LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY December 22, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-24. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dairy Prices To Be Mixed Average farm milk prices in 1996 are expected to rise slightly from this year. Skim solids prices are projected to decline as production outstrips commercial use, largely offsetting higher milkfat values. Prices will average above a year earlier in first-quarter 1996 as prices adjust downward from a higher seasonal peak this fall. But are projected to be near a year earlier during the second and third quarters and are not expected to reach this year's peak in the fall. The support price for manufacturing grade milk will rise 25 cents per cwt to $10.35 effective January 1, 1996. The increase was required under current legislation because projected 1996 net removals, adjusted for the increase in 1994 imports from the 1986-90 average, fell just under the trigger of 3.5 billion pounds, milk equivalent, total solids basis. This is the first triggered increase since triggers became a common feature of dairy legislation in the early eighties. Strong export demand for butter was the main reason the projected surplus fell below the trigger level. However, the support purchase price for butter cannot legally be increased. Therefore, the support purchase price for nonfat dry milk must increase 3.1 cents to $1.065 per pound. The support purchase price for cheddar cheese will rise 2.5 cents to $1.145 per pound for 40-pound blocks and $1.115 for barrels. The increase in the support price is not expected to affect average milk prices much, as higher nonfat dry milk prices are not expected to affect cheese prices significantly. Milk prices have averaged more than $1.50 per cwt above the support price each year since 1992. The early December crash in butter prices probably was much sharper than needed to move surplus butter into export markets. Aided by domestic stock building, butter prices already recovered slightly and are expected to run 20-35 cents per pound below November's peak. Even though milkfat currently accounts for less than one-third of the manufacturing value of milk, potential swings in butter prices could affect cheese prices. Cheese prices are expected to decline gradually through early spring but probably will have to remain high enough to attract milk away from butter-powder operations. This will make cheese prices particularly sensitive to butter prices and milk output in cheese areas. Nonfat dry milk prices rose considerably in November, triggered by seasonally low production and possibly low user stocks. However, expected expansion in milk production in 1996 and smaller allowable Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) exports will keep powder prices weak during most of the year. Since 1990, retail dairy prices have risen about 1 percent annually, less than half the increase in all food or all consumer items. This year, prices of manufactured dairy products rose more than fluid milk prices, largely because of continued relatively sizable increases in prices of frozen desserts and miscellaneous products. Retail dairy prices are expected to rise 1-3 percent in 1996, following an increase of less than 1 percent in 1995. Prices of products containing more milkfat will tend to rise faster than skim-based products. Moderate Beef Expansion Continues Preliminary cow slaughter estimates for 1995 strongly suggest that moderate herd expansion will continue in 1996, resulting in higher beef production at least through 1997. In spite of the sharp downturn in lightweight feeder cattle prices this year, cow slaughter as a percent of the January 1, 1995, inventory was only 13.6 percent, up only marginally from 1994 and below the industry liquidation level of 15 percent or higher. Both beef cow and heifer slaughter rose 8 percent from 1994, indicating a slowdown in the rate of expansion is underway. Steer slaughter, on the other hand, was up less than 1 percent, which is somewhat surprising given the large number of Mexican feeder steers imported from late 1994 through this past summer. Calf slaughter increased nearly 12 percent in 1995, reflecting this year's larger calf crop and the dramatic decline in lightweight feeder cattle prices. Heifer calves may have accounted for a sizable portion of the increased calf slaughter. Beef exports are expected to remain strong in 1996, insulating the domestic market from larger beef supplies. However, continued high grain prices, particularly if exacerbated by drought, would force larger beef supplies on the market and increase downward price pressure. Higher grain prices and poor winter wheat grazing prospects are putting additional pressure on lighter weight stocker-feeder cattle prices. But favorable forage conditions in most areas and record hay production are allowing these cattle to remain on pasture or forage for additional weight gain. Fed cattle prices in December were down about $2 per cwt from a year earlier, with 750- to 800-pound feeder cattle prices down $9 and 500- to 550-pound stocker calves down more than $22. With larger feeder cattle supplies carried over into 1996, and a larger expected calf crop, good planting conditions next spring and favorable crop development next summer will be critical if lighter stocker cattle prices are to avoid further declines. Choice beef supplies remain tight, with retail prices up 6 cents per pound from a year earlier in November, reflecting the strong hotel-restaurant and export demand. All fresh beef prices were up less than 2 cents, with prices for most non-Choice cuts used in calculating the composite price down from a year earlier. Pork Prospects Viewed Favorably Rising grain and protein meal prices over the past month will add about $3 per cwt to the cost of producing hogs. Cash breakeven costs when these animals are marketed in the spring will approach $43-$45 per cwt, compared with about $40 in December. Each 10-cent-per-bushel increase in corn prices adds about 40 cents per cwt to the cost of producing hogs. Higher grain prices have not curbed recent optimism in hog futures contracts. In early December, the April, June, July, and August 1996 hog futures contract were trading near $50 or above, offering producers an opportunity to more than cover recent grain price increases. Corn prices would have to approach $5 per bushel for producers to view the current market climate as overly bearish. The premium currently carried on spring futures assumes pork production is slated to trend lower over the next 6 months. Using historical price- supply relationships, estimated production next spring would have to be held to about 4.175 billion pounds. That is 275 million pounds or about 1.5 million head below current production/slaughter projections. This would have to be accomplished by either reducing September-November 1995 sow farrowings or the average number of pigs saved per litter. Both cases may be argued. Pig survival rates this fall may have been lower due to heat stress last summer. Higher grain prices may have squeezed operating margins and caused farrowings to fall below reported intentions for September-November. The December 1 Hogs and Pigs report will be released on December 28 and should provide additional insight into 1996 production. Egg Prices Exceptionally Strong Lower egg production in the fourth quarter has led to sharply higher wholesale and retail prices. Wholesale prices are continuing strong in December. The 2- to 3-percent decline in egg production this quarter should have caused prices to rise 10-15 percent rather than 20-25 percent. Seasonal strength during the holidays has probably contributed to a stronger than usual increase in prices as retailers strive to assure supplies will be available. The number of eggs in incubators on November 1 for egg-producing birds was 13 percent higher than a year ago. These birds will be ready to enter the laying flock in April and May, suggesting flocks will continue expanding next summer. A return to 1995 flock size is expected by spring, with about 1-2 percent more eggs expected to be produced in 1996. Egg exports are projected to increase slightly in 1996, as egg product exports increase more than the decline in shell egg exports. Decreases in Export Enhancement Program funds for shell egg exports are mandated to decline under GATT. Turkey Prices Weakening Larger cold storage stocks of turkey parts in November and slower movement of whole birds during Thanksgiving have contributed to seasonally declining turkey prices. Prices remain above a year ago, but the difference has narrowed. December production is projected to decline 2-3 percent from a year earlier based on one less slaughter day. However, weekly production during the month will be higher due to heavier slaughter weights. Cumulative placements of turkey poults for first-quarter 1996 slaughter are fractionally above last year. Larger increases in poult placements in early 1996 will be necessary to reach the forecast 4-percent production increase. Broiler Production Forecasts Lowered Production estimates for early 1996 have been lowered 100 million pounds because of the impact of last summer's heat stress on the broiler hatchery supply flock. Production of pullets for placement in the flock appears to have been affected. Also, hatchability of eggs continued to lag behind normal levels into the fall. These factors have limited pullet placements and are expected to limit production increases in early 1996. U.S. poultry exports to Hong Kong are expected to top 1 billion pounds in 1995, up over 40 percent from a year earlier. Hong Kong is the second largest market for U.S. poultry products. Most of these exports were transhipped to China. However, starting in late November, the Chinese government cracked down on poultry imports from Hong Kong, which had been exported illegally or undervalued to limit tariff payments. U.S. poultry exports to China are growing, but are only forecast at 80 to 90 million pounds in 1995. These products also include broiler parts such as wing tips, feet, and necks, as well as bone-in dark meat. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The release of U.S. trade statistics for October 1995 will be delayed due to the furlough of Census Department employees. No date has been given for their release. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Nov-94 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 8,629 7,453 7,968 8,707 Net placements 1,783 2,211 2,382 1,935 Marketings 1,498 1,696 1,643 1,568 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 494,274 553,831 537,802 524,729 Chicks hatched (000)/2 597,276 634,272 652,198 630,000 Hatching egg layers/1 47,839 49,155 49,319 49,445 Pullets placed (000) 5,819 6,288 6,013 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,898 4,815 5,864 4,600 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 31,307 31,195 32,034 31,681 Poults placed (000) 24,697 23,108 24,945 24,385 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 447 421 440 435 Table egg layers, (000)/1 245,207 235,473 236,537 239,987 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.2 71.4 71.2 71.7 Chicks hatched (000) 25,475 32,112 31,682 28,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,149 7,212 7,396 7,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 67.31 60.82 59.34 59.97 Selling price 69.35 64.89 67.94 66.00 Net margin 2.04 4.07 8.60 6.03 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 37.45 37.47 38.54 38.75 Selling price 32.14 45.59 39.93 44.00 Net margin -5.31 8.12 1.39 5.25 Broiler Wholesale cost 47.26 49.56 50.33 51.67 Wholesale price 50.87 58.79 61.08 58.50 Net margin 3.61 9.23 10.75 6.83 Turkey Wholesale cost 59.86 63.10 62.53 63.82 Wholesale price 68.34 75.89 77.50 68.00 Net margin 8.48 12.79 14.97 4.18 Egg Wholesale cost 63.70 69.29 71.54 72.69 Wholesale price 77.08 79.78 92.09 94.00 Net margin 13.38 10.49 20.55 21.31 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 69.35 64.89 67.94 66.00 Nebraska Direct 68.34 64.44 67.51 66.35 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 37.95 34.44 29.85 30.25 Utility boning 36.30 32.25 29.18 29.70 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 86.25 64.33 63.88 64.85 600-650 lb. 79.88 64.10 64.06 63.00 750-800 lb. 76.63 66.68 67.63 68.35 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 79.54 56.83 55.78 56.00 700-750 lb. 73.79 61.63 63.78 63.50 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 31.48 45.15 39.55 43.58 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 32.14 45.59 39.93 44.00 Sows 6 Markets 20.58 39.79 33.16 29.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 18.63 31.56 31.04 39.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 67.50 75.90 72.00 71.00 Ewes, Good 43.25 29.00 30.83 34.75 Feeder lambs, Choice 74.38 80.78 81.33 83.25 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.17 3.09 3.22 3.40 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.27 5.28 5.19 5.30 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 156.90 193.90 204.08 224.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 92.50 88.10 87.30 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 85.00 83.00 81.00 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 107.22 107.77 108.88 106.50 Choice 1-3 700-850# 105.50 106.85 107.14 104.45 Select 1-3 700-850# 98.10 93.03 94.76 94.30 Cutter Cow 73.17 61.51 58.94 57.75 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 107.14 83.88 82.75 83.90 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 105.00 90.00 96.05 94.00 Hide & offal value 9.73 8.38 8.58 8.40 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 182.23 190.28 170.83 165.50 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 51.66 66.49 60.67 62.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 89.50 108.23 93.94 112.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 29.29 56.20 47.28 51.75 Hams, 20-26 lb. 50.74 69.45 64.55 56.25 Trimmings, 72% fresh 29.88 56.84 43.19 42.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 154.25 162.25 160.25 160.25 55-65 lb., Choice 151.25 162.25 160.25 160.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 50.87 58.79 61.08 58.50 Georgia dock 50.36 57.80 59.01 57.50 Northeast Breast, boneless 156.69 173.64 165.77 155.00 Breast, Ribs on 71.71 83.47 80.57 75.00 Legs, whole 48.20 55.78 57.94 58.00 Leg quarters 31.15 41.82 43.51 43.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 68.46 76.01 78.07 68.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 70.35 76.73 80.31 72.00 Drumsticks 28.65 28.21 27.75 28.00 Wings, full cut 27.39 30.89 31.20 31.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 77.08 79.78 92.09 94.00 New York 69.26 79.40 91.10 92.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Nov-94 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 280.2 283.5 285.3 286.4 Beef - All Fresh 257.0 254.7 257.5 258.6 Ground Beef 137.6 137.6 137.1 136.8 Rib roast 456.3 492.7 491.2 510.0 T-bone steak 585.4 594.8 602.9 606.6 Pork 195.0 198.0 202.4 200.8 Bacon 191.7 204.2 211.7 215.5 Chops 324.8 330.6 328.7 326.5 Picnic 110.5 108.3 114.1 117.5 Chicken - Composite 140.6 147.0 145.4 149.7 Whole, fresh 90.4 93.9 93.0 94.8 Breast - bone in 193.7 201.7 200.1 206.7 Leg quarter 113.4 119.5 117.6 120.9 Turkey; whole frozen 97.2 108.6 105.0 97.1 Eggs, Grade A, Large 85.7 95.6 98.1 103.7 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 149.7 153.2 153.7 153.6 All food 145.3 148.9 149.4 149.4 All meat 134.6 135.5 137.0 137.7 Beef & veal 134.5 133.3 134.3 135.2 Pork 133.4 137.8 139.1 139.7 Poultry 140.2 145.9 146.1 146.3 Dairy Products 131.7 132.3 133.2 133.7 Fluid milk & cream 131.8 131.3 132.3 133.1 Manufactured products 132.2 134.0 134.7 134.9 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 22.1 29.2 31.2 25.6 Wholesale to retail 116.4 120.9 119.8 119.4 Farmers share (%) 51.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 42.6 30.1 35.7 38.0 Wholesale to retail 108.4 91.2 94.5 100.0 Farmers share (%) 23.0 39.0 36.0 31.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 31.1 24.4 26.2 25.7 Turkey 13.9 27.0 20.1 10.6 Eggs 14.2 17.0 20.3 12.6 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Dec-94 Dec-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 /* Dec-95 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 24,278 25,002 2,171 2,088 1,952 Veal 283 305 27 26 24 Pork 17,658 17,906 1,574 1,708 1,502 Lamb 304 284 23 24 23 Total red meat 42,523 43,497 3,795 3,846 3,501 Broilers 23,846 25,031 2,222 2,075 2,050 Other chicken 507 495 44 36 40 Turkeys 4,992 5,130 483 485 380 Total poultry 29,346 30,657 2,749 2,596 2,470 Total meat & poultry 71,869 74,154 6,544 6,442 5,971 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 34,196 35,442 3,057 2,965 2,773 Steers 18,027 18,185 1,464 1,400 1,317 Heifers 9,589 10,403 953 871 810 Beef Cows 3,021 3,267 327 367 336 Dairy Cows 2,920 2,909 252 269 258 Bulls and stags 641 681 61 59 53 Calves 1,268 1,418 129 128 117 Sheep 4,938 4,544 371 372 359 Hogs 95,697 96,765 8,536 9,102 7,990 Barrows & gilts 90,758 92,091 8,164 8,700 7,625 Sows 4,011 3,782 304 330 297 Broilers 7,071,570 7,371,164 637,956 590,000 585,000 Turkeys 278,913 282,255 27,254 27,000 21,500 Dec-94 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 /* Dec-95 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 711 724 718 711 711 Calves 217 211 212 208 207 Sheep 62 60 61 63 63 Hogs 188 182 185 188 188 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 419.5 344.9 347.7 380.8 381.1 Pork 383.2 354.0 332.6 321.7 347.6 Bellies 40.7 17.4 6.3 13.5 37.2 Hams 63.9 125.9 114.7 94.6 60.0 Total chicken 451.7 499.2 500.1 520.6 513.1 Turkey 280.7 678.2 686.0 644.4 270.0 Frozen eggs 19.1 18.0 16.2 14.4 12.2 /* Estimates MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Nov-94 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,624 10,766 11,014 10,638 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,098 8,109 8,098 8,089 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,312 1,328 1,360 1,315 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,330 12,430 12,783 12,346 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.10 12.80 13.40 13.70 Milk for fluid use 13.10 12.80 13.50 13.70 Manuf. grade milk 12.00 12.00 12.70 12.80 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.86 12.08 12.61 12.87 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 71.5 80.9 95.4 103.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 127.9 141.3 145.0 145.8 Barrels 135.1 138.7 138.8 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 107.1 107.2 108.6 113.4 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,482 2,500 2,563 2,638 Nonfat dry milk 1,870 2,215 2,317 2,288 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 11.0 32.1 22.9 17.0 Commercial American cheese 312.2 339.1 319.8 310.7 Other cheese 135.2 118.8 108.5 106.4 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 93.0 102.1 78.3 70.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,373 5,020 4,520 4,246 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,753 6,021 5,407 5,159 All Government (mf. basis) 2,549 408 224 154 All Government (ss. basis) 486 234 228 242 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 10.9 1.9 1.6 1.0 Cheese 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 Nonfat dry milk 29.7 17.8 29.6 7.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 281.3 60.6 55.6 37.3 All products (ss basis 2/) 387.8 223.9 360.5 97.6 Oct-94 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 101.8 78.6 82.2 94.4 American cheese 244.3 246.5 251.3 248.7 Other-than-American cheese 330.2 312.7 324.4 336.9 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 88.6 123.6 97.8 92.1 All products (mf basis 2/) 7645.9 7768.0 7471.8 7538.3 Nonfat dry milk 86.2 83.6 76.9 75.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 108.4 89.0 89.6 NA American cheese 241.4 269.6 271.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 362.9 338.7 361.0 NA Nonfat dry milk 65.5 95.6 83.2 NA All products (mf. basis) 12979.0 13524.0 13110.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 238.1 222.3 240.4 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,520 5,664 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 5.5 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 6.6 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 25,016 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,847 18,325 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,036 26,550 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,132 5,350 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,029 76,960 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,217 5,310 Milk 150,582 153,626 156,487 160,400 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 155,598 160,400 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,141 700 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.0 67.1 67.6 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.5 52.9 Broilers 68.4 69.8 70.4 73.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.6 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 211.5 211.6 216.6 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 234.5 237.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66.84 63-67 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 68.02 63-68 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 36.05 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 42.68 38-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 57.10 51-56 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 67.28 62-66 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 72.88 65-70 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.74 12.4-13.3 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.82 11.4-12.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,850 2,120 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,368 2,050 2,080 Pork exports 435 531 784 900 Pork imports 740 743 654 650 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,753 4,015 Turkey exports 212 281 329 345 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 16.9 17.4 16.5 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.5 3.8 4.4 6.1 Total Meat 50.4 52.1 54.1 54.9 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 681 602 586 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 60 67 61 93 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,470 5,488 5,545 5,576 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.6 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,602 6,225 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,725 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,183 6,350 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,350 Total Meat 17,984 18,605 18,535 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,295 1,283 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 38,950 40,484 38,453 38,600 Commercial use 37,549 39,454 39,395 39,200 Net removals 1,046 752 243 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.1 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.8 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 17.6 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.4 53.0 52.6 54.6 Eggs, number 59.3 58.0 57.7 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.50 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.50 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 32.50 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 42.50 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.50 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 77.50 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.50 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.43 13.60 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.75 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 531 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 399 Pork exports 187 194 199 204 Pork imports 173 167 154 160 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,005 Turkey exports 59 83 90 97 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,613 5,647 5,683 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.9 2.9 3.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.7 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.2 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 6,125 6,425 6,775 Pork 4,400 4,450 4,525 Broilers 6,450 6,650 6,750 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 1,400 Total Meat 18,462 19,089 19,677 Eggs, mil doz. 1,300 1,310 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 40,000 41,500 39,600 Commercial use 39,400 40,700 40,300 Net removals 200 200 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.0 17.8 Pork 12.7 12.8 13.2 Broilers 18.1 18.6 18.8 Turkeys 3.9 3.9 4.3 Total Meat 51.9 53.2 54.9 Eggs, number 58.5 58.5 59.1 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-69 63-69 60-64 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 65-69 62-68 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 33-35 36-38 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 41-43 36-40 38-42 Broiler,12 City 53-57 52-56 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern 60-64 60-66 61-67 Eggs, New York 73-77 61-67 62-68 Milk, all at plant 13.0-13.8 11.9-12.9 12.0-13.0 Milk, M-W 11.6-12.4 10.9-11.9 11.3-12.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 535 560 Beef/veal imports 500 540 540 Pork exports 190 230 225 Pork imports 165 165 160 Broiler exports 950 990 1,015 Turkey exports 64 88 92 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 END-END-END