FOOD AID NEEDS ASSESSMENT -- SUMMARY November 21, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of FOOD AID NEEDS ASSESSMENT (GFA-8) will be available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Improved Harvests Lead to Lower Food Aid Needs Sixty-five developing countries would need 9 million tons of grain food aid in 1996/97 to maintain per capita consumption at the average of the last 5 years (status quo target). These needs are 35 percent lower than estimated for 1995/96 due to good harvests in many regions and a forecast decline in world grain prices that is expected to boost commercial import capacity. Nutritional food aid needs, which are much higher than status quo needs, also are estimated to be lower than last year. Food aid needs are defined as the amount of grain needed to fill the gap between what a country can produce plus its capacity to import commercially, and two consumption targets--maintaining consumption at the level of the last 5 years and achieving a minimum nutritional standard. This season's grain harvest recovery by major grain producing countries will result in some modest replenishing of global stocks. However, food aid supplies among donor countries have continued to decline. An estimated 7.7 million tons of grain food aid were donated in 1995/96, down from 9.2 million in 1994/95. Food aid donations are expected to remain near the 1995/96 level in 1996/97, which would cover about 85 percent of projected status quo needs. With higher global grain production in 1996/97, world grain prices are forecast to decline from the record highs of 1995/96. However, grain prices are expected to remain volatile, which could hamper imports. Sub-Saharan Africa's status quo food aid needs of 3.4 million tons are down sharply from last year's 6.2 million tons, due to a record grain harvest. Grain production is up markedly in Southern Africa due to expanded plantings and favorable weather. Other Sub-Saharan regions increased their production as well. East Africa's food aid needs are down from last year's 3 million tons to 1.5 million and Southern Africa's are down from 1.5 to 0.4 million tons. Food aid needs remain high in West Africa at 1.3 million tons. Nutritional food aid needs are proportionately much higher in East Africa, where undernutrition remains a severe problem. While reduced warfare in Ethiopia and Mozambique has helped decrease Sub-Saharan Africa's status quo food aid needs, other countries that continue to suffer from war or civil strife show high food aid needs. North Africa has no food aid needs this year primarily due to a large recovery in grain production, which increased from 18.4 million tons to 31.2 million. The largest increases were in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. For the nine Asian countries included in this report, 1996/97 grain production is expected to reach a record of 303 million tons. Status quo food aid needs are down from 4.6 million tons in 1995/96 to 3.5 million due to strong economic growth, favorable agricultural policies, and good weather. However, severe undernutrition in some parts of Asia place nutritional food aid needs much higher at 10.3 million tons. Bangladesh and Afghanistan have the region's highest food aid needs. However, food aid is not required in the foreseeable future in India, Indonesia, or Vietnam. For the 10 low-income Latin American countries in the assessment, status quo food aid needs are estimated at 0.8 million tons of grain for 1996/97, down from 1.4 million in 1995/96. Grain production increased slightly from 9.9 to 10.1 million tons. Strong economic growth, particularly in many of the countries' export sectors, also contributed to reduced food aid needs by allowing greater commercial purchases. Last year's report introduced discussions of food aid needs in the former Soviet Union (FSU). This year, food aid needs were estimated for five of the republics. Estimation was difficult due to rapid changes in income, agricultural supply, and food consumption patterns. Status quo food aid needs could be as high as 1.2 million tons for the the five republics. The food situation in North Korea and the former Yugoslav republics could not be assessed in the framework of ERS models due to inadequate data. However, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), North Korea faces a severe food shortage and needs 1.5 million tons of grain to avert a famine. FAO estimates that North Korea has obtained about 58 percent of these needs by barter agreements and food aid donations. The republics of former Yugoslavia have experienced declines in their wheat production, but are not expected to have food aid needs other than humanitarian assistance. The second part of Food Aid Needs Assessment consists of three papers on food security in selected countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. A country's food security is defined as access to adequate amounts of food by the entire population. While the existence of food aid needs on a country level is an unmistakable indication of food insecurity, even countries without food aid needs can fail to guarantee food security for all. In Sub-Saharan Africa, per capita food consumption declined in the last decade despite increased food aid. Unless domestic grain production improves dramatically, food consumption is expected to decline further in the next decade. In the countries studied in Asia and Latin American, food security indicators have generally improved. However, a large part of the populations still live in hunger, and food insecurity remains a significant problem, mainly due to skewed income distributions. Printed copies of Food Aid Needs Assessment (GFA-8) will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information, contact Michael Trueblood (202)-0652. Text of the report also will be available electronically. For details, call ERS Customer Service (202) 219-0515. END_OF_FILE