FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT -- SUMMARY November 24, 1997 NOVEMBER 1997, GFA-9RS Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. 20036-5831. This report is issued annually. The complete text of FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT (GFA-9) will be available about a week following release of this summary. Subscriptions to the published report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #GFA-9, $15.00. Copies of a single issue are $15 each. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Food Gap Is Projected To Widen Over the Next 10 Years The food gap to maintain consumption is projected to increase from 8.5 million tons in 1997 to 18 million tons by 2007 for the 66 countries studied here. Many low-income countries are unable to meet minimum nutritional requirements of their people, and this nutritional food gap is projected to grow from 15 million tons in 1997 to 24 million tons by 2007. But even within countries that have enough food available, low-income households often do not have the means to purchase their minimum requirements. This report projects food availability for 66 countries during the next decade. Projections are based on long-term trends and policies that are currently in place. The results are also used to project consumption by income group to analyze the severity of nutritional problems within the countries. The report includes an overview section which provides a global and regional outlook of food security. Four research papers discuss topics related to food security. The topics include the institution of outward-oriented policies to achieve efficiency in resource allocation, regional policy initiatives in Southern Africa, resource use and implications on the environment, and factors to reduce income inequality. Statistical tables for each of the countries included in the model are also provided. Since 1995, global food security has become a high profile issue as a result of concerns stemming from a spike in grain prices in 1995 and a decline in world grain stocks. The trends in policies of major agricultural producers are toward market orientation and greater awareness of environmental concerns. The expected implications of these trends together with strengthening economic growth in many developing countries are lower stockholdings, primarily in the United States, and a slowdown in the long-term decline in real commodity prices. Some are also concerned with the potential for increased price variability. Food import-dependent developing countries view the strengthened food import prices and the possibility of reduced food aid availability as a major threat to their food security. Responding to these concerns at the declaration of the World Food Summit in November 1996, participants pledged "to reduce the number of undernourished people to half their present level no later than 2015." The question that arises from these issues is, are these low-income countries moving along the necessary path to improve their nutritional situations in the long term? The evaluation of future food availability of low-income developing countries, although extended only through 2007, indicates that per capita food consumption in many countries will decline, leading to growing gaps. When the total amount of the projected food availability is allocated among different income groups in each country, the result showed a slight increase in the number of people who cannot meet their nutritional requirements--from 1.1 billion in the base year to 1.2 billion by 2007. Regional comparisons of projections of food gaps place Sub-Saharan Africa as the most vulnerable region with respect to food security. By 2007, this region is projected to account for about half of the total gap (66 countries) to maintain consumption and 66 percent of the gap to meet its nutritional needs while its population comprises only 25 percent of the total. The main problem in the region is high population growth, which puts pressure on food supplies. In addition to inadequate food availability, skewed distribution of purchasing power amplifies the nutritional problem in the region. The number of people who cannot meet their nutritional requirements is projected to increase from 303 million in the base year to 526 million by 2007. This means the region, projected to account for 25 percent of the population of the study countries, will have about 44 percent of the undernourished people. Low-income Asian countries, with the second largest food gap, have made significant gains in increasing food availability over the past 3 decades. Most Asian countries may be able to close their food gaps by increasing imports. The region's impressive gains, however, mask food problems in large segments of the population, where purchasing power is insufficient. Although, the number of people who cannot meet their nutritional requirements is projected to decline by 25 percent over the next decade, the region is projected to account for about half of the undernourished people in the study countries. In Latin America, the most difficult dimension of food security is the distribution of food within each country. The number of people who cannot meet their nutritional requirements is projected to increase 55 percent between the base period and 2007. Highly skewed distribution of income limits purchasing power and access to food for low-income households which, in turn, intensifies food security problems. North Africa is the only region with adequate resources to meet its nutritional needs. However, frequent droughts often affect each country's economic growth and welfare. The current level of food consumption is among the highest in the world and is projected to increase in all countries except Egypt. Political instability would be the only threat to food security in the region and could cause serious problems in a country such as Algeria. Food consumption in the New Independent States (formerly referred to as the former Soviet Union) is projected to increase because of economic recovery, improved export performance, and higher food production. Only the war-torn economy of Tajikistan will likely remain vulnerable to food insecurity and is projected to have a significant food gap on a consistent basis. Printed copies of the Food Security Assessment Situation and Outlook will be available in about a week. This issue contains four special articles. "World Food Insecurity: A Policy Dilemma," "Can Regional Policy Initiatives Help Achieve Food Security in Southern Africa?," Resources Sustainability and Food Security," and Income Inequality and Food Security." For more information contact Stacey Rosen 202-694-5164. The text of the report will also be available electronically, for details call 202-694-5050. END_OF_FILE