LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY September 25, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-21. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cheese Prices May Falter The large increase in August cheese prices continued into September, but the prices may not be sustainable. The jumps were triggered by continued growth in sales while milk production was limited by heat stress. If milk production rebounds as expected this autumn, the seasonal price peak might come quite early. Cheese prices are expected to decline gradually during late autumn and winter. Wholesale butter prices, already higher than any time since early 1992, may not have peaked. Holiday demand is expected to be strong and pipeline stocks probably were depleted during summer. The export market will undergird the domestic market this autumn, but is not expected to have a near term impact on prices. Butter prices will decline after holiday needs are met in December. However, export demand is projected to hold butter prices well above a year earlier during the first half of 1996. Nonfat dry milk prices are not expected to rise much seasonally. Large stocks, strong output, and the smaller Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) will tend to mute seasonal price strength. Winter prices probably will stay near the support purchase price, at least in the West. Manufacturing milk values will rise in the near term, reflecting recent advances in cheese prices and seasonally smaller production. Manufacturing values may erode in late 1995, but large declines are not expected until after yearend. Average milk prices during the rest of 1995 are projected to be slightly above a year earlier, but the 1995 average price of all milk is expected to drop about 3 percent below 1994. A slight further decline is projected for 1996. In both years, growth in skim solids sales is not expected to match expansion in milk production, outweighing the increases in milkfat values. Broiler Prices Falling Increased broiler production during early September and reduced seasonal demand after Labor Day led to wholesale price declines for whole birds and breast meat. August prices averaged considerably above expectations as year-over-year production increases were small due to heat effects on bird weights. Prices are expected to continue to weaken into the fall. Higher weekly production during September suggests the industry has recovered from this summers's heat stress, but one less slaughter day this year in September will hold down year-to-year production increases for the quarter. Third-quarter production is forecast to increase about 2 percent from a year earlier. Broiler egg sets for the 15 weekly reporting states for the first week of September were 4 percent above last year, the strongest year-over-year increase since March. Stronger prices this summer and very favorable returns probably encouraged producers to increase egg sets. Year to date broiler exports totaled 2.1 billion pounds, 42 percent higher than last year. Growth in exports on a year-over-year basis likely will decline during the remainder of 1995. Higher tariffs in a number of countries and the rapid gains made in second-half 1994 will begin to shrink year-to-year differences in exports. Turkey Prices Remain Strong Small year-over-year production increases in the third quarter compared to first-half 1995 have led to substantial price strength. Wholesale whole turkey prices moved above a year ago during August and remained 4 cents a pound higher in September. This price strength is unexpected because August 1 stocks were 14 percent higher than a year earlier, and remained 9 percent higher on September 1. Stronger production increases are expected in the fourth quarter as placements during June through August were up 3 percent from 1994. Bird weights also are expected to increase as cooler weather moderates the impact of earlier temperature extremes. Between January and July 1995, exports of U.S. turkey products totaled nearly 172 million pounds, up 21 percent from the same period in 1994. The growth has been largely due to greater shipments of mechanically deboned turkey (MDT) products. The largest destinations for MDT have been Russia and Estonia, where it likely is transhipped to Russia. These two countries account for over half of all MDT shipments. Exports of MDT have boosted total turkey exports on a quantity basis, but have had only a slight impact on the value of shipments. Turkey Export Calculation Changes U.S. turkey production has risen from 4.5 billion pounds in 1990 to an estimated 5.2 billion in 1995. During this period the industry has shifted a larger proportion of retail sales to prepackaged turkey parts and away from whole birds. The additional processing required to cut up and package turkey cuts, such as breast and legs, has increased the supply of edible trimmings, which processors sell in several forms, including mechanically deboned turkey (MDT). One promising market for MDT products is the export market. MDT is a relatively low-cost meat protein that can easily be incorporated into sausage and other meat products. To reflect the total trade in turkey products, turkey exports have been expanded to include MDT products. Turkey exports now include whole turkeys, turkey parts, and other processed turkey products. Previously the MDT had been included in "other" poultry exports rather than turkey. Egg Prices Strong The table egg production flock is about 2 percent smaller than a year ago, and egg prices have increased more than 10 percent. Price strength is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, with prices remaining about 10 percent higher than in 1994. Egg production this year is projected to fall 1 percent below 1994. The production flock is not expected to reach 1994 levels again until spring 1996. Egg-type chick hatch should increase in the second half of 1995, and recent price strength and higher profits should encourage increased demand for pullets. Cattle Prices Strong in Spite of Large Supplies The beef sector remains on a sound footing in spite of record total meat supplies and prospects for another year of high feeding costs. Corn prices in September are up over a third from a year earlier, but forage conditions have been very favorable and stocker cattle are remaining on pasture for additional weight gain. Feeder cattle prices, although down from a year earlier, have remained relatively stable over the past several months due to continued availability of forage. Feedlot placements in the 7 monthly reporting States were down 11 percent from a year earlier in July-August. However, feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots are large and as forage supplies decline seasonally, additional cattle will become available to go on feed. Not only will numbers increase in early fall, but many of these cattle will be much heavier and fleshier than normal. Recent rains in the High Plains winter wheat grazing areas, plus good wintering forage prospects in many areas, are likely to result in a larger than average proportion of lighter calves remaining on pasture this fall. Although the number of cattle on feed in the 7 monthly reporting States on September 1 was down slightly from a year earlier, large numbers will need to be marketed over the next couple of months. Steer and heifer slaughter in September, after adjusting for one less slaughter day, likely was up 9 percent. Large numbers of market-ready cattle, and seasonally increasing slaughter weights will pressure prices. Steer weights continue to lag year- earlier averages, while heifer weights are down only slightly. Cow slaughter is increasing seasonally, but through the third quarter is up less than 3 percent from a year earlier. However, heifer slaughter is up sharply from a year earlier, reflecting the sharp drop-off in the number of heifers being retained for herd expansion. This trend is expected to continue in 1996, along with a sharp increase in cow slaughter. A more than seasonal break in high value beef cut prices over the last month suggests that export sales may be waning and provide less price support during the remainder of the year. On August 1, Japan increased its tariff rate on imported beef from 48.1 percent to 50 percent. The higher tariff rate will remain in effect through March 1966. Hog Slaughter Begins Seasonal Climb Weekly hog slaughter finally exceeded 1.9 million head this month, the first time since early March 1995. Slaughter is forecast to remain at this level or higher for the rest of the year. Hog weights also should begin to climb seasonally in September, gaining 1-2 pounds by the end of November. Barrow and gilt weights likely hit their low for the year near 177 pounds (dressed weight) in mid-August. They are expected to average near 183 pounds later this fall. In spite of rising slaughter numbers, live hog prices remained near $50 per cwt through mid-September, supported by rising ham and trimmings prices and continued strength in several other cuts. Loin prices have dropped nearly $10 per cwt from their record August average, but still are trading $15 above September 1994. Export sales likely have slowed, and domestic buyers are unwilling to pay higher premiums due to seasonally increasing supplies and more favorable prices on beef cuts that also are readily available and trending lower. Ham prices showed surprising price strength in recent weeks, gaining 15 percent in the past month and over 60 percent from their annual low last spring. Average seasonal price increases for this period normally range from 15 to 20 percent. The magnitude of this year's advance seems premature and unusual if production rebounds as expected. Ham freezer stocks on August 1 were record large, and increased another 14 percent by September 1. Near term retail featuring is unlikely, so recent price gains likely reflect purchases for freezer inventories. The strength of current hog prices, which have traded above cash breakeven levels since early summer, may be creating a strong incentive to expand breeding herds. Farrowings during September-November already were expanding, according to producer surveys taken in early June, and additional gilts could have been bred this summer to farrow late in the September-November quarter. If farrowings increase beyond current estimates, production next spring and summer would increase beyond the 1 and 5 percent already expected. Further information on the 1996 outlook for pork supplies will be available following release of the September 1 Hogs and Pigs report on September 29. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 7,463 8,630 8,113 7,699 Net placements 1,790 1,351 1,328 1,638 Marketings 1,767 1,868 1,742 1,884 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 534,393 562,055 555,608 558,473 Chicks hatched (000)/2 653,710 669,390 672,822 672,608 Hatching egg layers/1 48,527 49,174 48,946 48,472 Pullets placed (000) 6,064 6,178 6,302 6,464 Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,186 5,456 4,874 4,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 34,327 38,145 38,908 35,506 Poults placed (000) 26,331 29,916 29,079 26,563 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 445 421 431 431 Table egg layers, (000)/1 237,314 236,670 235,190 232,864 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.8 71.3 71.3 71.1 Chicks hatched (000) 31,295 33,392 28,682 30,399 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,696 8,890 7,004 8,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 66.52 60.51 58.34 58.45 Selling price 66.79 61.81 61.95 63.75 Net margin 0.27 1.30 3.61 5.30 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 38.73 36.80 36.63 36.71 Selling price 35.86 47.69 49.68 49.35 Net margin -2.87 10.89 13.05 12.64 Broiler Wholesale cost 48.52 48.60 49.12 49.91 Wholesale price 55.80 58.76 61.77 62.00 Net margin 7.28 10.16 12.65 12.09 Turkey Wholesale cost 63.80 60.75 60.98 61.81 Wholesale price 70.15 65.18 68.18 72.50 Net margin 6.35 4.43 7.20 10.69 Egg Wholesale cost 64.83 67.48 68.75 68.17 Wholesale price 70.97 75.49 77.19 80.00 Net margin 6.14 8.01 8.44 11.83 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 66.79 61.81 61.95 63.75 Nebraska Direct 66.21 62.54 62.18 63.40 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 40.56 37.50 39.16 36.50 Utility boning 40.56 34.27 36.39 34.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 81.94 71.00 67.40 67.65 600-650 lb. 76.63 68.78 65.30 66.00 750-800 lb. 73.66 66.20 64.10 65.80 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 74.88 64.88 67.30 59.75 700-750 lb. 71.03 63.13 60.00 62.90 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 35.46 47.10 49.43 49.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 35.86 47.69 49.68 49.35 Sows 6 Markets 27.78 30.37 35.92 35.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 24.71 28.87 30.00 37.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 76.08 83.70 87.00 80.00 Ewes, Good 38.44 34.40 33.29 31.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 67.94 79.80 81.67 80.50 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.08 2.84 2.68 2.80 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.05 4.98 4.66 4.86 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 174.50 170.45 166.82 179.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 89.50 86.30 85.20 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 82.00 80.60 64.10 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 105.49 103.03 102.55 105.40 Choice 1-3 700-850# 102.16 103.24 101.78 103.75 Select 1-3 700-850# 96.72 95.79 92.98 97.00 Cutter Cow 79.82 69.18 74.90 63.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 107.67 85.85 86.61 83.50 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 111.44 86.31 88.90 90.00 Hide & offal value 8.97 8.69 8.59 8.31 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 203.63 164.48 173.14 190.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 54.61 63.66 67.91 67.45 Loins, 14-18 lb. 105.34 124.65 127.98 117.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 31.50 43.10 52.42 53.70 Hams, 20-26 lb. 49.22 59.64 64.27 71.80 Trimmings, 72% fresh 37.58 42.57 48.78 51.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 159.50 180.25 180.25 170.25 55-65 lb., Choice 165.25 180.25 180.25 170.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 55.80 58.76 61.77 62.00 Georgia dock 55.22 55.46 58.62 60.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 181.74 194.48 202.40 197.00 Breast, Ribs on 87.57 97.95 102.61 93.00 Legs, whole 50.61 50.25 53.28 56.00 Leg quarters 33.99 35.53 39.99 41.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 71.93 66.73 69.93 73.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 68.98 64.78 68.54 73.00 Drumsticks 31.82 18.17 22.42 28.00 Wings, full cut 31.30 24.39 25.10 30.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 70.97 75.49 77.19 80.00 New York 66.69 75.60 72.80 77.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 278.4 283.4 287.4 284.4 Beef - All Fresh 261.7 257.6 258.4 256.3 Ground Beef 146.0 133.3 136.5 132.8 Rib roast 483.7 491.8 500.1 495.9 T-bone steak 565.8 599.8 618.4 612.7 Pork 199.1 189.0 191.4 197.3 Bacon 198.7 189.6 190.6 196.8 Chops 323.1 313.7 321.2 325.6 Picnic 111.5 106.1 108.7 112.8 Chicken - Composite 144.6 142.2 140.9 141.8 Whole, fresh 90.5 90.8 91.9 90.8 Breast - bone in 206.0 197.9 194.6 194.7 Leg quarter 112.1 113.4 113.0 115.0 Turkey; whole frozen 102.3 105.3 105.0 106.0 Eggs, Grade A, Large 89.5 82.5 87.9 98.4 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 149.0 152.5 152.5 152.9 All food 144.8 147.9 148.1 148.4 All meat 135.1 134.0 134.2 135.1 Beef & veal 134.9 133.9 133.5 133.0 Pork 134.7 132.2 133.7 136.0 Poultry 141.7 142.9 142.5 142.8 Dairy Products 131.8 132.2 132.9 132.8 Fluid milk & cream 131.9 132.1 131.9 132.1 Manufactured products 132.3 132.9 134.4 134.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 25.8 31.5 29.4 28.2 Wholesale to retail 111.8 117.8 128.9 126.6 Farmers share (%) 51.0 47.0 45.0 46.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 33.9 30.4 26.9 27.8 Wholesale to retail 98.6 89.8 89.8 91.2 Farmers share (%) 33.0 36.0 39.0 40.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 27.4 26.9 25.1 21.0 Turkey 27.6 32.8 30.8 28.8 Eggs 20.6 19.1 14.4 23.2 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Sep-94 Sep-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 18,164 18,779 2,082 2,308 2,200 Veal 207 224 24 26 22 Pork 12,746 13,149 1,299 1,503 1,465 Lamb 231 216 19 23 23 Total red meat 31,348 32,368 3,424 3,860 3,710 Broilers 17,818 18,792 1,919 2,200 2,150 Other chicken 385 380 38 40 42 Turkeys 3,682 3,794 411 450 440 Total poultry 21,884 22,966 2,368 2,690 2,632 Total meat & poultry 53,232 55,334 5,792 6,550 6,342 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 25,569 26,564 2,930 3,160 3,059 Steers 13,701 14,043 1,595 1,729 1,618 Heifers 7,147 7,710 869 936 887 Beef Cows 2,085 2,233 212 252 257 Dairy Cows 2,151 2,129 202 240 236 Bulls and stags 486 509 52 62 61 Calves 912 1,033 114 124 112 Sheep 3,708 3,453 310 372 370 Hogs 69,381 71,234 7,075 8,265 8,020 Barrows & gilts 65,813 67,661 6,684 7,829 7,607 Sows 2,871 2,871 319 354 328 Broilers 5,308,666 5,555,786 578,792 665,000 610,000 Turkeys 205,817 207,445 22,827 27,000 24,500 Sep-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 732 709 717 723 727 Calves 218 225 216 209 213 Sheep 59 63 63 62 61 Hogs 185 186 185 183 183 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 377.2 359.1 352.3 358.7 345.9 Pork 364.0 434.9 431.1 408.1 362.9 Bellies 30.6 77.9 67.6 47.1 17.4 Hams 113.7 85.5 110.0 110.1 126.0 Total chicken 425.6 526.3 537.3 515.4 495.5 Turkey 623.4 553.4 618.6 673.0 680.3 Frozen eggs 19.7 18.1 22.9 20.6 18.2 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jun-95 Jul-95 Jan - Jan - Jul-94 Jul-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 58,287 66,864 520,978 416,506 New Zealand 66,716 71,745 395,735 419,282 Canada 33,355 35,239 277,637 243,248 Brazil 8,576 6,115 91,738 37,661 Argentina 13,042 11,670 83,875 95,223 Central America 7,276 7,336 112,963 87,300 Other 1,729 1,733 15,554 13,053 Total 188,981 200,704 1,498,480 1,312,271 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 86,472 83,724 470,438 539,028 Canada 27,141 28,998 149,321 172,609 Mexico 7,807 10,187 114,536 51,905 Korea, Rep. 30,491 23,900 96,288 146,396 Caribbean 889 743 5,819 6,742 Other 9,428 7,472 38,070 58,339 Total 162,227 155,024 874,472 975,020 Cattle Imports Mexico 106,036 67,728 629,284 1,154,926 Canada 114,320 84,245 600,469 670,378 Over 700 lbs. 108,675 80,297 558,792 629,352 500-700 lbs. 602 274 7,204 3,782 Total 220,356 151,973 1,229,754 1,825,353 Cattle Exports Mexico 524 605 68,181 6,149 Canada 5,172 5,319 43,191 41,005 Total 7,120 7,076 117,966 52,114 Lamb Imports Australia 1,112 1,093 14,197 10,532 New Zealand 1,780 2,032 8,549 12,952 Total 3,010 3,178 22,751 23,846 Mutton Imports 1,719 1,167 8,278 14,258 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 9/17/94 9/17/95 % Chg Canada 270,346 246,394 -8.9% TRQ Countries 887,820 773,463 -12.9% Australia 468,483 354,203 -24.4% New Zealand 313,687 344,622 9.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jun-95 Jul-95 Jan - Jan - Jul-94 Jul-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 35,975 35,379 257,874 264,742 Denmark 12,572 9,978 161,371 85,660 Poland 1,141 678 7,296 6,953 Hungary 1,169 1,322 13,648 6,430 Netherlands 652 732 11,045 6,357 Other 3,004 2,269 20,174 20,369 Total 54,514 50,358 471,409 390,511 Pork Exports Japan 29,494 31,508 128,776 188,140 Canada 5,060 4,836 21,380 27,789 Mexico 4,746 4,327 77,459 34,760 Caribbean 1,382 806 3,690 6,229 Other 33,064 18,658 27,965 184,275 Total 73,746 60,135 259,269 441,193 Hog Imports Head Canada 130,906 142,201 482,848 824,627 Under 110 lb 62,679 60,270 201,162 366,434 Total 131,114 142,821 484,853 826,730 Hog Exports Total 611 1,745 36,088 6,954 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 21,371 22,618 132,725 138,657 Mexico 16,852 17,331 123,657 109,836 Hong Kong 69,576 128,867 354,461 570,617 Singapore 3,788 4,704 38,888 28,658 Canada 7,054 7,166 41,366 41,304 Former USSR 89,215 112,565 363,271 742,811 Total 270,718 373,408 1,479,846 2,102,337 Turkey Exports Mexico 11,105 8,277 88,256 70,623 S. Korea 2,908 3,489 12,413 21,986 Hong Kong 4,730 1,371 3,579 10,282 Total 24,766 29,904 142,120 171,719 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 8,319 6,947 60,233 56,257 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,102 11,461 11,412 11,134 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,108 8,104 8,106 8,108 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,369 1,414 1,408 1,373 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,837 13,306 13,196 12,874 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.40 12.10 12.10 12.30 Milk for fluid use 12.50 12.20 12.10 12.30 Manuf. grade milk 11.40 11.10 11.00 11.20 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.73 11.42 11.23 11.55 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 71.5 66.9 74.5 79.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.2 126.9 126.7 132.2 Barrels 119.1 122.8 125.3 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.5 106.8 106.7 106.7 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,494 2,150 2,363 2,442 Nonfat dry milk 1,734 2,232 2,183 2,160 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 21.0 39.1 43.0 44.3 Commercial American cheese 346.8 343.9 339.7 352.8 Other cheese 159.1 121.6 126.0 120.6 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 145.6 129.0 141.9 140.2 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,205 5,275 5,351 5,460 All commercial (ss. basis) 7,051 6,450 6,592 6,648 All Government (mf. basis) 5,113 942 800 528 All Government (ss. basis) 201 312 267 260 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 6.2 3.7 2.2 Cheese 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 25.8 26.0 26.2 29.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 160.8 104.7 69.7 All products (ss basis 2/) 332.8 331.2 331.3 370.9 Jul-94 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 84.2 116.5 99.5 82.9 American cheese 252.3 273.3 264.4 259.4 Other-than-American cheese 298.5 324.2 323.1 301.4 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 124.8 112.7 125.5 122.4 All products (mf basis 2/) 7917.7 8637.5 8393.6 7839.0 Nonfat dry milk 99.5 130.0 122.3 102.1 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 83.6 95.4 89.9 78.2 American cheese 264.9 267.2 269.6 249.5 Other-than-American cheese 331.3 357.7 344.5 332.9 Nonfat dry milk 69.5 80.2 83.4 77.6 All products (mf. basis) 13180.0 13552.0 13284.0 13239.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 252.0 232.0 214.0 258.0 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,499 5,634 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 5.6 5.6 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 6.8 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 24,964 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,907 18,400 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,298 26,825 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,223 5,400 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,404 77,361 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,249 5,320 Milk 150,582 153,626 157,038 161,549 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 156,088 162,015 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,143 590 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.5 67.9 69.0 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.8 53.8 Broilers 68.4 69.8 71.8 74.8 Turkeys 17.8 18.0 18.3 19.4 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 212.1 214.6 220.3 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 236.0 237.6 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 65-66 62-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 66-68 63-68 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 35-36 34-37 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 41-42 37-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 55-56 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 64-65 58-63 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 68-70 63-69 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.5-12.7 12.0-13.0 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.6-11.8 11.0-11.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,745 1,805 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,371 2,120 2,125 Pork exports 435 531 731 740 Pork imports 740 743 690 680 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,644 4,015 Turkey exports 212 245 248 258 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,472 5,477 5,506 5,543 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,550 6,225 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,300 4,725 Broilers 6,147 6,376 6,375 6,400 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,350 1,380 Total Meat 17,984 18,625 18,806 18,989 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,295 1,290 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 38,950 40,487 38,746 38,855 Commercial use 37,667 39,486 39,435 39,500 Net removals 1,036 795 185 127 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.2 17.6 16.7 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.9 13.9 Broilers 17.5 18.2 18.4 17.7 Turkeys 3.6 4.0 4.3 6.4 Total Meat 51.6 53.2 54.1 55.7 Eggs, number 59.3 57.9 58.1 60.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 61-62 63-67 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 64-66 63-67 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34-34 31-33 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 47-48 40-42 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60-61 54-56 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 67-68 68-72 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 73-74 72-76 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.2-12.4 13.0-13.5 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.5-11.7 11.9-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 460 465 Beef/veal imports 572 530 515 503 Pork exports 187 194 170 180 Pork imports 173 167 175 175 Broiler exports 873 856 910 1,005 Turkey exports 53 59 65 71 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,581 5,618 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.3 3.3 Unemployment rate, % 5.7 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 6.5 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 6,125 6,425 Pork 4,475 4,450 Broilers 6,500 6,700 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 Total Meat 18,586 19,139 Eggs, mil doz. 1,310 1,310 Milk (mf basis) 40,269 41,905 Commercial use 40,165 41,000 Net removals (5) 246 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.6 17.4 Pork 13.0 13.0 Broilers 18.2 18.8 Turkeys 4.2 4.0 Total Meat 52.9 53.9 Eggs, number 58.9 58.4 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 64-70 63-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 64-70 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 35-37 36-38 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38-42 36-40 Broiler,12 City 50-54 51-55 Turkeys, Eastern 56-60 57-61 Eggs, New York 66-72 60-66 Milk, all at plant 12.1-13.1 11.3-12.3 Milk, M-W 10.9-11.8 10.4-11.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 410 445 Beef/veal imports 545 540 Pork exports 165 185 Pork imports 165 175 Broiler exports 950 990 Turkey exports 56 60 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 End-end-end