -6.8 -22.2 -14.4 -17.2 -14.5 0.7 -15.1 1996/97 Sep-Nov 48.0 7.0 0.5 0.4 56.0 -2.1 53.9 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.4 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 1.9 1.1 24.6 9.6 34.2 Mkt. yr. 134.7 13.1 3.6 2.6 154.0 7.7 161.7 85.3 1.90 % Change 12.6 74.8 -17.9 1.0 14.9 24.8 15.3 0.4 14.8 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 -0.0 40.5 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.7 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.8 1.87 % Change 3.8 -29.2 -5.4 7.5 0.9 14.5 1.5 3.0 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.1 4.6 0.5 0.5 59.7 -2.4 57.3 Mkt. yr. 144.8 7.0 4.6 2.7 159.0 7.4 166.5 87.6 1.90 % Change 3.5 -24.7 32.0 -2.6 2.4 -15.6 1.4 -0.2 1.7 Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 Monthly: 1997: Aug 2.60 2.86 4.97 4.71 2.10 2.66 1.80 Sep 2.61 2.88 4.81 4.69 2.29 2.74 1.78 Oct 2.66 3.05 4.91 5.16 2.05 2.74 1.75 Nov 2.70 2.98 4.91 5.09 1.98 NQ 1.65 1998: Aug 1.86 2.24 4.15 4.13 NQ 2.30 1.21 Sep 1.78 2.18 3.83 3.84 NQ NQ 1.30 Oct 1.94 2.43 4.01 4.00 NQ NQ 1.29 Nov 2.09 2.47 4.14 4.15 NQ NQ 1.32 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 Monthly: 1997: Aug 261.60 176.25 75.50 345.60 261.00 NQ 69.80 105.00 Sep 265.70 192.00 81.10 355.00 272.10 130.00 80.30 106.00 Oct 216.00 189.10 73.75 343.75 260.40 128.75 89.40 106.00 Nov 231.60 189.10 73.25 351.25 221.10 133.00 101.50 107.00 1998: Aug 135.70 130.30 57.50 245.00 156.80 86.00 53.40 90.50 Sep 126.90 115.60 51.50 210.00 133.40 NQ 43.90 89.10 Oct 129.40 106.50 56.90 227.50 141.30 75.00 49.00 88.10 Nov 139.30 107.90 66.10 313.10 154.00 74.00 60.00 85.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. NQ = No quote. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.2 32.3 33.2 413.2 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 37.5 32.8 400.6 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 55.0 92.2 39.6 33.5 411.8 Jun-Aug 136.2 62.8 57.0 61.5 15.6 33.5 366.6 Mkt year 482.2 237.1 219.3 395.7 125.0 133.0 1,592.2 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 30.6 34.8 443.7 Mkt year 560.0 240.0 235.0 550.0 125.0 139.7 1,849.7 Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 2/ 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 Monthly 1997: Sep 16.59 12.49 25.50 NA 13.45 Oct 16.73 12.63 25.50 8.30 13.70 Nov 16.50 12.40 25.50 8.30 13.80 Dec 16.26 12.16 25.50 8.30 14.05 1998: Sep 14.58 10.48 30.65 7.14 11.92 Oct 14.89 10.99 30.65 7.40 11.71 Nov 15.07 10.97 30.65 7.65 11.32 Dec 2/ 14.94 10.84 30.65 7.80 11.32 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. NA = Not Available. Table 7--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Sep-Oct Mkt. yr. Sep-Oct Sep-Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,821 2,002 14,497 2,768 2,032 Taiwan 5,482 670 3,758 924 783 Former USSR 184 22 23 22 0 South Africa 81 0 0 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 272 26 336 23 40 EU 1,704 53 135 3 124 Egypt 2,292 285 1,808 411 523 Canada 833 160 1,423 225 182 China 53 0 212 0 97 East Europe 385 30 19 0 0 Algeria 869 118 861 210 154 S. Korea 5,369 763 3,484 439 608 Mexico 3,155 728 4,116 408 852 Others 10,081 1,360 7,444 1,143 1,772 Total 45,581 6,216 38,117 6,578 7,168 SORGHUM Mexico 2,111 393 3,222 299 393 Japan 2,102 310 1,650 469 154 Others 948 156 463 56 13 Total 5,161 859 5,334 824 560 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Jun-Oct BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 88 32 922 828 0 Israel 28 28 0 0 0 Jordan 50 50 53 0 0 Japan 175 93 290 191 216 Mexico 182 114 124 59 46 Taiwan 35 4 94 60 0 Other 220 57 135 74 46 Total 779 379 1,617 1212 308 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Jun-Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,440 577 1,282 753 678 Finland 99 0 161 35 105 Sweden 140 0 176 22 212 Total 1/ 1,680 577 1,696 810 995 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 608 194 733 277 187 Total 1/ 609 194 733 277 187 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 191 68 112 65 62 Total 1/ 192 68 143 65 62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE