FEED OUTLOOK September 14, 1999 September 1999, FDS-0999 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on April 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from the USDA Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1999 Corn Production Lowered from Last Month, Prices Strengthened o Sorghum Production Lowered from Last Month, Barley Raised, Oats Unchanged o Food, Seed, and Industrial Use of Corn Down from Last Month, Still Record High o U.S. 1999/2000 Corn Exports Down Because of Increased Competition from China FEED GRAIN SUPPLY LOWERED FROM LAST MONTH, STILL LARGE U.S. feed grain production in 1999 is forecast at 262 million metric tons, down about 5 million from a month ago and down nearly 10 million from 1998. Feed grain supply in 1999/2000 is forecast at 313.3 million tons, down nearly 2 percent from last month, but practically the same as 1998/99. Forecast beginning stocks are down slightly from last month, but still up 29 percent from the previous year. Year over year, increases in supply will slightly exceed gains in use in 1999/2000. Total feed grain use is projected at 262 million tons, down 1.2 million from 1998/99. Domestic use is projected to increase to a new high of 209.4 million tons, bettering the record 207 million expected in 1998/99. Feed and residual use in 1999/2000 is expected to total 155.1 million metric tons and account for 59 percent of total use, the same as last month. On a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is projected to total 163 million tons, down slightly from 1998/99's 164 million. Corn is estimated to account for 87 percent of feed and residual use in 1999/2000, up from 86 percent in 1998/99. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 1999/2000 is nearly the same as 1998/99's 88.5 million units. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 1999/2000 is 1.84 tons, down 1 percent from 1998/99. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy, hogs, and cattle are down and those for poultry are up. Larger broiler production forecast for 2000 led to a slight increase in the GCAU index this month. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWEST SINCE 1995/96 Corn production in 1999 is forecast at 9,381 million bushels, down 180 million from last month's projection and down 4 percent from 1998. Based on 20 years of estimates, changes are 9 out of 10 that the September forecast will be within 9.5 percent or approximately 891 million bushels of the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The average corn yield is forecast at 132.2 bushels per acre, compared with last month's 134.7 bushels and the actual 1998 yield of 134.4 bushels. If realized, this would be the third highest yield ever, trailing last year and the 138.6 bushels per acre in 1994. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record high stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecast of ears per acre is a record, exceeding the previous record in 1998. Ear measurements from sample plots indicate a length equal to last year and the 5-year average. Forecast corn use in 1999/2000 was lowered 1 percent from last month's forecast and 85 million bushels from the estimate for 1998/99. Exports were lowered 75 million bushels from last month because of stronger export competition from China. U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 were increased 2 percent this month to 1,985 million bushels, reflecting stronger export sales and inspections. Corn used in the production of high fructose corn syrup and ethanol was reduced in both 1999/2000 and 1998/99. Shipments in 1998/99 have not been as strong as earlier anticipated. Exports of high fructose sweeteners in September 1998-June 1999 (the latest data) were down 6 percent from the same period a year earlier. Exports to Mexico, a major destination, were up 1 percent in spite of increased tariffs. While corn use for high fructose corn syrup is expected to rise in 1999/2000, the rate of increase was lowered to reflect current conditions. Estimates of corn used to make ethanol in 1998/99 were reduced because output slowed in June and dropped sharply in July after posting double-digit percent monthly increases from a year earlier in February through May. In spite of higher prices for gasoline and MTBE (a competing oxygenate and octane booster), ethanol prices have remained weak because of large stocks. For 1999/2000, ethanol production is expected to increase from last year but not as much as expected last month. With reduced corn supplies in 1999/2000 and lower ending stocks than projected last month, prices were increased. The forecast price for 1999/2000 is $1.75-$2.15 per bushel, up from last month's $1.70-$2.10. In 1998/99, the season average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.95. SORGHUM CROP TO INCREASE IN 1999/2000 Sorghum production in 1999 is forecast at 580 million bushels, down 8 million from the previous projection because of lower expected yields than last month. This production is up nearly 12 percent from 1998's 520 million bushels. Based on 20 years of estimates, chances are 9 out of 10 that the September 1 forecast will be within 12.6 percent or approximately 73 million bushels of the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. Yields in 1999 are forecast at 68.2 bushels per acre, down 1 percent from last month, and up from the 67.3 bushels of 1998. Record high yields are expected in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. With the decrease in forecast production, total supplies are 644 million bushels, down from last month, but up from 1998/99's 569 million. With forecast use unchanged from last month at 580 million bushels, ending stocks are down slightly. In the 1997/98 marketing year, prices received by farmers for sorghum averaged 91 percent of the corn price. Projected prices for 1998/99 are $1.70 per bushel, which would be 87 percent of the expected corn price. The forecast price for sorghum in 1999/2000 is $1.50-$1.90 per bushel, up from $1.40-$1.80 last month, and approximately 86 to 88 percent of the corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION INCREASES Barley production for 1999 is forecast at 283 million bushels, up 1.2 million from a month ago and down 20 percent from 1998. The chances are 9 out of 10 that the September 1 barley production forecast will be within 6.8 percent (approximately 19 million bushels) of the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. Yields are expected to average 58.5 bushels per acre, down 3 percent from last year. Compared to the August forecast, Idaho, Washington, and Wyoming are expecting higher yields. If achieved, the expected yield in Wyoming would equal the record high. Total supplies in 1999/2000 are forecast up from last month but nearly 9 percent below 1998/99. Total barley use in 1999/2000 is forecast unchanged from last month but down 39 million bushels from last year because of a smaller supply and stronger prices. Ending stocks are up 1 million bushels from last month and down 3 percent from 1998/99. Prices received by farmers for barley in 1999/2000 are expected to average $1.80-$2.20 per bushel, up $.10 from last month. With production down in States that tend to produce malting barley, the spread between malting barley and feed barley is expected to be wider than normal. U.S. 1999/2000 CORN EXPORTS DOWN BECAUSE OF INCREASED COMPETITION FROM CHINA Forecast U.S. corn exports for 1999/2000 were reduced by 1.5 million tons to 47 million while the forecast for China increased by the same amount to 5 million. Projected exports by Argentina were also reduced by 0.5 million tons this month. Competition between the largest exporters is expected to be intense, limiting price increases. World corn trade in 1999/2000 is projected to shrink 3.5 percent. The changes to China's corn supply and demand span 2 years. China's larger 1998 corn crop reflects recently reported official estimates. Production for 1998/99 is 133 million tons, 9 million higher than previously forecast by USDA based on a total grain production number of "over 490 million tons." The much larger 1998 production boosted stocks and 1999/2000 supplies, despite a 3-million ton reduction in forecast 1999 production caused by extensive dryness, particularly in parts of the North China Plain. China's corn supplies for 1999/2000 are up 5.4 million tons this month, with beginning stocks up 8.4 million. With so much corn in stocks, and with another harvest about to begin, China is under pressure to move old-crop corn in order to provide storage for the new crop. However, the corn price in China is supported above world price levels, so exports need government subsidies. During most of 1998/99 the world price was low enough that China reduced corn exports because of the high cost of subsidized exports. However, as U.S. corn crop conditions declined this summer, U.S. prices increased. Also, China's internal corn prices declined. With internal Chinese prices lower and world prices increasing, the cost of subsidizing corn exports dropped, and China apparently sold several million tons. Most of these sales are not expected to be shipped before the 1999/2000 marketing year starts in October. China's 1998/99 corn exports increased 0.7 million tons to 3.5 million, compared with the 5 million forecast for 1999/2000. U.S. 1998/99 CORN EXPORT FORECAST UP ON STRONG SHIPMENTS U.S. corn exports in 1998/99 (October/September) are expected to reach 51 million tons, up 1 million from last month, and 35 percent larger than the previous year. According to U.S. Export Sales, local marketing year (September/August) shipments were up 33 percent from a year earlier. According to export sales data, U.S. corn exports in 1998/99 were largest to Japan, up 3 percent at 15 million tons, South Korea up 81 percent to 6 million, Mexico up 35 percent to 5 million, Taiwan up 16 percent to 4 million, and Egypt up 100 percent to 4 million. The U.S. share of world corn trade in 1998/99 is expected to reach 75 percent, up from 60 percent the previous year. Moreover, world corn trade in 1998/99 is expected to rebound 8 percent. World Coarse Grain Supply and Demand Tightening in 1999/2000 This month's reduction in China's corn production and reduced coarse grain production in the United States, India, and the EU, as well as previously projected tightening barley markets, are dropping world coarse grain supplies below the previous year. Lower global coarse grain production more than offsets a 15- million-ton rise in beginning stocks. Global coarse grains consumption is nearly unchanged from 1998/99, but still 9 million tons above production. Foreign coarse grain stocks are expected to decline 11 million tons while U.S. stocks increase. Coarse grain stocks are expected to decline 16 percent in the EU, almost 30 percent in the former Soviet Union, over 35 percent in Eastern Europe, more than 45 percent in the drought-stricken Middle East, and 16 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, price increases are likely to be limited by large and increasing stocks in the United States. ************************************************************* Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released October 13, 1999. ************************************************************* Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 4 11,073 444 2,127 450 3,021 8,052 1.91 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 489 1,103 497 2,090 3,616 2.04 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 20 11,089 1,830 5,575 1,985 9,390 1,699 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr.1,699 9,381 10 11,090 1,880 5,575 1,850 9,305 1,785 1.75-2.15 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.70 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.72 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 270 190 505 64 1.70 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 64 580 0 644 55 325 200 580 64 1.50-1.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 153 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.90 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 13 5 69 141 1.84 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 162 28 361 141 1.98 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 141 283 35 458 172 120 30 322 136 1.80-2.20 OATS 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 28 25 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 167 28 269 24 83 0.5 107 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 28 25 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 167 108 349 95 171 1.7 267 81 1.10 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 81 162 100 343 96 165 2.0 263 80 .90-1.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1996/97 Sep-Nov 48.0 7.0 0.5 0.4 56.0 -2.1 53.9 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.3 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 1.9 1.1 24.6 9.6 34.2 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.1 3.6 2.6 154.0 7.7 161.6 85.3 1.89 % Change 12.6 74.8 -17.9 1.3 14.8 24.8 15.3 0.4 14.8 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.7 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.9 164.2 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.4 7.3 0.9 15.5 1.6 3.0 -1.4 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.0 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.3 39.7 Mar-May 28.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.9 1.0 30.9 Mkt. yr. 141.6 6.9 3.0 2.7 154.2 10.2 164.4 88.5 1.86 % Change 1.3 -26.0 -14.0 -2.4 -0.8 15.2 0.1 0.7 -0.5 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 141.6 8.3 2.8 2.7 155.4 7.5 162.9 88.5 1.84 % Change 0.0 20.4 -4.5 -1.5 0.8 -26.8 -0.9 -0.0 -0.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 Monthly: 1998: Apr 2.41 2.71 4.62 4.69 1.42 NQ 1.54 May 2.37 2.69 4.60 4.58 NQ NQ 1.58 Jun 2.29 2.64 4.65 4.32 NQ NQ 1.52 Jul 2.16 2.55 4.53 4.33 1.23 NQ 1.42 1999: Apr 2.05 2.39 3.78 4.06 NQ NQ 1.36 May 2.03 2.35 3.67 3.94 NQ NQ 1.39 Jun 1.99 2.36 3.61 3.86 NQ NQ 1.34 Jul 1.67 2.12 3.40 3.46 NQ NQ 1.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 Monthly: 1998: Apr 152.75 116.25 64.00 238.10 161.60 87.00 59.25 105.00 May 150.30 105.00 64.60 236.25 158.10 85.50 55.50 107.00 Jun 157.80 126.00 61.90 225.60 161.80 81.00 57.90 96.50 Jul 173.30 145.60 58.75 252.50 171.25 86.00 67.84 93.40 1999: Apr 128.60 110.90 54.25 192.50 128.70 92.00 54.10 85.60 May 127.00 108.75 56.90 201.25 129.60 84.00 41.40 95.70 Jun 131.70 114.50 57.90 209.50 137.10 87.00 45.70 85.00 Jul 125.71 115.00 51.75 241.25 133.75 91.67 39.20 82.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.5 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.0 34.8 470.1 Mkt year 550.0 235.0 230.0 530.0 127.0 138.2 1,810.2 1999/00 Mkt year 565.0 240.0 235.0 550.0 129.9 140.0 1,859.9 Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 4/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 2/ 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 11.56 Monthly 1998: May 15.69 11.59 30.65 7.25 13.57 Jun 15.67 11.57 30.65 7.20 13.39 Jul 15.27 11.27 30.65 7.05 12.88 Aug 14.62 10.52 30.65 7.05 12.67 1999: May 15.18 11.08 16.38 8.45 12.07 Jun 15.20 11.10 16.38 8.45 11.92 Jul 3/ 14.72 10.62 16.38 8.45 11.83 Aug 2/ 15.12 11.27 16.38 8.45 10.84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Revised. 4/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun Mkt. yr. Jun Jun ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,282 107 1,142 30 45 Finland 161 0 216 27 24 Sweden 176 0 443 77 65 Total 1/ 1,696 107 1,856 133 134 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 733 88 567 56 40 Total 1/ 733 88 567 56 40 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 112 20 81 39 2 Total 1/ 143 20 81 39 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Sep-June Mkt. yr. Sep-June Sep-June ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,821 12,555 14,581 12,348 12,438 Taiwan 5,482 4,609 3,801 3,298 3,529 Former USSR 184 140 23 22 245 South Africa 81 81 0 0 58 Sub-Saharan Africa 272 261 336 324 239 EU 1,704 1,555 147 30 191 Egypt 2,292 1,887 1,808 1,290 2,504 Canada 833 780 1,423 1,236 588 China 53 53 212 53 204 East Europe 385 385 19 19 12 Algeria 869 702 861 713 760 S. Korea 5,369 4,993 3,593 2,796 5,052 Mexico 3,155 2,770 4,116 3,388 4,776 Others 10,081 8,716 7,196 5,857 10,201 Total 45,581 39,487 38,117 31,374 40,798 SORGHUM Mexico 2,111 1,916 3,222 2,867 2,487 Japan 2,102 1,809 1,650 1,599 1,197 Others 948 862 463 442 425 Total 5,161 4,587 5,334 4,909 4,109 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun Mkt. yr. Jun Jun BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 922 139 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 53 0 0 0 0 Japan 290 0 422 21 85 Mexico 124 14 94 4 6 Taiwan 94 8 0 0 0 Other 135 2 99 2 4 Total 1,617 162 615 27 95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census. END_OF_FILE