FEED OUTLOOK August 14, 2001 August 2001 FDS-0801 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------ The Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831, issues FEED OUTLOOK 11 times a year. Electronic release only, no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on April 25, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2001, $21. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This month’s outlook is shaped by the first survey-based data on corn and sorghum. Acreage of corn decreased marginally from earlier reported plantings, while sorghum acres increased. Forecast yields of both corn and sorghum were below the trend yields used in earlier production estimates. Even though supplies and stocks of feed grains have tightened since last month’s projections, ending stocks of the four feed grains, at 41.4 million metric tons, are still well above the low of 14.4 million recorded in 1995/96. Tightened supplies have caused expected prices to strengthen. While foreign production prospects declined over 12 million tons this month, the foreign use projection declined less than 1 million. Most of the adjustment to reduced foreign coarse grain supply was an 8-million-ton drop in forecast ending stocks. Foreign coarse grain ending stocks are projected at 119 million tons, the lowest in 16 years. FEED GRAIN SUPPLY TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR U.S. feed grain production in 2001 is forecast at 257 million metric tons, down 8 million from a month ago and down 17 million from 2000. This mainly reflects lower corn and sorghum production. Feed grain supply in 2001/02 is forecast at 314 million tons, down 3 percent from both last month and 2000/01. Forecast beginning stocks are down 3 percent from last month, but up 12 percent from the previous year. Total feed grain use is projected at 273 million tons in 2001/02, up 1 percent from the previous year. Domestic use of 215 million tons is unchanged from last month but slightly above a year earlier. Feed and residual use in 2001/02 is expected to total 157 million metric tons and account for 58 percent of total use. When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2001/02 is projected to total 163 million tons, down .3 million from last month and down 2 percent from 2000/01. Corn is estimated to account for 90 percent of the feed and residual use in 2001/02, the same as in 2000/01. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2001/02 was raised 1 percent this month but is down 1 percent from 2000/01. A projected increase in beef and milk production caused the increase in GCAUs. June placements were larger than expected in all weight categories, implying that beef production will be higher than last month’s forecasts through the end of 2001 and into the first half of 2002. High milk prices are expected to result in milk production being little changed in 2000/01 and to increase 3 percent in 2001/02. Thus, feed needs by these two sectors are expected to strengthen in 2001/02, while needs for the other livestock sectors are little changed this month. The grain used per GCAU in 2001/02 would be 1.84 tons, down nearly 1 percent from last month and 2000/01. CORN CROP FORECAST DOWN 7 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR Corn production in 2001 is forecast at 9.27 billion bushels, down 229 million from last month and 702 million below last year. This is the first survey-based forecast of the season and reflects August 1 conditions. The average corn yield is forecast at 133.9 bushels per acre, compared with last month's adjusted trend yield of 137 bushels and the actual 2000 yield of 137.1 bushels. The August 1 survey data indicate record stalk counts and average kernel row length for the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The forecast average corn yield for States only conducting a farmer-reported survey is forecast at 121.4 bushels per acre, down 3.4 bushels from 2000 yields. Yields are mostly higher than last year in the northern Plains and Southeast, rebounding from drought conditions in 2000. Farmers reported lower yields than last year in the Southern Plains as extreme heat and dry weather prevailed during pollination. Corn yields in the Mid- Atlantic States are down from last year’s record highs, but are still at fairly high levels. Estimated acres of corn planted and harvested for grain were cut 100,000 acres (all in Iowa) this month to 76.009 million planted and 69.191 million harvested, respectively. Plantings are down 4 percent from 2000 and harvested for grain are down 5 percent. Acres harvested for grain would be the smallest since 1995. Projected ending stocks for 2001/02 decreased 369 million bushels from last month and are the lowest since 1997/98. Lower production and beginning stocks supplies declined 279 million while use rose 90 million. Forecast 2001/02 corn use was increased to a record 9.825 billion bushels, up 135 million bushels from 2000/01. Expected domestic use in 2001/02 is up 65 million bushels because a sharply reduced sorghum crop (down 71 million bushels from last month) will result in a shift from sorghum to corn in both feed and residual use and industrial use. Projected corn exports are up 25 million bushels because of increased global imports. With decreased corn supplies and increased use, the forecast price for 2001/02 is $1.90-$2.30 per bushel, compared with last month's $1.75-$2.15. In 2000/01, the season-average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.85. SORGHUM CROP DOWN FROM MONTH AGO BUT UP FROM LAST YEAR The first survey-based forecast for sorghum indicates production of 544 million bushels in 2001, down 71 million from last month but up 74 million from last year. Plantings rose 300,000 acres from the July estimate, as Texas producers planted land abandoned from cotton. However, area to be harvested for grain was reduced 80,000 acres. Yields are forecast at 62 bushels per acre, down sharply from the earlier projection (based on a simple linear trend fit over 1960-98), but up 1.1 bushels from 2000. With beginning stocks also reduced, sorghum supplies in 2001/02 are down sharply from last month but up 29 million bushels from 2000/01. Beginning stocks are estimated to be down 15 million from last month and down 45 million bushels from 2000/01. Larger-than- expected shipments late in the 2000/01 marketing year increased total use and lowered stocks. Given lower production, total use of sorghum in 2001/02 is expected to be down 65 million bushels from last month. Feed and residual use was lowered 50 million bushels this month and would be down 10 million from the estimated use for 2000/01. Food, seed, and industrial use was lowered 15 million bushels this month, but is up 10 million from the forecasted use in 2000/01. In the 2000/01 marketing year, prices received by farmers for sorghum are expected to average $1.85 per bushel, the same as corn and up from 88 percent in 1999/2000. Prices in 2001/02 will remain strong relative to corn, projected at $1.85-$2.25, 97-98 percent of the corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION DECLINES Barley production for 2001 is forecast at 266 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from a month ago but down 52 million from 2000. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1953. Based on August 1 conditions, producers expect to average 58.8 bushels per acre, a decrease of 2.3 bushels from last year’s near-record high, but .4 bushel above the July forecast. Total barley supplies in 2001/02 were lowered 3 million bushels this month due to smaller imports stemming from a drought-reduced Canadian crop. Barley use in 2001/02 was unchanged from last month but down 50 million bushels from last year. Prices received by farmers for barley in 2001/02 are expected to average $2.05-$2.45 per bushel, vs. the expected $2.15 in 2000/01. The barley-to-corn price ratio in 2001/02 is expected to range between 107 percent and 108 percent, down from the expected 116 percent in 2000/01. OATS PRODUCTION DECREASES The 2001 oats crop is forecast at 135 million bushels, up 3.3 million from the July forecast, but down 14 million from 2000. If realized, this would be the lowest production on record. The forecast yield, at 62 bushels per acre, is up 1.5 bushels from last month but down 2.2 bushels from last year. Total supplies were lower this month as reduced imports from Canada will more than offset the slightly larger U.S. crop. Prices received by farmers in 2001/02 are expected to average between $1.05 and $1.45 per bushel, compared with the $1.10 expected in 2000/01. ALL HAY PRODUCTION TO INCREASE All hay production in 2001 is forecast at 158 million tons, up 6 million from 2000 all because of higher harvested acres. The all- hay yield is expected to be down 2 percent to 2.48 tons per acre. Alfalfa hay production, at 80.2 million tons, decreased 181,000 tons from 2000. Forecast yields are 3.38 tons per acre, down 3 percent from 2000. Harvested area is 23.8 million acres, up 3 percent from 2000. Oklahoma’s alfalfa yield is down 1.1 tons per acre due to dry weather. The Ohio Valley States are reporting small declines following last year’s good yields. Other hay production is forecast at 78.1 million tons, up 9 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 1.95 tons per acre, unchanged from last year. Harvested area at 40.1 million acres, is up 9 percent and the largest since 1958. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAUs) in 2001/02 are estimated to be up nearly 1 percent from 2001/02. With hay production up but beginning stocks down, hay supply per RCAU is 2.46 tons, compared with 2.50 tons in 2000/01. Prices received by farmers for all hay averaged $99.37 per ton in May-July 2001, up from $84.57 in 2000. Alfalfa hay prices in May-July 2001 averaged $107.00 per ton, compared with $88.40 in 2000. Prices received by farmers for hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures averaged $73.27 per ton during May-July 2001, up slightly from $70.07 in 2000. Global Coarse Grain Production Prospects Slashed This Month Forecast 2001/02 world coarse grain production dropped nearly 20 million tons this month to 858 million. This is nearly as low as production estimated for the previous year, as increased global area is offset by reduced yield prospects. The foreign coarse grain production projection was reduced 12 million tons this month mostly because of a sharply smaller corn crop in China. Other changes include reduced production prospects for Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and Ukraine, but higher for Eastern Europe. China’s coarse grain production forecast dropped over 11 million tons this month, mostly because of a 10-million-ton drop in corn prospects. Corn area declined 1 million hectares to 23.5 million due to reduced estimates for 2000/01. Yield prospects were also reduced this month because generally hot dry conditions early in the growing season were only partly offset by crop-saving rains in Manchuria in the last half of July. A significant portion of the late planted and replanted corn is expected to suffer yield losses if the first frost arrives at the normal time. China’s sorghum, barley, and millet crop prospects were also reduced. Corn production prospects in Brazil and Argentina were reduced this month because prices have favored planting soybeans. Soybeans are cheaper to grow and Brazil’s weak currency favors the production of an export crop. Brazil’s corn prospects dropped 2 million tons, while Argentina’s declined 0.5 million. Canada’s coarse grain production prospects declined 1 million tons this month, mostly because of drought-reduced barley production. The European Union’s (EU) coarse grain prospects declined this month as Spain’s barley harvest results were worse than expected, lowering the forecast for Spain 1 million tons. France’s coarse grain prospects also deteriorated, but improved prospects for Germany and Finland offset most of the declines. Russia and Ukraine corn production prospects declined 0.5 million tons each because of hot dry weather. Forecast coarse grain production in Eastern Europe increased nearly 3 million tons this month, largely because of increased corn and barley crops in Hungary and Romania. Early harvest reports indicate good barley crops, and favorable growing conditions boosted corn prospects. Foreign Coarse Grain Stocks Forecast Lowest Since 1985/86 Foreign production prospects dropped over 12 million tons this month, while foreign use projections declined less than 1 million. Most of the adjustment was an 8-million-ton drop in forecast ending stocks. Foreign coarse grain ending stocks are projected at 119 million tons, the lowest in 16 years. The largest 2001/02 ending stocks reduction is for China’s corn, down 9 million tons to less than 63 million. This represents a nearly 40-percent drop from estimated stocks of 2 years earlier. While in 2000/01 China elected to maintain large corn exports and reduce ending stocks sharply, in 2001/02 domestic corn prices in China are expected to be too high for exports, even with subsidies. China’s corn exports are expected to drop from 7 million in 2000/01 to 1 million tons for 2001/02. The coarse grain stock forecast for Canada is also down this month because of reduced production, but stocks prospects are slightly higher in several other regions. Despite larger exports, rising production will boost Eastern Europe’s ending stocks. Ending stocks are forecast slightly higher in the EU, and Latin America’s stocks are projected up 0.5 million tons because of higher Brazilian corn stocks. U.S. Corn Export Forecasts Boosted for 2000/01 and 2001/02 With the final months of 2000/01 unwinding, preliminary trade data were used to adjust several trade forecasts this month. The extremely heavy pace of shipments in recent weeks boosted forecast U.S. corn exports 1 million tons to 46 million and sorghum exports 0.3 million tons to 6 million. The pace of sales reduced Argentina’s corn export forecast 1 million tons, while boosting Brazil’s corn exports 0.7 million. Reduced availability of EU export licenses reduced its barley exports 1 million tons, with reduced barley imports for Algeria and Saudi Arabia. U.S. 2001/02 corn exports are forecast up 0.5 million tons to 51.5 million this month because of an increase in expected global imports. Foreign competition is little changed this month in aggregate, with reductions for China and Argentina offset by increased corn exports for Hungary and Romania. EU 2001/02 barley export prospects were reduced 1 million tons to 7 million. Strong domestic demand and tighter supplies are likely to limit the willingness of the EU Commission to subsidize exports. **************************************************************************** * * Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * * International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * * * * The next Feed Outlook will be released September 14, 2001. * ***************************************************************************** Debate on the 2002 farm bill is intensifying, with a wide range of ideas emerging on how best to address the needs of farmers and other constituencies. A recently released ERS report, Feed Grains Background and Issues for Farm Legislation, provides information on topics important to the debate, including market conditions, policy proposals, WTO considerations, and the interactions between policy and markets. This online-only report is the first of the occasional Feed Outlook supplements that will provide timely analysis on specific topics. Readers will no longer have to wait for the Feed Situation and Outlook Yearbook for all of the in-depth special reports on the feed grains sector. Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,431 4 11,221 459 2,189 534 3,182 8,039 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,039 --- 3 8,043 447 1,526 468 2,441 5,602 1.91 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,059 451 2,021 3,586 2.05 Jun-Aug 3,586 --- 2 3,588 496 890 485 1,871 1,718 1.64 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,431 15 11,232 1,913 5,664 1,937 9,515 1,718 1.82 2000/01 Sep-Nov 1,718 9,968 1 11,687 465 2,194 506 3,165 8,522 1.76 Dec-Feb 8,522 --- 1 8,523 464 1,600 416 2,480 6,043 1.97 Mar-May 6,043 --- 3 6,046 523 1,143 456 2,122 3,924 1.90 Mkt. yr.1,718 9,968 7 11,693 1,965 5,850 1,875 9,690 2,003 1.85 2001/02 Mkt. yr.2,003 9,266 15 11,284 2,050 5,775 2,000 9,825 1,459 1.90-2.30 SORGHUM 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 228 65 311 349 1.45 Dec-Feb 349 --- 0 349 18 29 77 124 226 1.57 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.82 Jun-Aug 127 --- 0 127 6 6 50 62 65 1.64 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 284 256 595 65 1.57 2000/01 Sep-Nov 65 470 0 535 17 195 62 274 261 1.72 Dec-Feb 261 --- 0 261 11 11 72 94 167 1.94 Mar-May 167 --- 0 167 4 25 63 93 75 1.80 Mkt. yr. 65 470 0 535 35 235 245 515 20 1.85 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 20 544 0 565 45 225 250 520 45 1.85-2.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 280 6 428 44 79 9 132 295 2.18 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 24 10 73 228 2.04 Dec-Feb 228 --- 9 237 37 23 7 67 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 111 2.19 Mkt. yr. 142 280 28 450 172 136 30 338 111 2.13 2000/01 Jun-Aug 111 318 7 436 44 90 8 142 294 2.35 Sep-Nov 294 --- 5 299 39 6 25 70 229 1.92 Dec-Feb 229 --- 8 237 37 22 16 75 162 2.07 Mar-May 162 --- 9 171 52 4 8 65 106 2.08 Mkt. yr. 111 318 29 458 172 123 58 352 106 2.15 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 106 266 30 402 172 100 30 302 100 2.05-2.45 OATS 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 32 0.3 49 134 1.08 Dec-Feb 134 --- 23 157 14 40 0.2 55 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 122 21 24 0.7 46 76 1.31 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Jun-Aug 76 149 21 246 17 79 0.4 96 150 1.02 Sep-Nov 150 --- 37 187 16 27 0.5 43 144 1.04 Dec-Feb 144 --- 28 172 14 48 0.5 62 110 1.21 Mar-May 110 --- 20 130 21 36 0.4 57 73 1.27 Mkt. yr. 76 149 106 331 68 189 1.7 259 73 1.10 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 73 135 100 308 68 165 2.0 235 73 1.05-1.45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats grains Wheat grains units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1999/00 Sep-Nov 55.6 5.8 0.5 0.6 62.5 -0.2 62.3 Dec-Feb 38.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 40.6 0.8 41.4 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.1 -0.3 27.8 Jun-Aug 22.6 0.1 2.0 1.2 25.9 8.6 34.5 Mkt. yr. 143.9 7.2 3.2 2.8 157.1 8.8 165.9 88.8 1.87 % Change 3.5 8.4 4.9 -7.6 3.5 35.5 4.9 0.9 3.9 2000/01 Sep-Nov 55.7 5.0 0.1 0.5 61.3 -0.6 60.7 Dec-Feb 40.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 42.2 0.1 42.3 Mar-May 29.0 0.6 0.1 0.6 30.4 -0.2 30.2 Mkt. yr. 148.6 6.0 2.2 3.0 159.8 6.1 165.9 89.4 1.86 % Change 3.3 -17.3 -30.0 6.1 1.7 -31.0 -0.0 0.6 -0.7 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 146.7 5.7 2.2 2.6 157.2 6.1 163.3 88.6 1.84 % Change -1.3 -4.3 -2.6 -13.1 -1.6 0.5 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 99/00 3/ 1.86 2.23 3.36 3.79 NQ NQ 1.26 Monthly: 2000: Mar 2.08 2.42 3.19 4.16 NQ NQ 1.34 Apr 2.09 2.43 3.83 4.10 NQ NQ 1.45 May 2.15 2.43 3.49 4.27 NQ NQ NQ Jun 1.83 2.13 3.00 3.60 NQ NQ NQ 2001: Mar 1.92 2.32 4.04 4.34 1.50 2.37 NQ Apr 1.87 2.22 3.45 4.25 1.50 2.35 NQ May 1.78 2.14 3.86 4.29 1.50 2.41 NQ Jun 3/ 1.76 2.11 4.01 4.06 1.50 NQ NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.76 137.32 84.87 54.74 88.10 99/00 158.15 124.00 52.89 237.31 163.13 82.93 53.13 80.20 Monthly: 2000: Mar 167.00 129.38 51.50 243.13 163.88 73.75 56.30 77.70 Apr 169.00 125.00 51.75 216.25 167.93 70.00 49.08 81.90 May 180.10 123.25 51.10 240.00 181.33 92.00 49.16 95.00 Jun 170.18 130.63 48.80 223.75 174.64 76.00 49.00 85.70 2001: 3/ Mar 149.06 138.13 60.63 253.75 152.97 102.00 55.53 93.70 Apr 149.73 140.00 54.13 228.75 135.47 101.00 51.10 100.00 May 155.58 137.50 52.10 231.00 136.78 88.40 42.93 113.00 Jun 163.10 126.88 54.75 237.50 152.85 75.00 53.28 103.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. Table 5--Corn: Food and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Jun-Aug 149.2 58.4 63.8 147.8 29.7 46.5 495.4 Mkt year 539.5 221.9 251.1 565.8 129.7 185.0 1,893.0 2000/01 Sep-Nov 126.0 56.2 63.4 142.9 31.8 44.9 465.1 Dec-Feb 118.4 49.9 59.2 158.0 33.3 44.9 463.7 Mar-May 144.6 56.5 62.0 161.3 34.8 45.3 504.5 Mkt year 545.1 220.0 250.0 620.0 130.0 180.6 1,945.6 2001/02 Mkt year 555.0 225.0 255.0 680.0 131.0 184.0 2,030.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 2/ 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 Monthly 2000: Apr 15.26 11.16 16.38 9.25 12.94 May 15.90 11.80 16.38 9.25 13.06 Jun 15.29 10.25 16.38 9.25 13.36 Jul 14.72 11.07 16.38 9.25 12.76 2001: Apr 16.08 11.98 16.88 9.50 12.70 May 15.70 11.60 16.88 9.50 12.64 Jun 15.62 11.52 16.88 9.50 12.40 Jul 2/ 16.13 12.03 16.88 9.50 12.16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Mkt. yr. June-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,142 1,287 1,466 Finland 216 125 103 Sweden 443 276 257 Total 1/ 1,856 1,703 1,827 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 567 543 585 Total 1/ 567 543 585 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 81 60 51 Total 1/ 81 60 51 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Sept.-May Mkt. yr. Sept.-May Sept.-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 15,224 11,117 15,149 11,471 10,747 Taiwan 4,365 3,072 5,036 3,900 3,555 Mexico 5,387 4,360 4,832 3,955 4,873 Egypt 3,586 2,399 3,790 2,446 2,446 S. Korea 6,462 4,418 3,134 2,505 1,812 Colombia 1,512 1,131 1,782 1,296 1,101 Saudi Arabia 1,182 786 1,164 854 702 Venezuela 1,288 899 1,073 654 574 Algeria 955 699 1,042 642 949 Dominican Republic 777 551 1,003 700 716 Canada 867 516 982 636 1,814 Turkey 692 384 874 593 342 Israel 399 271 695 465 560 Iran 0 0 611 551 144 Morocco 599 385 604 434 286 Syria 354 195 603 397 326 Chile 486 392 542 517 33 Tunisia 441 336 519 391 296 Sub-Saharan Africa 441 197 511 446 111 Former USSR 405 209 491 480 96 Peru 674 533 458 430 90 EU 192 192 141 86 12 China 259 154 58 58 0 East Europe 12 12 35 35 0 Others 3,667 2,595 3,967 2,864 3,289 Total 50,228 35,803 49,098 36,807 34,876 SORGHUM Mexico 3,103 2,346 4,824 3,784 4,011 Japan 1,362 1,123 1,123 990 737 EU 197 197 181 179 0 Others 237 208 239 160 170 Total 4,899 3,873 6,366 5,113 4,918 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Mkt. yr. June-May BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Japan 443 391 388 Mexico 94 104 113 Jordan 0 50 0 Saudi Arabia 0 0 416 Taiwan 0 5 57 Other 79 107 279 Total 615 657 1,253 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE