FEED OUTLOOK May 14, 1999 May 1999, ERS-FDS-0599 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued eleven times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1999/2000 Initial Projections: Supply To Remain Large o Corn FSI Use and Exports Up in 1999/2000 o Prices To Remain Relatively Weak with Modest Gains in Stocks o Global Coarse Grain Stocks To increase for Fourth Year o U.S. Corn Exports Up Slightly in 1999/2000 LARGER BEGINNING STOCKS OFFSET REDUCED PRODUCTION OF FEED GRAINS U.S. feed grain production in 1999 is projected at 262 million metric tons, down 3 percent from the 271 million in 1998. The projection reflects lower harvested acreage for each of the feed grains, and lower yields for corn and oats but higher yields for sorghum and barley. Because of higher carryin stocks, feed grain supplies are projected to increase 1 percent in 1999/2000. Domestic demand will remain strong, and exports are expected to rise modestly, boosting total disappearance to 263 million metric tons, up almost 1 percent from last year. Feed grain stocks are expected to increase slightly, suggesting little change for prices in 1999/2000. Ending stocks are projected at 52.2 million tons, up from the estimated 50.5 million in 1998/99. Season average farm prices for corn, sorghum, and oats are projected to show little change from this year, while barley prices are projected to increase moderately in 1999/2000. Loan deficiency payments are likely to be important again with this year's crop. Growth in global coarse grain imports is projected to be modest, while export competition is expected to remain strong in 1999/2000, limiting potential gains in U.S. exports. For corn, Argentina's exports are expected to be unchanged, while China's exports are projected up slightly. For barley, the EU will again have large supplies and its exports are projected to rise slightly, assuming continued large subsidies, as the EU remains dominant in the world barley market. HARVESTS OF EACH FEED GRAIN PROJECTED TO DECLINE IN 1999 Corn production in 1999 is initially projected at 9,445 million bushels, down 3 percent from 1998, reflecting a decline in planted acres and trend yields. The March Prospective Plantings report indicated producers plan to reduce corn seedings by 2 percent to 78 million acres. Harvested acreage is projected at 71.6 million acres, based on the planted to harvested relationship during 1995-1997. (Last year was not included in this comparison because of the unusually large abandonment due to drought damage.) The average corn yield is projected at 131.8 bushels per acre, based on a linear trend fit over 1960-98. This compares with an average of 134.4 in 1998, and down 5 percent from the record 138.6 bushels in 1994. As of May 9, 55 percent of the crop had been planted in the major producing States, slightly above the average of 52 percent, but below last year's 58 percent when the western Corn Belt got an early start. In contrast, Nebraska had only 27 percent planted as of May 9, way down from the 77 percent in 1998 and 56 percent for the 5-year average. In Iowa, the leading producing State, plantings were 66 percent complete, compared with the average of 63 percent. Sorghum production in 1999 is projected to increase 2 percent to 530 million bushels. Yields are projected at 69 bushels per acre based on the 1960-98 trend, compared with 67.3 bushels the year before. Planting intentions are down 9 percent from 1998, but a larger percentage will be harvested for grain than in 1998, when drought forced large scale abandonments. Barley output is projected at 292 million bushels, down 17 percent from 1998. The average barley yield is projected at 60.6 bushels per acre, based on the 1960-98 trend, up from 60.1 in 1998. Intended plantings are down 17 percent from a year earlier, to the lowest since records on planted acres were first kept in 1926. Oats production is projected at 160 million bushels, down 7 million from 1998. Planting intentions are down to 4.7 million acres, but up slightly from the record low of 4.6 million in 1995. Harvested acres are expected to equal 2.7 million, down from 2.8 million last year, according to farmers' intentions. The average yield is projected at 59.6 bushels per acre, based on the 1960-98 trend, down slightly from 60.4 bushels in 1998. DOMESTIC CORN USE TO INCREASE IN 1999/2000 Feed and residual use in 1999/2000 is expected be about the same as the estimated 5.625 billion bushels used in 1998/99. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) uses of corn in 1999/2000 are projected to total 1,925 million bushels, up 3 percent from 1998/99. Use in corn sweeteners is expected to increase 2 percent. Demand for soft drinks continues strong but corn sweetener use in baked goods 1999/2000 appears to be slowing. Corn used in starch production is expected to increase 4 percent, as the economy continues strong. Food use of corn is likely to continue its expansion in line with population increases. Fuel ethanol is expected to take 6 percent more corn than in 1998/99. Some new alcohol plants are being built and existing plants are currently producing near capacity. SORGHUM PRODUCTION AND USE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY Increased supplies will lead to projected sorghum use of 510 million bushels in 1999/2000. This is up marginally from a forecast 505 million bushels in 1998/99. Feed and residual use is expected to be the same as in 1998/99 at 275 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial use is also likely to remain the same as in 1998/99. All of the increase in use is expected in exports at 190 million bushels, with Mexico and Japan accounting for nearly all shipments. Ending stocks are projected to rise sharply to 84 million bushels, compared with the 64 million forecast in 1998/99. On May 9, planting of the sorghum crop was 21 percent complete, behind the 28 percent last year and the 5-year average of 29 percent. Kansas, the State with the largest intended acreage, had planted 2 percent, compared with a 5-year average of 6 percent and last year's 6 percent. Texas, with the second largest intended acres, had completed 47 percent, versus 58 percent last year and a 63-percent average. BARLEY OUTLOOK: SUPPLY AND USE DOWN Barley supply is projected at 454 million bushels, down 9 percent from 1998/99. With a smaller crop, imports are expected to increase to 35 million bushels, from the 25 million this marketing year, and again will consist mainly of malting barley. Total disappearance is projected down at 337 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial use is expected to increase slightly and exports are expected to remain unchanged. All of the decline is expected in feed and residual use. Ending stocks in 1999/2000 are projected to be down 10 million bushels from the expected 127 million bushels in 1998/99. Planting progress for barley has been normal so far in 1999, with 52 percent planted by May 9. This compares with a 51-percent average, but is down from 77 percent in 1998. OATS FEED AND RESIDUAL PROJECTED DOWN Oats supply in 1999/2000 is projected to be down slightly to 334 million bushels because of lower production and imports. With smaller supplies, total use is also expected to be down. Food, seed, and industrial uses are expected to increase 1 million bushels from the 1998/99 marketing year and exports are likely to be unchanged. However, feed and residual use is projected to be down 6 percent from the 175 million bushels projected for 1998/99. Ending stocks in 1999/2000, at 71 million bushels, are expected to remain near 1998/99's 74 million. Oats planting progress this spring has also been slightly ahead of normal. As of May 9, 69 percent was planted, compared with the 5-year average of 62 percent, and 84 percent in 1998. Early planting is generally favorable for oats to the extent the oats might avoid damage from heat later in the year. Global Coarse Grain Production in 1999/2000 Projected Larger Than Consumption, Stocks To Increase for Fourth Year World coarse grain production is projected to grow less than 1 percent in 1999/2000, reaching 885 million tons. Growth in foreign production will more than offset lower U.S. output. Production in the former Soviet Union is expected to rebound from 1998's drought-reduced level, rising almost 13 million tons. China's production is projected up 5.5 million tons because of increased corn area and yield. Argentina is projected to increase coarse grain production by 1.8 million tons as area increases because low soybean prices are expected to make corn a more profitable alternative. These increases are partly offset by reduced production in the EU, where the area set-aside increased from 5 to 10 percent. Coarse grain area is projected to drop 6 percent as producers shift more land out of barley production because wheat is generally more profitable. Australia and Canada are expected to reduce coarse grain production because low prices will cause producers to reduce area. Also, Canada is not expected to match last year's exceptional corn yields. World coarse grain beginning stocks for 1999/2000 are forecast up almost 6 percent, adding to large supplies, but the stock buildup is concentrated in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks are forecast down 5 percent at 92 million tons. Stocks in the former Soviet Union dropped sharply because drought cut production for 1998/99. Stocks in China, the EU, and Argentina, important exporters, are up. So exportable coarse grain supplies in 1999/2000 are expected to be abundant. Global coarse grain consumption is projected to increase by 1.4 percent to 882 million tons. This is only 2 million tons less than projected production, so the world coarse grains market is expected to be fairly balanced. Food consumption is boosted by increased production in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. World feed demand growth is sluggish because of weak economic growth in some regions, especially Eastern Asia. In the EU, relative prices are expected to encourage increased wheat feeding, leaving coarse grain feed use flat. In Eastern Europe, feed use is expected to decline as consumer demand for meat remains weak because of economic and political problems. Feed use in China is expected to increase 4 million tons, while more modest increases are likely in South America, Mexico, South Korea, and the former Soviet Union. With global coarse grain production and consumption nearly balanced in 1999/2000, ending stocks are not expected to increase much. However, stocks are expected to increase in some countries while declining in others. China is expected to boost already large coarse grain stocks by 15 percent, as corn production continues larger than consumption. The former Soviet Union's stocks will rebound but production gains will not be sufficient to push stocks up to 1997/98 levels. In the EU and most other foreign countries coarse grains stocks are expected to decline some. World coarse grain trade (October/September international marketing year, excluding intra-EU trade) is projected at 92 million tons in 1999/2000, up more than 2 percent. This is the second year of growth in trade, but the level of trade remains below that reached in 1996/97 and almost 15 percent less than the record reached in 1980/81 when both China and the Soviet Union were massive importers. Coarse grain imports in 1999/2000 are expected to increase by a small amount in a large number of importing countries. The largest expected increases include: 800,000 tons in South Korea, where livestock production is recovering from the financial crisis and imports of feed wheat and other competing feeds are expected to be smaller; 500,000 tons in Iran, where drought has reduced barley production, increasing the need for imports; and 450,000 tons in Saudi Arabia, where grain feeding is expected to increase because dryness reduced forage supplies. A drop of more than 1 million tons is expected for Russia, because of rebounding production and an end to aid shipments. Russia is expected to export more than 1 million tons, mostly barley. China is expected to increase exports by 0.5 million tons in 1999/2000. Although corn production is expected to increase sharply, the high internal price and continued low international prices will make it difficult for China to export without costly subsidies. A major uncertainty regarding coarse grain trade in 1999/2000 is the level of China's subsidized corn exports. Small increases in coarse grain exports in 1999/2000 are projected for Argentina, Canada, the EU, and Eastern Europe, while small reductions are expected in Australia, South Africa, and Turkey. U.S. Corn Exports Up Slightly in 1999/2000 As World Trade Grows, But Competition from Argentina and China Remains Strong World corn production is projected up by a little more than 1 percent in 1999/2000, reaching 601 million tons. Foreign production is expected to increase 5 percent, with a 6 million ton increase in China, and significant increases also in Argentina, Eastern Europe, the EU, and South Africa. Global corn consumption is projected to grow rapidly in 1999/2000, increasing almost 3 percent, or 15 million tons. However, world corn production remains larger than consumption, boosting forecast ending stocks by almost 6 million tons, mostly in China. World corn trade is projected up 1 million tons to 65 million. The United States is expected to capture about half the growth in world corn trade, boosting U.S. exports to 47 million tons. However, increased production in China and Argentina will provide strong competition for U.S. corn exports in many markets. In contrast to corn, world barley production is projected down slightly in 1999/2000 to 136 million tons. The former Soviet Union is expected to rebound from drought, increasing barley production by nearly 7 million tons, but this is more than offset by reduced production in the rest of the world. EU production is forecast down 3 million tons because of the increased area set aside. Low prices have caused producers in many countries to reduce area planted to barley. Moreover, drought in the Middle East and parts of North Africa is contributing to declining production. Global barley consumption is projected to decline some in 1999/2000, but remain larger than production, resulting in reduced stocks. World barley trade is expected to increase because of growing demand from Iran and Saudi Arabia, where dryness is expected to increase the feeding of imported grain to sheep and camels. The EU is expected to continue to aggressively subsidize barley exports, keeping prices attractive to importers. EU barley stocks are projected to remain large, declining by less than 5 percent. World sorghum production is expected to decline 4 percent in 1999/2000 to 60 million tons. Lower production is expected in Sudan, Mexico, and Australia. Global oats production is projected up less than 1 million tons to 26 million. Production is 1.2 million tons in the former Soviet Union, and up slightly in the EU, while most other countries reduce production because of low profitability. HAY DISAPPEARANCE DECLINED IN 1998/99 Total hay stocks on May 1, 1999, were 24.795 million tons, up 14 percent from 1998. In 1998/99 (May-April hay year), disappearance per roughage consuming animal unit was up 1 percent from the 1.98 tons consumed in 1997/98. In March 1999, farmers indicated they intended to harvest 77,000 fewer acres this year than in 1998. Even with the drought, prices for all hay in 1998 had been weakening relative to a year earlier because many cattlemen reduced their herds rather than buy hay. Given estimated livestock numbers, current pasture and range conditions, and hay stocks, prices are expected to remain weak in the 1999/2000 hay marketing year. FEED AND RESIDUAL UPDATE Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is expected to total 163.5 million metric tons, up from the estimated 163.3 million in 1998/99. Feed and residual use of corn and sorghum is projected to be about the same as in 1998/99. Use of other grains is up slightly. Grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) in 1999/2000 are expected to total 86.5 million, down from 88.2 million in 1998/99. Declines are expected in cattle on feed, hogs, and dairy, with increases in poultry. Feed and residual use per GCAU is projected to equal 1.89 tons, up from 1.85 tons in 1998/99. Commercial beef production in 2000 is forecast at 24.050 billion pounds, down 6 percent from 1999. In 1998, 81.5 percent of the cattle slaughtered were steers and heifers, animals finished in feedlots on a high grain ration. Cattle inventories have been declining since 1996, but on-feed inventories have been held up by a larger number of heifers on feed. As heifer retention begins in late 1999 into the 2000 breeding season, feedlot placements will decline sharply, reducing beef production in 2000. The decrease in beef production should reduce the grain needed for cattle on feed, although increased days on feed will be partially offsetting. In 1999, commercial beef production is projected to be down 131 million pounds from 1998's 25.653 billion, with the largest reduction expected in the fourth quarter. Commercial pork production in 2000 is expected to total 18.475 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the 1999 estimate. Since hogs are largely fed a grain diet, reduced production means less feed needed. In addition, commercial pork production is expected to total 18.84 billion pounds in 1999, down nearly 1 percent from 1998's record. Pork production in the first half of 1999 is projected to be up from the prior year, but down sharply in the fourth quarter. The pork production forecasts suggest lower feed needs at the end of the 1998/99 feed year and into the 1999/2000 year. Broiler production in 2000 is expected to increase 5 percent from the 29 billion pounds forecast for 1999. Forecast broiler production in 1999 is up 6 percent from 1998. With low grain prices helping to hold down costs, broiler producers are likely to continue receiving positive returns, encouraging increased output. Returns for turkey and egg producers are also favorable and they are increasing output. In 2000, turkey production is projected to increase 2 percent from the expected 5.3 billion pounds for 1999, which was about the same as 1998. Egg production in 2000 is expected to be up 2 percent from the 6.8 billion dozen forecast for 1999. Expected 1999 production is up nearly 3 percent from 1998's 6.7 billion dozen. Thus, feed needs by the poultry industry are likely to increase through 2000. For 1999/2000 (October/September marketing year) milk production is expected to total 165.3 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the forecast 161.5 billion in 1998/99. In 1998/99, estimated milk production is up 3 percent from a year earlier. These increases will sustain strong demand for feed by the dairy industry through 1999/2000. FEED GRAIN PRICES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK Reflecting an increase in expected supply and the likelihood of only small export gains, feed grain prices are expected to remain weak in 1999/2000. The average price of corn received by farmers is projected at $1.80-2.20 per bushel for the season. This compares with $1.95-2.05 forecast for 1998/99. Although acreage and production for the other feed grains will be relatively low, weak corn prices will weigh heavily on their prices. The season average farm price of sorghum is projected at $1.50-1.90 per bushel, compared with the $1.65-1.75 forecast in 1998/99. The oats price received by farmers is expected to range between $.95 and $1.35 in 1999/200, compared with the $1.15 forecast in 1998/99. The farm price of barley is projected at $1.85-2.25 per bushel, compared with the $1.95 forecast for 1998/99. The mix of malting barley versus feed barley and the size of the malting premium will heavily shape the barley price outlook. **************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 The next Feed Outlook will be released June 15, 1999. ***************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 4 11,073 444 2,127 450 3,021 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,470 465 2,362 5,696 2.04 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 15 11,084 1,860 5,625 1,825 9,310 1,774 1.95-2.05 1999/00 Mkt. yr.1,774 9,445 10 11,229 1,925 5,625 1,850 9,400 1,829 1.80-2.20 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 30 64 109 226 1.70 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 275 185 505 64 1.65-1.75 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 64 530 0 594 45 320 190 510 84 1.50-1.90 Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 153 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 33 7 76 200 1.90 Mkt. yr. 119 352 25 497 170 170 30 370 127 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 127 292 35 454 172 135 30 337 117 1.85-2.25 OATS 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 28 25 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 167 28 269 24 83 0.5 107 162 1.10 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 35 0.5 56 109 1.20 Mkt. yr. 74 167 105 346 95 175 2.0 272 74 1.15 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 74 160 100 334 96 165 2.0 263 71 .95-1.35 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1996/97 Sep-Nov 48.0 7.0 0.5 0.4 56.0 -2.1 53.9 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.3 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 1.9 1.1 24.6 9.6 34.2 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.1 3.6 2.6 154.0 7.7 161.6 85.3 1.89 % Change 12.6 74.8 -17.9 1.3 14.8 24.8 15.3 0.4 14.8 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 -0.0 40.5 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.6 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.4 7.3 0.9 14.1 1.5 3.0 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.1 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 39.4 0.5 39.9 Mkt. yr. 142.9 7.0 3.1 2.9 155.9 7.5 163.3 88.2 1.85 % Change 2.2 -24.6 -9.0 3.0 0.3 -15.0 -0.5 0.3 -0.8 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 142.9 7.0 3.5 2.7 156.0 7.5 163.5 86.5 1.89 % Change 0.0 -0.0 11.1 -7.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 -2.0 2.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 Monthly: 1997/98: Dec 2.60 2.89 4.82 5.02 1.66 NQ 1.71 Jan 2.60 2.90 4.88 5.04 1.58 NQ 1.68 Feb 2.58 2.88 4.85 5.07 1.56 NQ 1.59 Mar 2.59 2.89 4.85 5.00 1.51 NQ 1.65 1998/99: Dec 2.08 2.42 3.94 4.12 NQ NQ 1.31 Jan 2.07 2.48 3.79 4.13 NQ NQ 1.33 Feb 2.05 2.40 3.78 4.11 NQ NQ 1.26 Mar 2.09 2.45 3.85 4.16 NQ NQ 1.35 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 Monthly: 1997/98: Dec 214.90 190.50 78.20 350.50 226.60 125.80 91.70 102.00 Jan 193.10 153.10 76.90 321.90 189.50 124.10 95.30 102.00 Feb 182.10 139.10 76.50 295.00 160.40 118.40 82.50 105.00 Mar 165.30 128.70 69.30 270.50 171.10 107.80 81.00 102.00 1998/99: Dec 139.60 119.75 74.40 291.00 151.20 78.00 68.10 81.40 Jan 131.00 110.60 75.90 257.50 143.00 87.00 80.10 81.40 Feb 124.40 101.25 62.50 222.50 131.70 97.00 62.00 82.00 Mar 127.20 106.90 56.00 198.00 124.50 92.00 68.50 82.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.4 443.7 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.5 34.0 427.0 Mkt year 565.0 240.0 230.0 540.0 127.0 138.0 1,840.0 1999/00 Mkt year 580.0 245.0 240.0 570.0 130.0 140.0 1,905.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 Monthly 1998/99: Jan 16.02 11.92 25.50 8.50 13.63 Feb 16.10 12.00 25.50 8.50 13.66 Mar 16.09 11.99 30.65 7.75 13.78 Apr 15.74 11.64 30.65 7.25 13.96 1999/00: Jan 15.13 11.03 30.65 7.95 11.17 Feb 15.24 11.14 30.65 7.95 11.11 Mar 15.47 11.37 25.68 8.28 11.50 Apr 2/ 15.22 11.12 15.75 8.45 11.98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Jun-Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,440 1,119 1,282 1,150 973 Finland 99 46 161 124 172 Sweden 140 94 176 130 333 Total 1/ 1,680 1,260 1,696 1,432 1,479 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 608 411 733 523 376 Total 1/ 609 411 733 523 376 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 191 142 112 81 71 Total 1/ 192 142 143 81 71 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Sep-Feb Mkt. yr. Sep-Feb Sep-Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,821 7,327 14,497 7,720 7,255 Taiwan 5,482 2,728 3,758 2,347 2,098 Former USSR 184 112 23 22 1 South Africa 81 81 0 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 272 68 336 138 110 EU 1,704 545 135 6 191 Egypt 2,292 1,315 1,808 1,104 1,297 Canada 833 525 1,423 725 357 China 53 53 212 53 154 East Europe 385 385 19 19 0 Algeria 869 469 861 495 548 S. Korea 5,369 3,886 3,484 1,175 2,668 Mexico 3,155 1,704 4,116 1,417 2,403 Others 10,081 6,439 7,444 4,009 6,115 Total 45,581 25,637 38,117 19,231 23,196 SORGHUM Mexico 2,111 1,107 3,222 1,642 1,325 Japan 2,102 1,203 1,650 1,345 915 Others 948 591 463 351 348 Total 5,161 2,901 5,334 3,337 2,588 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Mkt. yr. Jun-Feb Jun-Feb BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 88 88 922 922 0 Israel 28 28 0 0 0 Jordan 50 50 53 53 0 Japan 175 134 290 284 361 Mexico 182 156 124 98 68 Taiwan 35 35 94 60 0 Other 220 92 135 93 74 Total 779 584 1,617 1510 502 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census. END_OF_FILE