------------------- ldp-m-13.asc follows -------------------- Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook Economic Research Service LDP-M-13 U.S. Department of Agriculture January 23, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports of all major animal products rose in 1994, but devaluation of the Mexican peso, the drought in Oceania, and the earthquake in Japan add uncertainty to 1995 export projections. In 1994, Mexico was a fast-growing market for U.S. meats and livestock. Mexican market shares of U.S. exports are: turkey, about one-half; pork, over a fourth; beef, about an eighth; and broilers, less than a tenth. Peso Devaluation To Limit Exports to Mexico The devaluation of the Mexican peso is expected to affect U.S. meat and livestock trade with Mexico. The reduced value of the peso will act as a tariff on imported meat and livestock by effectively raising their prices. In addition, the devaluation will slow economic growth and income gains, which could shift consumption from the higher valued products, that Mexicans increasingly consumed as incomes rose, to low value meats and other lower priced foods. At the consumer level, increased meat prices and lower real incomes (if the wage stabilization package is enforced) likely will reduce Mexico's demand for imported meat. However, demand for high value products for the tourist, hotel, and restaurant trade likely will remain nearly unchanged. Based on a sharply lower value of the peso and much slower economic growth, U.S. meat exports to Mexico in 1995 will decline 15-40 percent from 1994. Also, U.S. exports of animals for slaughter likely will decline by about 50 percent. U.S. beef exports to Mexico are forecast to decline 10 to 20 percent from 1994, and pork could decline 25 to 35 percent Although pork consumption has been on the rise, Mexicans consume more beef and poultry. If Mexican pork producers liquidate their inventories in response to higher costs and lower demand, increased domestic meat supplies could lower demand for U.S. products. U.S. poultry exports to Mexico could decline 15-20 percent from 1994 due to the peso devaluation and resulting lower incomes. Under NAFTA, poultry was granted a tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 95,000 metric tons, which was to increase 3 percent this year. Over-quota quantities are subject to tariffs up to 250 percent this year. In 1994, the Mexican Government permitted poultry imports, including mechanically deboned meat (MDM), (primarily turkey) to enter without being assessed the high duty. Although poultry exports are expected to decline in 1995, there still will be demand for MDM and other low value poultry products that should continue at relatively high levels. Mexican livestock producers also will be affected by the devaluation through higher input costs and possibly reduced demand if consumers shift away from meat. Rising costs will have a greater impact on pork and poultry production. These industries rely heavily on imported feedstuffs, primarily soybean meal and sorghum, although corn-feeding has been increasing. Most beef produced for domestic consumption is grass-fed and should be less affected by changes in grain prices. Because Mexican poultry production is more highly concentrated and integrated, it could better withstand an increase in feed costs. The industry could receive additional support if the Mexican Government imposes the over-quota duty on imported poultry. However, production likely would stagnate if not decline under these conditions. U.S. dairy product exports to Mexico should decline about 10 to 15 percent due to the devaluation of the peso. Higher value dairy product exports will decline by a higher percentage, while subsidized products still could increase from 1994, particularly non-fat milk. Pork Production To Remain Record Large U.S. pork production will remain record large in 1995, but the estimate was revised down based on the December Hogs and Pigs report. Year-to-year expansion is expected to continue through the third quarter, and then drop off as the March-May pig crop reaches slaughter weight. Even then, fourth- quarter production will be the second largest on record. Lower slaughter supplies beginning in mid-December restored prices to the mid- to upper-$30 per cwt range. But first-quarter 1995 prices are only expected to average near $36, about $10 below last year, because supplies are about 7 percent above first-quarter 1994. Only slight seasonal price gains are expected this spring as production continues at a record pace based on a 1-percent increase in the September-November pig crop. The supply outlook for the second half of the year remains uncertain. Farrowing intentions for December-February were revised down 4 percent in December from the initial estimate in September. The number of sows farrowing this winter will be down slightly from a year earlier based on the December survey, and will continue to drop off during March-May. Price weakness during the past quarter encouraged some liquidation of breeding herds, but with relatively cheap feed and a more upbeat outlook on hog prices, fourth-quarter 1995 production still could be adjusted upward. Stronger cash hog prices since mid-December and a stable cutout value have narrowed the live-to-wholesale spread, but it still is well above the previous 5-year average. Record wholesale-to-retail spreads reported during October-November have narrowed as retail prices shifted sharply lower in December, but the spread still is relatively wide. Additional modest declines over the next two quarters are expected. Pork freezer stocks remained at record levels on January 1, and while declining seasonally from their summer peak, remained 19 percent above last year. The increase reflected large fourth-quarter production and generally weak prices. Inventories typically build during the fourth quarter, followed by a net outflow of product in the spring as reduced slaughter weights and tighter hog supplies lead to seasonal price gains. Price advances this year may be muted, however, by seasonally large production in the first quarter and continued large supplies of competing processing meats. Hams currently are trading about 10 cents per pound below last year and likely will hold this discount even as prices begin to increase seasonally leading up to Easter. The January Cold Storage report showed a large drawdown in December, but freezer inventories still are near record high. Cattle Markets Strengthen Good retail beef movement over the holidays and the need to refill pipelines led to stronger prices across the beef complex in early January. Fed cattle prices rose to $74 per cwt by mid-month as packers were forced to raise bids to meet retail commitments. Some uncertainty remains on passing these higher prices on to consumers as slaughter levels remain large and slaughter weights continue near record levels. On balance, U.S. beef exports are likely to expand this year, but uncertainty has increased with the Mexican peso devaluation, drought in Australia and New Zealand, and an earthquake in Japan. Most of the product shipped to Mexico is lower valued cuts and offal products used in the processing market. These products averaged near $1.24 a pound during January-November 1994. Retail sales will decline because of reduced consumer purchasing power. However, exports of high quality beef for the tourist, hotel, and restaurant trade likely will remain little changed. Reduced demand in Mexico may partially be offset by increased shipments to Japan. However, the Japanese earthquake in mid-January that destroyed a major port of entry will cause at least temporary disruptions in distribution. Drought has reduced Australian fed beef production and the U.S. and Canada have expanded fed beef supplies to fill the gap. U.S. stocker-feeder cattle imports from Mexico could increase to nearly 1.3 million head in 1995 due to the peso devaluation. This would represent an increase of 10-15 percent over 1994. Imports in first-half 1994 were about unchanged from a year earlier, but third-quarter imports were down nearly 50 percent, and October-November imports were 234,432 head, down 134,374 head, nearly 40 percent from a year earlier. Broiler Production Increasing Chick placements and the hatchery supply flock for broiler-type eggs remain well above 1994, and a 6- to 7-percent expansion appears likely for 1995. Wholesale whole broiler prices are expected to trade below 1994 for most of the year, although dark meat part prices should remain relatively strong because of rising exports. Breast meat prices will continue weaker due to increased production and competition from other meats. Exports to Mexico are expected to decline. Export growth in many markets is expected in 1995, but the rate of expansion is expected to fall substantially below 1994's 40-percent increase. Strength will continue in the Pacific Rim, but additional growth in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe remains more uncertain. Turkey Production Increasing Sharply Large production increases and rising stocks are expected to drive wholesale turkey prices lower over the next few months. Price support from export growth is expected to continue in 1995, but the peso devaluation in Mexico, which accounted for over half of 1994 exports, will cause this market to shrink in the near term. However, other markets, such as Russia, South Korea, and Poland, are growing rapidly and could offset losses in the Mexican market. Egg Market Changing Shell egg prices were stronger than expected in the fourth quarter due in part to strong breaker demand. Sales of egg products are an expanding portion of the egg industry that take over a fourth of egg production. Lower feed costs should keep egg production profitable during the first and fourth quarters of 1995, but substantial periods of losses could be experienced during mid-year. Overall profitability during 1995 should be slightly better than in 1994, with returns of 4-5 cents per dozen, compared with 3.9 in 1994. Egg exports are expected to remain nearly unchanged in 1995 from a year earlier. Trade agreement restrictions will not go into effect before mid- year and may not restrict EEP sales until 1996. Expanding Milk Supplies To Pressure Cheese Prices Strong expansion in milk production is expected to outstrip growth in commercial use and leave first-half milk prices about 10 percent below last year's strong prices. Recent strength in milk output is projected to carry over into a 3-percent first-half increase. Milk per cow will be boosted by more use of bovine somatotropin and better feed quality, while increased farm expansion is expected to keep declines in cow numbers relatively small. Rising cheese prices during early January suggest that price declines the in late autumn were somewhat premature. However, the upward adjustment does not significantly alter projected cheese and milk prices for winter and spring. The November-December cheese price declines, totaling about 12 cents per pound, made it unprofitable to make cheese from nonfat dry milk. Cheese output began to trail sales gains. The 2- to 4-cent price reversal was sufficient to resume augmentation of raw milk with nonfat dry milk. Seasonal rises in milk production probably will send cheese prices lower in coming months. Most regions are expected to have ample spring milk supplies. In addition, nonfat dry milk prices probably will soften once supplies are procured for most of the remaining contracts under the 1994 Dairy Export Incentive Program. First-half surpluses of milkfat and skim solids are expected to be sizable. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Dec-93 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 9,307 7,730 8,509 8,774 Net placements 1,423 2,402 1,768 NA Marketings 1,451 1,623 1,503 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 510,953 499,808 494,511 537,926 Chicks hatched (000)/2 623,255 621,204 596,783 660,000 Hatching egg layers/1 45,479 48,076 47,894 47,603 Pullets placed (000) 5,669 6,342 5,819 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,245 5,299 4,898 4,650 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 31,185 31,313 31,307 32,869 Poults placed (000) 25,307 23,435 24,579 25,513 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / 446 453 446 383 Table egg layers, (000)/1 240,496 243,713 245,266 247,369 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.6 71.2 72.1 72.9 Chicks hatched (000) 30,446 31,764 25,432 30,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 10,955 7,175 7,149 9,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 79.95 78.16 77.74 76.11 Selling price 72.88 69.43 69.35 72.85 Net margin -7.07 -8.73 -8.39 -3.26 N. Central hog farrow to fini Breakeven price /3 44.98 44.99 44.82 44.75 Selling price 44.26 28.51 32.14 37.25 Net margin -0.72 -16.48 -12.68 -7.50 Broiler Wholesale cost 50.70 47.70 47.10 47.20 Wholesale price 52.67 50.50 50.93 51.00 Net margin 1.97 2.80 3.83 3.80 Turkey Wholesale cost 62.10 60.16 59.70 58.70 Wholesale price 59.30 72.81 68.34 60.54 Net margin -2.80 12.65 8.64 1.84 Egg Wholesale cost 70.55 63.40 63.70 64.30 Wholesale price 72.68 74.36 77.08 72.00 Net margin 2.13 10.96 13.38 7.70 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Includes capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 72.88 69.43 69.35 72.85 Nebraska Direct 72.04 68.67 68.34 71.80 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 46.56 38.12 37.95 38.50 Utility boning 42.54 36.69 36.30 38.25 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 94.28 85.66 86.25 86.50 600-650 lb. 86.88 78.88 79.88 79.40 750-800 lb. 83.20 75.19 76.63 77.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 87.85 79.63 79.54 80.40 700-750 lb. 79.73 73.38 73.79 74.35 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 43.73 28.03 31.48 36.70 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 44.26 28.51 32.14 37.25 Sows 6 Markets 35.72 20.48 20.58 20.55 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 34.67 18.21 18.63 25.50 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 56.67 73.60 67.50 68.00 Ewes, Good 40.30 42.45 43.25 41.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 71.06 78.30 74.38 76.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.89 2.04 2.17 2.22 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.00 4.31 4.21 4.02 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 198.44 161.02 156.90 156.10 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 91.80 92.60 92.60 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 67.70 68.80 64.70 NA U.S. Pasture index NA 82.00 NA NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 112.11 106.66 107.22 111.45 Choice 1-3 700-850# 110.08 104.56 105.50 111.35 Select 1-3 700-850# 107.13 97.72 98.10 106.00 Cutter Cow 91.51 72.21 73.17 72.85 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 125.70 102.80 107.14 104.40 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 120.92 108.60 105.00 106.00 Hide & offal value 7.61 9.36 9.70 9.50 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 82.19 92.17 86.00 88.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 59.75 50.82 51.66 53.35 Loins, 14-18 lb. 103.90 80.00 89.50 91.25 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 50.63 29.09 29.29 34.75 Hams, 17-20 lb. 59.52 52.10 50.74 50.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 50.40 32.81 29.88 34.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 141.19 152.25 154.25 146.50 55-65 lb., Choice 131.19 153.65 151.25 142.50 Broilers 12 City Avg. 52.67 50.50 50.93 51.00 Georgia dock 51.54 50.47 50.36 50.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 188.16 156.80 156.47 156.00 Breast, Ribs on 90.40 72.64 72.34 72.00 Legs, whole 43.35 47.96 48.60 50.00 Leg quarters 31.09 30.35 31.22 32.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 59.18 72.56 68.46 32.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 60.09 74.01 70.35 61.00 Drumsticks 31.90 29.92 28.21 28.00 Wings, full cut 29.92 29.80 27.71 27.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 72.68 74.36 77.08 72.00 New York 68.00 68.50 69.26 65.50 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Dec-93 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 288.2 277.9 280.2 279.4 Beef - All Fresh 273.6 264.3 262.2 262.8 Ground Beef 157.4 141.6 137.6 138.0 Rib roast 472.8 452.2 456.3 487.6 T-bone steak 577.3 577.1 585.4 586.3 Pork 201.1 197.3 195.0 188.4 Bacon 201.8 196.5 191.7 189.2 Chops 324.3 318.5 324.8 302.8 Picnic 119.4 111.4 110.5 113.4 Chicken - Composite 146.5 140.1 138.3 136.5 Whole, fresh 91.0 88.9 90.4 89.5 Breast - bone in 216.7 198.1 193.7 190.5 Leg quarter 113.0 114.4 113.4 112.3 Turkey; whole frozen 95.4 105.4 97.2 97.6 Eggs, Grade A, Large 87.1 81.0 85.7 87.3 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 145.8 149.5 149.7 149.7 All food 142.7 145.0 145.3 146.8 All meat 135.9 135.0 134.6 133.7 Beef & veal 137.7 135.3 134.5 134.7 Pork 133.1 133.7 133.4 130.1 Poultry 141.1 141.5 140.2 140.4 Dairy Products 130.2 131.5 131.7 131.6 Fluid milk & cream 131.1 131.5 131.8 132.0 Manufactured products 129.8 132.2 132.2 131.8 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 18.3 22.4 22.1 22.3 Wholesale to retail 117.6 118.7 116.4 115.1 Farmers share (%) 53.0 49.0 51.0 51.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 38.6 40.9 42.6 38.2 From gwl1@cornell.edu Tue Feb 28 08:26 EST 1995 Received: from ALBERT.MANNLIB.CORNELL.EDU by oldal.mannlib.cornell.edu with SMTP (16.6/15.6) id AA25131; Tue, 28 Feb 95 08:26:35 -0500 Return-Path: Received: from [128.253.78.51] by albert.mannlib.cornell.edu with SMTP (1.37.109.4/16.2) id AA07712; Tue, 28 Feb 95 08:24:12 -0500 X-Sender: usda@albert.mannlib.cornell.edu Message-Id: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Date: Mon, 27 Feb 1995 20:28:20 -0500 To: usdamail@oldal.mannlib.cornell.edu From: Jim Horsfield (by way of gwl1@cornell.edu (Greg Lawrence)) Subject: Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Update 1/23/95 (LDP-M-13) Status: RO Wholesale to retail 98.4 105.7 108.4 99.5 Farmers share (%) 32.0 26.0 23.0 27.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 31.0 25.7 31.1 NA Turkey 20.4 25.5 13.9 NA Eggs 13.2 17.0 14.2 NA MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jan-93 Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 /* Jan-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 22,942 24,282 1,978 2,021 2,028 Veal 267 283 25 26 25 Pork 17,030 17,662 1,639 1,642 1,504 Lamb 329 304 24 26 23 Total red meat 40,568 42,531 3,666 3,715 3,580 Broilers 22,178 23,858 1,978 2,000 2,010 Other chicken 513 504 39 40 41 Turkeys 4,848 4,979 453 385 380 Total poultry 27,539 29,342 2,470 2,425 2,431 Total meat & poultry 68,107 71,873 6,136 6,140 6,011 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 33,324 34,201 2,809 2,871 2,859 Steers 17,222 18,027 1,366 1,453 1,465 Heifers 9,358 9,593 801 788 801 Beef Cows 3,025 3,021 333 309 286 Dairy Cows 3,061 2,920 257 271 257 Bulls and stags 659 641 52 50 50 Calves 1,195 1,269 117 124 116 Sheep 5,182 4,937 406 426 386 Hogs 93,068 95,717 8,737 8,786 8,140 Barrows & gilts 88,387 90,749 8,274 8,313 7,732 Sows 3,796 4,036 387 391 335 Broilers 6,681,013 7,067,913 577,552 580,000 580,000 Turkeys 276,256 277,549 25,595 20,400 20,400 Jan-94 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 /* Jan-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 715 725 711 711 713 Calves 230 224 219 217 217 Sheep 64 60 61 61 60 Hogs 185 186 189 188 185 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 401.0 401.8 410.6 419.5 418.1 Pork 299.2 352.7 385.4 383.2 357.5 Bellies 53.2 18.3 22.7 40.7 61.6 Hams 32.8 108.7 99.9 63.9 34.0 Total chicken 365.6 435.9 444.6 451.7 472.5 Turkey 249.1 648.6 636.2 280.7 259.9 Frozen eggs 13.7 17.8 20.0 19.1 19.4 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Oct-94 Nov-94 Jan - Jan - Nov-93 Nov-94 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 85,951 69,695 866,231 829,840 New Zealand 22,976 22,184 560,893 493,219 Canada 39,175 35,585 370,467 428,409 Brazil 3,721 1,615 97,241 121,975 Argentina 9,585 12,187 148,258 129,548 Central America 21,927 16,898 200,498 187,476 Other 2,164 2,674 28,685 27,381 Total 185,499 160,837 2,272,274 2,217,848 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 73,818 70,400 662,579 767,195 Canada 26,404 27,525 221,326 254,290 Mexico 20,580 20,433 110,663 201,445 Korea, Rep. 15,152 20,264 103,969 157,533 Caribbean 691 1,109 11,295 9,635 Other 8,328 10,470 55,758 71,348 Total 144,973 150,201 1,165,590 1,461,447 Cattle Imports Mexico 84,211 148,221 1,154,910 934,504 Canada 97,581 64,147 1,143,327 956,535 Over 700 lbs. 91,691 58,153 978,100 894,219 500-700 lbs. 2,466 1,838 92,339 12,653 Total 181,843 212,368 2,298,403 1,891,118 Cattle Exports Mexico 14,114 10,560 72,035 118,746 Canada 13,670 13,063 58,448 83,145 Total 27,852 24,075 138,847 209,574 Lamb Imports Australia 1,567 2,191 21,454 21,263 New Zealand 1,868 1,790 16,201 14,599 Total 3,441 3,982 37,662 35,872 Mutton Imports 456 548 11,306 10,241 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service Monitoring - Import 1/15/94 1/14/95 % Chg Meat Import Law 92,963 3,847 -95.9% Canada 20,509 2,251 -89.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------- Oct-94 Nov-94 Jan - Jan - Nov-93 Nov-94 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 34,095 34,462 367,649 388,382 Denmark 16,363 15,629 209,683 229,490 Poland 664 1,148 12,250 10,134 Hungary 142 996 25,692 17,196 Netherlands 1,283 1,171 21,318 15,469 Other 1,890 2,506 35,056 29,079 Total 54,437 55,913 671,648 689,750 Pork Exports Japan 26,429 24,725 204,863 222,306 Canada 6,502 5,768 33,925 47,672 Mexico 15,606 15,562 78,790 133,798 Caribbean 1,074 1,599 8,055 7,193 Other 9,272 17,948 46,258 64,120 Total 58,884 65,602 371,892 475,089 Hog Imports Head Canada 86,726 82,225 757,007 818,854 Under 110 lb 37,575 40,418 260,818 361,860 Total 89,569 82,405 759,188 824,531 Hog Exports Total 19,203 28,166 39,394 101,687 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 28,689 32,949 216,460 238,819 Mexico 16,960 22,353 168,713 200,801 Hong Kong 74,654 71,338 430,768 628,174 Singapore 5,055 5,723 51,453 59,448 Canada 6,711 7,151 79,122 71,439 Former USSR 112,429 88,481 161,218 710,146 Total 314,985 284,225 1,724,586 2,562,573 Turkey Exports Mexico 10,760 18,227 127,109 126,863 S. Korea 2,767 1,312 17,411 21,014 Hong Kong 815 651 6,499 6,178 Total 20,011 28,635 189,739 215,343 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 13,161 8,806 92,333 102,649 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Dec-93 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,461 10,707 10,383 10,826 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,054 8,010 8,000 7,991 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,299 1,337 1,298 1,355 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,427 12,769 12,383 12,911 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.50 13.10 13.10 12.90 Milk for fluid use 13.60 13.10 13.10 13.00 Manuf. grade milk 12.50 12.30 12.00 11.60 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.51 12.29 11.86 11.38 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 69.7 71.5 71.5 67.0 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 133.7 135.4 127.9 121.3 Barrels 128.8 129.7 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 112.7 107.0 107.1 106.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,238 1,530 1,481 1,462 Nonfat dry milk 1,388 1,886 1,870 1,800 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 17.1 18.4 11.0 9.7 Commercial American cheese 360.2 310.2 312.2 311.3 Other cheese 98.8 141.7 135.2 124.4 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 55.3 97.7 93.0 89.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,579 4,611 4,374 4,215 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,332 5,890 5,745 5,540 All Government (mf. basis) 5,860 3,271 2,549 1,478 All Government (ss. basis) 185 469 483 391 Nov-93 Sep-94 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 97.3 90.6 101.5 101.8 American cheese 225.7 245.2 243.1 240.1 Other-than-American cheese 314.4 318.7 330.8 320.9 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 79.0 96.0 85.3 82.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 6,972 7,603 7,662 7,371 Nonfat dry milk 56.9 79.9 86.0 86.0 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 110.0 96.4 104.1 92.6 American cheese 234.2 261.5 238.4 240.8 Other-than-American cheese 350.3 351.0 365.0 364.3 Nonfat dry milk 13.3 79.2 63.0 57.5 All products (mf. basis) 12,384 12,830 12,849 12,395 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter -10.2 -3.2 0.9 10.9 Cheese 0.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 Nonfat dry milk 44.1 23.2 28.3 32.4 All products (mf basis 2/) -190.0 -21.0 68.0 282.0 All products (ss basis 2/) 535.0 315.0 373.0 417.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 300 243 245 296 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1992 1993 1994 1995 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 4,986 5,135 5,336 5,486 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.1 2.7 2.8 3.3 Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 3.4 3.0 4.3 5.9 10-Year Bond,% 7.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 Production, million lb. Beef 22,968 22,942 24,282 24,475 Pork 17,184 17,030 17,661 17,925 Broilers 21,052 22,178 23,858 25,400 Turkeys 4,829 4,848 4,979 5,290 Total Red Meat & Poultry 67,193 68,107 71,881 74,178 Eggs, mil doz. 5,885 5,960 6,153 6,240 Milk 151,648 150,954 154,178 158,168 Commercial use (mf basis) 142,081 145,350 150,787 153,750 Net removals (mf basis) 9,936 6,653 4,824 5,722 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 66.5 65.1 67.6 67.9 Pork 53.1 52.3 53.1 53.8 Broilers 66.6 68.3 70.1 73.8 Turkeys 18.0 17.8 18.1 18.8 Total Red Meat & Poultry 208.4 207.6 212.5 218.0 Eggs, number 234.8 234.2 237.6 238.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 75.36 76.36 68.8375 65-70 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 81.76 86.46 77.72 71-76 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 44.84 47.52 42.805 38-41 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 43.03 46.10 40.0575 37-39 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 52.60 55.18 55.7125 51-55 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 60.20 62.55 65.65 59-63 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 65.40 72.53 67.25 64-68 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.09 12.83 13.0325 11.7-12.5 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.88 11.80 12.005 10.7-11.5 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,324 1,275 1,576 1,640 Beef & veal imports 2,440 2,401 2,387 2,485 Pork exports 407 435 525 495 Pork imports 645 740 744 730 Broiler exports 1,489 1,966 2,730 3,020 Turkey exports 171 212 229 260 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,402 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,744 6,044 6,378 6,116 Pork 4,182 4,240 4,326 4,913 Broilers 5,674 5,983 6,160 6,041 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,297 Total Meat 16,974 17,802 18,469 18,636 Eggs, mil doz. 1,498 1,513 1,547 1,595 Milk (mf basis) 37,692 39,973 38,398 38,115 Commercial use 35,292 37,681 39,690 38,124 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (240) 849 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.7 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 17.2 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.5 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.2 54.2 55.6 Eggs, number 58.3 58.2 59.5 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 66 68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76 75 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 43 38 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 41 31 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 56 52 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 67 73 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67 67 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 13 13 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 12 12 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 410 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 515 Pork exports 104 115 131 175 Pork imports 205 206 168 165 Broiler exports 571 698 694 767 Turkey exports 52 60 54 63 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,439 5,471 5,505 5,538 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.9 10-Year Bond,% 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.7 Production, million lb. Beef 5,975 6,100 6,325 6,075 Pork 4,475 4,325 4,425 4,700 Broilers 6,150 6,350 6,500 6,400 Turkeys 1,200 1,315 1,395 1,380 Total Meat 18,074 18,371 18,911 18,822 Eggs, mil doz. 1,545 1,555 1,555 1,585 Milk (mf basis) 39,072 41,045 39,278 38,773 Commercial use 35,525 38,625 40,200 39,400 Net removals 3,255 1,797 25 645 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 17.0 17.1 17.4 16.4 Pork 13.4 13.1 13.3 14.0 Broilers 18.1 18.5 19.0 18.2 Turkeys 3.8 3.9 4.5 6.6 Total Meat 53.4 53.5 55.1 56.0 Eggs, number 59.6 59.1 59.0 60.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66-68 66-70 63-69 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72-74 70-76 72-78 71-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 37-39 39-41 38-42 37-41 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 35-37 37-39 38-42 36-40 Broiler,12 City 51-53 51-55 52-56 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern 57-59 57-61 60-64 63-69 Eggs, New York 66-68 59-63 63-69 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.2-12.4 11.2-11.9 11.4-12.4 12.3-13.3 Milk, M-W 10.9-11.1 10.2-10.9 10.7-11.7 11.2-12.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 385 410 425 420 Beef/veal imports 690 655 630 510 Pork exports 130 125 110 130 Pork imports 180 190 180 180 Broiler exports 675 745 730 870 Turkey exports 52 66 65 77 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994