FEED OUTLOOK February 15, 2000 February 2000 FDS-0200 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on April 24, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Total Feed Grain Ending Stocks Increased from Last Month o Feed and Residual Use Up from Last Year o U.S. Export Prospects Reduced by Increased Competition from China o World Coarse Grain Trade and Consumption Up, Stocks Down FEED GRAIN ENDING STOCKS INCREASED FROM LAST MONTH U.S. feed grain ending stocks in 1999/2000 are forecast at 49.4 million metric tons, up 1 percent from a month ago but down 4 percent from 1998/99. Reduced exports of corn and a small decline in feed and residual use of sorghum this month caused this increase. Total feed grain use is projected at 267.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last month and up 3 percent from 1998/99. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE UP FROM LAST YEAR On a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is up 0.3 million metric tons from last month and 5.2 percent from last year. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 1999/2000 is 90 million units, up 1.6 percent from 1998/99. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.86 tons, up 3.6 percent from 1998/99, and nearly the same as the 1.87 tons used in 1997/98. In the index components for 1999/2000, GCAUs for hogs are down and those for dairy, beef, and poultry are up. The January 1, 2000, cattle inventory was down 1 percent from the 99.1 million head on January 1, 1999. However, all cattle and calves on feed were up 6 percent from last year. Helping to explains some of the increase in cattle on feed, the calf crop in 1998 was revised up 230,000 head, while the 1999 calf crop was raised 410,000 head from the midyear estimate. In calendar 2000, beef production is estimated at 25.7 billion pounds, up 3 percent from last month, but down 3 percent from 1999. With more cattle on feed, and beef production expected to increase, feed needs will remain strong. Production of broilers, turkeys, and eggs in 2000 is expected to increase from anticipated 1999 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production is expected to increase 5 percent as producers respond to good export and domestic demand. Turkey producers are expected to increase production 2 percent. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.08 billion dozen eggs, up 2 percent from 1999. Pork production in 2000 is expected to decline 4 percent from last year, and is up 25 million pounds from last month's estimate. In early December, hog farmers indicated they intended to decrease the number of sows farrowing in December 1999-May 2000 by 4 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be weaker in 1999/2000. Dairy cow numbers on January 1 were up 1 from the previous year, and with increased production per cow, milk production in 2000 is expected to total 165.5 billion pounds, up from 162.7 billion in 1999. Thus with increased milk production per cow, feed use by the dairy industry will continue strong. CORN STOCKS PROJECTED AT 1,739 MILLION BUSHELS Because of lower export prospects, the corn export forecast was decreased 25 million bushels this month to 1,950 million, down 2 percent from last year. No other changes were made in corn supplies or use, resulting in an increase in ending stocks. Ending stocks of corn in 1999/2000 are projected to increase 1 percent from last month but decline 3 percent from last year. SORGHUM EXPORTS INCREASE Sorghum exports for 1999/2000 were increased this month because of continued strong exports to Mexico. Projected exports were raised 15 million bushels, up 14 percent from 1998/99. Feed and residual was lowered a corresponding 15 million bushels, and with no change in food, seed, and industrial uses, ending stocks were unchanged. Even with the decrease this month, feed and residual in 1999/2000 is forecast up 24 percent from last year. HAY STOCKS PER RCAU DECREASE, PRICES WEAK As reported last month, hay stocks on December 1 were down 3 percent from a year earlier. In addition, the annual cattle and calves inventory was released since the last report. All cattle and calves numbers on January 1, 2000, were down 1 percent from last year. Recalculated roughage consuming animal units (RCAU's) in 1999/2000 are estimated to be down 2 percent from 1998/99. Hay stocks are 1.48 tons per RCAU, down from 1.5 last year, when stocks per RCAU were 9 percent above the prior year. Midmonth prices for all hay reported by farmers in January 2000 were $71.80 per ton, up from $71.10 in December, and down from $78.50 in January 1999. Prices had been weakening relative to a year earlier, even with the drought in parts of the Great Plains. Prices received for alfalfa hay in January were $74.10 per ton, up from $73.20 in December but down from $81.40 a year earlier. Other hay prices averaged $7.76 per ton below a year earlier during May through January. In January the price of other hay was $65.90 per ton, the same as in December, but down from $70.60 a year earlier. Given current estimates of livestock numbers and hay stocks, prices may remain weak for the remainder of the hay marketing year. PRICE EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED FOR FEED GRAINS The projected price range for corn is narrowed to $1.75-2.05 per bushel. The sorghum price forecast was also narrowed this month to $1.50-1.80 per bushel. Sorghum prices to date have averaged 85 percent of the corn price. The all barley price is forecast at $2.05-2.15 per bushel. In June 1999-January 2000, the simple average of barley farm prices was $2.09 per bushel, up from $1.99 in the same period a year earlier. Malting barley's premium over feed barley has remained wide, averaging 84 cents so far, compared with 83 cents for the same period a year earlier, and the 10-year weighted average of 56 cents. The oats price forecast was unchanged this month at $1.05-1.15 per bushel. Farm prices for oats in June 1999-January 2000 averaged $1.11, down from $1.16 for the same period in 1998/99. LDPs SUPPORT FEED GRAIN FARMERS' INCOME The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. As of February 14, 2000, eligible producers collected $1,892 million in LDP's covering 6,808 million bushels of 1999-crop corn or about 72 percent of the 1999 crop. The average payment rate was 28 cents per bushel on 914,039 contracts. In 1998, 58 percent of the corn produced received an LDP. Sorghum producers have collected $145 million in LDPs on their 1999 crop, covering 474 million bushels or about 80 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 31 cents per bushel on 116,682 contracts. In 1998, 67 percent of the sorghum crop received an LDP. For barley, producers have collected almost $36 million in LDPs covering 194 million bushels or about 69 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 18 cents per bushel on 39,306 contracts. In 1998, 73 percent of the barley crop received an LDP. Oats producers have collected $27 million in LDPs covering 117 million bushels or about 80 percent of the 1999 crop. The average payment rate was 23 cents per bushel on 58,976 contracts. In 1998, 63 percent of the oats crop received an LDP. U.S. EXPORT PROSPECTS REDUCED BY INCREASED COMPETITION FROM CHINA Forecast U.S. October 1999-September 2000 corn exports were reduced by 1 million tons to 48 million, while exports by China were boosted 3 million to 8 million. China's export forecast increased because of stronger-than-expected sales and shipments. In December China exported 1.4 million tons of corn, and although that pace is not expected to continue, China reportedly has made large sales for shipment in coming months. China can easily increase corn exports because carryin stocks were huge and 1999 production, at 128 million tons, was 8 million tons larger than forecast consumption. Internal prices are still higher than world prices, so the exports require a government subsidy, but recent increases in U.S. corn prices have reduced the subsidy required. Even with sharply higher forecast exports this month, China's ending stocks are not expected to decline in 1999/2000. According to U.S. Export Sales, U.S. corn shipments through February 3 (basically the first 5 months of the local September/August marketing year) were up 11 percent from a year earlier. However, exports in September 1999 were unusually large, so the increase for the October/September international marketing year is less. Moreover, as of early February outstanding sales were down 8 percent from a year earlier, foreshadowing a slowdown in U.S. export shipments in the latter half of 1999/2000. U.S. shipments to countries where China is most competitive, such as South Korea and Malaysia, are already down from a year ago. WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE AND CONSUMPTION UP, STOCKS DOWN China and U.S. corn export prospects in 1999/2000 are supported by increased import demand forecast this month. Global corn trade was boosted by 1.6 million tons, with stronger imports expected for Egypt, Taiwan, Philippines, and Russia, based on the strong pace of purchases. Moreover, South Korea's corn imports were boosted to a record 9 million tons, partly because of reduced imports of feed wheat, but also because feed demand has rebounded. Forecast world trade for barley and sorghum also increased this month. The EU is expected to export barley at a record pace as drought in the Middle East has boosted demand for feed barley even though prices are significantly higher than for corn. U.S. sorghum shipments to Mexico have also exceeded expectations as the issuance of corn import licenses in calendar 2000 has been sluggish. Global 1999/2000 coarse grain trade is up 2 million tons this month to 98 million, the highest in a decade. Coarse grain trade in 1999/2000 is now also forecast 2 million tons higher than a year earlier. Forecast 1999/2000 coarse grain consumption is up 3 million tons this month to 881 million, up 1 percent from the previous year. This global growth rate is less than the rate of population growth, but is a rebound from the drop estimated a year earlier, and in keeping with a gradual recovery in foreign macroeconomic growth. With increased consumption and trade, world coarse grain ending stocks are forecast lower this month, at 148 million tons. The decline would have been larger, except that a historical revision of EU stocks increased both carryin and carryout stocks for the region by about 2 million tons. Although 1999/2000 global coarse grain stocks are forecast down 5 percent from last year, they remain well above the levels of the previous 5 years. ***************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released March 14, 2000. ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,759 4 11,071 444 2,125 450 3,019 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 489 1,103 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 462 801 568 1,831 1,787 1.84 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,759 19 11,085 1,822 5,496 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,437 4 11,228 453 2,221 534 3,208 8,020 1.70 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,437 15 11,239 1,900 5,650 1,950 9,500 1,739 1.75-2.05 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.70 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.72 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.61 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 229 65 312 349 1.46 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 325 225 605 55 1.50-1.80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.90 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.84 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 282 6 429 44 81 9 134 295 2.12 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 23 10 72 229 2.05 Mkt. yr. 142 282 25 449 172 125 30 327 122 2.05-2.15 OATS 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 28 25 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 24 82 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 28 25 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 95 170 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 24 77 0.6 101 148 1.06 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 23 23 0.3 46 136 1.08 Mkt. yr. 81 146 100 328 96 150 2.0 248 80 1.05-1.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.6 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.6 7.3 0.9 14.5 1.5 3.1 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.0 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.3 39.7 Mar-May 28.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.9 0.9 30.8 Jun-Aug 20.3 0.1 1.8 1.2 23.4 7.6 31.0 Mkt. yr. 139.6 6.7 3.1 2.7 152.0 6.8 158.8 88.6 1.79 % Change -0.2 -28.2 -10.5 -4.4 -2.1 -22.5 -3.2 0.7 -3.9 1999/00 Sep-Nov 56.4 5.8 0.5 0.4 63.2 0.1 63.2 Mkt. yr. 143.5 8.3 2.8 2.4 157.0 10.1 167.1 90.0 1.86 % Change 2.8 24.0 -8.7 -8.0 3.3 48.2 5.2 1.6 3.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 3/ 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 Monthly: 1998: Sep 1.78 2.18 4.81 3.84 NQ NQ 1.30 Oct 1.94 2.43 4.91 4.00 NQ NQ 1.29 Nov 2.09 2.47 4.91 4.15 NQ NQ 1.32 Dec 2.08 2.42 4.82 4.12 NQ NQ 1.31 1999: Sep 1.81 2.21 3.39 3.64 NQ NQ 1.17 Oct 1.72 2.17 3.30 3.55 NQ NQ 1.20 Nov 1.82 2.17 3.33 3.59 NQ NQ 1.20 Dec 1.84 2.21 3.36 3.66 NQ NQ 1.28 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.72 137.32 85.77 54.74 91.00 Monthly: 1998: Sep 126.90 115.60 51.50 210.00 133.40 NQ 43.90 87.10 Oct 129.40 106.50 56.90 227.50 141.30 75.00 49.00 86.90 Nov 139.30 107.90 66.10 313.10 154.00 74.00 60.00 84.40 Dec 139.60 119.75 74.40 291.50 151.20 78.00 68.10 81.40 1999: Sep 144.06 111.92 55.50 258.13 142.21 88.00 57.64 77.30 Oct 147.19 111.83 58.38 265.00 150.17 88.00 54.83 76.00 Nov 148.10 112.00 62.80 250.00 159.72 88.00 52.90 77.30 Dec 145.40 124.20 59.00 234.40 156.70 88.00 62.80 73.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.6 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.1 34.8 470.1 Jun-Aug 155.4 61.6 58.2 121.8 29.4 34.8 461.2 Mkt year 549.3 234.1 227.8 525.8 127.1 138.2 1,802.2 1999/00 Sep-Nov 133.7 60.6 60.4 131.7 31.9 34.8 453.2 Mkt year 575.0 240.0 240.0 555.0 130.5 140.0 1,880.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 2/ 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 Monthly 1998/99: Oct 14.89 10.99 30.65 7.40 11.71 Nov 15.07 10.97 30.65 7.65 12.10 Dec 14.91 10.81 30.65 7.83 12.10 Jan 15.13 11.03 30.65 7.95 11.95 1999/2000: Oct 14.89 10.79 16.38 9.25 11.89 Nov 14.42 10.32 16.38 9.25 11.65 Dec 14.57 10.47 16.38 9.25 11.83 Jan 2/ 15.08 10.98 16.38 9.25 11.86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun - Nov Mkt. yr. Jun - Nov Jun - Nov ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,282 910 1,142 770 732 Finland 161 51 216 111 75 Sweden 176 22 443 212 154 Total 1/ 1,696 983 1,856 1,094 961 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 733 362 567 247 225 Total 1/ 733 362 567 247 225 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 112 68 81 66 15 Total 1/ 143 68 81 66 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Nov. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Nov. Sept.-Nov. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,581 3,913 15,110 3,480 3,773 S. Korea 3,593 602 6,462 1,326 1,298 Mexico 4,116 647 5,387 1,281 1,248 Taiwan 3,801 1,151 4,365 1,118 1,386 Egypt 1,808 572 3,159 770 577 Colombia 1,175 290 1,512 360 462 Venezuela 655 178 1,288 289 221 Saudi Arabia 971 375 1,182 312 380 Algeria 861 263 955 231 244 Canada 1,423 385 867 251 310 Dominican Republic 644 147 777 132 214 Turkey 379 86 692 65 0 Peru 253 53 674 156 229 Morocco 350 83 592 75 76 Chile 147 72 486 167 194 Former USSR 23 22 405 0 83 China 212 0 204 154 58 South Africa 0 0 143 0 111 Other Sub-Saharan 336 32 298 68 41 EU 147 3 192 129 2 East Europe 19 19 12 0 35 Others 2,623 732 5,464 1,047 2,588 Total 38,117 9,628 50,228 11,412 13,532 SORGHUM Mexico 3,222 473 3,103 573 1,215 Japan 1,650 700 1,362 380 370 Others 463 73 433 35 59 Total 5,334 1,246 4,899 988 1,645 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun-Nov Mkt. yr. Jun-Nov Jun-Nov BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 922 908 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 53 53 0 0 0 Japan 290 211 422 237 267 Mexico 124 68 94 50 65 Taiwan 94 60 0 0 5 Other 135 76 99 64 70 Total 1,617 1376 615 351 407 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE