LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY April 21, 1995 Revised--April 24, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-16. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Large meat supplies will continue to pressure livestock and poultry prices, and prospects for higher feed grain prices also cloud the outlook. Record large feed use and rising exports already have driven up corn prices since early this year. Summer corn futures currently hold about a 10- to 15-cent premium over the cash market, and any concerns over the 1995 crop will push prices higher. Farmers indicated in early March that they plan to plant about 5 percent fewer corn acres this year, largely because of a 7.5-percent Acreage Reduction Program (ARP). Last year the ARP was zero percent. Higher feed costs and lower meat prices could make feeding livestock and poultry less attractive in 1995/96, and slow future production gains. Pork Supplies Decline Seasonally Seasonally smaller slaughter hog supplies are beginning to lower kill rates. Weekly slaughter should drop below 1.8 million head by the first of May, and not move above this level again until September. However, U.S. market hog inventories were the largest on record on March 1, 1995, and slaughter this spring and summer will be 3 and 2 percent higher, respectively, than a year earlier. A 5-percent decline in March-May farrowing intentions was reported as of March 1. This should lead to year-over-year declines in slaughter this fall, the first decline since first-quarter 1994. Producers also intend to have fewer sows farrow during June-August, leading to about a 2-percent decline in slaughter during January-March 1996. Although the 58.4 million head hog inventory was record large on March 1, a 3-percent decline in the breeding herd should begin to slow the rate of expansion. Sow slaughter over the past two quarters has increased, and gilts added to breeding herds during December-February were down about 5 percent from a year earlier. Live hog prices averaged near $38.50 per cwt in the first quarter, down 15 percent from a year earlier. Record production and record freezer stocks contributed to the lower prices and both factors will continue to dampen near-term price advances. Freezer stocks have been growing since January 1, and were up 12 percent from a year earlier on March 1. Larger belly and picnic inventories accounted for most of the increase, but nearly all cuts of pork showed year-to-year gains. Lower retail prices since last fall have been instrumental in moving large pork supplies. But, with live hog prices off about $7 per cwt from last year, and retail prices down about 10 cents per pound, farm-to-retail price spreads remain wide. The spread grew wider in March as retail pork prices gained 3.6 cents per pound while live hog and cut-out values trended lower. Pork exports to Japan were up 11 percent from a year earlier during January-February. Lower U.S. prices and a favorable exchange rate make U.S. pork very attractive in Japan, and exports should continue at higher levels than in 1994. Exports to Russia under EEP continued to be exceptionally strong in February and commercial sales are expected to continue beyond the completion of EEP sales. Beef Trade: Short-term Problems, Long-term Gains Stocker-feeder cattle imports from Mexico were up 46 percent from a year earlier through February, while total cattle imports were up 53 percent. Bi- weekly APHIS data suggest continued large imports in March. The peso devaluation in late December is causing a disruption in trade patterns that had begun to emerge under NAFTA. Imports of stocker cattle from Mexico were down sharply in second-half 1994 as the purchasing power of Mexican consumers increased and domestic beef demand grew. However, meat demand dropped and the value of cattle sold to the U.S. more than doubled as the peso declined from 3.47 pesos to the dollar in late December to about 7.7 in early March. The peso recovered to 6.3 in mid-April. While adding marginally to U.S. supplies this year, the export movement will reduce Mexican beef supplies and the ability to increase production in second-half 1995 and over the next few years. Breeding herds in Mexico also are being reduced as exports of cows for slaughter have increased substantially from the very low levels of the past 2 years, and imports of breeding cattle have fallen. Many of the Mexican cattle imported since the first of the year remain on pastures, but large U.S. feeder cattle supplies already are pushing on-feed inventories near the large levels of a year earlier. Pressure continues to build on spring and summer fed cattle marketings as feedlot placements remain large. Fed cattle prices peaked near $74 per cwt in mid-February and lows this summer are likely to drop below $60 at times. Prices averaged near $70 per cwt in March, but dropped to the mid $60's in late April. Feeder cattle prices are trading at a discount to fed cattle, even though grazing conditions should remain favorable in most areas through at least midsummer. Declining fed cattle prices and large supplies of heavier feeder cattle reduced prices for 750- to 800-pound feeder steers in Oklahoma City to the low $60's per cwt in late April. Seasonally increasing beef supplies through the summer quarter will place continued price pressure on beef cuts and trimmings, but should provide attractive prices for U.S. consumers and foreign meat buyers. Although beef exports to Mexico have declined nearly 50 percent, exports to Pacific Rim countries are up 11 to 18 percent. Further increases are likely, particularly given the weak dollar relative to the Japanese yen. Boxed beef and lean beef trimmings prices have declined from late March, and are sharply below first-quarter 1994 averages. Broiler Breeder Flock Growth Slows Broiler breeder flock growth has moderated. Potential placements in hatchery supply flocks were up about 11 percent earlier this year, but dropped to about 8 percent for March. The March 1 flock was up 5 percent, the lowest monthly increase since July 1993. Lower broiler prices and higher feed costs are squeezing producer returns. Weekly hatch figures (15 States) for March were up 3-5 percent from a year earlier, compared with 7 percent in February. There also have been reports of more widespread respiratory disease in broilers this winter, which may partially explain why slaughter weights have been little changed from last year versus the 1- to 2-percent weight gains seen in 1994. Whole broiler prices are expected to strengthen this spring, but remain about 6 cents per pound below 1994. Strong export sales, especially to Russia, Hong Kong, and Japan, have supported leg quarter prices near last year's levels. However, breast prices remain 10-15 percent lower as increased broiler and other meat supplies keep domestic markets under pressure. Lower U.S. prices, the falling value of the dollar relative to a number of Asian currencies, and the continued downturn in Russian poultry production boosted U.S. broiler exports for the first 2 months of 1995 to over 532 million pounds, 59 percent above 1994. Higher exports to Pacific Rim countries and Russia are expected to more than compensate for smaller exports to Mexico brought on by the peso's devaluation. Turkey Production Growth To Slow Poult placements in March and eggs in incubators on April 1 were only fractionally above last year. This will slow production from the double-digit increase in the first quarter. Production should remain up about 3-4 percent during the remainder of the year, however, mainly due to heavier weights. Turkey prices are 1-2 cents per pound below last year, relatively strong given the increased supplies. Turkey breast prices are holding near last year's levels while dark meat parts prices are lower. January-February turkey exports were 11 percent above 1994, and exports to Mexico jumped 13 percent despite the peso devaluation. The increase likely is resulting from sausage manufacturers purchasing relatively lower priced product before the tariff rate quota is triggered. Lower turkey prices are expected to help exports grow in several regions. Much of the increase likely will come from countries with rapid economic growth and whose currencies have strengthened relative to the U.S. dollar. Egg Supplies Remain Large Egg production continues to expand as more producers choose to molt their hens. There have been very few increases in hatch over the past year. The egg-type chick hatch was up 2 percent in February and eggs in incubators were up 13 percent on March 1. Egg prices during April are little changed from last year due to Easter falling later in the month in 1995. After Easter, egg prices are expected to fall as seasonal factors and increased supplies continue to pressure prices. Egg breaking continues to increase, as the egg products industry expands. Eggs broken were increasing at a 10- to 11-percent rate in early 1995. Milk Production Surge To Continue Milk production is expected to continue expanding briskly during the rest of 1995. Higher-than-expected winter milk prices will encourage further growth in western cow numbers. In some midwestern States, more farms than a year earlier are expected to expand, while fewer quit dairying. However, lower spring and summer milk prices probably will pull cow numbers back below a year earlier during the second half. The number of cows injected with bovine somatotropin (bST) will continue to increase, boosting milk per cow. Successful adopters of bST probably will inject more of their herds, while other producers start to use it. This should easily outweigh situations where bST use is discontinued. Along with a boost from better forage during the first half, additional bST use is expected to lift 1995 growth in milk per cow above 3 percent. January-March milk production jumped 4 percent from a year earlier. Milk per cow rose sharply, while the number of milk cows was slightly above a year earlier. Strong domestic and export demand absorbed much of this additional production. However, April declines in cheese prices indicate that production gains were, as expected, overtaking higher use. Milk prices are expected to remain below a year earlier for the rest of 1995. Higher Catfish Production in 1995 Based on grower-held inventories at the start of 1995, catfish going to processing plants are forecast to reach 460-470 million pounds, up 5-7 percent from 1994. Catfish production fell 4 percent last year to 439.3 million pounds, the first decline since 1975, as growers cut back stocking and feeding levels due to low farm prices in 1993. Catfish production during first-half 1995 is estimated at 202 million fish, up 7 percent from last year. The increased volume is expected to lower farm and wholesale prices slightly from a year earlier. However, gross farm revenues are expected to total $330 to $360 million, about the same as in 1994. Farm prices should average between 72 and 76 cents a pound in 1995. Production and prices during the second half of 1995 will depend on how fast the stockers and fingerlings held by growers can be brought to market size. With farm prices still averaging around 77-78 cents a pound, and feed costs lower than last year, growers have an incentive to feed fish at maximum rates. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 9,011 8,870 8,866 8,926 Net placements 1,554 1,632 1,541 1,695 Marketings 1,588 1,636 1,481 1,629 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 522,399 534,462 536,954 549,742 Chicks hatched (000)/2 639,967 661,389 598,962 675,000 Hatching egg layers/1 47,013 49,218 49,645 49,226 Pullets placed (000) 6,301 5,748 5,481 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,371 4,528 4,995 5,850 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 34,674 34,881 35,095 35,158 Poults placed (000) 28,474 27,038 25,943 28,558 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / 450 452 405 454 Table egg layers, (000)/1 240,507 246,866 244,281 244,086 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.8 72.2 70.0 71.9 Chicks hatched (000) 33,492 31,527 31,693 35,700 Lt.-type hen slaughter 11,099 9,951 8,290 9,950 ESTIMATED RETURNS Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 77.30 65.54 67.66 68.51 Selling price 75.48 73.79 70.64 67.50 Net margin -1.82 8.25 2.98 -1.01 N. Central hog farrow to fini Breakeven price /3 39.05 37.81 37.57 38.00 Selling price 42.83 39.60 38.13 36.20 Net margin 3.78 1.79 0.56 -1.80 Broiler Wholesale cost 51.30 47.40 47.67 47.66 Wholesale price 57.80 51.73 52.32 51.50 Net margin 6.50 4.33 4.65 3.84 Turkey Wholesale cost 65.37 58.77 59.16 59.53 Wholesale price 61.58 58.08 59.47 59.83 Net margin -3.79 -0.69 0.31 0.30 Egg Wholesale cost 69.51 64.80 64.90 65.62 Wholesale price 68.51 71.76 72.64 73.00 Net margin -1.00 6.96 7.74 7.38 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* Estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 75.48 73.79 70.64 67.50 Nebraska Direct 75.16 72.55 70.00 67.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 48.44 42.63 41.35 40.00 Utility boning 47.31 40.63 39.32 38.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 101.50 88.28 84.88 82.95 600-650 lb. 89.44 76.91 76.31 75.40 750-800 lb. 81.19 72.53 68.84 65.10 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 91.81 77.66 77.94 74.70 700-750 lb. 77.13 69.44 65.44 63.80 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 42.48 39.03 37.86 36.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 42.83 39.60 38.13 36.20 Sows 6 Markets 39.84 31.11 33.02 30.50 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 42.60 31.79 39.60 39.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 51.25 75.08 73.75 70.00 Ewes, Good 39.45 41.75 31.25 34.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 61.95 82.69 80.06 74.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.61 2.27 2.36 2.40 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.63 3.93 3.82 3.78 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 189.22 151.96 156.21 162.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 100.00 94.20 94.20 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 77.90 64.00 63.90 NA U.S. Pasture index NA NA NA NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 114.98 111.12 107.87 102.35 Choice 1-3 700-850# 113.99 110.46 107.35 102.50 Select 1-3 700-850# 111.96 108.25 105.40 99.50 Cutter Cow 91.62 76.63 74.94 69.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 124.49 108.38 101.37 95.25 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 123.88 105.75 100.45 92.75 Hide & offal value 7.83 9.32 9.42 9.35 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 90.38 79.60 88.83 90.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 59.81 56.38 54.55 51.75 Loins, 14-18 lb. 101.89 102.20 95.30 94.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 46.84 35.80 36.30 33.50 Hams, 17-20 lb. 57.76 54.34 51.60 43.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 44.41 35.98 35.41 30.65 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 141.88 150.00 156.25 156.25 55-65 lb., Choice 131.19 147.25 154.25 154.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 57.80 51.73 52.32 51.50 Georgia dock 55.47 50.64 51.20 50.50 Northeast Breast, boneless 189.28 158.99 155.92 160.00 Breast, Ribs on 90.06 80.65 78.20 80.00 Legs, whole 49.38 50.79 50.80 51.00 Leg quarters 34.11 32.82 33.87 33.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 63.03 58.55 60.09 60.50 Hens, 8-16 lb. 61.58 58.54 60.04 60.00 Drumsticks 39.61 32.22 29.13 26.00 Wings, full cut 31.92 29.41 32.67 28.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 68.51 71.76 72.64 73.00 New York 65.02 64.30 66.20 66.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 288.3 282.6 284.3 284.7 Beef - All Fresh 271.6 262.0 263.7 266.5 Ground Beef 157.6 138.1 142.6 139.2 Rib roast 493.4 495.8 499.1 495.2 T-bone steak 581.6 579.7 583.8 593.8 Pork 201.4 191.4 189.9 193.5 Bacon 201.7 193.0 193.0 191.0 Chops 325.8 316.0 314.4 313.4 Picnic 116.4 109.9 110.2 108.0 Chicken - Composite 146.1 138.9 141.2 145.1 Whole, fresh 89.1 89.7 89.3 91.7 Breast - bone in 215.0 192.5 194.3 202.8 Leg quarter 108.7 111.2 114.6 115.3 Turkey; whole frozen 98.6 98.0 99.1 102.2 Eggs, Grade A, Large 92.6 88.2 86.3 87.5 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 147.2 150.3 150.9 151.4 All food 143.2 147.5 147.4 147.4 All meat 136.4 134.9 134.9 135.5 Beef & veal 138.0 135.8 136.6 136.9 Pork 134.6 132.2 131.8 132.9 Poultry 140.1 140.2 141.4 143.3 Dairy Products 131.8 132.7 132.1 132.2 Fluid milk & cream 132.4 132.4 131.9 131.8 Manufactured products 131.7 133.5 132.9 133.1 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 16.3 21.7 19.1 19.4 Wholesale to retail 111.4 110.9 113.9 119.0 Farmers share (%) 56.0 53.0 53.0 51.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 34.8 32.1 31.1 31.7 Wholesale to retail 96.4 100.3 96.9 102.1 Farmers share (%) 35.0 31.0 33.0 31.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 25.0 30.6 29.6 31.4 Turkey 28.1 28.5 32.0 33.7 Eggs 15.4 17.6 16.5 16.9 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Apr-94 Apr-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 7,646 7,741 1,808 2,060 1,864 Veal 93 101 24 27 23 Pork 5,613 5,850 1,354 1,634 1,362 Lamb 113 105 24 30 27 Total red meat 13,465 13,797 3,210 3,751 3,276 Broilers 7,591 8,097 1,888 2,200 1,950 Other chicken 170 172 41 47 42 Turkeys 1,471 1,590 371 440 390 Total poultry 9,232 9,860 2,300 2,687 2,382 Total meat & poultry 22,697 23,657 5,510 6,438 5,658 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 10,873 11,055 2,581 2,950 2,655 Steers 5,585 5,589 1,286 1,498 1,371 Heifers 3,109 3,226 759 865 783 Beef Cows 947 1,007 237 262 228 Dairy Cows 1,028 1,020 247 266 223 Bulls and stags 204 213 52 59 50 Calves 406 453 106 121 102 Sheep 1,763 1,662 375 468 432 Hogs 30,524 31,529 7,329 8,808 7,300 Barrows & gilts 29,016 29,992 6,969 8,391 6,950 Sows 1,202 1,211 286 327 265 Broilers 2,246,969 2,392,136 559,699 650,000 575,000 Turkeys 81,444 84,123 19,960 23,000 20,600 Apr-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 707 707 707 705 707 Calves 233 224 226 227 229 Sheep 65 64 64 65 65 Hogs 185 186 186 186 186 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 423.2 411.2 420.3 407.7 383.9 Pork 393.1 365.3 389.6 395.1 417.6 Bellies 63.1 61.1 62.8 64.2 79.0 Hams 48.5 33.4 40.1 52.4 44.2 Total chicken 379.6 472.1 456.3 465.2 491.7 Turkey 346.5 254.4 317.6 367.5 448.6 Frozen eggs 15.6 19.5 19.5 18.3 18.6 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jan-95 Feb-95 Jan - Jan - Feb-94 Feb-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lbs. Australia 75,836 53,614 204,190 129,450 New Zealand 56,877 58,648 96,545 115,525 Canada 36,913 32,320 76,238 69,233 Brazil 3,231 2,861 28,290 6,092 Argentina 13,894 13,111 23,878 27,004 Central America 16,215 17,226 34,655 33,441 Other 2,645 1,311 3,220 3,957 Total 205,611 179,092 467,015 384,703 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 54,490 74,125 115,653 128,616 Canada 22,824 21,016 38,265 43,840 Mexico 6,821 7,510 28,056 14,331 Korea, Rep. 18,347 15,063 28,424 33,410 Caribbean 1,070 1,021 1,430 2,091 Other 6,670 7,171 10,411 13,840 Total 110,223 125,906 222,239 236,129 Cattle Imports Mexico 145,933 190,551 220,607 336,484 Canada 72,991 82,624 116,322 155,615 Over 700 lbs. 68,654 77,750 106,766 146,404 500-700 lbs. 536 514 2,417 1,050 Total 218,925 273,175 336,929 492,100 Cattle Exports Mexico 1,911 961 22,957 2,872 Canada 8,224 4,612 13,211 12,836 Total 10,563 5,887 37,877 16,450 Lamb Imports Australia 1,711 1,376 4,079 3,088 New Zealand 1,177 1,277 1,587 2,454 Total 2,942 2,654 5,669 5,596 Mutton Imports 1,265 1,531 2,454 2,796 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service YTD imports under W 4/16/94 4/15/95 % Chg Canada 110,556 95,119 -14.0% TRQ Countries 385,146 303,151 -21.3% Australia 214,041 139,758 -34.7% New Zealand 120,452 123,017 2.1% ----------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-95 Feb-95 Jan - Jan - Feb-94 Feb-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lbs. Canada 37,628 37,816 72,252 75,444 Denmark 11,813 12,708 39,788 24,521 Poland 483 1,321 1,759 1,804 Hungary 1,001 812 4,347 1,813 Netherlands 765 910 2,395 1,675 Other 2,710 2,650 4,535 5,360 Total 54,401 56,217 125,075 110,618 Pork Exports Japan 18,848 20,399 29,650 39,247 Canada 4,080 3,175 3,361 7,255 Mexico 6,751 6,335 23,025 13,087 Caribbean 528 713 793 1,242 Other 23,157 42,442 9,467 65,599 Total 53,364 73,066 66,296 126,430 Hog Imports Head Canada 103,468 92,869 121,765 196,337 Under 110 lb 43,078 44,167 50,474 87,245 Total 103,691 93,122 122,004 196,813 Hog Exports Total 1,411 223 9,591 1,634 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lbs. Japan 16,738 16,891 24,961 33,630 Mexico 14,744 14,541 31,441 29,285 Hong Kong 62,463 80,955 79,445 143,417 Singapore 3,292 3,927 10,795 7,219 Canada 4,392 4,223 10,077 8,615 Former USSR 101,604 97,550 80,370 199,154 Total 261,018 271,151 335,276 532,170 Turkey Exports Mexico 6,696 13,658 17,978 20,354 S. Korea 1,118 2,979 1,712 4,097 Hong Kong 499 1,418 759 1,917 Total 13,948 21,945 32,107 35,893 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,020 7,307 12,611 14,327 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Mar-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,315 11,280 10,441 11,791 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,074 8,090 8,088 8,108 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,401 1,394 1,291 1,454 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,209 13,149 12,171 13,744 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.50 12.70 12.60 12.60 Milk for fluid use 13.60 12.70 12.60 12.70 Manuf. grade milk 12.50 11.40 11.60 11.70 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.77 11.35 11.79 11.89 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 65.5 64.0 65.5 66.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 140.0 124.5 130.4 131.1 Barrels 135.3 119.6 126.9 127.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 110.5 106.7 107.1 107.8 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,332 1,650 1,850 2,000 Nonfat dry milk 1,521 1,810 1,956 2,125 Beginning stocks: Mil. lbs. Commercial butter 19.4 12.2 25.5 25.7 Commercial American cheese 327.1 309.5 325.3 328.9 Other cheese 145.3 126.8 131.5 127.0 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 76.0 103.5 114.8 94.0 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,707 4,264 4,780 4,806 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,735 5,704 6,086 5,862 All Government (mf. basis) 5,118 1,497 1,458 1,402 All Government (ss. basis) 101 340 320 341 USDA net removals: Mil. lbs. Butter 11.4 24.2 3.1 12.4 Cheese 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 Nonfat dry milk 14.3 31.1 48.6 49.1 All products (mf basis 2/) 262.4 596.1 121.2 319.3 All products (ss basis 2/) 178.4 429.2 611.0 612.6 Feb-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lbs. Butter 119.6 118.7 132.0 120.3 American cheese 221.3 255.5 262.0 240.2 Other-than-American cheese 286.2 321.6 303.6 288.2 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 86.2 78.5 81.6 85.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 7330.5 7783.6 8015.8 7531.9 Nonfat dry milk 85.4 113.5 106.7 98.3 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lbs. Butter 81.0 95.8 96.4 NA American cheese 241.2 257.1 246.2 NA Other-than-American cheese 307.3 352.2 320.0 NA Nonfat dry milk 66.8 72.5 64.5 NA All products (mf. basis) 11076.0 12449.0 12096.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 180.0 295.0 220.0 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1992 1993 1994 1995 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 4,979 5,135 5,344 5,517 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.4 Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 3.5 3.0 4.3 6.2 10-Year Bond,% 7.0 5.9 7.1 7.7 Production, million lb. Beef 22,968 22,942 24,278 24,825 Pork 17,184 17,030 17,658 18,000 Broilers 21,052 22,178 23,847 25,425 Turkeys 4,829 4,848 4,992 5,305 Total Red Meat & Poultry 67,193 68,107 71,796 74,567 Eggs, mil doz. 5,087 5,156 5,265 5,310 Milk 150,885 150,582 153,626 158,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 141,318 144,976 150,063 156,000 Net removals (mf basis) 9,936 6,654 4,812 3,900 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 66.5 65.1 67.5 68.6 Pork 53.1 52.3 53.1 53.9 Broilers 66.6 68.4 69.8 73.4 Turkeys 18.0 17.8 17.9 18.8 Total Red Meat & Poultry 208.4 207.6 211.8 218.3 Eggs, number 235.8 236.2 238.6 238.8 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 75.36 76.36 68.84 66-69 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 81.76 86.46 77.72 68-71 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 44.84 47.52 42.50 37-39 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 43.03 46.10 40.06 38-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 52.60 55.20 55.69 51-54 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 60.20 62.60 65.65 61-64 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 65.40 72.50 67.25 64-67 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.09 12.80 13.03 2.3-12.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.88 11.80 12.01 11.4-11.9 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef & veal exports 1,324 1,275 1,611 1,675 Beef & veal imports 2,440 2,401 2,371 2,450 Pork exports 407 435 531 515 Pork imports 645 740 743 730 Broiler exports 1,489 1,966 2,875 3,225 Turkey exports 171 212 245 250 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.1 2.8 3.5 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lbs. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,201 37,618 39,448 37,796 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.1 Total Meat 50.5 52.2 54.1 55.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1994 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,467 5,503 5,534 5,563 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.2 10-Year Bond,% 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 Production, million lbs. Beef 5,900 6,150 6,550 6,225 Pork 4,500 4,375 4,425 4,700 Broilers 6,150 6,375 6,500 6,400 Turkeys 1,200 1,330 1,395 1,380 Total Meat 18,026 18,476 19,103 18,962 Eggs, mil doz. 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 39,000 41,100 39,200 38,700 Commercial use 37,000 39,600 40,000 39,400 Net removals 1,100 1,300 200 1,300 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 16.6 17.2 18.0 16.8 Pork 13.3 13.2 13.4 14.0 Broilers 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.1 Turkeys 3.8 4.0 4.4 6.6 Total Meat 52.6 53.9 55.5 56.3 Eggs, number 59.6 59.5 59.1 60.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.58 66-68 62-66 64-70 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 68-70 66-70 65-71 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37-39 36-38 35-37 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 37-39 39-41 36-40 Broiler,12 City 51.80 52-54 52-56 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern 59.70 59-61 61-65 64-70 Eggs, New York 65.20 60-62 64-68 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.60 12.0-12.4 12.0-12.7 2.6-13.6 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.0-11.4 11.3-12.0 1.5-12.5 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 360 420 445 450 Beef/veal imports 620 660 625 545 Pork exports 140 125 115 135 Pork imports 180 190 180 180 Broiler exports 750 775 800 900 Turkey exports 52 62 65 71 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1995 END-END-END