HDR1011800201301023950900 LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY October 23, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-22. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Excessive heat this summer pushed dairy, poultry, and pork production below expected levels. Lower production led to higher prices and mitigated much of the impact of rising feed costs on producers' returns during late summer and early fall. Pork and broiler production is increasing this fall and producer prices are moderating. Price pressure from large total meat supplies and a continuing rise in feed costs will squeeze producer returns in most areas of the meat complex. Consumers may not see much price relief, however, as farm-retail price spreads are expected to widen. The excessive heat had only minor effects on beef production. Generally good forage conditions thus far this fall have allowed stocker cattle to remain on pasture, at relatively low cost, for additional weight gain. This has reduced the impact of higher feed costs on feeder cattle prices. Seasonally larger movement of cattle into feedlots this fall is expected to pressure prices downward, however, especially for heavier, fleshy feeder cattle. Turkey Prices Remain Strong for Holidays Wholesale turkey prices are expected to be higher than a year ago this Thanksgiving. Strong export demand likely is supporting prices, despite larger freezer stocks and production. Higher retail turkey prices also are projected this fall. Prices moved above a year earlier in March, and have traded at about a 4-cent per pound premium since then. This differential may narrow, however, as retailers typically use turkeys as a loss leader during the holidays to attract additional consumer purchases. Net returns to turkey producers are projected to double this year from 1994, averaging near 5 cents per pound. September net returns exceeded 10 cents per pound, as higher prices more than offset rising feed costs. Favorable returns are leading to larger turkey production. Weekly slaughter increases could rise 3-4 percent in October from a year earlier and about 2 percent in November. Heavier bird weights also are expected with the onset of cooler weather. The attractive net returns should encourage production increases into 1996. Broiler Returns Remain Strong Broiler net returns have exceeded 10 cents per pound for the last 3 months. Stronger prices have more than made up for a 2-cent per pound increase in feed costs since the beginning of the year. Net returns over the next 3 months are expected to decrease, as feed costs continue to climb and supply increases weaken prices. The strong returns this summer are encouraging larger production. September egg sets in the 15 States surveyed weekly were the strongest of the year, averaging about 6 percent above September 1994. The higher egg sets are translating into higher chick placements during October and should result in increased production by late-November early-December. Weekly slaughter during October and November is projected to increase 2-3 percent based on recent chick placements and a return to fractionally heavier bird weights due to cooler weather. Wholesale prices for whole broilers continue to weaken, but remain 4 cents per pound above October 1994. Additional price declines are expected as the fall holidays approach and demand turns to more seasonally popular items such as turkey and ham. Leg quarter prices continue to be supported by growth in broiler exports, especially to China and Russia. Over the first 8 months of 1995, broiler exports were 2.4 billion pounds, 42 percent higher than in 1994. While Russia remains the largest single market, with U.S. broiler exports up almost 100 percent, the Chinese market also has grown rapidly. During July, exports to China, mostly through Hong Kong, were larger than shipments to Russia. Through August, broiler exports to China totaled 647 million pounds, 56 percent above the previous year. Egg Returns Improve Net returns increased substantially in July as wholesale price increases outpaced rising feed costs. Production costs have increased 4 cents per dozen since the first of the year. Higher wholesale and retail prices are expected to continue through the end of 1995. The table egg production flock is expected to remain 2 percent smaller than last year through the end of 1995. Flock productivity has remained nearly unchanged due to a high molting rate, which has kept the flock age high. Improved net returns in 1995 should encourage increased pullet placements and subsequent increases in flock size for 1996. Hog Prices Slipping Slowly Advances in pork trimmings prices and pork bellies due to supply uncertainties held live hog prices in the mid $40's per cwt in mid-October. Neither the trimmings nor the bellies market provides a solid base to avoid further price declines, based on historical price trends. However, very tight belly freezer stocks on October 1 will continue to support the cutout value. Advancing pork trimmings prices may be tied to continued strong export sales. Pork exports to Russia through August totaled 115.8 million pounds, versus just under 8.5 million for the same period in 1994. Most of the product sold commercially likely is trimmings material of relatively low value used in sausage. Reported unit values through August for shipments to Russia averaged 66 cents per pound, compared with $1.72 for Japan, which buys primarily high valued pork cuts. Seasonally increasing pork supplies over the past month already have forced live hog prices $3 per cwt lower. Further supply increases, while expected, remain uncertain and the uncertainty could be temporarily supporting higher prices. Fourth-quarter production is forecast to be down 4 percent from a year earlier, but still 10 percent above the summer quarter. The summer pig crop came in slightly below expectations due to fewer sows farrowing than reported on June 1. Most of the summer pig crop will reach slaughter weight in first-quarter 1996 when slaughter is projected to decline about 500,000 head from a year earlier. This will cause production to decline about 2 percent. Market hog inventories are projected to remain below a year earlier through next spring based on September 1 farrowing intentions. However, first-half 1996 hog slaughter will remain large compared to any period prior to 1994, limiting any price increase. With stable to lower hog prices, higher-cost producers could face an extended period of negative returns in 1996 due to rising feed costs. The only possible relief would be for cash hog prices to remain in the mid-$40's per cwt or higher. Even lower-cost producers likely will find their margins reduced due to higher grain and protein prices. Despite rising grain prices, the September 1 Hogs and Pigs report indicated producers remain on a course of gradual expansion. Sows farrowing over the next two quarters are estimated to be about unchanged from a year earlier. A larger pig crop is likely, however, due to more pigs saved per litter. Second half 1996 production is projected to climb 4 to 5 percent, and pork supplies will remain record high for the year. Beef Trade Surge Continues The latest beef trade data point to a continuation of recent trends: strong export sales of higher quality grain-fed beef and declining imports of lower quality processing (grass-fed) beef. Beef exports through August were up 14 percent from a year ago, while imports were down 11 percent. Competition for relatively tight supplies of higher quality (marbled) beef is supporting higher boxed beef values and fed cattle prices, even as slaughter levels peak seasonally. Fed cattle prices likely will show some seasonal strength through midwinter, but sharply higher prices are unlikely. Larger beef cow and heifer slaughter added to recent supplies, but steer numbers continue to lag, and marketing weights remain much lighter than a year earlier. Dressed steer weights in September averaged 9 pounds below last year. A larger proportion of these steers may have been lower grading, lighter Mexican steers being pushed through feedlots before cold weather reduces gains. This situation is expected to change soon, however. A higher proportion of better grading steers likely will be marketed later this fall and winter, and weights may continue to climb beyond the normal seasonal peak in November. Feeder cattle prices have remained relatively flat through early fall. But declining forage quality and poorer grazing prospects in winter wheat areas will increase available feeder cattle supplies and begin to pressure prices soon. Imports of lighter feeder cattle from Mexico this fall are expected to decline from a year earlier, possibly taking some pressure off feeder cattle prices. Improved moisture conditions and already reduced cattle inventories in Mexico are expected to hold down exports to the United States. Catfish Sales Larger in 1995 and into 1996 Catfish producers have increased inventories of broodfish, fingerlings, and stockers in response to relatively high returns. When the stockers and fingerlings reach market size in 1996, catfish prices may soften, especially after the Lenten season. Steady to lower prices and higher feed costs will pressure returns, which may dampen the inventory buildup. Since fourth-quarter 1993, growers have enjoyed strong farm prices (73 cents or better per pound) and relatively low feed costs. During the next 6 to 9 months, however, catfish growers are likely to be caught between stable or slightly lower farm prices and rising feed costs. Nevertheless, farm prices are expected to decline only moderately in 1996 and growers still will have an incentive to expand production. Mexico Buys Nonfat Dry Milk Mexico contracted for almost 12,000 tons of nonfat dry milk just as the July-September interim Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) expired. The product will be delivered in October-November and will relieve much of the supply pressure that kept nonfat dry milk prices near the support purchase price. If DEIP activity is substantial under the new allocations, nonfat dry milk prices could rise. Mexico, one of the largest DEIP customers in recent years, had not purchased nonfat dry milk since last winter. Mexican stocks of imported dry milk remained high, despite heavy food aid use. Sales of nonfat dry milk in Mexico's domestic commercial market fell sharply because of higher international prices, peso devaluation, and economic weakness. Although Mexican stocks apparently have been reduced, imports are not likely to return to the levels of recent years. New DEIP allocations were recently announced, with sales to Asia expected by late 1995. However, sales to Algeria or additional sales to Mexico are uncertain. Exports under DEIP during the rest of 1995 will be smaller than a year earlier. Under GATT, subsidized exports are limited and will never again approach 1995 levels. Unsubsidized butter exports are projected to be small during the rest of 1995. Commercial exports were substantial earlier in the year, but recent domestic price increases have made U.S. butter uncompetitive on international markets. Exports are not expected to resume until domestic markets weaken seasonally at the end of 1995. World production of milk and dairy products is projected to be large in 1995. However, strong consumption in major exporting countries is limiting supplies on the international markets. Stocks of butter and nonfat dry milk are projected to decline even further in 1995 to half the volume of the early 1990's. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 7,486 8,113 7,699 7,453 Net placements 2,010 1,328 1,638 2,211 Marketings 1,656 1,742 1,884 1,696 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 536,915 555,608 558,473 553,831 Chicks hatched (000)/2 625,867 672,822 672,608 640,000 Hatching egg layers/1 48,267 48,946 48,472 49,155 Pullets placed (000) 6,336 6,302 6,464 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,691 4,874 4,283 4,800 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 31,500 38,908 35,506 31,195 Poults placed (000) 23,920 29,079 26,563 23,107 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 435 431 431 420 Table egg layers, (000)/1 241,187 235,190 232,864 235,521 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.0 71.3 71.1 71.4 Chicks hatched (000) 30,873 28,682 30,399 33,500 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,483 7,037 8,206 7,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Oct-94 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 67.17 58.34 58.45 60.80 Selling price 66.51 61.95 64.45 64.40 Net margin -0.66 3.61 6.00 3.60 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 39.00 36.63 36.71 37.47 Selling price 32.44 49.68 48.89 46.85 Net margin -6.56 13.05 12.18 9.38 Broiler Wholesale cost 47.98 49.12 49.91 49.56 Wholesale price 54.02 61.74 61.44 58.50 Net margin 6.04 12.62 11.53 8.94 Turkey Wholesale cost 61.00 60.98 61.81 63.10 Wholesale price 73.20 68.77 72.60 75.50 Net margin 12.20 7.79 10.79 12.40 Egg Wholesale cost 64.61 68.75 68.17 69.29 Wholesale price 67.00 77.19 80.56 81.00 Net margin 2.39 8.44 12.39 11.71 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Oct-94 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 66.51 61.95 64.45 64.40 Nebraska Direct 65.89 62.18 63.23 63.50 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 37.59 39.16 36.17 33.50 Utility boning 37.06 36.39 34.13 31.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 81.83 70.44 66.46 65.30 600-650 lb. 75.28 68.84 65.69 65.80 750-800 lb. 72.40 66.28 66.03 67.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 74.70 63.44 58.33 57.25 700-750 lb. 68.50 62.78 62.42 62.80 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 32.18 49.43 48.44 46.20 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 32.44 49.68 48.89 46.85 Sows 6 Markets 25.53 35.92 36.94 39.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 20.61 30.00 33.25 32.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 69.96 87.00 80.00 77.00 Ewes, Good 37.04 33.29 32.13 27.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 67.08 81.67 80.84 80.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Oct-94 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 1.92 2.78 2.83 3.09 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.31 4.76 4.87 5.12 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 168.50 166.70 180.99 191.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 91.40 85.20 85.00 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 86.30 81.10 80.30 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Oct-94 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 103.63 102.55 105.82 108.80 Choice 1-3 700-850# 100.85 101.78 104.12 107.50 Select 1-3 700-850# 95.04 92.98 95.61 93.50 Cutter Cow 74.51 68.23 64.34 63.35 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 98.43 86.61 83.28 84.65 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 106.13 88.70 90.69 87.00 Hide & offal value 9.07 8.59 8.32 8.35 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 208.51 173.14 194.35 201.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 52.38 67.91 67.10 66.95 Loins, 14-18 lb. 95.65 127.98 117.63 108.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 31.33 52.42 54.43 60.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 46.51 64.27 70.92 70.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 33.59 48.78 53.05 59.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 148.31 180.25 172.75 161.00 55-65 lb., Choice 154.25 180.25 172.75 161.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 54.02 61.74 61.48 58.50 Georgia dock 53.54 58.62 60.00 58.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 169.68 202.11 196.62 173.00 Breast, Ribs on 78.28 102.63 92.94 83.00 Legs, whole 51.06 53.35 55.92 56.00 Leg quarters 32.87 36.37 41.26 42.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 73.76 69.93 73.10 76.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 73.13 68.54 72.92 76.00 Drumsticks 31.51 22.51 29.60 28.00 Wings, full cut 32.18 25.16 30.34 31.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 67.00 77.19 80.56 81.00 New York 63.80 72.80 77.05 80.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 280.0 287.4 284.4 283.5 Beef - All Fresh 262.1 258.1 258.8 259.4 Ground Beef 146.3 136.5 132.8 137.6 Rib roast 465.2 500.1 495.9 492.7 T-bone steak 576.5 618.4 612.7 594.8 Pork 197.3 191.4 197.3 198.0 Bacon 197.3 190.6 196.8 204.2 Chops 317.5 321.2 325.6 330.6 Picnic 111.6 108.7 112.8 108.3 Chicken - Composite 146.5 140.9 141.8 147.0 Whole, fresh 90.1 91.9 90.8 93.9 Breast - bone in 205.9 194.6 194.7 201.7 Leg quarter 116.3 113.0 115.0 119.5 Turkey; whole frozen 104.4 105.0 106.0 108.6 Eggs, Grade A, Large 85.5 87.9 98.4 95.6 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 149.4 152.5 152.9 153.2 All food 145.0 148.1 148.4 148.9 All meat 135.0 134.2 135.1 135.5 Beef & veal 135.1 133.5 133.0 133.3 Pork 134.8 133.7 136.0 137.8 Poultry 143.3 142.5 142.8 145.9 Dairy Products 131.3 132.9 132.8 132.3 Fluid milk & cream 130.8 131.9 132.1 131.3 Manufactured products 132.4 134.4 134.2 134.0 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 25.2 29.4 28.2 29.2 Wholesale to retail 118.0 128.9 126.6 120.9 Farmers share (%) 49.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 39.6 26.9 27.8 30.1 Wholesale to retail 101.8 89.8 91.2 91.2 Farmers share (%) 28.0 39.0 40.0 39.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 26.5 25.1 21.1 24.4 Turkey 27.1 30.8 28.2 27.0 Eggs 17.1 14.4 23.2 17.0 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Oct-94 Oct-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 20,280 20,938 2,308 2,212 2,147 Veal 232 254 26 26 26 Pork 14,377 14,670 1,503 1,438 1,548 Lamb 254 237 23 21 23 Total red meat 35,143 36,099 3,860 3,697 3,744 Broilers 19,881 20,811 2,170 2,000 2,200 Other chicken 425 419 38 40 42 Turkeys 4,141 4,285 451 440 490 Total poultry 24,447 25,515 2,659 2,480 2,732 Total meat & poultry 59,590 61,614 6,519 6,177 6,476 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 28,518 29,645 3,220 3,082 2,998 Steers 15,208 15,516 1,729 1,577 1,514 Heifers 8,001 8,699 936 946 929 Beef Cows 2,379 2,495 252 261 258 Dairy Cows 2,392 2,367 240 237 237 Bulls and stags 539 568 62 60 60 Calves 1,028 1,159 124 122 116 Sheep 4,106 3,761 372 360 318 Hogs 78,176 79,593 8,265 7,924 8,455 Barrows & gilts 74,174 75,666 7,829 7,547 8,065 Sows 3,233 3,168 354 308 318 Broilers 5,910,361 6,182,972 662,186 600,000 640,000 Turkeys 231,555 234,171 26,226 24,500 27,500 Oct-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 725 717 723 724 725 Calves 224 216 209 211 215 Sheep 60 63 62 60 60 Hogs 186 185 183 182 183 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 406.8 352.3 358.7 344.9 344.1 Pork 352.7 431.1 408.1 354.0 318.8 Bellies 18.3 67.6 47.1 17.4 5.4 Hams 108.7 110.0 110.1 125.9 114.5 Total chicken 435.9 537.3 515.4 499.2 472.5 Turkey 648.6 618.6 673.0 678.2 676.4 Frozen eggs 17.8 22.9 20.6 18.0 16.1 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jul-95 Aug-95 Jan - Jan - Aug-94 Aug-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 66,864 57,713 597,322 474,219 New Zealand 71,745 54,773 424,354 474,055 Canada 35,239 40,586 316,742 283,834 Brazil 6,115 8,118 105,157 45,779 Argentina 11,670 14,823 94,714 110,045 Central America 7,336 13,006 128,553 100,306 Other 1,733 2,306 19,240 15,359 Total 200,704 191,327 1,686,081 1,503,597 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 83,724 101,998 540,841 641,026 Canada 28,998 26,733 175,946 199,342 Mexico 10,187 10,416 137,863 62,320 Korea, Rep. 23,900 21,600 110,157 167,996 Caribbean 743 979 6,804 7,721 Other 7,472 19,313 45,023 77,652 Total 155,024 181,038 1,016,634 1,156,058 Cattle Imports Mexico 67,728 79,420 660,490 1,234,346 Canada 84,245 100,742 692,267 771,120 Over 700 lbs. 80,297 96,811 647,120 726,163 500-700 lbs. 274 611 7,395 4,393 Total 151,973 180,162 1,352,785 2,005,515 Cattle Exports Mexico 605 2,114 80,145 8,263 Canada 5,319 3,700 51,549 44,705 Total 7,076 6,234 138,450 58,348 Lamb Imports Australia 1,093 1,207 16,173 11,739 New Zealand 2,032 2,227 9,730 15,179 Total 3,178 3,435 25,907 27,281 Mutton Imports 1,167 570 9,010 14,829 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jul-95 Aug-95 Jan - Jan - Aug-94 Aug-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 35,379 40,340 292,558 305,082 Denmark 9,978 9,392 180,615 95,052 Poland 678 491 7,778 7,444 Hungary 1,322 1,464 15,246 7,894 Netherlands 732 843 12,222 7,200 Other 2,269 2,307 22,643 22,676 Total 50,358 54,837 531,061 445,348 Pork Exports Japan 31,508 37,885 148,840 226,025 Canada 4,836 5,654 27,870 33,443 Mexico 4,327 4,741 88,781 39,501 Caribbean 806 534 4,021 6,763 Other 18,658 17,592 31,761 201,867 Total 60,135 66,406 301,273 507,599 Hog Imports Head Canada 142,201 187,886 567,854 1,012,513 Under 110 lb 60,270 74,836 242,510 441,270 Total 142,821 188,129 569,859 1,014,859 Hog Exports Total 1,745 685 40,858 7,639 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 22,618 23,592 154,249 162,249 Mexico 17,331 19,919 141,974 129,755 Hong Kong 128,867 76,530 414,583 647,147 Singapore 4,704 4,057 44,206 32,715 Canada 7,166 7,178 49,975 48,482 Former USSR 112,565 148,230 435,663 891,041 Total 373,408 336,649 1,710,290 2,438,986 Turkey Exports Mexico 8,277 9,600 86,695 75,239 S. Korea 3,489 3,213 14,379 25,147 Hong Kong 1,371 1,852 4,132 12,133 Total 29,904 30,509 147,021 172,169 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 6,947 7,000 70,473 63,257 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Sep-94 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,689 11,412 11,128 10,798 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,109 8,106 8,109 8,113 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,318 1,408 1,372 1,331 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,360 13,196 12,867 12,486 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.80 12.10 12.40 12.70 Milk for fluid use 12.80 12.10 12.50 12.80 Manuf. grade milk 11.90 11.00 11.30 11.70 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.04 11.23 11.55 12.08 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 71.5 74.5 79.5 80.9 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 135.6 126.7 132.2 141.3 Barrels 122.8 125.3 135.1 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.2 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,494 2,363 2,442 2,500 Nonfat dry milk 1,742 2,183 2,160 2,215 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 20.6 43.0 44.8 31.4 Commercial American cheese 327.0 339.7 361.2 336.0 Other cheese 147.2 126.0 121.0 119.2 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 120.2 141.9 140.2 102.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,885 5,351 5,550 4,981 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,405 6,592 6,733 5,999 All Government (mf. basis) 4,162 800 528 403 All Government (ss. basis) 408 267 260 234 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 3.7 2.5 1.9 Cheese 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 20.5 26.2 28.0 17.8 All products (mf basis 2/) 104.7 77.6 60.6 All products (ss basis 2/) 285.6 326.0 346.5 223.9 Aug-94 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 88.2 99.5 82.9 78.6 American cheese 242.6 264.4 259.4 246.5 Other-than-American cheese 319.8 323.1 301.4 312.7 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 122.8 125.5 122.4 123.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 7847.5 8393.6 7838.8 7768.0 Nonfat dry milk 86.8 122.3 102.1 83.6 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 104.7 89.9 78.2 NA American cheese 263.3 269.6 249.5 NA Other-than-American cheese 357.4 344.5 332.9 NA Nonfat dry milk 86.5 83.4 77.6 NA All products (mf. basis) 13539.0 13284.0 13239.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 225.0 214.0 258.0 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,499 5,634 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 5.6 5.6 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 6.8 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 25,014 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,837 18,325 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,128 26,825 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,173 5,400 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,158 77,286 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,249 5,320 Milk 150,582 153,626 157,038 161,549 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 156,088 162,015 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,143 590 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.5 68.0 69.0 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.7 53.5 Broilers 68.4 69.8 71.2 74.8 Turkeys 17.8 18.0 18.3 19.2 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 212.1 214.0 219.9 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 236.0 237.6 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 65-67 62-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 67-68 63-68 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 36-36 34-37 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 42-43 37-41 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 55-56 50-54 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 65-66 60-65 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 69-70 63-69 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.5-12.7 12.2-13.2 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.6-11.8 11.2-12.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,745 1,805 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,371 2,129 2,125 Pork exports 435 531 726 740 Pork imports 740 743 685 680 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,644 4,015 Turkey exports 212 245 248 258 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.5 16.6 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 682 603 587 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 52 60 54 79 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,472 5,477 5,506 5,543 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,600 6,225 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,255 4,700 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,225 6,400 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,300 1,380 Total Meat 17,984 18,605 18,605 18,964 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,295 1,290 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 38,950 40,487 38,746 38,855 Commercial use 37,667 39,486 39,435 39,500 Net removals 1,036 795 185 127 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.2 17.7 16.7 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.8 13.9 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.8 17.8 Turkeys 3.6 4.0 4.3 6.4 Total Meat 51.6 53.2 53.5 55.7 Eggs, number 59.3 57.9 58.1 60.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62-63 64-66 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66-67 64-66 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 35-35 31-33 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48-49 41-43 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60-61 54-56 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68-69 73-75 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 74-76 73-75 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.2-12.4 13.1-13.5 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.5-11.7 12.0-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 460 465 Beef/veal imports 572 539 515 503 Pork exports 187 194 170 175 Pork imports 173 167 170 175 Broiler exports 873 856 910 1,005 Turkey exports 53 59 65 71 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,581 5,618 5,654 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.3 3.3 3.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.7 5.7 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.5 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 6.5 6.5 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 6,125 6,425 6,775 Pork 4,400 4,450 4,525 Broilers 6,500 6,700 6,825 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 1,400 Total Meat 18,511 19,139 19,751 Eggs, mil doz. 1,310 1,310 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 40,269 41,905 39,916 Commercial use 40,165 41,000 40,575 Net removals (5) 246 278 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.6 17.4 18.1 Pork 12.7 13.0 13.4 Broilers 18.2 18.8 19.0 Turkeys 4.0 4.0 4.4 Total Meat 52.5 53.9 55.8 Eggs, number 58.9 58.4 59.0 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-69 63-69 60-64 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 65-69 62-68 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 35-37 36-38 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 41-43 36-40 38-42 Broiler,12 City 50-54 51-55 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 59-63 60-64 Eggs, New York 67-71 60-66 62-68 Milk, all at plant 12.5-13.5 11.5-12.5 11.8-12.8 Milk, M-W 11.6-12.4 10.6-11.4 10.9-11.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 410 445 470 Beef/veal imports 545 540 540 Pork exports 165 185 185 Pork imports 165 175 170 Broiler exports 950 990 1,015 Turkey exports 56 60 67 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 End end end