HDR1011800201300623950900 LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY June 23, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-18. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wet, cool weather has delayed plantings for U.S. feedgrains. As a result, USDA lowered their estimate of the 1995 corn crop by 700 million bushels to 7.9 billion bushels. Historical relationships indicate that late plantings result in lower yields. Farmers likely will idle some corn acreage, or shift the acreage to soybeans or to other crops with a shorter growing season. The projected price range for corn for 1995/96 was raised 15 cents to $2.45 to $2.85 per bushel. Broiler Returns To Be Squeezed Broiler returns are expected to average near breakeven in 1996, with losses in the fourth quarter, the first negative returns the industry has seen since April 1992. Net returns for 1995 are expected to average near 3 cents per pound, about half what they did in 1994, as increasing feed costs and lower prices reduce expected returns. Increased production of broilers and other meats is depressing prices, but second-quarter 1995 net returns continued at 4-5 cents per pound. Wholesale broiler prices in June are expected to be 5-6 cents below last year. June broiler production is expected to increase about 5 percent from a year earlier based on 4-5 percent more chicks placed for June slaughter and a fractional weight increase per bird. Placement increases, over last year, have been lower in recent weeks indicating a slow down in production increases. Broiler exports in 1995 are forecast to increase more than 30 percent from last year. Sales in the first quarter were up more than 50 percent. Continued strong sales to Russia, Hong Kong, and China will absorb most of the increase. Turkey Production Increase Slowing Turkey production in July is forecast to increase about 1 percent from a year earlier, based on about 2 percent fewer birds placed and average weights that are about 3-4 percent higher. This production increase is quite modest and likely reflects near breakeven net returns during the first half of 1995. Higher corn and soybean meal costs in 1995 and 1996 will significantly lower net returns. The effects in 1995 will be smaller, with returns projected about 1 cent per pound lower than in 1994. In 1996, returns are expected to be negative for all but the fourth quarter, and likely average -3 cents per pound for the year. Exports of turkey meat were up 1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and are expected to continue near year-earlier levels for the rest of 1995. Exports to Mexico and Russia fell, but South Korea and Hong Kong doubled their purchases. Egg Production Increasing Slowly Table egg production will increase about 1 percent in June. A fractionally larger flock will account for most of the increase. Eggs per layer will be nearly unchanged from last year because of the relatively high average age of the hens. Wholesale egg prices are expected to be lower than last year through July, but should increase later in the year as production increases slow. Retail egg prices are expected to be slightly lower than last year due to larger supplies. Retail prices are not expected to fall as much as wholesale prices, keeping the retail spread above last year's level, which was low relative to the early 1990's. Net returns for egg producers turned negative in May. Increased feed costs will lower net returns to about 3 cents per dozen in 1995, compared with nearly 4 cents in 1994. For 1996, higher costs and lower prices will drive net returns lower with a loss of about 2 cents per dozen expected for the year. Shell egg exports were 10 percent higher in the first quarter compared to 1994. Higher exports are expected for the second quarter also. Egg product exports rose more rapidly than shell egg exports as total egg exports increased by 13 percent in the first quarter. Export sales during the last half of 1995 are expected to be little changed from 1994. Cattle Prices Holding Steady Record beef production is being accommodated by strong seasonal holiday sales, increased exports, and sharply declining processing beef imports. Weekly cattle slaughter has exceeded 700,000 head a week since early May, but at weights near to below a year-earlier levels. May through early July historically has been a period of strong consumer beef demand. The industry has been able to market large beef supplies this year without causing prices to collapse. The large marketings this spring also protect against even larger supplies and price pressure later this summer. Retail prices already are declining, with additional downward movement likely until fall. Packer margins are wide and will encourage continued large slaughter. Boxed beef prices have been trading well below a year earlier, but prices of individual cuts that are part of the composite boxed beef price reveal sharply contrasting trends. Strong away-from-home and export demand has pushed loin and rib prices sharply higher, while lower value chuck and round cuts are the lowest they been in years. Some of the price pressure is resulting from increased marketings of steers with poor grading potential that are being priced into higher quality grinding-processed beef markets and displacing imported beef. Beef imports through April were down __ percent from a year earlier, and the lowest since 198?. First-half cow slaughter is up about 4 percent from a year earlier, but slaughter cow imports from Canada and Mexico account for much of the increase. The proportion of the U.S. cow herd slaughtered during January-June is about unchanged from a year earlier. The mid-year Cattle inventory report which will be released July 21 should provide an updated view of herd expansion. Grazing conditions are good-to-excellent in most areas, with the Southeast receiving much needed moisture in June. Although grain prices have already increased sharply, good forage conditions have allowed producers to put extra gain on lighter-weight cattle before feedlot placement. Cattle placement weights continue to rise and even though feed costs have increased, these heavier weight cattle are likely to break even this summer and fall. Hog Prices Surge on Tight Supplies Cash hog prices advanced $7-$8 per cwt in June as slaughter hog supplies declined seasonally. Retail buyers bid up wholesale cuts trying to secure products for end-of-June specials and the Independence Day holiday. Seasonally lower pork production is expected to continue through July, but additional price gains likely are not sustainable. Consumer meat purchases normally tail off in July, and large beef and poultry offerings will hold pork prices in check. Retail pork prices advanced slightly in May but remained 8 cents per pound below last year and about unchanged from first-quarter 1995. Wider wholesale-retail spreads since fourth-quarter 1994 and strong competition among packers for slaughter hogs kept farm-wholesale price spreads smaller than a year earlier. Packer/processors margins have remained relatively tight since the beginning of the year. The recent runup in live hog and wholesale prices is expected to add 2 to 3 cents to retail prices this summer. Further advances in retail prices are likely this fall as retailers prepare for year-over-year declines in fourth- quarter production and higher wholesale values compared to the very low prices offered last fall. Rising grain prices over the past month, if sustained, would add about $3 per head to the cost of hogs marketed this fall. Cash expenses will average near $40 per cwt and likely above projected slaughter hog prices for the quarter. Producers marketing hogs in early 1996 would face even higher breakevens. Cash costs alone would range in the mid $40's per cwt. In addition, grain futures paint a bleak picture for hog operations that must source grain from off site next year. Deferred contracts next spring are pricing corn near $3 a bushel, which would push operating costs near $50 per cwt. It appears unlikely that producers would risk expanding their operations under these conditions. Additional insight on the outlook for second-half 1995 and first-half 1996 will be provided in when the next Hogs and Pigs report is released on June 30. Brisk Milk Output Growth To Resume Milk production is expected to show large increases during the second half of 1995, particularly if output per cow increases in western areas. For the year, milk production is projected to rise about 3 percent, followed by 2-percent growth in 1996. Milk-feed price ratios during the rest of 1995 and 1996 are projected to be mediocre to unfavorable, which will temper growth in milk per cow. However, ample water supplies promise to ease western forage problems later this year. Nonfat dry milk prices were basically steady this spring, running near the support purchase price in the West and 3 to 4 cents above the support level in the Midwest. Prices are expected to be fairly weak through most of the summer as exports under DEIP may not absorb all of the surplus production. Butter prices in mid-June moved higher as supplies tightened seasonally. Further increases may occur, but are not certain. Fat users moved aggressively last winter to build stocks and obtain supply commitments for the second half of 1995. However, they probably underestimated the continued strong international prices. Export demand may be an increasingly important factor in butter prices. Cheese prices are expected to be fairly flat until midsummer as a surplus of skim solids is worked off. Prices then are projected to post a moderate seasonal rise during the rest of 1995. PRODUCTION INDICATORS May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 8,701 8,926 8,992 8,790 Net placements 1,323 1,695 1,355 1,667 Marketings 1,699 1,629 1,557 1,827 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 537,903 549,742 559,251 562,946 Chicks hatched (000)/2 658,690 677,334 662,372 690,000 Hatching egg layers/1 47,855 49,226 49,376 49,769 Pullets placed (000) 6,266 6,161 6,319 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,706 5,193 4,776 4,700 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 38,064 35,158 36,814 37,268 Poults placed (000) 29,360 28,514 26,906 29,452 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / 437 458 436 441 Table egg layers, (000)/1 238,514 244,161 242,282 240,381 Table eggs/100 layers/1 70.9 71.9 73.5 71.1 Chicks hatched (000) 35,336 34,806 34,101 36,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 10,013 9,239 9,611 9,600 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jun-94 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 70.71 68.51 66.56 62.95 Selling price 63.60 67.54 64.27 63.75 Net margin -7.11 -0.97 -2.29 0.80 N. Central hog farrow to fini Breakeven price /3 40.52 38.04 37.78 37.95 Selling price 43.01 36.04 37.42 43.50 Net margin 2.49 -2.00 -0.36 5.55 Broiler Wholesale cost 49.94 47.66 48.11 48.44 Wholesale price 60.71 51.51 52.94 55.50 Net margin 10.77 3.85 4.83 7.06 Turkey Wholesale cost 64.40 59.53 59.47 60.20 Wholesale price 64.90 59.62 61.05 63.00 Net margin 0.50 0.09 1.58 2.80 Egg Wholesale cost 68.46 65.62 66.13 66.51 Wholesale price 64.91 72.92 61.73 65.00 Net margin -3.55 7.30 -4.40 -1.51 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jun-94 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 63.60 67.54 64.27 63.75 Nebraska Direct 63.13 66.63 63.72 63.85 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 44.50 40.56 40.17 40.00 Utility boning 44.50 38.47 36.94 36.75 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 88.19 83.38 78.28 76.00 600-650 lb. 81.47 76.69 72.13 72.25 750-800 lb. 75.63 65.41 64.83 66.50 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 81.13 74.25 71.69 67.50 700-750 lb. 71.66 62.66 61.90 63.25 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 42.60 35.77 37.16 42.60 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 43.01 36.04 37.42 43.00 Sows 6 Markets 33.64 31.08 29.62 31.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 28.27 36.96 29.88 32.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 66.92 68.58 77.20 78.00 Ewes, Good 43.00 35.31 32.65 33.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 65.82 78.81 84.95 84.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jun-94 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.61 2.41 2.50 2.70 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.60 3.86 4.26 4.45 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 195.50 161.90 159.39 161.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 94.30 95.20 96.30 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 67.20 66.30 65.50 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jun-94 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 102.92 103.03 104.21 107.90 Choice 1-3 700-850# 102.10 103.25 104.59 108.25 Select 1-3 700-850# 97.49 99.76 95.04 99.00 Cutter Cow 84.26 72.91 70.86 67.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 108.78 94.46 89.68 93.00 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 109.08 94.63 87.95 88.00 Hide & offal value 8.00 9.36 9.18 8.90 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 172.57 164.19 160.35 178.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 57.53 51.64 54.14 59.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 103.84 93.33 103.50 115.65 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 40.39 33.83 31.70 37.00 Hams, 17-20 lb. 55.61 44.00 41.82 44.75 Trimmings, 72% fresh 39.95 31.51 31.47 44.60 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 147.25 156.25 167.68 180.00 55-65 lb., Choice 146.25 154.25 167.68 180.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 60.71 51.51 52.94 55.50 Georgia dock 58.75 50.61 51.61 53.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 197.98 160.16 179.52 180.00 Breast, Ribs on 90.66 79.73 88.03 89.00 Legs, whole 51.88 50.64 49.65 50.00 Leg quarters 33.47 32.69 31.80 33.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 66.66 60.35 62.14 65.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.61 60.05 60.57 63.00 Drumsticks 28.11 23.65 20.07 21.00 Wings, full cut 27.56 27.02 24.57 25.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 64.91 72.92 61.73 65.00 New York 62.91 66.65 59.45 64.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 288.1 284.7 283.7 282.2 Beef - All Fresh 267.6 266.5 259.5 258.7 Ground Beef 148.9 139.2 136.5 132.2 Rib roast 486.6 495.2 493.7 504.0 T-bone steak 596.2 593.8 586.6 593.1 Pork 198.8 193.5 190.6 191.0 Bacon 201.6 191.0 189.0 191.8 Chops 326.9 313.4 318.4 312.2 Picnic 111.9 108.0 112.4 110.2 Chicken - Composite 146.5 145.1 143.7 143.3 Whole, fresh 90.2 91.7 91.1 89.1 Breast - bone in 209.5 202.8 199.4 200.5 Leg quarter 113.4 115.3 115.2 114.1 Turkey; whole frozen 99.1 102.2 100.7 102.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 80.1 87.5 83.3 81.9 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 147.5 151.4 151.9 152.2 All food 143.5 147.4 148.4 148.3 All meat 136.2 135.5 134.9 134.7 Beef & veal 137.1 136.9 136.2 134.9 Pork 134.4 132.9 131.1 131.8 Poultry 141.8 143.3 142.3 141.6 Dairy Products 132.0 132.2 132.1 132.8 Fluid milk & cream 132.7 131.8 131.9 132.5 Manufactured products 131.9 133.1 132.8 133.8 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 21.8 19.4 19.1 27.5 Wholesale to retail 120.5 119.0 125.2 121.8 Farmers share (%) 51.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 34.8 31.7 33.4 33.5 Wholesale to retail 96.6 102.1 100.6 98.1 Farmers share (%) 34.0 31.0 30.0 31.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 21.3 31.4 31.6 28.2 Turkey 27.1 33.7 32.1 32.7 Eggs 18.6 16.9 12.4 22.2 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jun-94 Jun-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* Jun-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 11,787 12,201 1,849 2,194 2,281 Veal 139 151 22 26 25 Pork 8,420 8,900 1,405 1,537 1,470 Lamb 165 152 28 24 22 Total red meat 20,511 21,404 3,304 3,781 3,798 Broilers 11,651 12,428 1,903 2,200 2,180 Other chicken 260 264 43 47 47 Turkeys 2,345 2,506 370 455 485 Total poultry 14,255 15,198 2,316 2,702 2,712 Total meat & poultry 34,766 36,602 5,620 6,483 6,510 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 16,745 17,429 2,650 3,128 3,251 Steers 8,866 9,102 1,401 1,708 1,775 Heifers 4,713 5,027 765 893 926 Beef Cows 1,397 1,505 224 248 254 Dairy Cows 1,455 1,461 210 220 234 Bulls and stags 314 334 50 59 62 Calves 600 678 98 116 113 Sheep 2,590 2,386 440 368 348 Hogs 45,713 47,916 7,547 8,220 7,920 Barrows & gilts 43,410 45,569 7,208 7,814 7,505 Sows 1,836 1,886 269 331 340 Broilers 3,463,273 3,674,831 561,447 645,000 650,000 Turkeys 129,466 133,530 19,732 24,000 26,000 Jun-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 /* Jun-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 716 705 704 707 707 Calves 238 227 230 227 226 Sheep 63 65 64 64 64 Hogs 186 186 187 187 186 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 367.9 407.7 385.4 392.2 359.2 Pork 437.6 395.1 416.8 422.3 433.6 Bellies 79.0 64.2 79.0 78.5 77.7 Hams 90.7 52.4 45.2 57.8 84.1 Total chicken 422.4 465.2 492.9 520.3 517.1 Turkey 461.4 367.5 444.4 480.4 551.6 Frozen eggs 15.2 18.3 18.5 17.3 17.9 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Mar-95 Apr-95 Jan - Jan - Apr-94 Apr-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 54,269 57,768 311,019 241,487 New Zealand 54,790 52,007 205,252 222,323 Canada 36,246 34,144 155,937 139,623 Brazil 4,405 4,236 56,404 14,734 Argentina 16,433 13,987 48,600 57,424 Central America 19,061 10,479 72,360 62,981 Other 2,113 1,956 7,601 8,026 Total 187,317 174,578 857,174 746,598 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 77,085 75,645 275,133 281,346 Canada 22,366 22,683 78,205 88,889 Mexico 4,849 5,219 57,274 24,399 Korea, Rep. 16,813 16,270 62,122 66,494 Caribbean 1,264 951 3,320 4,307 Other 8,998 9,502 22,166 32,340 Total 131,377 130,270 498,220 497,776 Cattle Imports Mexico 270,141 195,614 497,469 802,239 Canada 106,453 107,620 303,323 369,688 Over 700 lbs. 99,194 99,728 277,375 345,326 500-700 lbs. 728 414 5,587 2,192 Total 376,594 303,234 800,792 1,171,928 Cattle Exports Mexico 747 548 35,112 4,167 Canada 9,186 4,553 23,332 26,575 Total 10,147 6,142 62,011 32,739 Lamb Imports Australia 1,896 1,660 8,129 6,644 New Zealand 2,512 2,178 4,389 7,144 Total 4,414 3,915 12,520 13,925 Mutton Imports 3,360 2,656 5,028 8,812 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 6/18/94 6/18/95 % Chg Canada 173,364 155,354 -10.4% TRQ Countries 546,609 479,672 -12.2% Australia 278,003 219,763 -20.9% New Zealand 192,354 205,480 6.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mar-95 Apr-95 Jan - Jan - Apr-94 Apr-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 41,636 37,316 153,682 154,397 Denmark 14,298 12,579 93,295 51,398 Poland 2,050 845 4,583 4,699 Hungary 520 674 7,432 3,008 Netherlands 829 1,345 6,075 3,849 Other 3,084 3,138 11,882 11,582 Total 62,416 55,898 276,949 228,932 Pork Exports Japan 27,029 27,254 69,339 93,529 Canada 3,657 3,443 9,564 14,356 Mexico 4,306 3,378 42,249 20,771 Caribbean 712 1,169 2,142 3,123 Other 24,850 19,559 19,198 110,008 Total 60,554 54,804 142,492 241,788 Hog Imports Head Canada 119,537 113,022 267,812 428,896 Under 110 lb 55,209 47,292 113,706 189,746 Total 119,547 113,072 268,252 429,432 Hog Exports Total 1,281 1,085 19,146 4,000 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 20,199 18,746 61,571 72,575 Mexico 17,102 12,744 66,263 59,131 Hong Kong 84,464 77,583 198,010 305,464 Singapore 4,597 3,676 22,729 15,493 Canada 4,586 6,127 19,970 19,328 Former USSR 124,043 116,115 225,264 439,312 Total 340,977 298,748 806,610 1,171,894 Turkey Exports Mexico 8,516 7,812 38,236 36,682 S. Korea 2,542 4,213 4,640 10,851 Hong Kong 1,391 2,363 2,057 5,671 Total 17,242 19,388 75,055 72,523 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,545 7,708 30,325 31,580 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS May-94 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,799 11,698 11,477 11,964 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,097 8,103 8,097 8,095 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,457 1,444 1,417 1,478 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,719 13,641 13,344 13,911 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.80 12.70 12.40 12.30 Milk for fluid use 12.90 12.70 12.40 12.30 Manuf. grade milk 11.40 11.70 11.20 11.10 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.51 11.89 11.16 11.12 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 64.5 66.5 66.5 66.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 125.7 131.1 122.8 122.1 Barrels 126.0 127.5 118.4 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 108.5 107.8 107.6 106.8 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,313 2,033 2,000 2,135 Nonfat dry milk 1,553 2,139 2,129 2,175 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 29.9 25.8 23.4 26.5 Commercial American cheese 325.2 328.9 330.6 333.5 Other cheese 161.8 127.0 135.3 132.7 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 87.0 94.0 97.5 127.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,125 4,806 4,860 4,976 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,091 5,862 6,030 6,410 All Government (mf. basis) 5,401 1,405 1,166 1,226 All Government (ss. basis) 75 341 339 333 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 46.7 12.6 11.6 10.6 Cheese 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 18.3 49.7 48.4 46.7 All products (mf basis 2/) 1039.1 329.0 297.0 271.0 All products (ss basis 2/) 236.4 625.0 600.0 574.0 Apr-94 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 119.4 120.3 125.7 119.3 American cheese 255.2 240.2 263.2 258.9 Other-than-American cheese 299.1 288.2 330.7 305.0 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 113.1 85.5 109.1 105.1 All products (mf basis 2/) 8155.3 7531.9 8576.9 8283.5 Nonfat dry milk 126.1 98.3 110.4 116.5 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 92.6 116.7 115.8 NA American cheese 249.1 242.7 262.5 NA Other-than-American cheese 320.7 313.9 347.3 NA Nonfat dry milk 65.7 70.2 57.4 NA All products (mf. basis) 12457.0 12207.0 13347.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 248.0 314.0 233.0 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,514 5,649 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 3.3 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 5.8 6.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 7.2 7.5 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 24,952 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 18,013 18,100 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,420 27,000 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,300 5,525 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,697 77,348 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,309 5,380 Milk 150,582 153,626 158,271 161,300 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 156,988 162,200 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,136 500 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.5 68.6 69.6 Pork 52.3 53.1 53.7 53.3 Broilers 68.4 69.8 71.8 75.5 Turkeys 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.8 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 212.1 216.5 221.7 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 238.8 240.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 65-68 63-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 66-69 62-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 37-38 35-37 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 38-39 37-41 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 51-54 48-53 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 62-64 58-63 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 64-67 62-67 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.2-12.7 12.0-13.0 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.2-11.7 11.0-11.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,683 1,715 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,371 2,340 2,340 Pork exports 435 531 580 565 Pork imports 740 743 715 680 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,758 4,015 Turkey exports 212 245 248 258 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,467 5,496 5,527 5,565 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 7.0 7.1 7.2 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,300 6,550 6,225 Pork 4,488 4,400 4,425 4,700 Broilers 6,145 6,375 6,500 6,400 Turkeys 1,195 1,330 1,395 1,380 Total Meat 17,981 18,651 19,103 18,962 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,310 1,320 1,365 Milk (mf basis) 38,971 41,200 39,200 38,900 Commercial use 37,688 39,900 39,900 39,500 Net removals 1,036 700 200 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.5 17.9 16.8 Pork 13.1 13.2 13.4 14.0 Broilers 17.5 18.0 18.5 17.8 Turkeys 3.6 4.0 4.6 6.4 Total Meat 51.6 53.7 55.3 55.9 Eggs, number 59.3 58.8 59.3 61.4 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64-65 61-65 63-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 64-66 64-68 64-70 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37-39 36-38 35-37 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 37-38 39-41 36-40 Broiler,12 City 51.70 52-53 52-56 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 60-61 62-66 64-70 Eggs, New York 65.20 62-63 64-68 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.1-12.4 11.8-12.4 12.5-13.5 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.0-11.3 10.9-11.5 11.4-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 420 445 450 Beef/veal imports 572 625 600 543 Pork exports 187 133 120 140 Pork imports 173 180 180 182 Broiler exports 873 930 950 1,005 Turkey exports 53 59 65 71 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 END_END_END