Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook Economic Research Service LDP-M-15 U.S. Department of Agriculture March 23, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------- Meat Export Growth To Continue U.S. meat exports likely will increase in 1995, but reduced exports to Mexico will slow the rate of growth. Pacific Rim countries will remain a strong market for both red meat and poultry exports. Exports to Canada and Russia also are expected to climb. Exports to Mexico, the fastest growing market for red meat and turkey exports in 1994, will decline in 1995. The devaluation in the peso, which makes imported products more expensive, and increasing inflation likely will force Mexican consumers to reallocate their budgets to cover increasing staple food, debt service, and energy costs. During the past few years, Mexican consumers responded to reduced governmental control in the economy and the prospect of increased purchasing power by making large credit purchases at variable interest rates. Many of these consumers now find themselves with interest rates approaching 80-100 percent. As the economy slows and incomes fall, many consumers likely will lower their meat expenditures. Exports of high quality meat cuts for the tourist markets should continue along with lower value trimmings and offal for sausage. But intermediate value cuts for home consumption that have become popular in recent years could see dramatic declines. Pork is more widely used in processing, but could face increased competition from domestic production if producers liquidate herds in response to higher feed costs. In addition, pork for processing continues to face pressure from commutated poultry exports. However, if the Mexican Government applies a tariff to poultry imports over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) as specified under NAFTA, demand for processing grade pork will not decline as much. Mexican poultry and pork producers are lobbying the government to enforce the poultry TRQ. Currently, U.S. prices for lower-end products and variety meats are low enough to move into Mexico. Beef Production To Pressure Prices Beef production will continue to rise this spring and summer, likely pressuring fed cattle prices below $60 per cwt at times this summer. Although the number of cattle on feed remain below last year, many of the cattle to be marketed this spring and summer will be slaughtered at heavier weights. Steer and heifer weights during February were near record high, and likely will continue near record levels. Net feedlot placements in February were record large, following large placements in January. However, additional supplies still are available for placement this spring, and are being supplemented by larger stocker-feeder cattle imports from Mexico. Continued drought in Australia is adding to domestic beef supplies as frozen processing beef continues to enter the U.S., despite lower prices. Prices for frozen imported processing beef dropped below $100 per cwt in March, the lowest since the late 1980's. Domestic lean beef trimmings prices also have declined sharply. Beef exports to Mexico are declining because of the peso devaluation. However, exports to Pacific Rim countries are expected to increase, particularly given the weak dollar relative to the yen. Broiler Weights Lighter Than Expected Broiler production expansion continued in March, but at a slower pace than expected. Early March slaughter data indicate that birds are coming in 1-2 percent lighter than last year rather than 1-2 percent heavier as projected earlier. March slaughter is running about 7 percent above a year earlier, in line with January chick placements. Whole broiler prices have strengthened seasonally since January, but remain about 4 cents per pound below 1994. Strong export sales, reportedly to Russia, have supported leg quarter prices near last year's levels, while fast food promotion of wings has pushed prices nearly 30 percent higher. Broiler exports are forecast to reach 3.2 billion pounds, about 13 percent of production and a 12-percent increase from 1994. Continued economic growth in Asia and the weakness of the dollar against some Asian currencies should increase demand for U.S. poultry. Turkey Supplies Record Large Easter turkey supplies are forecast to be record large. Increased production, up nearly 10 percent in the first quarter, and flat export sales are boosting domestic supplies. March turkey prices are about unchanged from last year, despite increased supplies. The introduction of rotisserie turkey breast entrees in restaurants and grocery delis likely is providing additional support. Turkey thigh meat exports to Mexico will be sharply reduced because of the devaluation of the peso. However, Mexican buyers may be switching from turkey parts to lower priced ground product or chicken leg quarters, which may account for some of the recent wholesale price strength in those items. Large Egg Supplies For Easter Per capita egg supplies for Easter will be the largest since 1989. March production is expected to increase 1-2 percent from last year due to a larger flock. Flock productivity will be nearly unchanged due to the aging flock. Egg prices were about 10 cents per dozen below last year in mid- March, but should increase toward the end of March as retailers purchase supplies for Easter. Increased production and Easter falling nearly two weeks later in 1995 are affecting the price differential. Hog Prices To Weaken In the first quarter, lower prices have been required to move 7 percent more production than a year earlier. The declines appear to be distributed about equally among producers, processors, and retailers, with all three sectors likely remaining at least marginally profitable. Seasonally lower production during April and May should help offset weaker retail demand, but prices still are expected to trend lower. Additional production declines during June and July will push prices higher, but advances may be limited to the low $40's per cwt. Futures prices on the summer contracts appear to have anticipated these gains, adding nearly $2 per cwt over the past several weeks. Current premiums over the cash market are historically wide and offer producers an opportunity to more than cover production costs. Premiums also have been offered on fall contracts since late 1994, which could affect farrowings during March-May. Farrowing intentions were reported down 6 percent on December 1, but given better profit prospects since the survey, smaller declines are possible. The March Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on March 31, will provide additional information on production prospects during the remainder of the year. Lamb Prices Show Seasonal Strength Carcass lamb prices continued to trend higher in March as retailers secured supplies for Easter/Passover. Slaughter lamb prices likely have already peaked and should begin to trend lower over the next several weeks as seasonal demand dissipates. Both live and wholesale prices have averaged well above last year's depressed levels as first-quarter production remains nearly 10 percent below 1994. Both live animal and wholesale carcass prices have traded near the first quarter of 1993, and are expected to show a similar pattern through the rest of the year. Seasonal price declines this summer should not be as sharp, however, as slaughter supplies will approach last year's low levels. A more modest decline of $10 per cwt from current levels would hold prices in the mid $60's per cwt this summer, and provide a solid base for seasonal gains next fall. Lamb and mutton production is forecast near 285 million pounds for the year, the lowest on record, and down 6 percent from last year. Commercial Use of Dairy Products To Increase Continuing economic growth and steady retail dairy prices are expected to boost commercial use of dairy products in 1995. Sales of skim solids are projected to grow about 2 percent, with domestic commercial use of milkfat rising at about the same rate. However, unsubsidized butter exports are projected to add about 1 percent to the increase in commercial milkfat use. Larger cheese, butter, and fluid milk sales are expected in 1995. Cheese sales got off to a fast start this year, and commercial use of butter will be boosted by exports, even if domestic sales slow as expected. Commercial use of nonfat dry milk may be unchanged or lower than last year. Projected ample Midwest milk output will reduce nonfat dry milk use in cheese production. Surpluses of milkfat and skim solids are projected to stay below 4 percent of production. However, slightly larger surpluses of skim solids are expected to push farm milk prices 2 to 5 percent below 1994. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 9,232 8,914 8,865 8,866 Net placements 1,280 1,491 1,637 1,541 Marketings 1,501 1,540 1,636 1,481 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 504,769 537,926 534,462 536,954 Chicks hatched (000)/2 557,767 658,456 661,389 595,000 Hatching egg layers/1 46,724 48,255 49,218 49,645 Pullets placed (000) 5,518 6,413 5,748 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,261 4,856 4,528 4,400 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 33,859 32,689 34,881 35,095 Poults placed (000) 25,103 25,540 27,038 25,923 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / 398 464 452 405 Table egg layers, (000)/1 240,057 247,537 246,866 244,281 Table eggs/100 layers/1 70.1 72.9 72.2 70.0 Chicks hatched (000) 31,056 28,575 31,527 31,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9,197 9,378 9,905 8,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 76.67 65.69 65.54 67.66 Selling price 75.41 73.60 73.79 71.85 Net margin -1.26 7.91 8.25 4.19 N. Central hog farrow to fini Breakeven price /3 39.71 38.62 37.95 37.59 Selling price 44.58 37.96 39.60 38.45 Net margin 4.87 -0.66 1.65 0.86 Broiler Wholesale cost 51.25 47.20 47.40 47.70 Wholesale price 57.51 51.14 51.73 52.50 Net margin 6.26 3.94 4.33 4.80 Turkey Wholesale cost 65.53 59.00 58.80 59.20 Wholesale price 60.39 60.54 58.08 59.50 Net margin -5.14 1.54 -0.72 0.30 Egg Wholesale cost 70.60 64.30 64.80 64.90 Wholesale price 80.13 72.64 71.76 73.00 Net margin 9.53 8.34 6.96 8.10 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 75.41 73.60 73.79 71.85 Nebraska Direct 74.85 71.97 72.55 71.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 47.48 40.26 42.63 42.00 Utility boning 46.72 38.79 40.63 40.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 102.69 86.75 88.28 83.25 600-650 lb. 91.41 79.88 76.91 75.50 750-800 lb. 81.31 76.50 72.53 68.25 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 93.63 79.31 77.66 78.00 700-750 lb. 78.78 73.50 69.44 65.65 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 43.97 37.68 39.03 38.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 44.58 37.96 39.60 38.45 Sows 6 Markets 40.60 26.92 31.11 33.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 47.33 27.74 31.79 43.50 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 61.19 65.38 75.08 75.25 Ewes, Good 39.60 35.60 41.75 30.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 66.60 75.60 82.69 80.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.76 2.22 2.27 2.36 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.64 4.00 3.93 3.84 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 194.96 156.40 151.96 155.50 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 97.30 92.10 94.20 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 68.50 66.80 64.00 NA U.S. Pasture index NA NA NA NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 115.03 112.17 111.12 108.50 Choice 1-3 700-850# 113.63 112.08 110.46 108.00 Select 1-3 700-850# 111.21 107.22 108.25 106.25 Cutter Cow 93.89 73.63 76.63 74.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 128.44 104.29 108.38 103.25 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 131.80 105.19 105.75 99.00 Hide & offal value 7.72 9.51 9.35 9.42 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 87.75 80.50 79.60 85.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 60.96 53.72 56.38 55.05 Loins, 14-18 lb. 100.45 96.94 102.20 96.70 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 49.68 36.03 35.80 37.00 Hams, 17-20 lb. 64.27 46.40 54.34 52.90 Trimmings, 72% fresh 49.52 34.59 35.25 36.37 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 142.25 147.50 150.00 156.50 55-65 lb., Choice 137.05 142.50 147.25 154.50 Broilers 12 City Avg. 57.51 51.14 51.73 52.50 Georgia dock 54.79 50.50 50.64 51.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 191.11 156.77 159.17 157.00 Breast, Ribs on 91.62 72.74 80.76 78.00 Legs, whole 48.78 50.01 50.85 51.00 Leg quarters 35.04 32.24 32.85 34.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 61.09 61.05 58.55 60.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 60.98 60.71 58.54 60.00 Drumsticks 42.78 27.89 32.20 29.00 Wings, full cut 34.04 26.91 30.00 34.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 80.13 72.64 71.76 73.00 New York 74.41 65.20 64.30 67.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 284.9 279.4 282.6 284.3 Beef - All Fresh 269.9 262.8 262.0 263.7 Ground Beef 155.5 138.0 138.1 142.6 Rib roast 476.0 487.6 495.8 499.1 T-bone steak 570.8 586.3 579.7 583.8 Pork 199.9 188.4 191.4 189.9 Bacon 201.9 189.2 193.0 193.0 Chops 326.6 302.8 316.0 314.4 Picnic 112.4 113.4 109.9 110.2 Chicken - Composite 146.6 138.7 138.9 141.2 Whole, fresh 88.8 89.5 89.7 89.3 Breast - bone in 212.8 190.5 192.5 194.3 Leg quarter 111.4 112.3 111.2 114.6 Turkey; whole frozen 99.1 97.6 98.0 99.1 Eggs, Grade A, Large 90.3 87.3 88.2 86.3 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 146.7 149.7 150.3 150.9 All food 142.9 146.8 147.5 147.4 All meat 136.0 133.7 134.9 134.9 Beef & veal 136.9 134.7 135.8 136.6 Pork 134.1 130.1 132.2 131.8 Poultry 140.4 140.4 140.2 141.4 Dairy Products 131.8 131.6 132.7 132.1 Fluid milk & cream 132.6 132.0 132.4 131.9 Manufactured products 131.7 131.8 133.5 132.9 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 17.2 22.3 21.7 19.1 Wholesale to retail 112.2 115.1 110.9 113.9 Farmers share (%) 55.0 51.0 53.0 53.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 31.5 38.2 32.1 31.1 Wholesale to retail 91.8 99.5 100.3 96.9 Farmers share (%) 38.0 27.0 31.0 33.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 26.2 30.6 30.6 29.6 Turkey 29.7 20.3 28.5 32.0 Eggs 18.5 12.2 17.6 16.5 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Mar-94 Mar-95 Jan-95 Feb-95 /* Mar-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 5,744 5,917 2,009 1,808 2,100 Veal 71 77 27 24 26 Pork 4,181 4,475 1,500 1,440 1,535 Lamb 86 77 24 24 29 Total red meat 10,082 10,546 3,560 3,296 3,690 Broilers 5,674 6,119 2,039 1,880 2,200 Other chicken 126 125 42 39 44 Turkeys 1,091 1,199 389 380 430 Total poultry 6,891 7,443 2,470 2,299 2,674 Total meat & poultry 16,973 17,989 6,030 5,595 6,364 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 8,161 8,443 2,869 2,584 2,990 Steers 4,137 4,231 1,434 1,287 1,510 Heifers 2,357 2,461 819 760 882 Beef Cows 719 769 280 235 254 Dairy Cows 798 818 284 250 284 Bulls and stags 150 161 52 52 57 Calves 312 346 124 106 116 Sheep 1,343 1,218 386 372 460 Hogs 22,745 24,147 8,092 7,765 8,290 Barrows & gilts 21,603 22,977 7,682 7,400 7,895 Sows 916 947 333 297 317 Broilers 1,680,387 1,795,412 600,412 555,000 640,000 Turkeys 60,659 64,561 20,561 20,000 24,000 Mar-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 /* Mar-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 706 711 707 705 707 Calves 230 217 224 225 224 Sheep 66 62 64 65 65 Hogs 185 188 186 186 186 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 414.4 419.5 411.2 420.3 407.4 Pork 356.9 383.2 365.3 389.6 399.8 Bellies 54.9 40.7 61.1 62.8 65.2 Hams 48.6 63.9 33.4 40.1 52.7 Total chicken 412.1 451.7 472.1 456.3 464.6 Turkey 304.8 280.7 254.4 317.6 366.4 Frozen eggs 15.8 19.1 19.5 19.5 18.2 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Dec-94 Jan-95 Jan - Jan - Dec '93 Dec '94 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 46,520 75,836 905,801 876,361 New Zealand 34,659 56,877 561,947 527,877 Canada 34,162 36,913 407,395 462,512 Brazil 3,807 3,231 109,802 125,782 Argentina 11,598 13,894 161,809 141,145 Central America 18,899 16,215 223,523 206,375 Other 3,234 2,645 31,053 30,614 Total 152,878 205,611 2,401,329 2,370,667 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 65,233 54,490 719,769 832,429 Canada 31,426 22,824 243,549 285,716 Mexico 21,577 6,821 120,017 223,022 Korea, Rep. 19,753 18,347 116,162 177,286 Caribbean 1,765 1,070 12,425 11,400 Other 9,598 6,670 63,121 80,946 Total 149,353 110,223 1,275,042 1,610,800 Cattle Imports Mexico 137,622 145,933 1,296,609 1,072,126 Canada 53,764 72,991 1,202,271 1,010,299 Over 700 lbs. 49,360 68,654 1,031,734 943,579 500-700 lbs. 996 536 92,900 13,649 Total 191,386 218,925 2,499,046 2,082,504 Cattle Exports Mexico 9,890 1,911 76,854 128,636 Canada 9,220 8,224 67,530 92,365 Total 21,217 10,563 153,416 230,791 Lamb Imports Australia 1,499 1,711 23,632 22,762 New Zealand 1,311 1,177 17,339 15,911 Total 2,810 2,942 40,978 38,683 Mutton Imports 481 1,265 11,855 10,723 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service Monitoring - Import 3/19/94 3/19/95 % Chg Meat Import Law 284,329 112,406 -60.5% Canada 80,227 67,574 -15.8% ----------------------------------------------------------------- Dec-94 Jan-95 Jan - Jan - Dec '93 Dec ' Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 33,387 37,628 402,275 421,768 Denmark 15,055 11,813 233,772 244,545 Poland 1,448 483 13,834 11,581 Hungary 1,013 1,001 29,933 18,210 Netherlands 1,299 765 22,771 16,769 Other 1,818 2,710 37,613 30,896 Total 54,019 54,401 740,197 743,769 Pork Exports Japan 17,571 18,848 220,933 239,876 Canada 5,230 4,080 36,364 52,902 Mexico 16,454 6,751 92,986 150,252 Caribbean 1,158 528 8,669 8,351 Other 16,487 23,157 76,169 80,607 Total 56,899 53,364 435,121 531,988 Hog Imports Head Canada 95,901 103,468 837,832 914,755 Under 110 lb 40,121 43,078 280,813 401,981 Total 96,743 103,691 840,050 921,274 Hog Exports Total 34,461 1,411 40,636 136,148 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 15,671 16,738 228,155 254,490 Mexico 20,136 14,744 188,879 220,937 Hong Kong 86,204 62,463 481,713 714,378 Singapore 5,121 3,292 55,386 64,568 Canada 7,496 4,392 85,582 78,935 Former USSR 108,343 101,604 241,753 818,489 Total 312,936 261,018 1,965,733 2,875,509 Turkey Exports Mexico 20,257 6,696 143,319 147,120 S. Korea 2,547 1,118 19,619 23,561 Hong Kong 724 499 6,773 6,902 Total 30,448 13,948 212,306 245,791 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,766 7,020 100,563 110,415 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 9,990 11,090 11,280 10,413 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,082 8,094 8,090 8,089 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,236 1,370 1,394 1,287 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 11,662 12,869 13,168 12,156 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.50 12.90 12.60 12.50 Milk for fluid use 13.50 12.90 12.70 12.50 Manuf. grade milk 12.30 11.50 11.40 11.50 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.41 11.38 11.35 11.79 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 64.0 67.0 64.0 65.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 134.2 121.3 124.5 130.4 Barrels 127.6 NA 119.6 126.9 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 109.9 106.9 106.7 107.1 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,314 1,450 1,650 1,850 Nonfat dry milk 1,477 1,800 1,810 1,956 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 25.6 9.8 12.2 24.2 Commercial American cheese 346.0 309.3 309.5 328.8 Other cheese 147.9 124.5 126.8 130.8 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 79.1 89.1 103.5 114.8 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,019 4,198 4,264 4,781 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,968 5,521 5,704 6,114 All Government (mf. basis) 5,148 1,664 1,497 1,459 All Government (ss. basis) 132 392 340 320 Jan-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 131.8 101.8 118.7 132.0 American cheese 247.3 240.1 255.5 262.0 Other-than-American cheese 291.2 320.9 321.6 303.6 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 76.7 82.6 78.5 81.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 7,691 7,371 7,784 7,996 Nonfat dry milk 89.2 86.0 113.5 107 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 73.0 92.6 95.8 NA American cheese 258.4 242.8 257.1 NA Other-than-American cheese 269.8 364.2 352.2 NA Nonfat dry milk 75.3 57.5 72.5 NA All products (mf. basis) 11,168 12,366 12,449 NA USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 49.5 10.9 20.7 24 Cheese 0.1 1.9 0.3 0 Nonfat dry milk 14.9 32.4 26.7 31 All products (mf basis 2/) 1098.5 282.3 488.2 596 All products (ss basis 2/) 196.5 417.2 346.9 429 Imports (mf basis 2/) 207 299 295 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1992 1993 1994 1995 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 4,979 5,135 5,342 5,517 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.4 Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 3.5 3.0 4.3 6.2 10-Year Bond,% 7.0 5.9 7.1 7.7 Production, million lb. Beef 22,968 22,942 24,281 24,675 Pork 17,184 17,030 17,661 17,925 Broilers 21,052 22,178 23,846 25,400 Turkeys 4,829 4,848 4,992 5,305 Total Red Meat & Poultry 67,193 68,107 71,835 74,345 Eggs, mil doz. 5,905 6,003 5,265 5,315 Milk 151,648 150,954 154,093 158,168 Commercial use (mf basis) 142,081 145,350 150,629 154,900 Net removals (mf basis) 9,936 6,653 4,824 4,645 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 66.5 65.1 67.4 68.5 Pork 53.1 52.3 53.1 53.8 Broilers 66.6 68.4 69.8 73.4 Turkeys 18.0 17.8 18.0 18.8 Total Red Meat & Poultry 208.4 207.6 212.1 218.3 Eggs, number 235.8 236.2 238.6 239.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 75.36 76.36 68.84 66-70 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 81.76 86.46 77.72 71-75 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 44.84 47.52 42.50 38-41 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 43.03 46.10 40.06 38-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 52.60 55.20 55.69 51-54 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 60.20 62.60 65.65 60-63 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 65.40 72.50 67.25 64-68 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.09 12.80 13.03 12.0-12.6 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.88 11.80 12.01 11.0-11.6 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,324 1,275 1,611 1,715 Beef & veal imports 2,440 2,401 2,371 2,635 Pork exports 407 435 531 495 Pork imports 645 740 743 730 Broiler exports 1,489 1,966 2,875 3,225 Turkey exports 171 212 245 250 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,427 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.1 2.8 3.5 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,744 6,044 6,378 6,115 Pork 4,182 4,240 4,326 4,913 Broilers 5,674 5,983 6,160 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,986 17,773 18,429 18,647 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,692 39,973 38,365 38,063 Commercial use 35,292 37,681 39,657 37,999 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (240) 849 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 66 68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76 75 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 43 37 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 41 31 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 56 52 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 67 73 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67 67 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 13 13 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 12 12 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,467 5,503 5,534 5,563 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.2 10-Year Bond,% 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 Production, million lb. Beef 5,950 6,125 6,450 6,150 Pork 4,475 4,325 4,425 4,700 Broilers 6,150 6,350 6,500 6,400 Turkeys 1,200 1,330 1,395 1,380 Total Meat 18,062 18,377 19,004 18,902 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 1,320 1,320 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 39,072 41,045 39,278 38,773 Commercial use 36,175 39,125 40,200 39,400 Net removals 2,478 1,497 25 645 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.2 17.8 16.6 Pork 13.3 13.0 13.4 14.1 Broilers 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.1 Turkeys 3.8 4.0 4.4 6.6 Total Meat 53.0 53.6 55.4 56.3 Eggs, number 60.1 59.3 59.2 60.8 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 7 6 6 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 7 7 6 71-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 3 3 3 37-41 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 3 3 3 36-40 Broiler,12 City 5 5 5 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern 5 5 6 63-69 Eggs, New York 6 5 6 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.5-12 11.7-12 11.5-12 12.3-13.3 Milk, M-W 11.4-11 10.5-11 10.8-11 11.2-12.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 395 425 445 450 Beef/veal imports 710 705 660 560 Pork exports 130 125 110 130 Pork imports 180 190 180 180 Broiler exports 750 775 800 900 Turkey exports 52 64 59 75 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1995