FEED OUTLOOK July 14, 1999 July 1999 FDS-0799 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on April 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Feed Grain Supply for 1999/2000 Projected to be Highest Since 1987/88 o June 1 Corn Stocks Indicate Slower Than Expected Disappearance in March-May o Forecast Corn Use Cut, Ending Stocks Rise in 1998/99 and 1999/2000 o Both 1998/99 and 1999/2000 U.S. Corn Exports Increased to 1,925 Million Bushels LARGER CARRYIN EXPANDS 1999/2000 FEED GRAIN SUPPLY An increase in forecast carryin stocks and larger 1999 production, especially corn, has led to a 2-percent rise in feed grain supply this month. Beginning stocks were increased 900,000 metric tons to 50.2 million because of lower 1998/99 domestic use. Supply is projected at 321.3 million tons, the highest since 1987/88, even though corn production is expected to be down from last year. Feed grain production for 1999/2000 is projected at 268.4 million tons, up 2 percent from a month ago due to increases in sorghum, corn, and barley. Planted and harvested acreage estimates provided in the June 30 Acreage report showed slight declines from earlier intentions for corn and barley, while sorghum acres increased and oats remained about the same. The first survey production forecast of barley and oats was slightly higher than last month's projection, which was based on trend yields and expected plantings. USDA will make its first survey-based forecasts for corn and sorghum in August. The forecast of total use of feed grains in 1998/99 was trimmed slightly this month, reflecting lower than expected disappearance in the March-May quarter and weaker prospects for the remainder of the year. The projection of total use in 1999/2000 was also reduced fractionally from the previous month due to reduced feed and residual prospects for corn. Forecast 1999/2000 exports were raised 4 percent from last month to 54.7 million tons. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 56.4 million tons, up 5.8 million from last month and the largest since 1995/96. Prices are expected to remain weak in 1999/2000, given the projected increase in supply and little gain in use. CORN CROP PROJECTED AT 9,650 MILLION BUSHELS The projection of 1999 corn production was increased 2 percent from last month because of a 3-percent increase in expected yields and 1 percent decline in the estimate of harvested acres. Harvested corn acres are forecast at 71 million, down 2 percent from 1998. Yield forecasts were increased this month because of generally favorable conditions and reports of high plant populations. Projected yields are up 4 bushels per acre from the trend yield used last month. As of July 11, 78 percent of the corn crop was rated good or excellent, up from 68 percent last year. However, as usual, the crop could move either way, depending on conditions in the next month. SORGHUM PRODUCTION UP, OATS AND BARLEY DOWN Sorghum production in 1999 is projected at 573 million bushels, up 43 million from a month ago because of more harvested acres. Sorghum plantings are estimated at 9 million acres, up 200,000 from the March intentions. Harvested area is forecast at 8.3 million acres, up 600,000 from last month's projection, which was based on March planting intentions and a 3-year average difference between planted and harvested acres. The first survey-based forecast of barley production is 295 million bushels, up 3 million from the previous projection and 57 million lower than the 1998 crop. Planted area declined about 100,000 acres from earlier intentions to 5.2 million, the lowest since records were first kept in 1926. Harvested acres are estimated at 4.9 million. Average barley yields are forecast at 60.3 bushels per acre, down from last month's trend-based projection of 60.6 bushels. Oats production is forecast at 161 million bushels in 1999 according to the first survey results, up 1 million from the initial projection. Planted acres are the same as intentions, but harvested acres are down 100,000, and down 200,000 from 1998. Yields are forecast at 61.1 bushels per acre, up 1 percent from 1998. Production during 1999 is forecast down 4 percent from last year and would rank as the second lowest crop ever. HAY HARVESTED ACREAGE INCREASES The acreage farmers reported they intend to harvest for hay in 1999 was up 1,858,000 acres from the March intentions report and 1,935,000 acres from the 60 million harvested in 1998. Acreage harvested of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures will be up 1 percent from 1998, while all other hay is expected to be up 4 percent. The biggest increases in hay acreage from last year are in Texas (770,000 acres) and Oklahoma (350,000), where producers are rebuilding supplies depleted by the drought last year. Weekly pasture and range conditions for the week ending July 4 were rated as 66 percent good and excellent, up from 54 percent last year. The dry hot weather in the Southeast has been favorable for harvesting hay, but has slowed re-growth. ENDING STOCKS OF CORN UP SHARPLY Because of increased production and lower domestic use, the projection of 1999/2000 corn ending stocks was raised 212 million bushels this month to 1,994 million. Carryin stocks of corn were raised 17 million bushels to 1,744 million because of several changes in 1998/99 forecasts: feed and residual use was reduced 50 million to 5,575 million, food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use was decreased 15 million to 1,845 million, but exports were raised 50 million and imports 2 million. Sorghum ending stocks are projected at 67 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from last month. Increased expected production boosted feed and residual use, plus increased availability should increase ethanol use. Projected ending stocks of barley increased to 134 million bushels, as higher reported carryin stocks and prospective production raised supply above use. Oats stocks are projected 9 million higher than a month ago at 80 million, as higher carryin stocks plus production provided the increase. MARCH-MAY 1998/99 CORN DISAPPEARANCE ESTIMATED AT 2.1 BILLION BUSHELS Corn stocks on June 1 were reported at 3,616 million bushels, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks totaled 1,359 million bushels, and those on farms were 2,257 million. This places estimated disappearance for March-May at about 2.1 billion bushels, up 10 percent from the same period a year ago, but down 4 percent from the record of 1994/95. All of the use categories were stronger than last year, FSI use and exports of corn were comparatively stronger. The preliminary breakout by category of use can be found in table 1, with some changes possible pending the release of final trade data for May. FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN IN 1999/2000 TO INCREASE Food, seed, and industrial use of corn in 1999/2000 is expected to total 1,910 million bushels, down 15 million bushels this month, and up 4 percent from 1998/99. In 1998/99, FSI use is expected to be up 4 percent from the 1,782 million bushels used in 1997/98. In 1999/2000, FSI use, if realized, would represent 20 percent of total use, the same as in 1998/99, and 1997/1998. FSI use in 1998/99 is expected to increase for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and ethanol. The forecast of 1998/99 FSI use was trimmed 15 million bushels this month, with corn for HFCS down 10 million bushels, and starch down 5 million. Corn used for HFCS production in September 1998-May 1999 was up 4 percent from the same period in 1997/98. Since HFCS is used in soft drinks, the June-August quarter is usually the strongest and is expected to keep yearly production up 4 percent. In 1999/2000, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 3 percent from the 555 million bushels used in 1998/99. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose during September 1998-May 1999 was down 4 percent from the year earlier and is expected to be down 4 percent for the year-over-year total. In the first 3 quarters of the 1998/99 corn marketing year, corn used for starch production has been down 3 percent from the same period in 1997/98. For all of 1998/99, corn used to make starch is expected to decrease 1 percent from 1997/98. Based on the monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy, corn used to make ethanol was estimated to be up 12 percent from the 481 million bushels used in 1997/98. In 1999/2000, corn used to produce ethanol is expected to increase 6 percent from the anticipated 540 million bushels used in 1998/99. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE IN 1999/2000 TO DECLINE Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is expected to be about the same as the expected 163 million metric tons used in September 1998-August 1999. Feed and residual use in 1998/99 is forecast down 1 percent from the year earlier. Corn, which accounted for 85 percent of feed and residual use in 1997/98, is expected to represent 87 percent in 1998/99 and 1999/2000. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 1999/2000 is expected to be down 1.5 million units from 1998/99's 88.5 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1999/2000 would be 1.88 tons, up 2 percent from 1998/99. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy, hogs, and cattle on feed are down and poultry are up. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on June 1 were up 3 percent from a year earlier. Placements were about the same as a year earlier. Thus, current feed use by cattle feedlots is probably stronger than last year. Recent calf crops would suggest placements should be declining. The cow herd has been declining since 1996, and fewer heifers are being kept for replacements. Heifers kept for herd replacements in late 1999 and 2000 are expected to increase from current low levels and reduce the number of cattle on feed. As a result, cattle on feed numbers in 1999/2000 may be down from 1998/99, and feed use could be weaker. Pork production in 2000 is expected to decrease 3 percent from the 19 billion pounds expected in 1999, which is up 1 percent from 1998. Hog farmers responding to the June 1999 survey indicated that they intended to decrease the number of sows farrowing in June-November 1999 by 4 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be weaker in 1999/2000. With low grain prices keeping feed costs low, broiler and egg production in 2000 are expected to increase from the expected 1999 levels and continue strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 2000 is expected to increase 5 percent from 1999 as producers respond to strong domestic demand as well as abundant feed supplies and lower prices. Turkey production in 1999 is expected to total 5.3 billion pounds, about the same as 1998. In 2000, turkey producers are expected to increase production by 120 million pounds from the expected 1999 output. Egg producers are expected to produce 7 billion dozen eggs in 2000, up 2 percent from the expected 1999 output. U.S. PRICE EXPECTATIONS WEAKEN FOR 1999/2000 The farm price of corn for 1999/2000 is forecast at $1.65-$2.05 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. This compares with the forecast price of $1.95 for the 1998/99 marketing year that is now winding down. Price prospects for 1999/2000 mark a strong contrast to the higher plane of prices that have prevailed in recent years, and the season average will likely be the lowest since $1.94 per bushel in 1987/88 or $1.50 in 1986/87. With increasing production prospects, the forecast sorghum price for 1999/2000 was dropped 15 cents to $1.35-$1.75 per bushel. This reflects the critical influence of the corn market, which weighs heavily on the other feed grains. The season average price of barley is forecast at $1.60-$2.00 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. Prices for oats were lowered 5 cents this month to $0.90-$1.30 per bushel because of the lower prices for corn. INCREASED DEMAND IN KEY IMPORTERS AND REDUCED COMPETITION FROM CHINA BOOST U.S. CORN EXPORTS China's forecast corn exports were reduced to 2.5 million tons this month for both 1998/99 and 1999/2000, a drop of 0.5 million and 1.5 million tons. U.S. and world prices are much below corn prices in China, making large subsidies necessary for China to export. The slower-than-expected pace of exports reduced the 1998/99 forecast this month. Moreover, with this month's reduction in 1999/2000 forecast U.S. corn prices, it is unlikely that world prices will increase enough in 1999/2000 to allow China to make large exports unless policymakers decide to authorize large subsidies. Even though favorable planting conditions and attractive internal prices have boosted China's planted area and production this month, corn export prospects were reduced, and ending stocks increased. With increased corn production and stocks in China and the United States, this month 1999/2000 global ending stocks of corn are forecast at 110 million tons, the highest since 1987/88. U.S. corn export prospects for 1999/2000 have also been boosted this month by increased import demand in Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Morocco, and Iran. In Japan, demand for corn for industrial processing into sweeteners and alcohol has more than made up for declining feed use. In South Korea, feed demand from the livestock sector has turned around faster than expected. Demand in Mexico is also strong. Drought has reduced grain production in Morocco and Iran, increasing the need for imports. However, world corn trade in 1999/2000 was not increased, mostly because imports by Sub-Saharan Africa were reduced this month. A review of trade data resulted in reduced corn imports for the region for 1997/98 and 1998/99. The pace of corn sales and shipments reported in U.S. Export Sales also supports the increased 1998/99 U.S. corn export forecast. U.S. corn exports are forecast up 28 percent, while through the first 10 months of the year, shipments are up 32 percent and outstanding sales for 1998/99 are up 45 percent. World coarse grain trade consumption prospects were reduced 1 million tons this month to 881 million, mostly because of reduced prospects in the United States and former Soviet Union. Trade was slightly higher as increased U.S. corn and EU barley exports were largely offset by reductions in China and Russia. However, with increased production, global ending stocks were increased 4.5 percent this month to 147 million tons. The global ending- stocks-to-use ratio for coarse grains is now projected to increase slightly in 1999/2000 to 16.8 percent from 16.5 percent forecast for 1998/99. ***************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * * International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released August 13, 1999. * ***************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price --------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr.426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr.883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 4 11,073 444 2,127 450 3,021 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 8 5,707 489 1,097 505 2,091 3,616 2.04 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 20 11,089 1,845 5,575 1,925 9,345 1,744 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr.1,744 9,650 10 11,404 1,910 5,575 1,925 9,410 1,994 1.65-2.05 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.70 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 47 50 106 116 1.72 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 270 190 505 64 1.70 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 64 573 0 637 55 315 200 570 67 1.35-1.75 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price --------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 153 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.90 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 7 69 141 1.84 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 502 170 161 30 361 141 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 141 295 35 471 172 135 30 337 133 1.60-2.00 OATS 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 28 25 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 167 28 269 24 83 0.5 107 162 1.10 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 19 132 28 22 0.6 50 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 167 105 346 95 168 2.0 265 81 1.15 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 81 161 100 344 96 165 2.0 263 80 .90-1.30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1996/97 Sep-Nov 48.0 7.0 0.5 0.4 56.0 -2.1 53.9 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.3 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 1.9 1.1 24.6 9.6 34.2 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.1 3.6 2.6 154.0 7.7 161.6 85.4 1.89 % Change 12.6 74.8 -17.9 1.3 14.8 24.8 15.3 0.6 14.6 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 -0.0 40.5 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.6 Mkt. yr.139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.4 7.3 0.9 14.1 1.5 3.0 -1.4 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.1 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.3 39.7 Mar-May 27.9 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.7 0.6 30.2 Mkt. yr. 141.6 6.9 2.9 2.8 154.2 9.0 163.2 88.5 1.84 % Change 1.3 -26.0 -14.8 -0.8 -0.7 2.8 -0.6 0.6 -1.2 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 141.6 8.0 3.5 2.7 155.8 7.5 163.3 87.0 1.88 % Change 0.0 16.7 18.7 -3.2 1.0 -16.9 0.0 -1.7 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3--Cash feed grain prices --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 Monthly: 1998: Feb 2.58 2.88 4.85 5.07 1.56 NQ 1.59 Mar 2.59 2.89 4.85 5.00 1.51 NQ 1.65 Apr 2.41 2.71 4.62 4.69 1.42 NQ 1.54 May 2.37 2.69 4.60 4.58 NQ NQ 1.58 1999: Feb 2.05 2.40 3.78 4.11 NQ NQ 1.26 Mar 2.09 2.45 3.85 4.16 NQ NQ 1.35 Apr 2.05 2.39 3.78 4.06 NQ NQ 1.36 May 2.03 2.35 3.67 3.94 NQ NQ 1.39 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 Monthly: 1998: Feb 182.10 139.10 76.50 295.00 160.40 118.40 82.50 105.00 Mar 165.30 128.70 69.30 270.50 171.10 107.80 81.00 102.00 Apr 152.75 116.25 64.00 238.10 161.60 87.00 59.25 105.00 May 150.30 105.00 64.60 236.25 158.10 85.50 55.50 107.00 1999: Feb 124.40 101.25 62.50 222.50 131.70 97.00 62.00 82.00 Mar 127.20 106.90 56.00 198.00 124.50 92.00 68.50 82.40 Apr 128.60 110.90 54.25 192.50 128.70 92.00 54.10 85.60 May 127.00 108.75 56.90 201.25 129.60 84.00 41.40 95.70 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.5 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.0 34.8 470.1 Mkt year 555.0 235.0 230.0 540.0 127.0 138.2 1,825.2 1999/00 Mkt year 570.000 240.000 240.000 570.000 129.9 140.000 1889.900 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 4/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 Monthly 1998: Mar 16.09 11.99 30.65 7.75 13.78 Apr 15.74 11.64 30.65 7.25 13.96 May 15.69 11.59 30.65 7.25 13.57 Jun 15.67 11.57 30.65 7.20 13.39 1999: Mar 15.47 11.37 25.68 8.28 11.50 Apr 15.22 11.12 15.75 8.45 11.98 May 2/ 15.18 11.08 16.38 8.45 12.07 Jun 3/ 15.20 11.10 16.38 8.45 11.92 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Revised. 3/ Preliminary. 4/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Jun-April Mkt. yr. Jun-April Jun-April --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,440 1,348 1,282 1,251 1,090 Finland 99 76 161 161 182 Sweden 140 140 176 159 432 Total 1/ 1,680 1,565 1,696 1,647 1,704 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 608 498 733 655 512 Total 1/ 609 498 733 655 512 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 191 175 112 101 78 Total 1/ 192 175 143 101 78 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Sep-April Mkt. yr. Sep-April Sep-April --------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN Japan 14,821 10,325 14,581 10,008 10,058 Taiwan 5,482 3,922 3,801 2,835 2,749 Former USS 184 122 23 22 1 South Africa 81 81 0 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 272 197 336 263 192 EU 1,704 1,180 147 7 191 Egypt 2,292 1,608 1,808 1,166 1,957 Canada 833 672 1,423 902 431 China 53 53 212 53 154 East Europe 385 385 19 19 12 Algeria 869 607 861 605 661 S. Korea 5,369 4,745 3,593 1,917 3,989 Mexico 3,155 2,061 4,116 2,600 3,752 Others 10,081 7,529 7,196 4,842 7,820 Total 45,581 33,488 38,117 25,239 31,968 SORGHUM Mexico 2,111 1,643 3,222 2,338 1,992 Japan 2,102 1,648 1,650 1,555 1,098 Others 948 772 463 420 395 Total 5,161 4,063 5,334 4,312 3,485 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Jun-April Mkt. yr. Jun-April Jun-April BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 88 88 922 922 0 Israel 28 28 0 0 0 Jordan 50 50 53 53 0 Japan 175 175 290 290 392 Mexico 182 169 124 120 88 Taiwan 35 35 94 94 0 Other 220 97 135 132 95 Total 670 643 1,617 1611 575 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE