FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT -- SUMMARY December 1, 1998 December 1998, GFA-10S Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. 20036-5831. This report is issued annually. The complete text of FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT (GFA-10) will be available about a week following release of this summary. Subscriptions to the published report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #GFA-10. Copies of a single issue are to be determined. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Food Gaps Continue To Widen for Low-Income Countries Food production shortfalls continue to threaten the food security of low -income countries. The food security of these countries is evaluated by measuring the gaps between actual food consumption (domestic production, plus commercial imports, minus non-food use) and consumption targets, and projecting the gaps through the next decade. The targets are: 1) maintaining per capita food consumption at 1995-97 levels, and 2) meeting minimum recommended nutritional requirements. In addition, an attempt was made to estimate food consumption by different income groups within each country. In 1998 the food gap to maintain per capita consumption at 1995-97 levels in 66 low-income developing countries is estimated at 11 million tons, up from 8.5 million estimated for 1997. The gap to meet minimum nutritional requirements is estimated to be substantially higher at 17.6 million tons, compared with 15 million last year. Weather-related production shortfalls are expected to account for about 15-40 percent of these food gaps. The 66 countries in the study either have been or may become food aid recipients. In the projections, however, the availability of food aid is excluded. Therefore, depending upon future food aid availabilities, some or all of the projected food gaps can be eliminated. Over the coming decade, the food gaps with respect to both consumption targets are projected to widen. The gap to maintain per capita consumption increases 80 percent to 19.8 million tons in 2008, while the nutritional gap expands 61 percent to 28.4 million. In 2008, food consumption is projected to fall short of the nutritional requirement in 35 countries, while 47 countries are expected to face a decline in per capita food consumption. Unequal purchasing power within countries exacerbates food insecurity in the 66 countries. Not surprisingly, people in lower income groups have larger nutritional gaps than their wealthier counterparts. Moreover, the ratio of food consumption to nutritional requirements of the lowest income quintile is much lower than the national average. In Sub-Saharan Africa, food consumption by people in the lowest income quintile is estimated to equal only 72 percent of the minimal nutritional requirement in 1998. The corresponding figures for Latin America and the New Independent States are 78 and 80 percent, respectively. For the 66 countries as a whole, the "distribution gap" (the amount of food required to bring consumption of each income quintile up to the minimal nutritional requirement) is expected to rise more slowly over the next decade than the country-level averages. Nevertheless, the "distribution gap" is projected at 38.4 million tons in 2008, significantly larger than the 28.4 million estimated using country-level averages. The growth of the "distribution gap" does not simply stem from more people becoming food insecure. In fact, the number of people failing to meet nutritional requirements is projected to grow 6 percent to 1.14 billion by 2008. The gap's growth therefore implies that nutritional problems related to income distribution will intensify more than they will spread. The two regions projected to face a deteriorating nutritional situation over the next 10 years are Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. In Asia, however, the deterioration is negligible. Moreover, the region's consumption relative to nutritional requirements starts at a higher level. Conversely, the deterioration is measurable in Sub-Saharan Africa and consumption starts at a lower base. In this region, only the highest of the five income groups is projected to consume at a level above the minimum nutritional requirement, compared with the top three groups in Asia. Changes in the "distribution gap" confirm the severity of food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa. For other regions, this gap declines or increases negligibly by 2008. But for Sub-Saharan Africa the gap jumps more than 50 percent. Selected countries of Latin America and North Africa depend heavily on food imports, which currently provide around 40 percent of their consumption needs. Food imports in both regions are projected to remain at this level or increase slightly during the next decade. Financing this volume of food imports, however, could become difficult unless the real prices of Latin America's and North Africa's export commodities recover from their current lows. Of the five New Independent States included in the study, only Tajikistan and Azerbaijan are projected to be vulnerable to food insecurity in 1998. In the next decade, assuming continued peace, Azerbaijan is projected to eliminate its food gaps, but Tajikistan will continue to face substantial food deficits. This issue of Food Security Assessment (GFA-10) contains two special articles related to food security. The first examines the link between imports and food security, and the second assesses agricultural productivity and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Printed copies of Food Security Assessment will be available in about 4 weeks. For more information, contact Shahla Shapouri and Stacey Rosen at 694-5166. Text of the full report will also be available via the ERS Website at www.econ.ag.gov. END_OF_FILE