WORLD FOOD AID NEEDS AND AVAILABILITIES--SUMMARY             October 18, 1995
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.
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      Food Aid Needs and Availabilities: Projections for 2005
 
World Food Aid Needs Likely To Double by Next Decade
 
Food aid needs will nearly double over the next decade, even with optimistic
assumptions about recipient countries' ability to produce their own food or
to have the financial capacity to import food commercially.  Total food aid
needs to maintain consumption and meet emergency needs for refugees are
projected at 15 million tons in 1996, increasing to 27 million tons by 2005. 
More food aid would be required if recipient countries' financial capacity to
import food commercially lagged or if the consumption target was to meet
minimum nutritional standards. 
 
There is a looming mismatch between food aid resources and needs. In the
past, food aid availability averaged about 70 to 80 percent of the needs. 
This will not be true in the future.  If global food aid budgets are
maintained at 1995 levels, the gap between needs and resources will grow
rapidly.  Factors limiting resources include changes in agricultural policies
that will reduce surpluses and reductions in aid budgets in donor
countries.
 
In this study, food aid needs are defined as the amount of grain needed to
fill the gap between what a country can produce plus its financial capacity
to import commercially, and a targeted consumption level.  Both chronic and
emergency food aid needs are considered.   Projections are made for food aid
needs under four alternative scenarios.  The "benchmark" scenario maintains
per capita consumption at current levels and assumes an optimistic financial
capacity to import commercially.  The other three scenarios (maintain
consumption with low commercial imports and achieve nutritional standards
with high and low imports) all result in higher food aid needs. 
 
Most food aid needs will be chronic and will be in Sub-Saharan Africa.  Food
aid needs in Sub-Saharan Africa will double even under the most optimistic
scenario.  Africa's needs by 2005 will exceed the projected supply of food
aid.  The forces behind chronic needs are rapid population growth, slow
growth in agricultural productivity, and slow overall economic growth. 
Emergency needs, arising from production variability and political turmoil,
are only 20 percent of total needs.  
 
Projections of total food aid needs are built from a country-by-country
analysis of chronic and emergency needs in 60 traditional food aid recipient
countries and an aggregate estimate of emergency needs in the rest of the
world.  About a fifth of the 60 countries will have no food aid needs, even
under the scenario that assumes meeting minimum nutritional standards and
slow growth in commercial import capacity.  About half of the countries have
food aid needs even under optimistic conditions.  These countries generally
have sustained economic or political problems, and all except Haiti,
Nicaragua, and Afghanistan are in Sub-Saharan Africa.  In the remaining
countries, food aid needs are more sensitive to economic and agricultural
performance.  Countries that have undertaken economic policy reform and
adjustment are better positioned for improved economic growth. 
 
The projected increasing gap between food aid needs and availabilities is
caused primarily by the rapid growth in needs and secondarily by the
assumption that food aid budgets of donor countries are maintained at 1995
levels.  For the benchmark scenario, global production capacity is projected
to produce adequate supplies of grain; year-to-year variability is to be
expected, however.  
 
Printed copies of Food Aid Needs and Availabilities: Projections for 2005
(GFA-6) will be available October 19.  A summary of Food Aid Needs Assessment
(GFA-7), with  projections for 1995/96 and 1996/97,  will be released on
November 17.  For more information, contact Margaret Missiaen (202) 219-0652.
 
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