LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY January 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-25. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. livestock and poultry producers have expanded meat output in spite of rising ration costs. Larger production will pressure prices below last year despite stronger export sales. Returns will be squeezed by higher grain prices, but most producers continue to make production plans on the assumption that a normal harvest will rebuild stocks and lower grain prices by fall. If crop prospects are not favorable this summer, liquidation of breeding animals could increase, leading to additional meat supplies in the short run and lower production next year. Sharply higher projected feed use and relatively tight world supplies have boosted international demand for coarse grains. Foreign use of coarse grains in livestock and poultry rations is projected to reach 421 million metric tons in 1995/96, compared to 412 million last year, and the previous 5-year average of 404 million. Strong export sales and seasonally higher feed use contributed to declining U.S. grain stocks. Corn stocks on December 1 dropped 24 percent below a year earlier, but remain nearly 3 percent above December 1993. The farm price of corn in December averaged $3.08 per bushel versus $2.13 a year earlier. The season average farm price of corn for the 1995/96 marketing year is projected at $3.00-$3.40 per bushel. Pressure on U.S. grain stocks may begin to ease this spring as Southern Hemisphere crops are harvested, along with a potentially sizeable domestic wheat crop. In addition, larger feed grain acreage is expected to be planted this spring for fall harvest. Pork Increases Could Be Substantial Rising grain prices since last summer have added nearly $5 per cwt to the cost of raising hogs. Grain price advances over the past quarter will add another $5 to the cost of hogs marketed this winter. Feed costs currently account for about 65 percent of cash expenses on smaller farrow-to-finish operations, but will rise to 70 percent this spring. Higher-cost producers may report significant losses at that time, leading to breeding herd reductions. Pork supplies during second-half 1996 could be sharply higher than a year earlier. Year-over-year increases in sows farrowing, more pigs saved per litter, and heavier carcass weights following last summers's heat-related declines could lead to 7 more production in the third quarter, from a year earlier, and 6 percent more in the fourth quarter. More constrained increases are expected in the spring quarter, following a likely 2-percent decline during January-March. The divergence between first- and second-half pork supplies reflects improving profit conditions within the industry over the past 12-14 months. Improving profits last summer led to modest herd rebuilding. Producers surveyed in early December reported intentions to have 1 percent more sows farrow during December-February than a year earlier. A 2-percent increase in farrowings is expected during March-May. September- November 1995 farrowings were about unchanged from 1994, but a 2- percent increase in the number of pigs saved per litter added about 400,000 head to the fall pig crop. These animals will reach market weight during the spring quarter, pushing production about 150 million pounds above last year. So far, the expansion in farrowings has occurred primarily by limiting culling from breeding herds. USDA weekly sow slaughter data continue to suggest producers are proceeding with plans to increase sow farrowings. The first signs of possible breeding herd reduction will appear as an increase in weekly sow slaughter. Sow slaughter will have to move above 4 percent of total hog slaughter for several weeks to confirm a change in producer strategies. Rising production costs in 1996 are expected to squeeze profit margins for most producers. Losses could be considerable for higher cost producers who likely will begin to reduce breeding herds this spring. Cash hog prices are forecast to range in the lower $40's per cwt this winter, decline seasonally into the spring, and show a slight seasonal gain during the summer quarter, but still average near $40 per cwt. Prices next fall may decline to the mid-$30's per cwt based on current production estimates. Hog inventories are projected to be down slightly a year from now, with the most severe cutbacks in states with large numbers of smaller producers. The number of U.S. hog operations in 1995 dropped to 182,700, 12 percent below the previous year. A similar decline is likely in 1996. This contrasts with continued growth of the largest operations, which expanded their share of the U.S. inventory from 37 percent in 1994 to 43 percent in 1995. These operations represent less than 3 percent of total hog farms, and nearly one-fourth of these operations are located in North Carolina. Lower retail pork prices are expected in 1996. Declines may be small, but rising pork production during second-half 1996 and large competing meat supplies will provide retailers ample opportunities to lower prices while protecting margins. Processor margins may be tight until market hog supplies pick up in the second half of the year, but higher volumes at that time should increase margins. The U.S. probably became a net exporter of pork in 1995 for the first time in over 40 years. Exports exceeded imports by about 130 million pounds, carcass weight basis. Exports have continued to surge in recent years, while rising domestic production and lower prices, together with lower U.S. dollar exchange rates have created a less attractive market for trading partners in the European Community. U.S. imports from Denmark and the Netherlands in 1995 fell more than 40 percent from a year earlier. The 1996 outlook for exports to Japan is clouded by the decision to impose the Safeguard mechanism on all imported pork, beginning November 1, 1995, and extending through the end of Japan's fiscal year, March 31, 1996. The Safeguard mechanism effectively increases the entry price (the "gateprice") of pork into Japan by 24 percent. The higher gateprice is expected to reduce U.S. exports to Japan by 20 to 40 percent during November-March, and the likelihood that the Safeguard will be re-triggered as early as summer 1996 already is being factored into 1996 export forecasts. Lower Stocker Cattle Prices Mitigate Higher Feed Costs Cattle feeders offset the rising cost of grain in 1995 by lowering bids for cattle placed on feed. Heavy stocker cattle prices declined sharply last spring as grain prices trended higher. Cattle prices remained under pressure through the summer and fall at prices that ranged $8-$20 per cwt below a year earlier, with lighter cattle facing the largest discounts. Current feedlot breakevens are averaging about $20 per head and are expected to remain positive through the winter. Further grain price increases, if they occur, likely would lead to additional declines in stocker cattle prices. Cow-calf and stocker cattle producers who sold cattle last fall faced sharply lower bids for their cattle, and the situation is not expected to improve near term. However, a near record hay crop and favorable accumulated grazing in most areas resulted in the second largest December 1 hay stocks since the mid-1980's. Consequently, more calves are being carried into 1996 with the expectation of seasonally stronger prices this spring. Losses in the stocker and cow-calf sector obscure the positive story coming from international markets. Rising exports have reduced surplus domestic beef supplies and likely kept domestic cattle prices from trending even lower. Gains in the international market have been profitable for processors and for the cattle feeders and producers who supply these companies. Beef exports are forecast to continue growing in 1996, with the U.S. likely becoming a net exporter for the first time since World War II. International competition in Asian markets, particularly for higher-quality fed beef, is expected to diminish near term as Australian producers cut back on slaughter to rebuild herds that have been reduced by several years of drought. Higher world grain prices also could reduce Australian grain-fed beef that had competed with U.S. products in Pacific Rim countries. Australian exports of processing beef (grass fed) to the U.S. fell sharply in 1995 due to increasing U.S. beef supplies and less attractive prices. Improved moisture conditions in Mexico, sharply reduced Mexican cattle inventories, and lower U.S. stocker-feeder cattle prices are slowing lighter weight cattle imports from Mexico. Imports in October, while rising seasonally, were about unchanged from a year earlier. This contrasts sharply with year-to-date imports through October 1995 that were up over 70 percent from a year earlier. Imports for the remainder of 1995 likely remained near to below 1994. Broiler Production Increasing Strong net returns in 1995 are fueling higher broiler production in 1996. Annual increases could reach 6 percent. The pullet chick hatch for placement in broiler-type hatchery supply flocks, a leading indicator of future production, was up 15 percent in November. A similar increase in the hatchery supply flock is possible next summer and fall. Wholesale broiler prices are expected to be stronger during the first half of 1996, than a year earlier, but declines are possible in the second half as production increases accelerate. Also, increasing feed costs will push breakeven prices toward 54 cents per pound on a whole bird basis by the second half. Industry profitability may depend on continued price strength for dark meat products moving into export markets. Dark meat parts prices remained relatively strong in January, possibly supported by lower production due to holiday closings of processing plants, and weather-disrupted markets in the East. Exports are expected to exceed 4 billion pounds this year, but the annual growth rate will slow to around 10 percent, compared to over 30 percent in 1995. Turkey Production Increasing Sharply Continued production increases are expected in 1996 because last year's net returns were the highest since 1986. First-quarter turkey production is expected to be up 2-3 percent, and about 4 percent for all of 1996. Production increases are being moderated by the prospect of higher feed costs, however. Breakeven prices are expected to approach 68 cents per pound this spring, which will probably be substantially above market prices at that time. While mid-January whole turkey prices are holding above last year, production increases are expected to drive wholesale prices lower later in the month. Dark meat prices are slightly weaker than a year ago, possibly indicating slower growth in export markets. Egg Prices Affected by Weather The blizzard that hit most major markets in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic region in early January caused New York large egg prices to increase 16 cents per dozen over a 2-week period. The increase in the 12 metro area price, that covers a much wider area, was only 1.5 cents per dozen. Lower New York egg prices can be expected when eastern markets have restocked. Lower production should keep returns positive during the first quarter of 1996, but larger available supplies should lead to substantial periods of losses during mid year. Breakeven prices are expected to approach 74 cents per dozen later this year, and lower net returns are expected for egg producers in 1996. Egg exports are expected to remain nearly unchanged from 1995 as increases in egg product exports offset declines in shell egg exports. Export Enhancement Program sales, which affect shell eggs, are expected to be well below last year as allocations for export bonuses have not been released for bids in the fourth quarter of 1995 or so far in 1996. Dairy Price Declines To Be Gradual Declining cheese and nonfat dry milk prices will gradually reduce farm milk prices in coming months. However, milk prices are projected to average 2-6 percent above a year earlier. The spring low in the Basic Formula Price (the replacement for the Minnesota - Wisconsin price) is expected to be above $11 per cwt. Seasonally larger cheese production is expected to begin pressuring cheese prices, but prices may not fall much until lower nonfat dry milk prices shift more milk over to cheese production. Also, growth of commercial sales and rebuilding low stocks from late 1995 will support near term prices. Nonfat dry milk prices could decline more sharply, possibly to the support purchase price of $1.065 per pound. Seasonal growth in milk production and lower subsidized exports reportedly are boosting available supplies. Butter prices recouped a dime of their December plunge and may be reasonably aligned with expected winter prices in international markets. Butter prices moving into spring are projected to be steady to slightly higher. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- December retail meat prices will be released February 1, 1996. Check our AUTOFAX service for updated numbers at that time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCTION INDICATORS Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Cattle: On feed - 7 States 8,914 7,968 8,707 9,074 Net placements 1,496 2,382 1,935 NA Marketings 1,540 1,643 1,568 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 538,783 537,802 524,729 571,143 Chicks hatched (000)/2 658,914 652,198 626,487 690,000 Hatching egg layers/1 48,255 49,319 49,445 50,385 Pullets placed (000) 6,413 6,013 6,666 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,856 5,864 5,029 4,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 32,629 32,034 31,681 31,697 Poults placed (000) 25,621 24,945 24,416 25,144 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 464 440 440 460 Table egg layers, (000)/1 247,537 236,537 239,987 244,440 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.9 71.2 71.7 73.5 Chicks hatched (000) 29,072 31,682 28,539 29,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9,378 7,477 6,729 7,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 64.90 59.72 60.18 60.18 Selling price 73.60 67.94 66.14 64.50 Net margin 8.70 8.22 5.96 4.32 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 37.32 38.42 38.41 39.11 Selling price 37.96 39.93 44.04 42.30 Net margin 0.64 1.51 5.63 3.19 Broiler Wholesale cost 47.17 50.33 51.67 52.40 Wholesale price 51.14 61.08 58.87 59.00 Net margin 3.97 10.75 7.20 6.60 Turkey Wholesale cost 58.96 62.53 63.82 66.00 Wholesale price 60.54 77.50 68.50 64.50 Net margin 1.58 14.97 4.68 -1.50 Egg Wholesale cost 64.33 71.54 72.69 74.46 Wholesale price 72.64 92.09 94.08 90.00 Net margin 8.31 20.55 21.39 15.54 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 73.60 67.94 66.14 64.50 Nebraska Direct 71.97 67.51 66.34 64.60 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 40.26 29.85 33.83 31.75 Utility boning 38.79 29.18 30.40 31.20 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 86.75 63.88 65.13 62.35 600-650 lb. 79.88 64.06 63.58 59.85 750-800 lb. 76.50 67.63 68.33 61.25 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 79.31 55.78 56.00 54.80 700-750 lb. 73.50 63.78 62.71 57.35 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 37.68 39.69 43.73 42.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 37.96 39.93 44.04 42.30 Sows 6 Markets 26.92 33.16 33.24 28.50 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 27.74 28.03 28.75 30.50 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 65.38 72.00 70.50 72.00 Ewes, Good 35.60 30.83 34.83 40.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 75.60 81.33 83.83 85.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.22 3.20 3.36 3.55 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.06 5.34 5.39 5.25 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 156.40 204.10 223.60 233.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 92.10 87.30 85.60 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 84.80 81.00 80.30 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 112.17 108.88 106.08 102.35 Choice 1-3 700-850# 112.08 107.14 104.01 100.40 Select 1-3 700-850# 107.22 94.76 94.39 96.83 Cutter Cow 73.63 58.94 58.82 60.85 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 104.29 82.75 84.73 90.25 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 105.19 96.05 94.25 92.00 Hide & offal value 9.51 8.58 8.39 8.20 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 165.92 170.83 164.52 166.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 53.72 60.67 62.46 59.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 96.94 93.94 110.39 108.75 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 36.03 47.28 51.45 49.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 46.40 64.55 55.99 50.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 34.49 43.19 43.33 41.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 147.50 160.25 165.25 165.25 55-65 lb., Choice 142.50 160.25 160.25 156.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 51.14 61.08 58.87 59.00 Georgia dock 50.50 59.01 57.78 57.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 156.76 165.47 153.57 162.00 Breast, Ribs on 72.32 81.39 73.75 79.00 Legs, whole 50.13 57.89 58.66 59.00 Leg quarters 32.17 43.42 42.65 44.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 61.05 78.07 68.41 64.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 60.71 80.31 70.35 65.00 Drumsticks 27.86 27.65 28.44 27.00 Wings, full cut 26.82 31.10 30.90 31.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 72.64 92.09 94.08 90.00 New York 65.20 91.10 91.80 94.00 /* Estimate MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jan-95 Jan-96 Nov-95 Dec-95 /* Jan-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 2,009 25,041 2,089 1,991 2,205 Veal 27 307 27 26 26 Pork 1,500 17,917 1,609 1,513 1,558 Lamb 24 284 23 23 24 Total red meat 3,560 43,549 3,748 3,553 3,813 Broilers 1,887 25,035 1,986 2,040 2,250 Other chicken 42 495 39 37 42 Turkeys 348 5,120 454 390 420 Total poultry 2,277 30,649 2,479 2,467 2,712 Total meat & poultry 5,837 74,198 6,227 6,020 6,525 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 2,869 35,473 2,967 2,804 3,093 Steers 1,434 18,263 1,398 1,395 1,546 Heifers 819 10,384 879 791 897 Beef Cows 280 3,243 364 312 309 Dairy Cows 284 2,907 268 256 288 Bulls and stags 52 678 58 50 53 Calves 124 1,430 129 129 130 Sheep 386 4,544 378 359 380 Hogs 8,092 96,841 8,595 8,066 8,325 Barrows & gilts 7,682 92,174 8,215 7,708 7,982 Sows 333 3,783 312 298 285 Broilers 557,199 7,378,449 579,933 585,000 650,000 Turkeys 19,036 281,119 25,630 21,500 21,800 Jan-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 /* Jan-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 707 718 711 714 718 Calves 224 212 208 208 207 Sheep 64 61 62 63 63 Hogs 186 185 188 188 188 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 411.2 347.7 380.8 380.7 390.1 Pork 365.3 332.6 321.7 347.1 335.0 Bellies 61.1 6.3 13.5 37.1 47.6 Hams 33.4 114.7 94.6 60.9 38.0 Total chicken 472.1 500.1 520.6 512.6 567.7 Turkey 254.4 686.0 644.4 269.1 271.1 Frozen eggs 19.5 16.2 14.4 12.5 13.8 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Sep-95 Oct-95 Jan - Jan - Oct-94 Oct-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 44,697 59,240 760,145 578,156 New Zealand 25,659 22,049 471,035 521,763 Canada 38,880 43,050 390,973 365,764 Brazil 5,580 5,334 120,360 56,693 Argentina 17,402 20,330 117,361 147,778 Central America 12,051 9,049 170,579 121,406 Other 2,408 1,622 24,703 19,390 Total 146,678 160,674 2,055,155 1,810,949 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 94,360 93,512 696,795 828,898 Canada 28,287 28,460 226,765 256,089 Mexico 9,153 7,109 181,012 78,583 Korea, Rep. 19,711 23,760 137,270 211,467 Caribbean 940 1,124 8,526 9,785 Other 10,749 13,130 60,879 101,531 Total 163,200 167,095 1,311,246 1,486,353 Cattle Imports Mexico 48,789 85,742 786,283 1,368,877 Canada 107,591 94,760 892,388 973,471 Over 700 lbs. 103,112 88,631 836,066 917,906 500-700 lbs. 1,033 2,323 10,815 7,749 Total 156,380 180,508 1,678,750 2,342,403 Cattle Exports Mexico 1,742 2,025 108,186 12,030 Canada 3,448 8,187 70,082 56,340 Total 6,484 13,256 185,499 78,088 Lamb Imports Australia 1,403 2,468 19,072 15,610 New Zealand 1,780 1,803 12,809 18,761 Total 3,217 4,343 31,891 34,841 Mutton Imports 883 1,221 9,693 16,932 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 12/31/94 12/31/95 % Chg Canada 380,766 368,942 -3.1% TRQ Countries 1,214,300 985,457 -18.8% Australia 662,825 474,265 -28.4% New Zealand 392,173 409,525 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sep-95 Oct-95 Jan - Jan - Oct-94 Oct-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 32,836 43,616 353,919 381,533 Denmark 10,830 12,723 213,861 118,605 Poland 910 1,224 8,985 9,578 Hungary 1,105 628 16,200 9,627 Netherlands 340 1,060 14,299 8,600 Other 2,378 2,676 26,573 27,730 Total 48,399 61,927 633,838 555,674 Pork Exports Japan 47,110 40,593 197,581 313,728 Canada 5,645 5,033 41,904 44,121 Mexico 3,612 5,276 118,236 48,389 Caribbean 986 866 5,594 8,615 Other 15,381 17,263 46,172 234,510 Total 72,734 69,031 409,486 649,364 Hog Imports Head Canada 175,377 216,340 736,629 1,404,230 Under 110 lb 57,276 59,418 321,442 557,964 Total 175,377 216,363 742,126 1,406,599 Hog Exports Total 1,932 636 73,521 10,207 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 25,014 25,623 205,869 212,887 Mexico 19,400 20,571 178,448 169,726 Hong Kong 85,702 83,153 556,836 816,002 Singapore 3,714 4,466 53,725 40,894 Canada 7,380 8,053 64,287 63,914 Former USSR 105,121 153,896 621,665 1,150,058 Total 308,458 391,579 2,278,348 3,139,024 Turkey Exports Mexico 12,012 13,144 116,395 100,396 S. Korea 3,042 3,112 20,144 31,301 Hong Kong 2,392 2,445 5,531 16,970 Total 29,795 42,555 210,354 274,578 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 8,654 12,888 93,843 86,939 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,090 11,014 10,634 11,094 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,094 8,098 8,088 8,082 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,370 1,360 1,315 1,373 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,871 12,758 12,318 12,851 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.80 13.40 13.90 13.90 Milk for fluid use 12.90 13.50 14.00 14.00 Manuf. grade milk 11.50 12.70 13.00 12.90 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.38 12.61 12.87 12.91 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 67.0 95.4 103.5 74.4 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 121.3 145.0 145.8 144.6 Barrels 138.7 138.8 135.4 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.9 108.6 113.4 117.6 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,463 2,563 2,638 2,563 Nonfat dry milk 1,800 2,317 2,288 2,238 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 9.8 22.9 16.9 9.4 Commercial American cheese 309.3 319.8 312.3 296.4 Other cheese 124.5 108.5 106.3 95.1 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 89.1 78.3 70.1 50.3 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,197 4,520 4,259 3,801 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,528 5,407 5,174 4,613 All Government (mf. basis) 1,664 224 155 288 All Government (ss. basis) 394 228 242 4 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 20.6 1.6 1.0 Cheese 0.3 0.3 0.3 Nonfat dry milk 25.5 29.6 7.0 6.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 486.0 55.6 37.3 2.6 All products (ss basis 2/) 334.7 360.5 97.6 74.1 Nov-94 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 100.7 82.2 94.4 91.5 American cheese 240.0 251.3 248.7 248.8 Other-than-American cheese 319.4 324.4 336.9 337.7 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 84.7 97.8 92.1 81.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 7313.4 7471.8 7538.3 7181.0 Nonfat dry milk 88.8 76.9 75.4 71.6 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 91.3 89.6 99.0 NA American cheese 242.7 271.4 257.3 NA Other-than-American cheese 362.7 361.0 369.5 NA Nonfat dry milk 63.1 83.2 54.0 NA All products (mf. basis) 12368.0 13106.0 13236.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 299.0 240.4 272.6 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,520 5,664 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 4.3 5.5 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 7.1 6.6 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 25,041 25,750 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,807 18,325 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,036 26,550 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,132 5,350 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,029 76,960 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,265 5,232 5,350 Milk 150,582 153,626 155,803 160,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 155,221 159,800 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,137 700 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.0 67.2 67.6 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.3 52.9 Broilers 68.4 69.8 70.4 73.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.6 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 211.5 211.6 216.6 Eggs, number 236.2 238.6 235.2 239.0 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66.73 63-67 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 68.03 63-68 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 36.05 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 42.86 38-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 57.13 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 66.85 62-66 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 72.85 65-70 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.77 12.4-13.4 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.83 11.4-12.3 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,850 2,120 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,368 2,050 2,080 Pork exports 435 531 784 900 Pork imports 740 743 654 650 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,753 4,015 Turkey exports 212 281 329 345 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,364 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 16.9 17.4 16.5 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.5 3.8 4.4 6.1 Total Meat 50.4 52.1 54.1 54.9 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 681 602 586 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 60 67 61 93 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,470 5,488 5,545 5,576 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.6 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,602 6,250 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,685 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,183 6,350 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,350 Total Meat 17,984 18,605 18,535 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,295 1,283 1,340 Milk (mf basis) 38,950 40,484 38,442 37,927 Commercial use 37,549 39,454 39,318 38,900 Net removals 1,046 752 243 96 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.2 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.6 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 17.6 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.4 53.0 52.6 54.6 Eggs, number 59.3 58.0 57.7 60.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.05 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 32.50 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.22 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.43 13.73 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 531 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 399 Pork exports 187 194 199 204 Pork imports 173 167 154 160 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,005 Turkey exports 59 83 90 97 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,613 5,647 5,683 5,716 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 Production, million lb. Beef 6,125 6,425 6,775 6,425 Pork 4,400 4,450 4,525 4,950 Broilers 6,450 6,650 6,750 6,700 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,462 19,089 19,677 19,732 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,800 41,400 39,600 39,200 Commercial use 38,900 40,600 40,300 40,000 Net removals 200 200 100 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.0 17.8 16.5 Pork 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.2 Broilers 18.1 18.6 18.8 18.4 Turkeys 3.9 3.9 4.3 6.5 Total Meat 51.9 53.2 54.9 56.6 Eggs, number 59.5 59.1 59.1 61.3 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-69 63-69 60-64 62-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 65-69 62-68 62-68 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 33-35 36-38 34-36 33-35 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 41-43 36-40 38-42 35-37 Broiler,12 City 54-58 53-57 53-57 49-53 Turkeys, Eastern 60-64 60-66 61-67 64-70 Eggs, New York 73-77 61-67 62-68 64-70 Milk, all at plant 13.0-13.8 11.9-12.9 12.0-12.9 12.8-13.8 Milk, M-W 11.7-12.4 10.9-11.8 11.2-12.1 11.8-12.8 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 500 540 540 500 Pork exports 190 230 225 255 Pork imports 165 165 160 160 Broiler exports 950 990 1,015 1,060 Turkey exports 64 88 92 101 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 END-END-END