HDR101180020130mmdd950900 LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY August 23, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-20. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Red meat and poultry exports continue on a record setting pace, helping to offset the Nation's growing trade deficit. During the first half of 1995, the U.S. became a net exporter of pork, poultry exports continued to grow at a double digit rate, and the beef balance of trade narrowed considerably. Through June 30, meat product exports already were valued at over $2.9 billion versus $5.3 billion in 1994. Beef Exports Strengthen, Imports Decline Expanding U.S. beef production and declining prices are contributing to changes in the domestic and international trade matrix. U.S. beef exports are forecast to reach 80 percent of import volume this year, compared with 43 percent in 1990. U.S. beef exports in first-half 1995 were up over 9 percent from a year earlier, while lower U.S. prices and larger supplies of lower quality fed beef caused imports to decline 13 percent. U.S. beef exporters continue to focus primarily on the Pacific Rim. However, shipments to other countries, while only 7 percent of exports, were up over 50 percent compared to a year earlier. Japan remains the primary destination for U.S. beef, taking over 55 percent in first-half 1995, with nearly 18 percent to Canada, and 15 percent to South Korea. Although shipments to Mexico were down more than 50 percent from a year earlier, Mexico remains the fourth largest destination at 5 percent. The U.S. continues to be the primary market for New Zealand beef, which has nearly replaced Australia as the leading exporter to the U.S. Imports from Australia were down sharply during first-half 1995 due to production cutbacks and higher shipments to other markets with more favorable prices. In the mid-year Cattle report, producers indicated they are holding fewer replacement heifers due to sharp declines in feeder cattle prices since early spring. This eventually will slow the pace of beef cow herd expansion, yet slaughter data provide no hint of beef cow liquidation. Consequently, beef supplies will continue to expand for at least the next couple of years. Larger production in combination with record supplies of competing meats will pressure cattle prices downward. Heifers entering beef cow herds in first-half 1995 declined 10 percent from the 1993 peak, but remain large. And while the decline in beef heifer replacements is welcome news, it has sharply increased the supply of heifers available to go on feed and in feedlots. This year's calf crop was estimated at 41.5 million head, up 2 percent from a year earlier, but down slightly as a proportion of the January 1 cow inventory. This year's calf crop ratio (calves born per 100 cows) will decline to 91.0 percent, versus 92.2 percent in 1994. Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on July 1 increased 1.1 million head from a year earlier to 44.4 million head, the largest for this date since 1986. U.S. cattle on feed on July 1 also rose nearly 5 percent from a year earlier to 11 million head. Expanded feedlot inventories on July 1 will raise fed marketings about 3 percent this summer and fall. The largest marketings will occur in August through September, as July marketings in the 7 monthly reporting States were up only 1 percent from a year earlier. Marketings are forecast to rise 5 to 6 percent from a year earlier in first-quarter 1996, and 3 to 4 percent in the remaining quarters. Beef cow slaughter shows little hint of increased culling and/or liquidation despite the decline in beef replacement heifers on July 1. Cow slaughter increased nearly 4 percent in the first half of 1995 from a year earlier. But as a proportion of the January 1 cow inventory, cow slaughter is little changed from 1994 after accounting for increased slaughter cow imports from Canada, and to a lesser extent Mexico. A similar situation is expected in second-half 1995. Cow slaughter is expected to rise another 5 to 6 percent in 1996, and with declining replacement heifer numbers, likely will begin to level off cow inventories. Forage conditions and 1996 crop development will be key to slaughter above these levels, as beef supplies will remain large with prices continuing under pressure. Imports of slaughter cows from Mexico are expected to decline in late 1995 and in 1996 if moisture conditions improve. Cow imports from Canada for immediate slaughter also are expected to decline as renovated Canadian slaughter facilities owned by U.S. firms resume normal steer and heifer slaughter and expand to double shifts. Older, less efficient plants in Canada that had been slaughtering steers and heifers, will increasingly be forced to compete against each other for cull cows. U.S. Becomes Net Pork Exporter During First Half First-half 1995 pork exports jumped 74 percent above a year earlier, supported by higher shipments to the Pacific Rim, South America, and Russia and other countries of the Former Soviet Union. Commercial sales to Russia have been much stronger than expected. When combined with Export Enhancement Program shipments over the past 6 months, total exports exceeded 100 million pounds on a carcass weight basis. Japan remains the largest destination for U.S. pork, with sales through June up 44 percent from a year earlier. Lower U.S. prices and a declining dollar relative to the yen supported stronger sales during the first half. Continued export strength since June may be in anticipation of higher tariff rates, which are scheduled to go into effect later this fall. Under the terms of the Uruguay Round, Japan can increase its tariff on imported pork if the cumulative quantity imported during the first three quarters of the Japanese fiscal year (JFY) (April-March) exceeds 119 percent of the three preceding years. Pork imports likely will exceed this amount, and the Japanese government could adjust the gate price upward, not to exceed 728.83 yen per cwt. Japanese pork imports are subject to either an ad valorem tariff (currently 4.3 percent) or a variable levy representing the difference between the landed price (c&f) and the gate price, whichever is larger. The current gate price, the average price of containerized pork cuts entering Japan, is 584.69 yen. Raising the gate price by the maximum allowed under the UR would result in about a 25-percent price increase. The increase likely would have a dampening effect on Japanese imports that would last through the end of the JFY (March 1996). Recent appreciation of the dollar relative to the yen will increase the price of U.S. pork, and lower the pricing advantage currently enjoyed over competing exporters, most notably Denmark. The U.S. share of the Japanese market stood at 16 percent for all pork and 42 percent for fresh/chilled through May. Taiwan, the largest supplier, accounted for about 50 percent of Japan's total pork imports and 53 percent of the fresh/chilled market. Imports from Denmark, which are primarily frozen product, accounted for 23 percent of total Japanese imports through May. As expected, U.S. pork exports to Mexico have been exceptionally weak since the beginning of the year due to the peso devaluation. Exports through June were down 47 percent and will continue to be weak through the remainder of the year. Although there has been a slight strengthening of the peso since March, slow economic growth and a weaker peso preclude a return to predevaluation exports for several years. Strong export sales in August, although still undocumented, likely are supporting higher wholesale and cash hog prices. Live hogs in the Midwest traded in the upper $40's per cwt all month, while wholesale pork cutout values advanced nearly $4 per cwt to the highest weekly average since August 1991. Wholesale support came primarily from surging pork loin prices, which have jumped nearly $6 per cwt over the past month. Some of these loins likely are destined for Japanese freezers in anticipation of higher prices this fall. Export growth will be slower during the remainder of 1995 as Japanese buyers fill near-term needs and shipments to Russia are limited to commercial sales. Nonetheless, 1995 exports are expected to increase about 21 percent from a year earlier to about 642 million pounds. Shipments next year will not be as brisk, dropping about 5 percent below 1995. Broiler Export Growth Continues Broiler exports continued to surge during first-half 1995, rising 36 percent above a year earlier to 1.7 billion pounds. Exports are expected to slow in the second half, but remain 27 percent above last year's record. Higher exports are forecast in 1996 due to continued large domestic supplies, slightly weaker prices, and a general easing of trade restrictions. Exports will absorb nearly 14 percent of U.S. broiler production this year and 15 percent in 1996. Russia accounted for 36 percent of first-half 1995 broiler exports, with shipments up 90 percent from first half 1994. Broiler exports to China, including a large proportion of the shipments to Hong Kong, accounted for another 28 percent of U.S. exports, nearly 50 percent more than last year. Sales to China have been boosted by the rapid growth in the general economy which has raised incomes and spending on food items. Exports to Japan were up 10 percent from the previous year, aided by appreciation of the yen. Growth in U.S. exports has led to increased opposition from domestic producers in many importing countries. As of July 1, import tariffs on poultry products were set to increase in Russia. If enforced, the tariffs could slow exports to Russia during the second half of the year. Increased sales to South Africa caused the domestic industry to call for restrictions on imports. Smaller increases in the broiler hatch in late June and an extended period of hot weather this summer cut production nearly 1 percent from a year earlier during the first 2 weeks of August. Lighter bird weights accounted for most of the decrease. Wholesale prices advanced over the past month due to production declines, with breast meat prices up 6 percent and leg quarters 10 percent higher. Turkey Exports Stagnant First-half turkey exports were down slightly from a year earlier, due primarily to smaller sales to Mexico. Turkey exports had been growing rapidly in recent years, increasing from 103 million pounds in 1991 to an estimated 248 million in 1995. Continued growth in U.S. production in 1996 and relatively stable prices should support higher exports to several Asian markets, although at a slower growth rate than in 1995. A gradual recovery in exports to Mexico also is possible. Mexico remains the largest market for U.S. turkey exports, accounting for 57 million pounds or 50 percent of first-half shipments. However, the peso devaluation caused sales to decline 14 percent from a year earlier. The dollar value of these imports fell even more as buyers substituted low-priced ground turkey for higher-value dark meat parts. Smaller shipments to Mexico have partially been offset by larger sales to Korea and China (Hong Kong). A favorable exchange rate and continued economic growth should boost 1996 sales as well. Turkey exports to Russia and Poland were down considerably from a year earlier in the first half of 1995, and shipments are expected to remain lower through 1996. Turkey prices have remained relatively stable this summer despite potential weight loss problems associated with the hot weather. Most of the turkeys grown this summer are contracted for delivery during the fall holidays, so there is not the immediate demand for supplies as with broilers and eggs. Prospects for larger production later in the year also are tempering price increases. Egg Exports Increasing Total egg exports rose 12 percent in the first half of 1995 from a year earlier, due to stronger egg product sales. Shell egg exports declined over the same period due to lower Export Enhancement Program sales to Hong Kong and smaller table and hatching egg exports to Canada and Mexico. Japan, Canada, and Mexico, the three largest markets for egg products, all took greater shipments through June due to lower prices. Exports of egg products are expected to remain strong during the second half of the year. Egg products are becoming a larger percentage of both exports and domestic use, accounting for about 50 percent of egg exports. Breaking use in 1995 is estimated to be over a fourth of U.S. egg production (excluding hatching eggs). Egg prices have been very volatile this summer due to the hot weather. About 1.5 percent of the production flock was lost during the July heat wave. Wholesale large egg prices in New York increased 20 cents per dozen during July. However, by mid-August prices had fallen 17 cents per dozen, and the market probably has adjusted to the decrease in flock size. Commercial Use of Dairy Products To Increase Slow economic expansion and retail dairy prices near a year earlier are expected to generate modest gains in commercial use of most dairy products during the rest of 1995. Projected sales of skim solids are not expected to equal anticipated growth in milk production, but tight milkfat markets are expected to hold second-half milk prices near a year earlier. First-half commercial use of skim solids rose less than 2 percent from a year earlier. Cheese sales continued modest rises, with American varieties up 2 percent and other varieties up more than 4 percent. However, fluid milk sales were unchanged and use of nonfat dry milk in processed foods was sluggish. Sales of cottage cheese and frozen products declined. In contrast, commercial use of milkfat soared almost 6 percent during the first half, due to a 20-percent jump in butter exports and stronger domestic sales. Domestic and export markets are expected to absorb second-half milkfat supplies at prices well above a year earlier. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jul-94 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 7,654 8,790 8,630 8,113 Net placements 1,539 1,667 1,351 1,328 Marketings 1,730 1,827 1,868 1,742 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 536,393 562,946 562,055 555,608 Chicks hatched (000)/2 646,456 689,650 669,390 670,000 Hatching egg layers/1 47,876 49,769 49,174 48,946 Pullets placed (000) 6,104 6,135 6,178 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,357 5,314 5,456 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 37,392 37,268 38,145 38,908 Poults placed (000) 28,244 29,460 29,916 29,097 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 439 439 421 433 Table egg layers, (000)/1 236,856 240,381 236,670 235,168 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.4 71.1 71.3 71.3 Chicks hatched (000) 29,613 36,335 33,392 30,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,397 9,406 8,890 7,200 ESTIMATED RETURNS Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 70.37 62.95 60.43 58.26 Selling price 68.04 63.08 61.81 61.80 Net margin -2.33 0.13 1.38 3.54 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 38.59 36.64 36.80 36.63 Selling price 42.72 43.28 47.69 48.60 Net margin 4.13 6.64 10.89 11.97 Broiler Wholesale cost 50.26 48.44 48.60 49.12 Wholesale price 54.65 55.88 58.76 62.00 Net margin 4.39 7.44 10.16 12.88 Turkey Wholesale cost 63.90 60.20 60.75 60.98 Wholesale price 67.67 63.49 65.18 68.50 Net margin 3.77 3.29 4.43 7.52 Egg Wholesale cost 65.80 66.51 67.48 68.75 Wholesale price 72.02 65.45 75.49 77.00 Net margin 6.22 -1.06 8.01 8.25 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 68.04 63.08 61.81 61.80 Nebraska Direct 66.42 63.74 62.54 62.35 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 43.74 40.03 37.50 39.40 Utility boning 43.74 36.13 34.27 36.40 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 88.15 74.19 71.00 71.95 600-650 lb. 82.95 68.94 68.78 68.75 750-800 lb. 77.45 67.06 66.20 66.25 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 81.09 67.75 64.88 65.00 700-750 lb. 73.83 63.75 63.13 63.45 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 42.33 42.79 47.10 48.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 42.72 43.28 47.69 48.60 Sows 6 Markets 31.06 30.21 30.37 34.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 29.38 30.16 28.87 30.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 79.50 81.63 83.70 88.00 Ewes, Good 39.00 35.06 34.40 33.50 Feeder lambs, Choice 70.08 82.63 79.80 82.50 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.13 2.68 2.84 2.65 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.70 4.72 4.98 4.64 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 178.60 160.40 170.45 166.50 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 89.90 90.60 86.30 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 82.90 83.90 80.60 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 108.38 107.65 103.03 103.10 Choice 1-3 700-850# 106.04 108.16 103.24 102.60 Select 1-3 700-850# 99.63 99.20 95.79 93.55 Cutter Cow 82.31 74.05 69.18 68.30 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 111.17 93.39 85.85 85.55 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 111.20 87.75 86.31 86.75 Hide & offal value 8.45 8.89 8.69 8.59 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 186.36 161.28 164.48 169.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 59.33 60.98 63.66 67.60 Loins, 14-18 lb. 112.86 118.81 124.65 130.20 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 39.60 37.94 43.10 51.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 54.92 48.40 59.64 64.30 Trimmings, 72% fresh 40.20 43.64 42.57 47.65 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 170.35 179.50 180.25 180.25 55-65 lb., Choice 173.05 179.50 180.25 180.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 54.65 55.88 58.76 62.00 Georgia dock 54.75 53.51 55.46 58.50 Northeast Breast, boneless 191.36 181.15 194.48 200.00 Breast, Ribs on 81.85 90.41 97.95 102.00 Legs, whole 48.29 50.04 50.25 53.00 Leg quarters 30.92 33.42 35.53 40.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 69.78 64.91 66.73 70.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 66.39 62.76 64.78 68.00 Drumsticks 30.42 19.95 18.17 22.00 Wings, full cut 26.52 24.23 24.39 25.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 72.02 65.45 75.49 77.00 New York 67.98 64.78 75.60 73.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jul-94 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 280.1 282.2 283.4 287.4 Beef - All Fresh 262.2 261.5 257.6 258.1 Ground Beef 145.6 132.2 133.3 136.5 Rib roast 493.6 504.0 491.8 500.1 T-bone steak 586.0 593.1 599.8 618.4 Pork 200.5 191.0 189.0 191.4 Bacon 200.0 191.8 189.6 190.6 Chops 324.6 312.2 313.7 321.2 Picnic 113.3 110.2 106.1 108.7 Chicken - Composite 147.7 143.3 142.2 140.9 Whole, fresh 92.0 89.1 90.8 91.9 Breast - bone in 208.8 200.5 197.9 194.6 Leg quarter 115.9 114.1 113.4 113.0 Turkey; whole frozen 101.5 102.7 105.3 105.0 Eggs, Grade A, Large 81.5 81.9 82.5 87.9 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 148.4 152.2 152.5 152.5 All food 144.2 148.3 147.9 148.1 All meat 134.7 134.7 134.0 134.2 Beef & veal 134.4 134.9 133.9 133.5 Pork 134.7 131.8 132.2 133.7 Poultry 144.1 141.6 142.9 142.5 Dairy Products 131.8 132.8 132.2 132.9 Fluid milk & cream 132.5 132.5 132.1 131.9 Manufactured products 131.6 133.8 132.9 134.4 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 23.2 27.5 31.5 29.4 Wholesale to retail 119.7 121.8 117.8 128.9 Farmers share (%) 49.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 32.4 33.5 30.4 26.9 Wholesale to retail 100.6 98.1 89.8 89.8 Farmers share (%) 34.0 31.0 36.0 39.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 26.9 28.2 26.9 25.1 Turkey 28.7 32.7 32.8 30.8 Eggs 15.4 22.2 19.1 14.4 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Aug-94 Aug-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 /* Aug-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 16,029 16,563 2,279 2,082 2,292 Veal 184 202 26 24 26 Pork 11,207 11,707 1,464 1,303 1,522 Lamb 208 188 22 19 18 Total red meat 27,628 28,660 3,791 3,428 3,858 Broilers 15,738 16,724 2,227 1,975 2,250 Other chicken 342 339 45 39 40 Turkeys 3,234 3,433 482 450 490 Total poultry 19,314 20,497 2,754 2,464 2,780 Total meat & poultry 46,942 49,157 6,545 5,892 6,638 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 22,627 23,544 3,243 2,927 3,202 Steers 12,139 12,436 1,779 1,591 1,744 Heifers 6,309 6,822 923 859 945 Beef Cows 1,844 1,959 257 216 231 Dairy Cows 1,908 1,879 222 207 221 Bulls and stags 428 449 62 54 61 Calves 803 918 118 113 122 Sheep 3,308 2,982 360 296 285 Hogs 60,999 63,256 7,906 7,081 8,300 Barrows & gilts 57,852 60,059 7,484 6,688 7,830 Sows 2,527 2,567 344 321 376 Broilers 4,696,187 4,965,174 657,652 590,000 680,000 Turkeys 180,464 183,603 25,849 23,000 27,500 Aug-94 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 /* Aug-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 731 705 709 717 721 Calves 224 228 225 216 215 Sheep 60 64 63 63 63 Hogs 183 187 186 184 183 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 388.9 392.2 359.1 352.3 358.1 Pork 393.7 422.3 434.9 431.1 412.0 Bellies 57.7 78.5 77.9 67.6 47.9 Hams 108.1 57.8 85.5 110.0 112.5 Total chicken 417.2 520.3 526.3 537.3 514.9 Turkey 588.1 480.4 553.4 618.6 670.1 Frozen eggs 19.0 17.3 18.1 22.9 20.6 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS May-95 Jun-95 Jan - Jan - Jun-94 Jun-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 49,868 58,287 430,501 349,641 New Zealand 58,497 66,716 343,290 347,536 Canada 35,031 33,355 238,275 208,009 Brazil 8,236 8,576 82,680 31,545 Argentina 13,085 13,042 71,376 83,552 Central America 9,707 7,276 104,568 79,964 Other 1,565 1,729 12,910 11,319 Total 175,988 188,981 1,283,600 1,111,567 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 87,486 86,472 409,197 455,304 Canada 27,582 27,141 125,280 143,612 Mexico 9,512 7,807 95,425 41,718 Korea, Rep. 25,511 30,491 82,313 122,496 Caribbean 803 889 5,030 5,999 Other 9,099 9,428 32,642 50,867 Total 159,993 162,227 749,888 819,996 Cattle Imports Mexico 178,923 106,036 608,883 1,087,198 Canada 102,125 114,320 501,427 586,133 Over 700 lbs. 95,054 108,675 462,975 549,055 500-700 lbs. 714 602 6,876 3,508 Total 281,096 220,356 1,110,311 1,673,380 Cattle Exports Mexico 853 524 54,399 5,544 Canada 3,939 5,172 34,336 35,686 Total 5,179 7,120 94,918 45,038 Lamb Imports Australia 1,682 1,112 12,390 9,439 New Zealand 1,996 1,780 7,281 10,920 Total 3,733 3,010 19,676 20,668 Mutton Imports 2,560 1,719 7,044 13,091 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 8/20/94 8/19/95 % Chg Canada 241,978 216,074 -10.7% TRQ Countries 797,095 689,719 -13.5% Australia 416,861 312,356 -25.1% New Zealand 286,257 310,286 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ May-95 Jun-95 Jan - Jan - Jun-94 Jun-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 38,991 35,975 222,293 229,363 Denmark 11,713 12,572 143,302 75,683 Poland 436 1,141 6,346 6,275 Hungary 931 1,169 11,708 5,108 Netherlands 1,123 652 9,766 5,624 Other 3,514 3,004 18,006 18,100 Total 56,707 54,514 411,421 340,153 Pork Exports Japan 33,608 29,494 108,786 156,632 Canada 3,537 5,060 17,254 22,953 Mexico 4,916 4,746 65,246 30,433 Caribbean 918 1,382 3,132 5,423 Other 22,545 33,064 24,969 165,617 Total 65,524 73,746 219,387 381,058 Hog Imports Head Canada 122,624 130,906 417,183 682,426 Under 110 lb 53,739 62,679 174,129 306,164 Total 123,363 131,114 418,509 683,909 Hog Exports Total 598 611 31,972 5,209 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 22,093 21,371 105,713 116,039 Mexico 16,522 16,852 105,034 92,504 Hong Kong 66,710 69,576 299,753 441,750 Singapore 4,673 3,788 34,297 23,954 Canada 7,756 7,054 33,276 34,138 Former USSR 101,718 89,215 331,207 630,245 Total 286,317 270,718 1,269,361 1,728,930 Turkey Exports Mexico 10,295 10,385 66,823 57,362 S. Korea 4,686 2,908 8,844 18,445 Hong Kong 1,510 1,730 2,936 8,911 Total 19,763 19,470 112,658 111,756 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,411 8,319 50,080 49,310 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jul-94 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,260 11,936 11,461 11,415 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,104 8,093 8,104 8,104 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,389 1,475 1,414 1,409 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,020 13,857 13,326 13,199 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.20 12.40 12.10 12.20 Milk for fluid use 12.20 12.40 12.20 12.20 Manuf. grade milk 11.10 11.00 11.10 11.20 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.41 11.12 11.42 11.23 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 66.9 66.5 66.9 74.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 129.1 122.1 126.9 126.7 Barrels 125.7 118.4 119.1 122.8 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 105.6 106.8 106.8 106.7 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,400 2,135 2,150 2,363 Nonfat dry milk 1,700 2,175 2,232 2,183 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 23.6 29.3 39.1 43.0 Commercial American cheese 357.3 334.7 343.9 339.7 Other cheese 163.6 131.0 121.6 126.0 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 144.6 127.1 129.0 141.9 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,363 5,034 5,277 5,352 All commercial (ss. basis) 7,147 6,405 6,439 6,581 All Government (mf. basis) 5,766 1,119 942 800 All Government (ss. basis) 91 331 311 266 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 3.2 10.6 5.6 3.2 Cheese 0.2 0.4 0.3 Nonfat dry milk 29.0 46.7 23.6 22.4 All products (mf basis 2/) 96.1 271.3 141.5 84.3 All products (ss basis 2/) 359.4 574.3 289.9 270.1 Jun-94 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 99.2 119.3 116.5 99.5 American cheese 258.8 258.9 273.3 264.4 Other-than-American cheese 299.9 305.0 324.2 323.1 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 129.1 105.2 112.7 125.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 8349.1 8284.3 8637.5 8393.6 Nonfat dry milk 118.6 116.5 130.0 122.3 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 86.3 101.9 96.4 90.3 American cheese 254.9 255.3 267.2 261.8 Other-than-American cheese 322.1 331.2 357.7 344.5 Nonfat dry milk 71.4 38.6 81.5 85.8 All products (mf. basis) 12769.0 12927.0 13452.0 13156.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 229.0 214.0 253.0 262.0 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,514 5,649 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 5.8 6.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 24,964 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 18,032 18,400 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,324 26,825 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,223 5,400 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,564 77,361 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,309 5,380 Milk 150,582 153,626 157,250 161,344 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 156,089 162,200 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,054 500 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.5 68.0 68.9 Pork 52.3 53.1 53.5 54.0 Broilers 68.4 69.8 71.7 74.9 Turkeys 17.8 18.0 18.3 19.4 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 212.1 215.4 220.8 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 238.8 240.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66-67 62-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 66-68 63-68 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 35-36 34-37 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 40-41 37-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 53-55 48-53 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 63-65 58-63 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 68-69 63-68 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.4-12.6 12.0-13.0 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.4-11.6 11.0-11.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,700 1,745 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,371 2,120 2,080 Pork exports 435 531 642 610 Pork imports 740 743 698 680 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,668 4,015 Turkey exports 212 245 248 258 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,470 5,496 5,527 5,565 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 7.0 7.1 7.2 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,550 6,225 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,425 4,725 Broilers 6,147 6,352 6,425 6,400 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,350 1,380 Total Meat 17,984 18,600 18,986 18,994 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,310 1,320 1,365 Milk (mf basis) 38,950 40,488 38,950 38,862 Commercial use 37,667 39,497 39,425 39,500 Net removals 1,036 710 174 134 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.2 17.7 16.7 Pork 13.1 13.0 13.4 14.0 Broilers 17.5 18.0 18.4 17.8 Turkeys 3.6 4.0 4.3 6.4 Total Meat 51.6 53.2 54.7 55.9 Eggs, number 59.3 58.8 59.3 61.4 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62-64 64-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 64-66 63-67 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 33-35 31-33 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 43-45 38-40 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 57-59 51-55 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 65-67 67-71 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 72-74 70-74 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.33 12.2-12.5 12.5-13.1 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.2-11.5 11.5-12.1 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 435 445 452 Beef/veal imports 572 530 515 503 Pork exports 187 165 140 150 Pork imports 173 175 175 175 Broiler exports 873 880 910 1,005 Turkey exports 53 59 65 71 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,603 5,635 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.6 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 6.0 6.0 10-Year Bond,% 7.2 7.2 Production, million lb. Beef 6,125 6,425 Pork 4,475 4,450 Broilers 6,500 6,700 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 Total Meat 18,586 19,139 Eggs, mil doz. 1,335 1,330 Milk (mf basis) 40,300 41,816 Commercial use 40,350 41,000 Net removals 141 157 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.5 17.3 Pork 13.0 13.0 Broilers 18.3 18.8 Turkeys 4.2 4.0 Total Meat 52.9 54.0 Eggs, number 60.0 59.3 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 64-70 63-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 64-70 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 35-37 36-38 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38-42 36-40 Broiler,12 City 48-52 49-53 Turkeys, Eastern 56-60 57-61 Eggs, New York 65-71 60-66 Milk, all at plant 12.3-13.3 11.2-12.2 Milk, M-W 11.0-12.0 10.4-11.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 400 435 Beef/veal imports 520 520 Pork exports 150 155 Pork imports 165 175 Broiler exports 950 990 Turkey exports 56 60 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1995 End-end-end