FRUIT AND TREE NUTS March 28, 2001 March 2001, ERS-FTS-291 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRUIT AND TREE NUTS is published three times a year (includes yearbook) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of FRUIT AND TREE NUTS -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the USDA order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # SUB-FTS-4036, $36/year. ERS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The index of prices received by growers for fruit averaged 12 percent lower in 2000 than 1999. Prices declined for all major fresh fruit except apples. Prices for processing citrus also declined. The return to a more normal size citrus crop in 2000 after substantial losses in California from a freeze the preceding year, contributed to the overall price decline. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh fruit averaged 3 percent lower in 2000 than 1999. Consumers paid higher prices at the retail level for Red Delicious apples and bananas. Lower prices for citrus fruit, especially oranges, drove the CPI down. Barring any weather-related problems this spring and early summer, we can expect the 2001 CPI to continue lower than a year ago. This winter provided sufficient chill hours for the noncitrus crops to produce good supplies this summer and fall. The current citrus crop is forecast to be almost a million tons smaller than last year's crop, although it is still larger than the 1998/99 crop. If realized, the 2000/01 crop of 16.5 million tons would be the second smallest in the last 5 years. All the major citrus crops, except lemons, are expected to be smaller this year. Declines in crop size are predicted for the two largest producing States, Florida and California, but increases are expected in Texas and Arizona. Crop size is estimated to be 12.4 million tons, 7.1 million tons of navel and other early to mid-season orange varieties, and 5.3 million tons of Valencia, the late-season variety. The 2000/01 orange crop is forecast to be 6 percent smaller than the previous crop. Drought conditions and freezing temperatures in Florida contributed to the reduction in expected crop size. California's orange crop is projected to reach 2.2 million tons this year, 12 percent below the 1999/2000 crop. The number of fruit per tree was down this year, resulting in larger sized navel oranges than last year. Plenty of rain this past winter also helped fruit size. The Valencia orange crop is forecast to reach 938,000 tons in 2000/01, 7 percent below a year ago, but higher than the freeze-reduced crop of 2 years ago. Fresh orange exports are up so far this marketing year (November-December) over the same period a year ago. Exports increased to all major markets. Asian markets are strong this year, and orange exports to China have grown rapidly since it opened its market to U.S. citrus last year. Florida's orange production is expected to be 4 percent below a year ago. Lack of rain and cold weather for much of the growing season caused fruit size to be below average. Orange juice production is forecast at 1.4 million single-strength equivalent (sse) gallons, down 4 percent from last year but 16 percent above 2 years ago when there was a smaller crop. Juice yields are projected at 1.58 gallons per box, up from 1.55 gallons in 1999/2000. Despite the expected smaller level of production in 2000/01, juice supplies are predicted to be up 1 percent from last year. Record-large beginning stocks in October, the beginning of the new marketing year, coupled with an expected increase in imports without much change forecast in exports, result in the projection for orange juice supplies to total 2.4 billion sse gallons. Demand for fruit by processors should increase as harvesting of the Valencia crop picks up. The strong demand for the smaller crop should push prices up, benefiting growers. Prices have been low in the beginning of the season as processors reduced stocks. The U.S. grapefruit crop is forecast at 2.6 million tons, 6 percent smaller than 1999/2000, but still larger than the 2 previous seasons. The Florida crop, which accounts for 80 percent of U.S. production, is expected to decline 8 percent. The cool, dry winter in Florida this year limited fruit growth. Fruit size is the third smallest in the last 10 years. The small size and lagging maturity levels of the fruit have slowed utilization. Also slowing utilization are the large beginning stocks of grapefruit juice, reducing demand by processors. The lagging demand for grapefruit this year has lowered grower prices in Florida after 2 years of increases. Fresh grapefruit exports rose 1 percent from September through December 2000 over the same period the previous year. Exports to Japan and the European Union were higher. The 2000/01 lemon crop is estimated to total 927,000 tons, the largest crop since 1996/97. If realized, the crop will be 7 percent bigger than last year. Both California and Arizona are expecting larger crops. The large crop is putting downward pressure on grower and retail prices. Tangerine, Temple, and tangelo production are projected to be lower in 2000/01 than the previous year. The tangerine crop, the largest of the specialty citrus crops, is expected to be 16 percent smaller than last season's record-large crop. It is expected, however, to be larger than the crops for the 2 years prior. Tangerine prices have been averaging higher this year and should stay strong for the remainder of the season as imports decline. The 2000 utilized production of noncitrus fruit was estimated at about 18.2 million short tons, up 5 percent from 1999. Many fruit orchards and vineyards in California and Washington experienced generally favorable weather conditions during 2000 that have been conducive to high production. The good performance of many of the fruit crops in these two States balanced out production declines brought by weather problems in other regions. U.S. utilized production increased for grapes, peaches, strawberries, prunes and plums, blackberries, blueberries, raspberries, tart cherries, California figs and kiwifruit, and Hawaiian bananas, papayas, and pineapples. The preliminary estimate of the value of noncitrus fruit production for 2000 was a record $8.1 billion, up less than 1 percent from the previous year. Much of the increase came from a 5- percent increase in the value of the 2000 grape crop, the most valuable noncitrus crop in the United States. Based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) preliminary estimates, total U.S. apple production for 2000 is 10.6 billion pounds, down less than 1 percent from a year earlier. The average price for apples received by U.S. growers in 2000 was $300 per short ton, about the same as a year ago. The large Washington crop, however, will likely contribute to increased fresh-market supplies in the United States during 2000/01 compared with the previous year. Consequently, prices for fresh-market apples will likely average lower than a year ago. Freezing temperatures in late December and early January slowed the progress of Floridas 2001 strawberry winter crop. Shipments have been behind last year. While no major damage was reported, the prolonged cold weather delayed bloom. Also, wet fields resulting from irrigating to protect the crop from freezing temperatures hindered harvesting. Although shipment volume picked up by mid-February, overall shipments through early March were still down significantly from last year. In California, slightly smaller acreage is expected to be devoted to strawberry production this year. Increased plantings of new, everbearing, high-yielding varieties are expected to make up for some of the reduced acreage and keep production near last years record-high crop. Based on estimates from both Florida and California, domestically-grown avocados will likely be in abundant supply this year. Because overall domestic supplies in 2000/01 are anticipated to exceed last season, avocado prices are likely to average lower. So far, 2000/01 shipments from California during November to late February have been running 10 percent ahead of the same period in 1999/2000. Early indications point to another strong crop of California peaches and nectarines in 2001, according to industry sources. Abundant supplies of good quality peaches and nectarines are expected, but this same situation may not hold true for plums. Heavy rains in early March hampered pollination, particularly for early plum varieties that were already in full bloom. A strong growing season may put downward pressure on stone fruit prices this summer. However, if export markets remain strong like a year ago, the downward pressure on prices could be moderated. U.S. imports of Chilean fruit are projected to be up for 2000/01. Favorable weather throughout most of Chiles fruit-growing season has benefited the countrys production of apples, pears, table grapes, avocados, stone fruit, and kiwifruit for this marketing season. Improvement in both yields and quality for most of these crops point to the prospect of increased Chilean fruit imports into the United States this year. Also fueling the growth in Chilean shipments to the United States is the devaluation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar. Chilean exporters are shifting some fruit shipments to the United States that would normally be bound for the European market. Total tree nut production was 16 percent lower this year due to the alternate bearing nature of nut trees. Production was down for all nut crops except pistachios. Pistachio production reached a record 243 million tons in 2000/01. Bearing acreage was up for all the major California nut crops--almonds, pistachios, and walnuts. Macadamia nut bearing acreage in Hawaii and hazelnut bearing acreage in both Washington and Oregon declined for the third straight year. The smaller crops resulted in higher season- average grower prices for almonds, hazelnuts, and pecans. Despite a smaller crop in 2000/01, macadamia nut growers received lower prices for their crop, as did pistachio nut growers with their large crop drawing down prices. Fruit Grower Prices Averaged Lower in 2000 The index of prices received by growers for fruit averaged 12 percent lower in 2000 than 1999. Prices declined for all major fresh fruit except apples. Prices for processing citrus also declined. The return to a more normal size citrus crop in 2000, after substantial losses in California from a freeze the preceding year, contributed to the overall price decline. The index in January 2001 was 2 percent above the previous January and 7 percent above December 2000 due to higher prices for strawberries and fresh oranges. In February, the index rose 1 percent from January but fell 2 percent from February 2000. Higher prices for fresh oranges and grapefruit drove prices up from January. Weak demand this February, however, has lowered prices from February 2000 for apples, pears, and grapefruit. An expected large crop of lemons this year is keeping lemon prices below a year ago. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh fruit averaged 3 percent lower in 2000 than 1999. Consumers paid higher prices at the retail level for Red Delicious apples, bananas, Thompson seedless grapes, and strawberries. Lower prices for citrus fruit, however, especially oranges, drove the CPI down. Valencia orange prices averaged 36 percent lower than the previous year and navel orange prices averaged 27 percent lower. The January 2001 CPI was 3 percent below December 2000 and 2 percent below January 2000. Barring any weather-related problems this spring and early summer, the 2001 CPI is expected to continue lower than a year ago. This winter provided sufficient chill hours for the noncitrus crops to provide good supplies this summer and fall. Citrus fruit dominate the retail markets during the winter months. Lower prices for grapefruit and lemons are driving the overall CPI down (table 2). Prices for Red Delicious apples were lower than a year ago and have been falling since August. Large apple stocks have put downward pressure on prices, helping consumers with lower prices at the retail level. Prices for navel oranges, however, are above December and a year ago January. The large size of the fruit and good quality have pushed prices up. Although the navel orange crop is smaller this year than last, strong competition from imported fruit, such as summer fruit from Chile and clementines from Spain, kept retail prices lower for November and December. Lemon prices have been averaging below a year ago so far this marketing year (beginning in August). From August through January, retail prices averaged 16 percent lower than in 1999/2000. The larger lemon crop in both California and Arizona has driven down its price. Citrus Outlook The current citrus crop is forecast to be almost a million tons smaller than last year's crop, although it is still larger than the 1998/99 crop. If realized, the 2000/01 crop of 16.5 million tons would be the second smallest in the last 5 years. All the major citrus crops, except lemons, are expected to be smaller this year. The greatest decline is expected for the tangerine crop, which is forecast to be 16 percent below last year's record crop. Declines in crop size are predicted for the two largest producing States, Florida and California, but increases are expected in Texas and Arizona. Dry weather and freezing temperatures throughout much of Florida's citrus-growing season resulted in smaller sized fruit this year. The other three States report good size and quality citrus fruit. The improved size and quality of fresh-market citrus from the West Coast could help pull up navel prices at the end of their season, despite lower prices at the beginning of the season. Orange Crop Expected To Be Smaller But Prices Weak The 2000/01 orange crop is forecast to be 6 percent smaller than the previous crop. Crop size is estimated to be 12.4 million tons, 7.1 million tons of navel and other early- to mid-season orange varieties, and 5.3 million tons of Valencia, the late- season variety (table 3). California's navel production is expected to be 15 percent lower than a year earlier and its Valencia crop is expected to drop 7 percent. Florida's production is expected to drop 5 percent from the previous year's crop, with the greatest decline expected in the early- to mid-season crop. Drought conditions and cold weather in Florida throughout most the growing season contributed to the reduction in its expected crop size. Both Arizona and Texas are expecting bigger orange crops this year. All of Arizona's increase is projected to be in the Valencia crop, with navels 14 percent down this year. Texas is expecting a larger early- to mid-season orange crop, up 23 percent, with the Valencia crop remaining unchanged at 8,000 short tons. California's Crop Smaller but Quality Better in 2000/01 California's orange crop is projected to reach 2.2 million tons this year, 12 percent below the 1999/2000 crop. The smaller crop is partly a result of the greater quantity of fruit left on the trees from 1999/2000 while this year's crop was maturing. The Valencia crop is particularly affected by this situation. The fresh oranges stayed on the trees longer than usual last season because of slow movement in the marketplace. A positive side to the reduced number of fruit on trees this year is that fruit had a chance to get bigger. Plenty of rain this past winter also helped produce larger oranges. With the fruit larger this year, and the reported good quality of the fruit, growers should be looking at improved average navel prices over last year. Early in the season (November and December), navel orange prices have been running 5 percent lower than last year, but prices picked up in January and February and should remain strong through early spring when the navel crop is replaced by the Valencia crop. The Valencia orange crop is forecast to reach 938,000 tons in 2000/01, 7 percent below a year ago, but higher than the freeze- reduced crop 2 years ago. The smaller crop should help California growers move their fruit. Last year demand was weak for fresh- market Valencias. The Valencia oranges compete with all the summer fruit in the markets, including the more desirable navel oranges imported from the Southern Hemisphere during the summer months. The weak demand lowered average grower prices from $10 per 75-lb box during March through December 1998/99 to $3.65 per box for the same period in 1999/2000, a 64-percent decline. With the smaller crop this year, supply may be more in line with demand and grower prices should improve. Fresh orange exports are up this marketing year (November- December), increasing 64 percent over the same period a year ago. Exports increased to all major markets, with Asian markets strong. Canada remains the major market for U.S. fresh oranges, although its share of total exports fell from 44 percent in 1999/2000 to 34 percent during the first 2 months. Japan, so far this year, accounted for 13 percent of the international market, declining from 18 percent last year. Exports increased considerably to other Asian markets, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Since China's market opened last year for U.S. citrus, their share of the market rose from about 1 percent to 7 percent so far this year. If Hong Kong's imports are included with China's (since much of the shipments to Hong Kong are transshipped to the mainland), this area accounted for almost 30 percent of U.S. shipments in November and December and makes it the second most important market for U.S. fresh oranges after Canada. With China's market still in its infancy and a strong demand for American products in China, the future looks good for U.S. orange exports to China. Fresh orange imports declined 55 percent in 2000 compared with 1999. Imports were down from Mexico, Spain, the Caribbean, Israel, and Morocco. Shipments from these countries, which produce oranges during the same season as the United States, were high during the early months of 1999 to compensate for the short California crop in 1998/99. Since California's crop improved in 1999/2000, there was less demand for these imports. Despite the reduced demand for imports in 2000, however, shipments from the European Union, Israel, Turkey, and Morocco were substantially above levels from 2 years ago. The United States is a highly desirable market for much of the world, and it appears that since these countries have made inroads into the U.S. markets, their presence is growing. Also increasing their presence in the U.S. market for fresh oranges are Southern Hemisphere countries that can produce the more desirable navel orange at a time when they are not produced in the United States. Australia leads as a major source of navels during our summer months, however South Africa is quickly becoming a major competitor, as is Argentina. The presence of the navel oranges in the U.S. marketplace during the summer of the 1999/2000 season was an important factor contributing to the slow movement of Valencia oranges from California and Arizona, according to industry sources. As a result, a larger than normal quantity of fruit remained on the trees later than they usually do, affecting the size of this year's crop. Weather Factors Hamper Florida's Crop Florida's orange production is expected to be 4 percent below a year ago. Lack of rain and cold temperatures for much of the season caused fruit size to be below average. This year's drought has had a greater impact on Florida's orange production than a freeze early in January. The colder weather in Florida around the time of the freeze prevented a shock to the fruit and trees and minimized the potential damage than would normally occur. Growers also were irrigating extensively due to the drought, and irrigation helped warm up the groves and protect the fruit. The freeze may result in increased fruit droppage which would affect the Valencia crop more than the early- to mid-season oranges which have been mostly harvested. By the end of February less than 4 percent of the early- to mid-season crop remained to be harvested. Valencia harvesting had only just begun a few weeks prior. Fruit movement was above last year but similar to 2 years ago when the crop was 20 percent smaller. About 4 percent of the crop went to fresh use, similar to previous years. The remainder of the fruit went to juice. Orange juice production is forecast at 1.4 million single- strength equivalent (sse) gallons, down 4 percent from last year but 16 percent above 2 years ago (table 5). Juice-yield projections in February rose to 1.58 gallons per box, up from 1.55 gallons in 1999/2000. Despite the expected smaller level of production in 2000/01, juice supplies are predicted to be up 1 percent from last year. Record-large beginning stocks in October, the beginning of the new marketing year, coupled with an expected increase in imports without much change forecast in exports, resulted in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection for orange juice supplies to total 2.4 billion sse gallons. According to industry data, movement has been strong so far this year, especially for chilled orange juice. As of mid-February, chilled juice movement was up 18 percent from last year, and 16 percent above 2 years ago. The strongest movement has been in bulk sales, with the share of bulk sales of chilled juice usage increasing relative to retail sales over the past few years. Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) movement is up slightly from last year, but was slow compared with 1998/99. Orange juice consumption is expected to be up this year due to the larger supply and movement from a year ago. For the 2000/01 marketing year, annual per capita consumption is estimated to be 6.01 gallons, 2 percent higher than a year ago. Florida's Department of Citrus estimated in October that 59 percent of fruit would go into making FCOJ this marketing year (table 6). While the portion of the crop going to FCOJ would be 8 percent higher than last year, the actual number of boxes would be 4 percent fewer than last year due to the smaller crop. Demand for fruit by processors should increase as harvesting of the Valencia crop picks up. The USDAs forecast for juice yields from Valencia oranges is 1.65 gallons per box as of March. The strong demand for the small crop should push prices up, benefiting growers. Prices have been low in the beginning of the season as processors try to reduce stocks (table 7). With juice demand above a year ago, however, the demand for fruit should grow, driving up prices. Orange juice exports are down for the first 2 months of the marketing season (October-December). Exports to Canada and Belgium, the two major export markets for U.S. orange juice, have been higher than a year ago to date, however, they are down to the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea, also important markets. A decline in FCOJ exports accounted for the decline. Exports of chilled juice have been running about 13 percent above a year ago to date, with a growth rate of 12 percent a year since 1996 during the October-December period. Canada is the largest market for chilled orange juice. Most of the rest of the shipments go to the European Union by way of Belgium. Imports are down 21 percent so far in 2000/01 over a year ago (October through December). Shipments from Brazil were 37 percent lower than a year ago. The large stocks coming into this year, along with fruit maturing earlier this year than last, reduced the demand for imported juice. To help compensate for some of the decline in Brazilian juice, imports from Mexico grew 8 percent from the same period last year, increasing Mexico's share of total imports. Brazil's orange juice production is forecast to be 19 percent below a year earlier (table 8). The drop in production is expected because below-average rainfall resulted in smaller size fruit this year. The large beginning stocks, however, helped buffer supplies. Even so, availability this year is expected to be down about 13 percent. The anticipated reduced supplies lowered the export forecast to 1.6 billion sse gallons, 10 percent lower than last year. Despite the lower availability of juice, FCOJ market prices dropped this year, according to USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service. The price decline was attributed to processors attempting to gain market share. The drop in prices could have an adverse affect on U.S. growers as well as Brazilian growers because of the lower price of Brazilian juice imported into the U.S. market and because of lower world prices. More than three-quarters of Brazilian orange juice exports were shipped to the European Union during the first half of the marketing year; 11 percent was shipped to the United States. Grapefruit Production and Prices Lower in 2000/01 The U.S. grapefruit crop is forecast at 2.6 million tons, 6 percent smaller than 1999/2000, but still larger than the two previous seasons (table 9). The Florida crop, which accounts for 80 percent of U.S. production, is expected to decline 8 percent. The cool, dry winter in Florida this year limited growth. Fruit size is the third smallest in the last 10 years. The small size and lagging maturity levels of the fruit have slowed utilization through February. While March is the time of year when grapefruit are usually processed, processors have been holding off on harvesting, until the solids-to-acid ratio increases, producing sweeter fruit. This year, 60 percent of the crop remained to be harvested by mid-February, compared with 56 percent of the crop remaining at the same time last year, and 43 percent remaining in 1998/99. Texas, Arizona, and California are all expecting to have bigger grapefruit crops this year over a year ago. Texas, the second largest grapefruit producer, is projected to have a 10-percent larger crop in 2000/01. The color, sweetness, and overall quality of the fruit are reported to be excellent. California's crop is projected to be 3-percent larger than in 1999/2000, and Arizona's crop 18 percent larger. Both States report good fruit quality, which should help prices during the late spring and summer when most of their fruit is marketed. Grower prices in Florida have fallen after 2 years of increasing prices (table 10). Weak demand in both the fresh market and by processors have brought prices down. Between September and February, grower prices for all Florida grapefruit dropped 50 percent from the same period. They were 47 percent lower for fresh grapefruit and 117 percent lower for processing grapefruit. Fresh grapefruit prices were also lower than last year for Texas and California. In Texas, prices ranged from a high of $5.55 per 85-lb box in November to a low of $2.35 per box in February. Last year, $5.55 per box was the low price during this time and the high was $13.45 in October 1999. Only Arizona growers have received higher prices for their grapefruit this year. While processors have been slow to harvest grapefruit due to maturity, demand by the industry is also weaker this year as a result of large juice beginning stocks for the 2000/01 season. Stocks for frozen concentrated grapefruit juice had declined by mid-February relative to a year ago, but movement is slow relative to last year. Chilled grapefruit juice movement has also been lower this season. According to ACNeilsen Scantrack, retail sales of grapefruit juice were down during September to February, however, prices averaged higher. Sales of not-from-concentrate grapefruit juice were 11 percent lower than September through mid-February, however, retail prices averaged 1 percent lower. Reconstituted juice sales were running 28 percent behind a year ago, but prices were 12 percent above the same period. Similarly, frozen juice sales were down 32 percent, with prices up 17 percent. Fresh grapefruit exports rose 1 percent from September through December 2000 over the same period the previous year. Exports to Japan were up 2 percent, accounting for 38 percent of the shipments, but down 9 percent to Canada. The slightly stronger Euro, from a year ago, improved trade with the European Union, which accounted for 40 percent of grapefruit exports to date. The largest shipments went to France, the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Shipments to China, the newest market for U.S. fresh grapefruit, is still in its infancy and accounts for 1 percent of exports, the same as last year. Since grapefruit are not as familiar as oranges in China, it may take a few years before this market shows much growth. Large Lemon Crop Bring Down Prices The 2000/01 lemon crop is estimated to total 927,000 tons, the largest crop since 1996/97. If realized, the crop will be 7 percent bigger than last year (table 11). Both California and Arizona are expecting larger crops. California's crop accounts for 86 percent of total production. Fruit quality is reported high with good size and color. The high quality of this year's crop could act as a moderating factor for prices this year. California prices this marketing year (August through February) have averaged $6.62 a 76-pound box, ranging from a high of $16.52 in August to $1.39 in February (table 12). Prices are averaging lower than the last several years, and are 57 percent below a year ago when they were high because of the previous year's freeze. Arizona's prices have averaged $7.54 per box from August through February, 42 percent below the same period the previous marketing year. While the high quality of the fruit is a plus in marketing, the large crop will make it difficult to move the fruit at prices seen the last several years. Lemon exports have been running 5 percent above a year ago for August through December. Exports are sluggish to Japan, a market that accounts for 62 percent of U.S. lemon imports. Shipments to Canada, with its 22 percent share, increased 10 percent over the previous year. Exports to South Korea and Hong Kong, which together account for 11 percent of the market also increased this year. China remains a very small market, with exports down slightly this year over last year. Lemon imports increased 23 percent in 2000 over 1999. Argentina was given approval by USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service to ship to specific States beginning in 2000. Within the year, Argentina's share of U.S. lemon imports rose from 0 to 27 percent. Imports from Spain, the number one supplier for imported lemons in the U.S. market, increased 3 percent in 2000. Chilean imports, which slipped from its number one place to Spain in 1998, fell 13 percent. Much of the Chilean decline last year could be attributed to the introduction of Argentina into the U.S. market. Both countries are in the Southern Hemisphere and their fruit enter the U.S. market during the summer months. The summer is the biggest market for lemons in the United States. U.S. producers look to the summer months to sell most of their crop. With the presence of Chilean and especially Argentine lemons also in the U.S. market competing for market share, U.S. producers may have more difficulties selling their crop this year. Prices can be expected to be below last year as these countries compete over market share. Sunkist marketed Argentine lemons their first year in the U.S. market, but has stated that it will not do so again this year. This might put a slight damper on Argentine sales as they work to create new marketing channels. Smaller Specialty Citrus Crops Expected in 2000/01 Tangerine, Temple, and tangelo production are projected to be lower in 2000/01 than the previous season. The tangerine crop, the largest of the specialty citrus crops, is expected to be 16 percent smaller than last season's record-large crop. It is expected, however, to be larger than the crops for the two seasons prior. Florida's production, the largest in the country, is projected to decline 20 percent to 266,000 tons. Projected declines are smaller in California, with a 3-percent smaller crop and Arizona with a 6-percent smaller crop than a year ago. Despite the drought in Florida, fruit size was good for the early tangerines. The later crop of Honey tangerines, however, may not turn out to be as large as was originally expected. By mid- February, harvesting of early tangerines, Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy, was completed. Honey tangerine harvest was about half completed, running ahead of last year, but on par with 2 years ago. All tangerine prices have been averaging $8.87 a box during October through February, 9 percent above a year ago. Tangerine prices should stay strong for the remainder of the season, as imports decline in the marketplace. Clementine imports continue to grow during the 2000/01 marketing year. Between October and December this year, clementine imports increased 9 percent. The increase in shipments between 1999 and 2000 was the smallest in the last 5 years. Between 1996 and 1997 and again between 1998 and 1999 imports increased 107 percent. Part of the increase in clementine imports between October and December 1998 and 1999 could be attributed to the small supply of U.S. oranges due to the California freeze in 1998/99. Also contributing to the large increase in imports was the expansion of the clementine market to new regions of the United States, beyond the original market in the Northeast. Shipments from Spain account for 98 percent of the imports this year. The more modest growth of clementine imports this year is likely due to Spain's expected smaller production. Despite the smaller crop, Spain's citrus exporters sponsored promotion programs in seven U.S. cities, hoping to expand their presence further in U.S. markets. Noncitrus Fruit 2000 Noncitrus Production Increases from Previous Year The 2000 utilized production of noncitrus fruit was estimated at about 18.2 million short tons, up 5 percent from 1999 (table 14). Many fruit orchards and vineyards in California and Washington, two major noncitrus fruit producing States, experienced generally favorable weather conditions during 2000 that have been conducive to large or higher production. The good performance of many of the fruit crops in these two States balanced out production declines brought by weather problems in other regions. U.S. utilized production increased for grapes, peaches, strawberries, prunes and plums, blackberries, blueberries, raspberries, tart cherries, California figs and kiwifruit, and Hawaiian bananas, papayas, and pineapples. The preliminary estimate of the value of noncitrus fruit production for 2000 was a record $8.1 billion, up less than 1 percent from the previous year (table 14). Much of the increase came from a 17-percent larger grape crop (the most valuable noncitrus crop in the United States) which more than offset the decrease in prices for a net increase of 5 percent in total crop value. Similarly, production increases were also significant enough to compensate price declines for wild blueberries, Oregon raspberries, and Hawaiian papayas and pineapples. Conversely, increased prices more than offset production decreases for an overall increase in the value of production for apples, the second most valuable noncitrus crop in the United States. Meanwhile, higher prices and increased production raised the value of production for peaches, prunes and plums, and California figs and raspberries. Plenty of Fresh-Market Apples in 2000/01, Prices Averaging Lower USDAs National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will report its final estimate of 2000 fresh-market apple production in the United States on July 6, 2001. Based on USDAs January 2001 preliminary estimates, total U.S. apple production for 2000 is 10.6 billion pounds, down less than 1 percent from a year earlier (table 15). The average price for apples received by U.S. growers in 2000 was $300 per ton, about unchanged from a year ago. Although down by a fraction, apple production remained large--averaging 1 percent less than the previous 5-year average. A record-large apple crop was harvested in 1998, totaling 11.6 billion pounds. Total bearing acreage declined 2 percent in 2000, but per-acre yields averaged higher, particularly in the Western States, narrowing the difference in crop size between last year and the year before. Large production declines in the Eastern and Central States more than offset a 12-percent increase in total output for the Western States. Most apple-producing States in the Eastern and Central United States, including all major producers such as New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Michigan, experienced significant production declines. In Washington, the largest producer of apples in the United States, apple production increased 14 percent, from 2.5 million tons to nearly 2.9 million tons. Favorable weather contributed to increased production in Washington and most Western States. Meanwhile, a combination of factors such as freeze damage, poor pollination conditions, hail, and fire-blight problems has resulted in much smaller crops in the other growing regions. Because more than half of the Nations fresh-market apples are grown in Washington, the larger crop there will likely contribute to increased fresh-market supplies in the United States during 2000/01 compared with the previous year. Consequently, prices for fresh-market apples will likely average lower than a year ago. Prices received by growers for fresh-market apples during 2000/01 thus far (August-February) averaged $379 per ton, down from $387 per ton the same period a year ago. Following the trend in grower prices, retail prices for Red Delicious apples, the most predominant variety produced in Washington, also averaged lower, at $0.88 per pound from August through December 2000, compared with $0.93 per pound the same period in 1999. USDA reports fresh apple stocks in cold storage as of February 1, 2001, were up 2 percent from the same time last year, totaling 4.1 billion pounds. Of this total, 87 percent were in controlled atmosphere storage and the remainder in regular cold storage. Stocks in controlled atmosphere storage were up 4 percent, while those in regular storage were down 9 percent. According to the U.S. Apple Association, total movement of fresh- market apples as of February 2001 was 1 percent ahead of the same period in 2000, and 3 percent greater than the 5-year average for February. Increased movement could be attributed mainly to sharply increased movement of Northwest apples (Washington, Idaho, Oregon), as shipments were down significantly in the other apple-growing regions. The U.S. Apple Association also reports that fresh-market apples in storage as of March 1, 2001, were up 6 percent from March 2000, while processing apple stocks were 3 percent lower. By region, apple stocks were higher in the West (up 14 percent) and lower in other regions: Northeast (21 percent), Southeast (22 percent), and Midwest (24 percent). Of the fresh-market apples in storage, 41 percent were Red Delicious, and there were 2 percent more of this variety in storage than at the same time a year ago (but 5 percent less than the previous 5-year average). Stocks of fresh-market Golden Delicious were down 4 percent and fresh-market McIntosh apples, grown mostly in the Northeast, were down 35 percent. Meanwhile, stocks of fresh-market Granny Smiths were up 5 percent. Also, fresh-market stocks were up significantly for Fujis (up 78 percent) and galas (up 49 percent). Increased fresh-market supplies and lower U.S. prices are resulting in fewer imports and larger exports of U.S. fresh apples during the 2000/01 season. Also bolstering exports this season is the continued improvement in Asian economies, several of which are key export markets for U.S. apples. Imports thus far (August through December 2000) were down 19 percent from the same period a year ago. At the same time, exports have already shown a 50-percent increase despite larger world supplies, with shipments to major destinations such as Taiwan, Mexico, Canada, and Hong Kong, all up substantially. 2001 Strawberry Shipments Likely To Recover Freezing temperatures in late December and early January slowed the progress of Floridas 2001 winter strawberry crop. Shipments from November 12, 2000, through January 13, 2001, as reported by USDAs Agricultural Marketing Service-Market News, were 39 percent behind last year. While no major damage to fruit was reported, the prolonged cold weather delayed bloom. As growers flooded their fields to protect the plants and immature fruit from the freeze, wet fields also slowed the harvest. Besides cold weather, harvesting also progressed at a slower pace due to a shift to later producing varieties. Although shipment volume picked up by mid-February, overall shipments through early March were still down significantly from last year. Floridas strawberry season typically runs from November through April (at times extending through May), with peak volume usually during February and March, and tapering off in April when larger supplies from California become available. Both planted and harvested acreage for this years winter strawberry crop is forecast at 6,500 acres, up 3 percent from last year and 5 percent above 2 years ago. The increase in acreage, however, will not be able to compensate for the lower shipment volume thus far. Production of this years winter crop is expected to fall short of the States record-large crop of 220.5 million pounds in 2000. As of January 16, 2001, f.o.b. prices in Central Florida (shipping-point basis) averaged $12.75 per flat of 12, 1-pint baskets of medium and medium-large berries, up from $8.50 to $12.50 a year earlier. Although higher than the previous season, prices have declined seasonally this winter from a high of $26.75 to $28.75 in late November 2000 to $11.75 to $12.75 as of mid- February. Based on the annual acreage survey conducted by the California Strawberry Commission, strawberry acreage statewide in 2001 is expected to decline about 5 percent from a year ago. Despite the slightly smaller acreage devoted to strawberry production this year, increased plantings of the Diamante and Aroma varieties, fairly new varieties that are ever-bearing and high-yielding, are expected to make up for some of the reduced acreage and keep production near last years record-high crop of 1.5 billion pounds. These two varieties, developed by the University of California-Davis, are replacing the Selva variety, a late-season variety that has relatively lower yields and lower quality. California harvests the largest strawberry volume, growing an average of 83 percent of the U.S. total (table 16). For this year, cumulative shipments (January-February) of fresh strawberries from California were running 24 percent behind the same period a year ago. January shipments, in particular, were lagging 43 percent. In the same month, f.o.b. prices (shipping point basis) per flat of 12, 1-pint baskets of strawberries from the South District of California were mostly $18.75, up from the range of $12.50 to $13.75 reported for January 2000. A relatively cold winter this year has slowed development of the crop as opposed to a relatively early start to the season last year when mild temperatures hastened crop maturity. Also, storms that passed the southern California growing regions this winter have disrupted field activities. Rains in February affected the quality of some fresh-market berries, resulting in a diversion of some berries to the processing sector for juice or other processing uses. Although total shipments for February exceeded those of the same period last year, volume was down significantly at the end of the month. With improved weather, growers are optimistic that their strawberry crops could get back to full production. Heavy shipments are expected during Californias peak season (April-June), with enough volume for Mothers Day and Easter retail promotions. As of February 26, 2001, f.o.b. prices ranged from $14.75 to $16.80, with a reported wide range in quality. Prices are expected to continue to decline as shipment volume gains momentum. Expectations of continued abundant domestic supplies, along with reduced world supplies, will help boost the export potential of U.S. strawberries in 2001. Avocado Production To Be Up Sharply in 2000/01, Prices To Fall NASS releases the official U.S. avocado crop estimate for the 2000/01 season on July 6, 2001. However, based on estimates from the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service (FASS) and the California Avocado Commission (CAC), domestically-grown avocados will likely be in abundant supply this year with the harvest of approximately 236,500 short tons. If realized, this seasons production will be up 29 percent from the previous season and up 31 percent from the previous 5-year average (table 17). Utilized as an indicator of total production, certified shipments from the Florida 2000/01 crop was estimated by FASS to be 25,000 tons, up 19 percent from the previous season and the largest crop harvested since the 1991/92 season. Floridas avocado cropland escaped the cold weather and freezing temperatures that affected much of the State this winter, resulting in a crop free of leaf or fruit damage. Last year, production was curtailed by loss of fruit due to the strong winds from Hurricane Irene that passed through the Homestead area on October 15, 1999. The quality of the fruit also deteriorated after the storm, resulting in a lot of fruit drop, particularly large-size fruit. Although most of Floridas commercial avocados mature from June through March, the heaviest shipments usually run from August through December. Through January 2001, approximately 99 percent of the estimated certified shipments had been shipped. California avocado growers will likely harvest the States second largest avocado crop since 1992/93. Over 85 percent of the Nations avocado crop is produced in California, where the harvest usually begins in November and continues to the following November. Recent rains have helped fruit to size better, increasing the volume of large size fruit which was in short supply earlier during the season. Based on 2000/01 estimates from the California Avocado Commission, Californias production is expected to exceed last years crop by more than 20 percent. Most of the production is in the following counties: San Diego (46 percent of output), Ventura (20 percent), Santa Barbara (14 percent), Riverside (13 percent), and Orange (4 percent). Among the commercially-grown varieties, Hass avocados remain the most predominant, with approximately 93 percent of the plantings concentrated in San Diego county. Hass avocado production is estimated to account for 90 percent of Californias 2000/01 avocado output. Because overall domestic supplies in 2000/01 are anticipated to exceed last season, avocado prices are likely to average lower. So far, 2000/01 California shipments from November to late February have been running 10 percent ahead of the same period in 1999/2000. Most of Californias shipments usually occur between March and August. In February, f.o.b. prices (shipping-point basis) per two-layer carton of Hass avocados in Fresno, California ranged from $29.25 to $30.25 for size 48s and $19.25 to $23.25 for size 60s. In comparison with last year, prices for size 48s averaged $46 and for size 60s averaged $43. Despite a significantly larger U.S. crop, strong consumer demand and the strong U.S. dollar will likely attract more avocado imports into the United States for the 2000/01 season. More than half of the import shipments come from Chile, but Mexico is also an important supplier with 1999/2000 shipments up sharply from the previous season. For the 2000/01 season, the Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Chiles avocado production to increase 11 percent from the previous season (due to favorable weather and new orchards coming into production) and exports to increase 14 percent. In Mexico, because avocado exports continue to be profitable, exports are forecast to increase 56 percent despite a 26-percent reduced crop. Mexicos crop is expected to be smaller due to unfavorable weather and intentional delays in harvesting to avoid market saturation and declining Mexican avocado prices. Increased U.S. supplies and reduced production in most avocado- producing countries, including Mexico, the worlds largest avocado producer, point to increased U.S. avocado exports in 2000/01. New markets for U.S. avocados will also aid the export picture. Chile, a large producer of avocados, opened its market to U.S. avocados on December 1, 2000. Previously, U.S. avocados were barred from entry into Chile due to pest concerns. The final rule allowing U.S. avocados into Chile was announced by the Agriculture and Livestock Service (SAG) of the Chilean Ministry of Agriculture on September 29, 2000. Under the rule, U.S. avocado shipments into Chile should have a phytosanitary certificate and be inspected by SAG officials. Market access into Chile will offer significant opportunities to U.S. avocado exporters, particularly at a time when the industry is faced with one of the largest crops ever harvested. Industry sources estimate the Chilean market to have a market potential of about $2 million annually, over one-fourth the average value of U.S. avocado exports to all destinations during 1996/97-1998/99. If this estimate holds true, this could position Chile as the second largest market for U.S. avocados. Currently, the Netherlands, Canada, and Japan are the top three markets for U.S. avocados, with over 70 percent of total export value. Because Chile is located in the Southern Hemisphere, its production is on alternate seasons with the United States, reducing the likelihood of direct competition between the two countries. In addition, Mexico, the worlds largest avocado producer, currently is denied the privilege of shipping their avocados into Chile due to phytosanitary concerns. Stone Fruit Crops Developing Early, Abundant Supplies and Good Quality Likely Early indications point to another strong crop of California peaches and nectarines in 2001, according to industry sources. Abundant supplies of good quality peaches and nectarines are expected, but this same situation may not hold true for plums. Heavy rains in early March hampered bee activity and restricted pollination, particularly for early plum varieties that were already in full bloom. Unlike plums, setting crops during the wet weather was not a problem for some of the early varieties of peaches and nectarines that were also in bloom then because of their self-pollinating nature. While bud and bloom counts indicate the prospects of a full crop for peaches and nectarines this year, weather in the next several weeks will determine the final crop. In general, stone fruit orchards in California received well over 1,000 chill hours (the amount of time the temperature is below 45 degrees Fahrenheit) as of early February, according to the California Tree Fruit Agreement (CTFA). Although still below the average of 1,146 chill hours, it was sufficient for the trees to achieve full dormancy. Hence, the trees are more likely to produce fruits that are less susceptible to pests and diseases, less prone to bruising, and have a longer shelf life. Orchards received beneficial rains this winter, but the amount of rainfall is still slightly below average in spite of the heavy rains that occurred in early March. Because most of the orchards are equipped with water pumps and wells, sufficient moisture requirements were still met. Concerns about possible water supply shortages in Californias stone fruit growing region, however, were alleviated somewhat by the recent rains that slowed fieldwork but further improved high-elevation snow packs and spring runoff prospects. Rolling blackouts experienced throughout much of California this winter were not much of a threat to California stone fruit orchards because the trees were all dormant. Rolling blackouts, however, continuing through the spring and summer, will be worrisome to stone fruit growers for a number of reasons. Irrigation schedules will be interrupted since most of the irrigation equipment is run by electricity. None of the packinghouses have generators, which could cause temporary disruptions in packing operations. Consequently, these would result in higher costs and reduced productivity because workers will be paid for the hours when work is temporarily halted and they will also have to be at the packinghouse longer than usual to finish a full days work. Stone fruits also require much of the field heat to be removed prior to shipping in order to preserve quality. Because many cold storage facilities do not have generators, the pre-cooling process will be slowed and consequently cause disruptions in shipment schedules as it directly affects the number of trucks that can get loaded. As of the second week of March, early varieties of plums, peaches, and nectarines were in bloom and in general, these varieties were developing 3 to 5 days ahead of last year. Earlier in the growing stage, it appeared that the timing of this seasons stone fruit development was going to be about 5 to 7 days ahead of last year. Very cold weather, especially in late January, slowed crop development. A strong growing season may put downward pressure on stone fruit prices this summer. However, if export markets remain strong as they had last year, the downward pressure on prices could be moderated. U.S. exports of fresh peaches (including nectarines) and fresh plums were up 15 percent and 12 percent from a year earlier last year. Japan also opened its market for the first time to U.S. fresh nectarines last year. However, because it was late in the season when the market opened, domestic supplies were already scarce and only a small volume was shipped. This year, the Japanese market will open for U.S. nectarines around June 15, according to CTFA. This is earlier in the U.S. stone fruit season, making supplies more available for shipments, granted export quality requirements are met. Chilean Fruit Imports To Grow During 2001 Chilean fresh fruit shipments to the United States (mostly from the months of November through March) have seen remarkable growth during the 1990s. In particular, among Chiles major export products to the United States, fresh shipments of avocados, apples, kiwifruit, berries (including strawberries), and mangoes were up sharply in 2000 from shipments during 1991 (table 18). Fresh grape shipments, the largest single U.S. fruit import from Chile, grew 25 percent during the same period. Relative to 1999, fresh shipments were all up, except for stone fruit, pears, and kiwifruit, as unseasonably heavy rains adversely affected yields and lowered the quality of these crops. Favorable weather throughout most of Chiles fruit-growing season has benefited the countrys production of apples, pears, table grapes, avocados, stone fruit, and kiwifruit for the 2000/01 marketing season. Improvement in both yields and quality for most of these crops point to the prospects of increased Chilean fruit exports this year. Most Chilean fruit shipments to the United States, therefore, are expected to be up from a year ago. Also fueling the growth in Chilean shipments to the United States is the devaluation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar, which is making the European market, Chiles largest export market for fruit, unattractive to Chilean fruit exporters. Chilean exporters are shifting some of the fruit shipments that would normally be bound for the European market to the United States where they receive higher prices. Grapes are Chiles biggest export crop and more than 50 percent are shipped to the United States. Chile produces over 36 varieties for export, with Thompson seedless, Flame seedless, and Ribier making up the bulk of production. Planted acreage seemed to have stabilized over the years with more recent plantings done only to replace aging vineyards. These new plantings are mostly new varieties that better reflect market demand, such as the Red Globe variety. According to USDAs Foreign Agricultural Service, Chiles fresh table grape harvest for the 2001 marketing season is expected to increase 4 percent from a year ago, to 975,000 metric tons--the second consecutive year of growth. Production will also expand this year as new vineyards come into production. About 61 percent of this output will be exported, with outgoing shipments up 4 percent from a year earlier. Cumulative U.S. imports of fresh grapes thus far (November-December 2000) are up 82 percent from the same period a year ago. Shipments are running a week earlier than last year as warm weather in the northern growing regions of Chile caused the fruit to mature faster. The good supply and quality of this years fruit should result in increased promotions this winter for table grapes, and that should result in lower retail prices. From November 2000 through January 2001, U.S. retail prices for Thompson seedless grapes, the only retail price for grapes reported by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, averaged 3 percent lower than the average of the same period a year ago. Chile is the largest major foreign supplier of avocados to the U.S. market. U.S. avocado imports from Chile increased to a record 113 million pounds in 2000 compared with 1999, reflecting increased production as a result of good weather conditions and more new orchards reaching bearing age (table 18). With similar factors affecting production expansion in 2001, imports are expected to increase again this year. U.S. imports thus far (November-December) are already up 103 percent from the same period a year ago. The United States continues to be the destination for virtually all of Chiles avocado exports. Despite reduced production in Chile during 2000, U.S. apple imports rose 2 percent from the previous year as Chilean exporters took advantage of more attractive prices in the United States relative to prices in the European market. With excellent growing weather, prospects appear strong that Chiles apple harvest will be up sharply for the 2001 marketing season. In an effort to maintain and expand their export markets, Chilean apple producers continue to plant more new varieties such as Fuji, Gala, Jonathan, and Braeburn that have increasingly become more popular, particularly among their foreign customers. While a majority of Chiles apple exports are of the red varieties, exports of the sweet varieties such as Fujis are increasing in share. Chilean apple exports for the 2000/01 marketing season are also likely to expand as a result of increased production. Unfavorable exchange rates will likely encourage Chilean exporters to continue to divert European-bound apple shipments to non-European markets. Increased fresh-market supplies resulting from the larger Washington crop are lowering U.S. prices. Lower prices combined with larger supplies may limit growth in Chilean fresh apple shipments to the United States during 2000/01. U.S. concentrated juice imports from Chile declined sharply in 2000 from the previous year. Apple juice concentrate imports, the most important of all juice concentrate imports from Chile, fell 37 percent to 40 million gallons, single-strength equivalent, as a result of the sharply reduced Chilean apple crop last year. With the larger apple harvest expected in Chile for the 2001 marketing season, apple juice concentrate shipments to the United States may increase, especially since U.S. production of apples for the processing sector will likely be limited by production declines in the Eastern and Central States, whose output is geared mostly for processing. In addition, although the quality of the Chilean fresh-market apple crop is expected to be good, increased world supplies, including larger fresh-market supplies in the United States, will likely cause some diversion of Chilean apples to the processing sector. Chile relies heavily on export markets for its apple juice concentrate (AJC) product, little is consumed domestically. Traditionally, processing plants received the rejects of apples destined for the export markets. With increased global competition, efforts are now being geared towards improving the quality of Chiles AJC product. Apple producers are being encouraged to expand existing production of sour-type varieties and to increase plantings of new varieties. Tree Nut Outlook Tree Nut Production Declined in 2000/01 Tree nut production was 16 percent lower this year due to the alternate bearing nature of nut trees. Production was down for all nut crops except pistachios. Pistachio production reached a record 243 million pounds in 2000/01, 98 percent higher than a year ago. Bearing acreage was up for all the major California nut crops--almonds, pistachios, and walnuts. Macadamia nut bearing acreage in Hawaii, and hazelnut bearing acreage in both Washington and Oregon declined for the third straight year. The smaller crops resulted in higher season-average grower prices for almonds, hazelnuts, and pecans. Despite a smaller crop in 2000/01, macadamia nut growers received lower prices for their crop, as did pistachio nut growers with their large crop drawing down prices. The higher prices received for the almond crop helped boost crop value to $1.6 billion, 5 percent higher than the previous year. Almonds accounted for 53 percent of nut production in 2000/01. (Value for the walnut crop was derived using current year production with the previous year's average price. Price estimates for the 2000/01 walnut crop will be available July 6, 2001.) The large pistachio crop was also a factor in the higher value, despite the fall in prices. The grower price increase for the hazelnut and pecan prices were not sufficient to offset the greater decrease in crop size. As a result, revenues from the 2000/01 hazelnut crop totaled $23 million, 35 percent lower than the previous year. Pecan revenues dropped 31 percent to $227 million. Large carryin stocks for almonds this year (August through February) helped offset the smaller crop, and supply totaled 884 million tons (shelled), slightly lower than last year's record crop. Domestic sales (including commitments) were lagging slightly behind last year, and exports were up fractionally, according to the Almond Board of California. Domestic sales accounted for one-third of all almond shipments through February. Shipments were down to the major European markets, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The recovery of the Asian markets, on the other hand, increased sales to China, India, and Japan. The 2001/02 almond crop is underway as the trees have begun to bloom. While California has been experiencing more than usual rainfall this winter, there have been enough good days to provide sufficient bee activity for pollination. There has been some weather-related damage this winter, and some areas may experience smaller crops. However, because almond production is so widely distributed through central California, weather-related damage is expected to be localized. Since this is an on year for almond production, the crop is expected to be larger than last year, although the industry does not expect a record crop. The official USDA almond forecast for 2001 will be released in NASS' Crop Production report May 10, 2001. Beginning stocks for walnuts were up 5 percent in 2001. The slightly larger stocks were not sufficient to offset the 16- percent decline expected in production, and supplies this year are projected to total 312,997 tons, 12 percent lower than last year. The tighter supplies should help push up grower prices this year. The Walnut Marketing Board reported shipments this marketing year from August to January to be up 4 percent for shelled walnuts, but down 21 percent for inshell. Only about one- fifth of inshell walnuts are consumed domestically. About three- quarters of the supply of shelled walnuts, however, are consumed in the domestic market. Exports of inshell walnuts to Spain, the major market, have been running higher than a year ago, but were down to Germany and Italy. Exports of shelled walnuts rose to the top markets, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. The California pistachio industry celebrates its 25th year of commercial production this year, according to the California Pistachio Commission. Since the first commercial crop in 1976, pistachio production has increased from 1.5 million pounds on fewer than 1,500 acres to 243 million pounds on 74,600 bearing acres in 2000. The industry has prospered due to healthy domestic and international demand for the high-quality U.S. pistachios, as well as the international embargo on Iran, the world's largest pistachio nut producer. Domestic pistachio consumption has been growing through the late nineties at the expense of exports. Domestic shipments rose from 63 percent of all shipments in 1998/99 to 70 percent in 1999/2000. This year, however, exports have been strong, and the share of total supply has increased. Exports of open-inshell pistachio nuts have risen to Europe, particularly to Germany, Belgium, and Italy, as well as to Japan and Canada. Despite strong demand for pistachios so far this year, the record crop has pushed prices to the lowest level since 1995. The pistachio crop is likely to be smaller this coming year, especially with such a large crop in 2000/01, which should help prices to recover. END_OF_FILE