FEED OUTLOOK July 13, 2001 July 2001 FDS-0701 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831, issues FEED OUTLOOK 11 times a year. Electronic release only, no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on April 25, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2001, $21. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Two National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports shaped the outlook for July, the Acreage report released at the end of June and the Crop Production report which supplied the first survey data on production of barley and oats. Acreage of corn, barley and oats decreased from earlier reported intentions to plant, while sorghum acres increased. For corn, the change in acreage harvested resulted in an 80-million-bushel decline in production based on trend yields. Barley and oats continue their decline in acreage planted. In addition, forecast barley and oats yields are down 2.7 and 3.7 bushels respectively. The barley production forecast would be the lowest since 1953, and oats is the lowest on record. Global 2001/02 coarse grain stocks are forecast down this month because lower production and beginning stocks more than offset reduced expected use. Reduced production prospects in Canada and the European Union (EU) offset improved prospects for Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. SMALLER PLANTED ACREAGE CONTRACTS 2001/02 FEED GRAIN SUPPLY U.S. feed grain production in 2001 is projected at 264 million metric tons, down 2 million from a month ago and 10 million from 2000. The June 30 Acreage report showed planted acres decreased from earlier intentions for corn, barley, and oats, while sorghum acres increased. The first survey-based production forecast for barley was down 31 million bushels from the previous projection, which was based on trend yields and expected plantings. USDA will make its first survey-based forecasts for corn and sorghum in August. Feed grain supply in 2001/02 is projected at 324 million tons, down 2 million from last month, and 2000/01. Lower 2001 production, especially corn, have led to the decreased supply this month. Beginning feed grain stocks for 2001/02 were nearly unchanged from last month but up 8 million metric tons to 56 million from a year earlier. For 2001/02, total use was lowered slightly from last month, but still up 1 percent from 2000/01. Forecasted 2001/02 exports were lowered slightly from last month but up 4 million tons from 2000/01. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 51 million tons, down 1 million from last month and 5 million from 2000/01. Prices are expected to strengthen slightly in 2001/02, given the projected decrease in supply and slight gain in use. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE IN 2001/02 TO INCREASE Feed and residual use in 2001/02 is expected to total 157 million metric tons and account for 58 percent of total use. When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 163.6 million tons, down slightly from 2000/01's 165.4 million. Corn is estimated to account for 89 percent of the feed and residual use, down from 90 percent in 2000/01. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2001/02 is expected to be down 1.5 million units from 2000/01's 89.4 million units. The grain used per GCAU would be 1.86 tons, up 1 percent from 2000/01. In the index components, GCAUs for dairy and cattle on feed are down, while those for hogs and poultry are up. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on June 1 were up 2 percent from a year earlier. Placements were up 3 percent from a year earlier. Poor forage conditions have forced large numbers of lightweight cattle into feedlots, and current feed use by cattle feedlots is stronger than last year. Recent calf crops would suggest placements should be declining. The cow herd has been declining since 1996. Heifer slaughter and heifers on feed remain near record large, suggesting fewer heifers being kept for replacements. Heifers kept for herd replacement in second-half 2001 are expected to increase from current low levels and reduce the number of cattle on feed. As a result, cattle on feed numbers in 2001/02 are expected to be down from 2000/01, and feed needs weaker. Pork production in 2002 is expected to increase 3 percent from the 19 billion pounds expected in 2001, which is up almost 1 percent from 2000. Hog farmers responding to the June 2001 survey indicated that they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing in June-November 2001 by 2 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be higher in 2001/02. Broiler and egg production in 2002 are expected to increase from the expected 2001 levels and continue strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 2002 is expected to increase 2 percent from 2001. Turkey production is expected to total 5.7 billion pounds, up 2 percent from 2001. In 2001, turkey producers are expected to increase production by 3 percent from a year earlier. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.3 billion dozen eggs in 2002, up almost 2 percent from the expected 2001 output. CORN CROP PROJECTED AT 9 BILLION BUSHELS The projection for 2001 corn production was decreased 1 percent from last month because of a 1-percent decline in the estimate of harvested acres. As of July 9, 69 percent of the corn crop was rated good or excellent, down from 74 percent last year. However, as usual, the crop could move either way, depending on conditions in the next month. Projected corn use is down 5 million bushels from last month=s projection but up 95 million bushels from the estimate for 2000/01. With a decreased supply this month and small change in use, ending stocks were lowered 65 million bushels. Lower projected U.S. corn exports are due to increased competition from South Africa. With decreased corn supplies in 2001/02 and ending stocks projected down from last month, prices were increased this month. The projected price for 2001/02 is $1.75-$2.15 per bushel, up from last month=s estimate of $1.70-$2.10. In 2000/01, the season-average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.80-$1.90. FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN IN 2001/02 TO INCREASE Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 2001/02 is expected to total 2,035 million bushels, down 5 million from last month because of a reduction in starch use. In 2000/01, FSI use is expected to total 1,965 million bushels, down 5 million from last month because of a 5-million-bushel reduction in high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) use, and a 5-million bushel reduction in starch use, but a 5-million bushel increase in ethanol use. In 2001/02, FSI use, if realized, would represent 21 percent of total use, up 1 percent from the previous 2 years. FSI use in 2001/02 is expected to increase for all estimated uses, but corn used to produce ethanol shows the largest increase. Based on the monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy, corn used to make ethanol in 2000/01 was estimated up nearly 10 percent from the 566 million bushels used in 1999/2000. In 2001/02, corn used to produce ethanol is unchanged from last month and is expected to increase 7 percent from the anticipated 620 million bushels used in 2000/01. Gasoline prices have been strong and have raised demand for ethanol for blending both for octane and to replace MTBE. Thus, alcohol use is expected to continue strong during the remainder of 2000/01 and into 2001/02. The request by the State of California for a waiver of the oxygenate requirement was denied. If MTBE s banned in 2003 as is currently required by Executive order, ethanol demand will rise sharply. Several new plants are currently being built or planned but these will primarily impact 2002/03 corn use. Corn used for HFCS production in September 2000-May 2001 was down 1.4 million bushels from the same period in 1999/2000. Since HFCS is used in soft drinks, the June-August quarter is usually the strongest and yearly production is expected to be up 1 percent. Although HFCS production was reduced this month, in 2001/02, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 2 percent from the 545 million bushels used in 2000/01. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose during September 2000-May 2001 was down 800,000 bushels from the same period a year earlier and is expected to be down 1 percent for the year-over-year total. In the first three quarters of the 2000/01 corn marketing year, corn used for starch production has been down 1 percent from the same period in 1999/2000. For all of 2000/01, corn used to make starch is expected to decrease 1.1 million bushels from 1999/2000. SORGHUM PRODUCTION UP, OATS AND BARLEY DOWN Sorghum production in 2001 is projected at 615 million bushels, up 40 million from a month ago because of more harvested acres. Sorghum plantings are estimated at 9.7 million acres, up 379,000 from the March intentions. However, harvested area is forecast at 8.9 million acres, up 560,000 from last month=s projection, which was based on March planting intentions and a 3-year average difference between planted and harvested acres. Sorghum supplies in 2001/02 are expected to increase from last month because of increased production, which offset lower forecast beginning stocks. For 2001/02, feed and residual use was lowered this month because of continuing strong export demand. Exports were raised 20 million bushels this month, because of forecasted continued strong demand from Mexico. Feed use was lowered 10 million bushels to accommodate the stronger exports. The lower feed use and increased supplies resulted in larger expected ending stocks for 2001/02. In the 2000/01 marketing year, monthly prices received by farmers for sorghum have averaged 97 percent of the corn price, up from the 89 percent in 1999/2000. Projected prices for 2000/01 are $1.75-$1.85 per bushel. The forecast price for sorghum in 2001/02 is $1.60-$2.00, approximately 92 percent of the corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION DECLINES The first survey-based forecast of 2001 barley production is 264 million bushels, down 31 million from the previous projection and 54 million lower than the 2000 crop. Planted area declined 233,000 acres from earlier intentions to 5.1 million, and was down 756,000 acres from 2000. Harvested acres are estimated at 4.5 million, also down from last year. Average barley yields are forecast at 58.4 bushels per acre, down from last month's trend-based projection of 61.8 bushels. The combination of lower expected yields and a decrease in harvested acres has reduced production to its lowest level since 1953. Reduced barley supplies because of the lower production but slightly larger reported beginning stocks is expected to lower feed and residual use in 2001/02. Feed and residual use was lowered 25 million bushels this month to 100 million bushels. In 2000/01, feed and residual use was 121 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial use of barley, primarily for beer production, is unchanged from last month and last year. Exports are expected to decline from last year and are unchanged from last month. Prices received by farmers for barley in 2001/02 are expecte to average $2.00-$2.40 per bushel vs. the expected $2.15 in 2000/01. The spread between malting barley and feed barley is expected to remain wide in 2001/02. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS Oats production is forecast at 132 million bushels in 2001 according to the first survey results, down 2 million from the initial projection, and down 11 percent from 2000. Planted acres are down 21,000 acres from the March intentions, and harvested acres are down 18,000 from intentions. Compared with 2000, planted acres are down 73,000. Yields are forecast at 60.5 bushels per acre, down .1 bushel from the trend yield used last month and down 6 percent from 2000. Reported ending stocks for 2000/01 were 8 million bushels below last month=s forecast. Thus, reported beginning stocks for 2001/02 are down from last month and with smaller production, total supplies are down. With total use of oats unchanged from last month, ending stocks are reduced. Prices received by farmers in 2001/02 are expected to average between $0.95 and $1.35 per bushel, compared with the $1.10 expected in 2000/01. The projected price is about the same ratio to the corn price as in 2000/01. HAY HARVESTED ACREAGE INCREASES The acreage farmers reported they intend to harvest for hay in 2001 was up 62,000 acres from the March intentions report and up 7 percent from the 60 million harvested in 2000. This is the largest harvested acreage of all hay since 1988. Acreage harvested of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures will be up 3 percent from 2000, and harvested acres of all other hay will be up 9 percent. The biggest increases in hay acreage from last year are in Texas (1.3 million acres) and Kansas (500,000). U.S. 2000/01 CORN EXPORT FORECAST DROPPED BECAUSE OF SLUGGISH PACE Forecast U.S. corn exports in 2000/01 were reduced this month by 1.5 million tons to 45 million tons (October/September international marketing year) and by 25 million bushels to 1,825 million bushels (September/August local marketing year). According to U.S. Export Sales, through June 28, corn shipments were lagging the previous year by more than 7 percent. However, outstanding sales were up slightly, and the 1,825-million-bushel forecast is down less than 6 percent from the previous year. Corn exports by Brazil and Argentina have been stronger than previously expected, boosting Brazil=s export forecast by 1.0 million tons to 3.0 million and increasing Argentina=s by 0.5 million to 13.0 million. South Korean starch manufacturers reportedly paid significant premiums to switch the origins of shipments from the United States in order to avoid starlink corn. Additional changes to the 2000/01 world coarse grain supply and demand reduced supply more than use, lowering forecast ending stocks. Estimated beginning stocks were reduced 5 million tons, mostly because of revisions to Eastern Europe. Also, EU beginning stocks dropped more than 1 million tons. Production estimates were reduced for Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and the EU, dropping global coarse grain production by more than 1 million tons. Reduced supplies contributed to a drop in forecast use of over 3 million tons, but the decline in use was only about half the reduction in supplies, so 2000/01 ending stocks declined by nearly 3 million tons. Estimated 2000/01 global exports were virtually unchanged. WORLD COARSE GRAIN STOCKS TO DECLINE IN 2001/02 This month=s changes to projected 2001/02 global coarse grain supply and demand reduced ending stocks prospects. Beginning stocks and production were reduced about 3 million tons each. Lower than expected area planted to coarse grains was reported for Canada, the EU, and Argentina, as well as for the United States. Lower forecast supplies and sluggish economic growth contributed to reduce expected global use by about 3 million tons this month, leaving projected ending stocks down almost 3 million. World coarse grain stocks are expected to decline by almost 15 million tons in 2001/02, the third straight year of reduced stocks. World coarse grain trade is expected to decline 2 percent in 2001/02. Brazil and Canada are expected to reduce imports because of increased production. Moreover, three of the four largest coarse grain importers, Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia are mature, declining markets. Japan=s economic problems and increasing meat imports are reducing feed demand. South Korea also is increasing meat imports and is expected to import more feed wheat and less coarse grains in 2001/02. Saudi Arabia=s feed demand is weak because of disease problems. Among the largest importers, only Mexico is expected to post solid import growth. This month=s adjustments reduced projected 2001/02 coarse grain trade to 98 million tons, down almost 1 million. China=s corn exports dropped 1.0 million tons to only 2.0 million because of expected high domestic prices. EU barley exports were reduced 0.5 million tons to 8.0 million as reduced production prospects are expected to lead to high internal prices. U.S. sorghum exports increased 0.5 million to 6.3 million because of continued strong imports by Mexico. A larger perspective corn crop and smaller barley crop in Canada increased corn export prospects, reduced corn imports, and cut barley exports. Australia is expected to boost barley exports because of less competition from Canada. Saudi Arabia=s forecast barley imports were reduced 0.5 million tons because of expected continued slow feed demand. ***************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * * International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released August 14, 2001. * ***************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,431 4 11,221 459 2,189 534 3,182 8,039 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,039 --- 3 8,043 447 1,526 468 2,441 5,602 1.91 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,059 451 2,021 3,586 2.05 Jun-Aug 3,586 --- 2 3,588 496 890 485 1,871 1,718 1.64 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,431 15 11,232 1,913 5,664 1,937 9,515 1,718 1.82 2000/01 Sep-Nov 1,718 9,968 1 11,687 465 2,194 506 3,165 8,522 1.76 Dec-Feb 8,522 --- 1 8,523 464 1,600 416 2,480 6,043 1.97 Mar-May 6,043 --- 4 6,046 523 1,144 455 2,122 3,924 1.90 Mkt. yr.1,718 9,968 7 11,693 1,965 5,850 1,825 9,640 2,053 1.80-1.90 2001/02 Mkt. yr.2,053 9,495 15 11,563 2,035 5,725 1,975 9,735 1,828 1.75-2.15 SORGHUM 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 228 65 311 349 1.45 Dec-Feb 349 --- 0 349 18 29 77 124 226 1.57 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.83 Jun-Aug 127 --- 0 127 6 6 50 62 65 1.64 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 284 256 595 65 1.57 2000/01 Sep-Nov 65 470 0 535 17 195 62 274 261 1.72 Dec-Feb 261 --- 0 261 11 11 72 94 167 1.94 Mar-May 167 --- 0 167 4 26 63 93 75 1.80 Mkt. yr. 65 470 0 535 35 235 230 500 35 1.75-1.85 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 35 615 0 650 60 275 250 585 65 1.60-2.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 280 6 428 44 79 9 132 295 2.18 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 24 10 73 228 2.04 Dec-Feb 228 --- 9 237 37 23 7 67 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 111 2.19 Mkt. yr. 142 280 28 450 172 136 30 338 111 2.13 2000/01 Jun-Aug 111 318 7 436 44 90 8 142 294 2.35 Sep-Nov 294 --- 5 299 39 6 25 70 229 1.92 Dec-Feb 229 --- 8 237 37 22 16 75 162 2.08 Mar-May 162 --- 8 170 52 3 9 64 106 2.08 Mkt. yr. 111 318 28 457 172 121 58 351 106 2.15 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 106 264 35 405 172 100 30 302 103 2.00-2.40 OATS 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 32 0.3 49 134 1.08 Dec-Feb 134 --- 23 157 14 40 0.2 55 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 122 21 24 0.7 46 76 1.31 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Jun-Aug 76 149 21 246 17 79 0.4 96 150 1.02 Sep-Nov 150 --- 37 187 16 27 0.5 43 144 1.04 Dec-Feb 144 --- 28 172 14 48 0.5 62 110 1.21 Mar-May 110 --- 24 134 21 40 0.7 61 73 1.27 Mkt. yr. 76 149 110 335 68 193 2.0 263 73 1.10 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 73 133 105 311 68 165 2.0 235 76 .95-1.35 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1999/00 Sep-Nov 55.6 5.8 0.5 0.6 62.5 -0.2 62.3 Dec-Feb 38.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 40.6 0.8 41.4 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.1 -0.2 27.9 Jun-Aug 22.6 0.1 2.0 1.2 25.9 8.6 34.5 Mkt. yr. 143.9 7.2 3.2 2.8 157.1 9.0 166.1 88.8 1.87 % Change 3.5 8.4 4.9 -7.6 3.5 38.1 5.0 0.9 4.0 2000/01 Sep-Nov 55.7 5.0 0.1 0.5 61.3 -0.6 60.7 Dec-Feb 40.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 42.2 0.1 42.3 Mar-May 29.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 30.4 -0.4 30.0 Mkt. yr. 148.6 6.0 1.9 3.0 159.4 5.9 165.4 89.4 1.85 % Change 3.3 -17.3 -41.4 5.8 1.5 -33.9 -0.4 0.6 -1.1 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 145.4 7.0 2.4 2.7 157.5 6.1 163.6 87.9 1.86 % Change -2.1 17.0 27.9 -9.9 -1.2 3.0 -1.1 -1.7 0.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 99/00 3/ 1.86 2.23 3.36 3.79 NQ NQ 1.26 Monthly: 1999: Feb 2.03 2.42 3.67 4.07 NQ NQ 1.19 Mar 2.08 2.42 3.19 4.16 NQ NQ 1.34 Apr 2.09 2.43 3.83 4.10 NQ NQ 1.45 May 2.15 2.43 3.49 4.27 NQ NQ NQ 2000: Feb 1.95 2.35 4.02 4.44 1.51 2.40 NQ Mar 1.92 2.32 4.04 4.34 1.50 2.37 NQ Apr 1.87 2.22 3.45 4.25 1.50 2.35 NQ May /3 1.78 2.14 3.86 4.29 1.50 2.41 NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.76 137.32 84.87 54.74 88.10 99/00 158.15 124.00 52.89 237.31 163.13 82.93 53.13 80.20 Monthly: 1999: Feb 163.55 130.50 51.90 248.50 159.69 82.50 69.50 77.00 Mar 167.00 129.38 51.50 243.13 163.88 73.75 56.30 77.70 Apr 169.00 125.00 51.75 216.25 167.93 70.00 49.08 81.90 May 180.10 123.25 51.10 240.00 181.33 92.00 49.16 95.00 2000: Feb 158.34 148.75 65.87 267.50 171.99 105.00 64.82 94.20 Mar 149.06 138.13 60.63 253.75 152.97 102.00 55.53 93.70 Apr 149.73 140.00 54.13 228.75 135.47 101.00 51.10 100.00 May 3/ 155.58 137.50 52.10 231.00 136.78 88.40 42.93 113.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Jun-Aug 149.2 58.4 63.8 147.8 29.7 46.5 495.4 Mkt year 539.5 221.9 251.1 565.8 129.7 185.0 1,893.0 2000/01 Sep-Nov 126.0 56.2 63.4 142.9 31.8 44.9 465.1 Dec-Feb 118.4 49.9 59.2 158.0 33.3 44.9 463.7 Mar-May 144.6 56.5 62.0 161.3 34.8 45.3 504.5 Mkt year 545.1 220.0 250.0 620.0 130.0 180.6 1,945.6 2001/02 Mkt year 555.0 225.0 255.0 665.0 131.0 184.0 2,015.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 2/ 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 Monthly 2000: Mar 15.39 11.29 16.38 9.25 12.76 Apr 15.26 11.16 16.38 9.25 12.94 May 15.90 11.80 16.38 9.25 13.06 Jun 15.29 10.25 16.38 9.25 13.36 2001: Mar 16.05 11.95 16.88 9.50 12.52 Apr 16.08 11.98 16.88 9.50 12.70 May 15.70 11.60 16.88 9.50 12.64 Jun /2 15.62 11.52 16.88 9.50 12.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-April Mkt. yr. June-April June-April ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,142 1,090 1,287 1,192 1,395 Finland 216 182 125 102 74 Sweden 443 432 276 276 205 Total 1/ 1,856 1,704 1,703 1,584 1,674 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 567 512 543 502 513 Total 1/ 567 512 543 502 514 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 81 78 60 44 48 Total 1/ 81 78 60 44 48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Apr. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Apr. Sept.-Apr. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 15,224 10,058 15,149 10,153 9,737 Taiwan 4,365 2,749 5,036 3,555 3,256 Mexico 5,387 3,752 4,832 3,051 4,569 Egypt 3,586 2,078 3,790 2,446 2,310 S. Korea 6,462 3,989 3,134 2,448 1,759 Colombia 1,512 1,025 1,782 1,126 993 Saudi Arabia 1,182 761 1,164 773 669 Venezuela 1,288 899 1,073 654 574 Algeria 955 661 1,042 581 902 Dominican Republic 777 465 1,003 615 633 Canada 867 431 982 599 1,574 Turkey 692 235 874 519 287 Israel 399 253 695 420 551 Iran 0 0 611 551 144 Morocco 599 326 604 395 286 Syria 354 195 603 373 326 Chile 486 392 542 517 33 Tunisia 441 316 519 355 296 Sub-Saharan Africa 441 192 511 439 77 Former USSR 405 1 491 403 85 Peru 674 500 458 430 90 EU 192 191 141 86 12 China 259 154 58 58 0 East Europe 12 12 35 35 0 Others 3,667 2,333 3,967 2,573 2,856 Total 50,228 31,968 49,098 33,153 32,020 SORGHUM Mexico 3,103 1,992 4,824 3,351 3,424 Japan 1,362 1,098 1,123 956 725 EU 197 197 181 179 0 Others 237 198 239 158 170 Total 4,899 3,485 6,366 4,644 4,319 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-Apr. Mkt. yr. June-Apr. June-Apr. BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Japan 443 412 391 377 374 Mexico 94 88 104 101 106 Jordan 0 0 50 50 0 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 364 Taiwan 0 0 5 5 57 Other 79 75 107 85 277 Total 615 575 657 618 1,178 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE