HDR1011800201101114951500 FRUIT AND TREE NUTS--SUMMARY November 14, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of FRUIT AND TREE NUTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary Tighter Supplies and Large Exports Support Grower Prices in 1995/96 Smaller crops and larger exports of most fruit should boost grower prices in 1995/96. Production is expected to be lower for processing oranges, all grapefruits, apples, peaches, pears, grapes, strawberries, almonds, and walnuts. Larger crops are expected for fresh market oranges, lemons, avocados, cranberries, pecans, and hazelnuts. Total U.S. citrus production is forecast at 16.1 million short tons in 1995/96. While production is expected to increase less than one percent from the 1994/95 crop, it would be 10 percent above 1993/94 and the largest crop since the record 16.5 million short tons in 1979/80. U.S. orange juice production is forecasts at 1.3 billion gallons(single-strength equivalent) in 1995/96, 3 percent higher than a year ago. A slightly smaller Florida orange crop is expected to be offset by higher juice yields. Higher exports, along with lower imports and slightly tighter ending stocks could provide some price support this coming year. The California orange crop is expected up 8 percent in 1995/96. Despite a larger crop this year, prices are expected to increase for fresh oranges, supported by strong export demand. Grapefruit production in 1995/96 is expected to decline slightly from the 1994/95 record. Total production is expected to reach 2.8 million short tons, a 3 percent decline. Florida's crop, which accounts for over 80 percent of U.S. grapefruit production, is down 3 percent to 2.3 million tons. The decline is attributed to smaller-sized grapefruit and lower fruit set than last year. In 1995/96, slightly lower production along with higher exports should boost grower prices. USDA expects the 1995/96 lemon crop to increase 14 percent to 1.045 million tons. The larger 1995/96 crop should put downward pressure on prices, boosting domestic consumption and exports. Reduced apple production in Washington and California brought the final 1995 estimate down 2 percent from 1994's record crop. Relatively favorable growing conditions in the Central and Eastern States resulted in larger 1995 apple crops in Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania. The decline in U.S. apple production in 1995, along with high quality fruits, and prospects of continued strong domestic and export demand have supported apple prices. The final pear estimate for 1995 was down 8 percent from 1994 because of excessive moisture and hail in California. The Washington crop was up slightly. Tighter domestic supplies in 1995/96 will help boost grower prices for fresh market pears. U.S. grape production in 1995 is expected to be down 2 percent from last year, reflecting smaller crops in California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Larger crops are expected in Washington, Michigan, Ohio, Arkansas, Georgia, and North Carolina. The final 1995 U.S. peach crop estimate was down fractionally from 1994. Stormy weather and hail this spring in California contributed to the decline. The smaller U.S. peach crop helped boost peach prices. With lower processing supplies this year, processors also paid higher prices for canning peaches. USDA's July forecast for the 1995 U.S. strawberry crop was down 7 percent from last year. Lower yields in California reduced production. Output in Oregon and Washington was also down. Florida's winter crop was almost unchanged from a year ago. Lower yields in Florida, relative to a year ago, were nearly offset by an increase in area harvested. Both fresh and processed uses in 1995 declined from 1994 because of reduced production. The smaller 1995 crop helped strengthen fresh strawberry prices. Strawberry processing declined this year due to higher prices for fresh strawberries and lower production. Also, ample stocks of frozen strawberries from 1994's large crop resulted in a relatively sluggish demand and lower prices for processing strawberries in 1995. Given favorable growing conditions, California's avocado harvest in 1995/96 is expected to be about 10 to 20 percent larger than the 1994/95 forecast, and the highest since 1992/93. Florida's avocado production is also expected to be higher. With the larger crop, imports are likely to decline while exports will continue strong. While U.S. cranberry production is expected to be up only 1 percent over a year ago, it could set a new record. A drought in Massachusetts, hail in Oregon, and a very wet spring in Washington, hampered production. Higher output in Wisconsin, however, is expected to offset declines elsewhere. The average price growers receive for cranberries may be slightly higher in 1995. Contract prices were supported by increased demand for processing cranberries as the number of handlers and processors rose. Tree nut prices, except for hazelnuts, are expected higher for 1995. California's almond and walnut crops are both expected to fall. Oregon's hazelnut production is forecast up 80 percent. Lower beginning stocks and imports are expected to offset higher pecan output. This issue contains a special article which examines the implications for the U.S. orange juice industry due to the gradual phasing-out of tariffs under NAFTA/GATT and the Uruguay Round Agreement. The article also examines the potential effect of bringing Brazil into NAFTA. END-END-END