FEED OUTLOOK March 14, 2000 March 2000 FDS-0300 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 will be released on April 24, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Barley Imports Raised from Last Month o Price Range Narrowed for Corn and Sorghum o Forecast World Coarse Grain Production and Stocks Reduced Slightly FEED GRAIN ENDING STOCKS INCREASED FROM LAST MONTH U.S. feed grain ending stocks in 1999/2000 are forecast at 49.5 million metric tons, up marginally from a month ago but down 4 percent from 1998/99. A forecast increase in imports of barley this month caused this change. Total feed grain supply is projected at 317.2 million tons, up fractionally from last month and up nearly 2 percent from 1998/99. Total use is unchanged from last month and up 3 percent from last year. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE UP FROM LAST YEAR On a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is unchanged from last month and up 5.2 percent from last year. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 1999/2000 is 90 million units, up 1.6 percent from 1998/99. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.86 tons, up 3.6 percent from 1998/99, and nearly the same as the 1.87 tons used in 1997/98. In the index components, GCAUs for hogs are down and those for dairy, beef, and poultry are up. On February 1, 2000, cattle on feed in the historic 7 States were up 11 percent from 1999. Placements increased 15 percent during January from last year, while marketings were up 1 percent and other disappearance was down 1 percent. This was the sixth consecutive month that placements exceeded a year earlier, although feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on January 1 were down 5 percent. In calendar 2000, beef production is estimated at 26 billion pounds, up 2 percent from last month's forecast, but down 1 percent from 1999. With more cattle on feed and beef production expected to increase, feed needs will remain strong until fall. Production of broilers, turkeys, and eggs in 2000 is expected to increase from anticipated 1999 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production is expected to rise 5 percent as producers respond to good export and domestic demand. Turkey producers are expected to increase production 1 percent. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.06 billion dozen eggs, up 2 percent from 1999. Pork production in 2000 is expected to decline 3 percent from last year, but is up 50 million pounds from last month's estimate. In early December, hog farmers indicated they intended to decrease the number of sows farrowing in December 1999-May 2000 by 4 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be weaker in 1999/2000. Milk production in 2000 is expected to total 166 billion pounds, up 0.5 billion from last month and up from 162.7 billion in 1999. Thus with increased milk production, feed use by the dairy industry will continue strong. CORN ESTIMATES UNCHANGED THIS MONTH Total supples of corn in 1999/2000 are forecast at 11 billion bushels, unchanged from last month and up 1 percent from last year. Total use is also unchanged from last month at 9.5 billion bushels, but up 2 percent from last year. BARLEY IMPORTS INCREASE THIS MONTH Barley imports are forecast up 5 million bushels from last month, and even with last year. Total supply is now estimated at 454 million bushels, up 1 percent from last month, but down 9 percent from last year. Total use is unchanged from last month, with the additional supply boosting ending stocks. However, ending stocks in 1999/2000 are still expected to be down 11 percent from 1998/99. PRICE RANGES NARROWED FOR CORN AND SORGHUM The projected price range for corn is narrowed to $1.85-1.95 per bushel. The sorghum price forecast was also narrowed this month to $1.55-1.65 per bushel. Sorghum prices to date have averaged 85 percent of the corn price. The all barley price is forecast at $2.05-2.15 per bushel, unchanged from last month. In June 1999-February 2000, the simple average of barley farm prices was $2.08 per bushel, up from $1.98 in the same period a year earlier. Malting barley's premium over feed barley has remained wide, averaging 82 cents so far, compared with 81 cents for the same period a year earlier, and the 10-year weighted average of 56 cents. The oats price forecast was unchanged this month at $1.05-1.15 per bushel. Farm prices for oats in June 1999-February 2000 averaged $1.13, down from $1.16 for the same period in 1998/99. LDPs SUPPORT FEED GRAIN FARMERS' INCOME The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. As of March 13, 2000, eligible producers collected $1,960 million in LDP's covering 7,121 million bushels of 1999-crop corn or the equivalent of 75 percent of the 1999 crop. The average payment rate was 28 cents per bushel on 964,082 contracts. In 1998, 58 percent of the corn produced received an LDP. Sorghum producers have collected $147 million in LDPs on their 1999 crop, covering 486 million bushels or the equivalent of 82 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 30 cents per bushel on 120,202 contracts. In 1998, 67 percent of the sorghum crop received an LDP. For barley, producers have collected $36 million in LDPs covering 199 million bushels or the equivalent of 70 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 18 cents per bushel on 40,685 contracts. In 1998, 74 percent of the barley crop received an LDP. Oats producers have collected $28 million in LDPs covering 120 million bushels or the equivalent of 82 percent of the 1999 crop. The average payment rate was 23 cents per bushel on 60,481 contracts. In 1998, 63 percent of the oats crop received an LDP. FORECAST WORLD COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION AND STOCKS REDUCED SLIGHTLY Global coarse grain production in 1999/2000 is expected to reach 873 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month's forecast. An increase in South Africa's corn production of 0.5 million tons, and an increase of 0.3 million in Peru were more than offset by reductions of 0.8 million for Sudan's sorghum, 0.1 million for Mozambique's corn, 0.3 million for Australian barley and oats, and 0.1 million for EU barley. Forecast world coarse grain consumption declined slightly this month, while exports increased a bit. Australia is expected to feed less barley and more low quality wheat, allowing larger exportable barley supplies despite a low barley production forecast. World coarse grain ending stocks were revised down 0.5 million tons this month, mostly because of lower sorghum production in Sudan. World 1999/2000 corn balances were almost unchanged this month: forecast consumption remains just larger than production, resulting in a small reduction in stocks. This month's increased corn production in South Africa is expected to boost consumption there. Peru's imports were reduced 200,000 tons because of increased production and the slow pace of purchases, but that was mostly offset by even smaller increases in imports by India and the Philippines. U.S. BARLEY IMPORT FORECAST BOOSTED The 1999/2000 U.S. barley import forecast was raised this month because of the stronger-than-expected pace of shipments from Canada. Shipments of malting barley have been stronger than expected. Imports in the local June/May marketing year were boosted 5 million bushels to 30 million, matching the previous year. The international October/September marketing year forecast was increased by 100,000 tons to 700,000, up more than 100,000 from the previous year. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694- 5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released May 16, 2000. **************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,759 4 11,071 444 2,125 450 3,019 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 489 1,103 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 462 801 568 1,831 1,787 1.80 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,759 19 11,085 1,822 5,496 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,437 4 11,228 453 2,221 534 3,208 8,020 1.71 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,437 15 11,239 1,900 5,650 1,950 9,500 1,739 1.85-1.95 SORGHUM 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.67 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.69 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.73 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.60 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 229 65 312 349 1.45 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 325 225 605 55 1.55-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.03 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.89 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.85 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 282 6 429 44 81 9 134 295 2.13 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 23 10 72 229 2.04 Mkt. yr. 142 282 30 454 172 125 30 327 127 2.05-2.15 OATS 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 24 82 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 28 25 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 95 170 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 24 77 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 23 23 0.3 46 136 1.08 Mkt. yr. 81 146 100 328 96 150 2.0 248 80 1.05-1.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.6 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.6 7.3 0.9 14.5 1.5 3.1 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.0 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.3 39.7 Mar-May 28.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.9 0.9 30.8 Jun-Aug 20.3 0.1 1.8 1.2 23.4 7.6 31.0 Mkt. yr. 139.6 6.7 3.1 2.7 152.0 6.8 158.8 88.6 1.79 % Change -0.2 -28.2 -10.5 -4.4 -2.1 -22.5 -3.2 0.7 -3.9 1999/00 Sep-Nov 56.4 5.8 0.5 0.4 63.2 0.1 63.2 Mkt. yr. 143.5 8.3 2.8 2.4 157.0 10.1 167.1 90.0 1.86 % Change 2.8 24.0 -8.7 -8.0 3.3 48.2 5.2 1.6 3.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 3/ 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 Monthly: 1998/1999: Oct 1.94 2.43 4.91 4.00 NQ NQ 1.29 Nov 2.09 2.47 4.91 4.15 NQ NQ 1.32 Dec 2.08 2.42 4.82 4.12 NQ NQ 1.31 Jan 2.07 2.48 4.88 4.13 NQ NQ 1.33 1999/2000: Oct 1.72 2.17 3.30 3.55 NQ NQ 1.20 Nov 1.82 2.17 3.33 3.59 NQ NQ 1.20 Dec 1.84 2.21 3.36 3.66 NQ NQ 1.28 Jan 3/ 1.95 2.36 3.54 4.01 NQ NQ 1.21 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.72 137.32 85.77 54.74 91.00 Monthly: 1998/1999: Oct 129.40 106.50 56.90 227.50 141.30 75.00 49.00 86.90 Nov 139.30 107.90 66.10 313.10 154.00 74.00 60.00 84.40 Dec 139.60 119.75 74.40 291.50 151.20 78.00 68.10 81.40 Jan 131.00 110.60 75.90 257.50 143.00 87.00 80.10 81.40 1999/2000: Oct 147.19 111.83 58.38 265.00 150.17 88.00 54.83 76.00 Nov 148.10 112.00 62.80 250.00 159.72 88.00 52.90 77.30 Dec 145.40 124.20 59.00 234.40 156.70 88.00 62.80 73.20 Jan 3/ 154.96 126.88 55.50 238.75 156.89 85.00 56.13 74.10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.6 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.1 34.8 470.1 Jun-Aug 155.4 61.6 58.2 121.8 29.4 34.8 461.2 Mkt year 549.3 234.1 227.8 525.8 127.1 138.2 1,802.2 1999/00 Sep-Nov 133.7 60.6 60.4 131.7 31.9 34.8 453.2 Mkt year 575.0 240.0 240.0 555.0 130.5 140.0 1,880.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 2/ 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 Monthly 1998/1999: Nov 15.07 10.97 30.65 7.65 12.10 Dec 14.91 10.81 30.65 7.83 12.10 Jan 15.13 11.03 30.65 7.95 11.95 Feb 15.24 11.14 30.65 7.95 12.01 1999/2000: Nov 14.42 10.32 16.38 9.25 11.65 Dec 14.57 10.47 16.38 9.25 11.83 Jan 15.12 11.02 16.38 9.25 11.98 Feb 2/ 15.17 11.07 16.38 9.25 12.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun - Dec Mkt. yr. Jun - Dec Jun - Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,282 1,017 1,142 838 832 Finland 161 76 216 130 75 Sweden 176 87 443 288 174 Total 1/ 1,696 1,209 1,856 1,257 1,081 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 733 450 567 308 338 Total 1/ 733 450 567 308 338 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 112 71 81 67 18 Total 1/ 143 72 81 67 18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Dec. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Dec. Sept.-Dec. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,581 5,311 15,110 4,946 4,830 S. Korea 3,593 789 6,462 1,853 1,436 Mexico 4,116 841 5,387 1,971 1,636 Taiwan 3,801 1,761 4,365 1,467 1,833 Egypt 1,808 731 3,159 961 895 Colombia 1,175 414 1,512 501 574 Venezuela 655 247 1,288 478 299 Saudi Arabia 971 421 1,182 449 441 Algeria 861 368 955 367 332 Canada 1,423 557 867 301 403 Dominican Republic 644 228 777 185 300 Turkey 379 86 692 65 101 Peru 253 86 674 262 270 Morocco 350 133 592 183 114 Chile 147 93 486 248 324 Former USSR 23 22 405 0 83 China 212 0 204 154 58 South Africa 0 0 143 0 216 Other Sub-Saharan 336 61 298 75 74 EU 147 6 192 185 5 East Europe 19 19 12 0 35 Others 2,623 1,023 5,464 1,542 3,483 Total 38,117 13,196 50,228 16,195 17,741 SORGHUM Mexico 3,222 801 3,103 785 1,709 Japan 1,650 938 1,362 561 490 Others 463 94 433 59 97 Total 5,334 1,833 4,899 1,405 2,297 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun-Dec Mkt. yr. Jun-Dec Jun-Dec BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 922 922 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 53 53 0 0 0 Japan 290 232 422 258 308 Mexico 124 80 94 58 74 Taiwan 94 60 0 0 5 Other 135 91 99 66 72 Total 1,617 1437 615 381 459 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE