LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY April 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-28. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hog Expansion Slowing The U.S. hog inventory on March 1 was about unchanged from a year earlier. Breeding inventories were down 1 percent, while market hog inventories were slightly larger. The numbers reflect several revisions over the past two quarters that suggest a more modest rate of expansion occurred during second-half 1995. Pork supplies for the remaining three quarters of 1996 have been revised down based on inventory data reported in the March Hogs and Pigs report. The number of sows farrowing during September-November and December- February was lowered about 50,000 head, which will reduce pork supplies this spring and summer about 100 million pounds each quarter. Slaughter hog supplies next fall also are projected lower based on a 100,000-head reduction in March-May sow farrowing intentions from those published earlier. These revisions will lower 1996 pork production about 3 percent from earlier projections. The biggest adjustments will come in the second half. Summer quarter production still is expected to show year-over-year increases, but gains will be limited to about 4 percent. Fall quarter production may only be up marginally from a year earlier. Price projections have been adjusted higher to reflect lower production. Live hog prices are projected to average in the upper $40's per cwt through late spring, near $50 this summer, and in the mid-$40's next fall. These prices, if realized, will be nearly $5 per cwt higher than 1995, reflecting lower per capita supplies and projected tighter packer margins. Smaller packer margins, particularly over the past 2 months, likely added several dollars to cash hog prices. Expanded slaughter capacity at several plants kept packers bidding aggressively for hogs, but this situation likely is not sustainable. Eventually cash bids will be lowered or slaughter requirements reduced to build support for higher wholesale prices. Seasonally smaller hog supplies this spring may contribute to near term price strength, but may not assist packers attempting to rebuild margins. An additional concern for packers may arise if grain prices remain high and producers cut back production plans. Normal crop development this spring and summer will be critical for the sector. Higher grain prices already are taking their toll on many producers' profits in spite of generally favorable hog prices. Grain prices are projected to remain high into midsummer, which will affect breakeven costs through the end of the year. Breeding decisions already are being tempered by high grain prices. The number of sows farrowing during June-August is projected to be unchanged from a year earlier and down 3 percent from 1994, based on first intentions reported by producers surveyed in early March. Grain prices have continued to increase since the survey, and producer concerns over rising grain prices may cause further reductions. Cash breakeven prices for hogs already are approaching the upper $40's per cwt for animals born this spring and marketed in the fall. Prospects for a reduced corn crop and a continuation of higher grain prices would lead to higher sow culling. The number of sows culled from breeding herds during the first quarter was below the previous 5-year average, but the pace is expected to pick up through the summer quarter. Even then, year-over-year increases are expected to remain below 5 percent. Slaughter supplies are projected to decline into late summer, with weekly average kills moving from over 1.8 million head in April to 1.65 million in July. Price gains during this period may be muted by current market strength, which likely is related to stronger export sales and tighter packer margins. The U.S. became a net exporter of pork in 1995, exporting 107 million pounds more than it imported on a carcass weight basis. U.S. pork exports in 1995 totaled 771 million pounds, 45 percent higher than a year earlier. The largest export markets were Japan, Russia, Mexico, and Canada. Pork imports in 1995 were largely of Danish and Canadian origin. The U.S. likely will maintain net exporter status in 1996, with exports expected to increase 10 percent from 1995, to about 850 million pounds. Pork imports should remain near 1995 levels. Growth in 1996 export markets is expected to come primarily from Russia, Mexico, and Hong Kong. The Republic of Korea is expected to reduce its 1996 imports due to rising domestic production and lower prices. Russia was the second largest foreign buyer of U.S. pork in 1995, taking 153 million pounds. Most of the shipments consisted of frozen, lower value trimmings material used in sausage production. Russia's meat and poultry production continues to fall, and domestic producers are finding it difficult to compete with lower priced imports. For 1996, Russian imports from the U.S. are expected to increase 2-3 percent. Longer term growth remains uncertain, but short term meat protein requirements likely will be sourced from other countries. Beef Prices Under Pressure During March-April the beef sector has been pressured from nearly all directions. Rather than rising seasonally as the early spring barbecue season begins and slaughter begins to decline, prices have done just the opposite. A cold, wet spring in the eastern U.S. has held down any hint of seasonal price strength. In addition, larger cattle slaughter and heavier weights are keeping production well above a year earlier. Consequently, fed cattle prices dropped from $62-$63 per cwt in March to the upper $50's in April. Supplies are large, but it is difficult to separate the impact of poor weather demand from international coverage of the U.K.-European Union deliberations on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (Mad Cow disease). Beef prices are reaching levels that will test demand fairly quickly as warmer weather finally arrives. Fed beef supplies are likely beginning to decline as feedlot placements, although large, continue well below a year earlier. Fed cattle marketings remain large and cattle on feed inventories in the 7 States in lots with over 1,000 head of capacity were below a year earlier. Sharply reduced feeder cattle imports from Mexico and continued large calf slaughter will help hold down feeder cattle supplies. Equally as unsettling as the low fed cattle prices, particularly for the intermediate term, has been the continued sharp rise in grain prices, and increasingly uncertain crop and pasture-range conditions for this spring and summer. Much of the Great Plains remains dry, with the driest conditions centered in the hard red winter wheat production areas of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This year's wheat crop at best likely will provide little cushion to tight grain stocks. Although remaining dry, moisture conditions have improved to some degree in the eastern areas of the Great Plains as spring grazing season begins. The first report on pasture and range conditions will be released in May. Forage supplies have been reduced as larger cattle inventories and poor late winter-early spring conditions have forced increased supplemental feeding. At least an average or better grazing season will be necessary if cow-calf and stocker operators are going to avoid forced sales at even lower prices. Corn prices have risen over 50 cents a bushel from March with the record setting pace continuing. Central Illinois corn prices averaged $2.41 a bushel in April 1995, but are likely to average close to $4.50 this year. Lower fed cattle prices and sharply higher feed costs have forced feeder cattle prices to the lows reached in the mid-1980's and unless crop and pasture prospects improve quickly, prices could be forced even lower as herd liquidation begins in earnest. Cow slaughter last fall was up less than 7 percent from a year earlier and likely somewhat lighter than it should have been. Favorable forage supplies enabled producers to avoid low cull cow prices and hold them over winter to be sold in late winter and early spring when cow slaughter normally declines seasonally and prices rise. However, dry conditions in early spring were forcing additional cows to be slaughtered as forage supplies were depleted. Prices for Utility cows have averaged $3 to $4 a cwt above the fall lows over the past couple of months. But prices began to break below $30 per cwt in mid-April as cow slaughter continued sharply above a year earlier. Prices are also under pressure from large fed beef supplies and sharply lower imported and domestic processing beef prices. In April 1994 and 1995, 90- percent fresh lean processing beef averaged $124 and $94 per cwt, respectively. Currently, prices are in the low-$70's, down from near $100 at the beginning of the year. Broiler Production Expansion Slowing Broiler chick placements have been reported down from a year ago for the last 3 weeks, in the 15 weekly survey States. National hatch has consistently shown stronger increases than the weekly States so birds available for slaughter in late May and June are probably nearly the same as a year ago. Strong increases in weights per bird so far this year indicate that even if slaughter declines slightly, production will still be larger than last year. Chicks hatched during February were up about 4 percent from a year ago, indicating a strong production increase during April. Production estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 1996 have been reduced because of higher feed costs and lower net returns. Meat production during the second and fourth quarters is expected to increase 4-5 percent from a year earlier. The third quarter is expected to have a stronger increase, because extremely hot weather reduced third-quarter production in 1995. Trade disputes and tariff increases in China and Russia have caused broiler cold storage stocks to reach record levels. First- and second-quarter ending stocks are estimated to be 30-40 percent above last year. Smaller increases in stocks are expected for later in the year as markets adjust to the new trade conditions. Exports of most poultry products continued to expand strongly in January 1996. Broiler exports totaled 309 million pounds, 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Exports to Russia were again the largest to any one country totaling 130 million pounds, 28 percent above the previous year. While exports to Russia were strong in January, a trade dispute on health issues will likely reduce exports in February and March. The strong broiler exports were also boosted by sharply higher exports to Poland, Mexico, China, and Japan. Broiler exports to Poland were 28 million pounds in January compared with only 1 million a year earlier and 111 million in all of 1995. Exports to Mexico were up 16 percent to 17 million pounds, reflecting a continued strengthening of the Mexican economy. Turkey Production Expansion Continuing Low net returns for turkey producers during early 1996 do not appear to have caused a production cutback. Cumulative poult placements, September 1995 through March 1996, for slaughter during 1996 are 1 percent above last year and weight increases of 1-2 percent per bird during the first 2 months of the year indicate continuing production increases. Poult placements were reported to be down 2 percent in March after a strong 6- percent increase in February, but eggs in incubators on April 1st were up 6 percent, indicating placements should continue strong. Turkey exports rose to 28 million pounds in January, 76 percent higher than a year earlier. Exports to Mexico, the largest market, had fallen in 1995, but January's shipments were 12 million pounds, up 52 percent. The other area of strength was Poland and Russia. Together these two countries took 10 million pounds of turkey products in January. In comparison, shipments to the two countries in January 1995 totaled only 1 million pounds. Egg Prices Remain Above Expectations Despite a 10-cent decline in wholesale egg prices since Easter, egg prices were still 15-20 cents per dozen above a year ago in mid-April. Per capita supplies of eggs were nearly unchanged from a year ago for the first quarter and are projected above a year ago for the second quarter. Strong export demand has provided some support for the egg market, but prices are expected to decline as flock size increases from last year accelerate in the second quarter. After declining in 1995, exports of shell eggs rose 29 percent in January. Higher shipments to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Mexico, and Brazil more than offset lower shipments to Canada and Japan. Shipments of egg products also were higher, rising to the shell equivalent of 9.8 million dozen in January, up 100 percent. The majority of the increase was from stronger exports to Mexico and Japan. The large increase to Mexico stems from a stronger economy and the delayed effects of the peso devaluation on Mexican egg production. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,227 8,667 8,304 8,152 Net placements 1,614 1,323 1,389 1,610 Marketings 1,513 1,686 1,541 1,476 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 551,501 570,863 566,333 573,793 Chicks hatched (000)/2 679,090 686,359 646,085 700,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,226 50,538 50,847 51,708 Pullets placed (000) 6,161 5,538 5,916 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,193 5,684 5,118 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 35,172 35,760 36,668 36,182 Poults placed (000) 28,524 27,550 27,549 27,969 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 458 453 421 455 Table egg layers, (000)/1 245,647 246,703 245,714 245,389 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.0 72.2 70.1 71.8 Chicks hatched (000) 36,021 31,547 34,652 38,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9,239 8,456 8,207 7,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 67.67 63.00 64.12 65.20 Selling price 67.54 63.00 61.77 60.10 Net margin -0.13 -2.35 -5.10 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.83 39.90 40.76 42.30 Selling price 36.04 46.51 49.07 50.00 Net margin -0.79 6.61 8.31 7.70 Broiler Wholesale cost 47.66 53.58 54.41 54.80 Wholesale price 51.51 55.31 54.31 56.00 Net margin 3.85 1.73 -0.10 1.20 Turkey Wholesale cost 59.53 67.21 69.17 70.51 Wholesale price 59.62 65.04 64.26 65.00 Net margin 0.09 -2.17 -4.91 -5.51 Egg Wholesale cost 65.62 75.85 76.68 77.78 Wholesale price 72.92 89.18 94.91 90.00 Net margin 7.30 13.33 18.23 12.22 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 67.54 63.00 61.77 60.10 Nebraska Direct 66.63 62.76 62.52 60.35 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 40.56 37.56 37.06 34.75 Utility boning 38.47 33.06 32.56 30.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 83.38 62.31 62.25 59.85 600-650 lb. 76.69 58.94 58.66 55.60 750-800 lb. 65.41 58.41 55.78 54.10 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 74.25 54.19 52.53 49.40 700-750 lb. 62.66 54.09 52.03 49.70 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 35.77 46.54 48.76 49.80 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 36.04 46.51 49.07 50.00 Sows 6 Markets 31.08 34.55 36.59 37.20 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 36.96 34.46 43.50 34.50 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 68.58 85.63 83.60 82.50 Ewes, Good 35.31 41.88 41.18 38.50 Feeder lambs, Choice 78.81 95.63 96.06 84.25 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* $/bu. Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.41 3.71 3.92 4.40 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.86 5.59 5.53 6.25 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 161.90 228.29 226.57 248.50 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 89.40 88.20 89.10 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 86.10 81.20 83.40 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt. Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 103.03 98.86 96.36 96.30 Choice 1-3 700-850# 103.25 97.87 95.60 95.65 Select 1-3 700-850# 99.76 93.90 93.95 93.20 Cutter Cow 72.91 61.48 59.86 57.85 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 94.46 83.75 79.91 74.20 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 94.63 87.13 83.19 78.00 Hide & offal value 9.36 8.05 8.00 8.22 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 164.19 160.88 167.44 166.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 51.64 64.39 67.18 67.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 93.33 116.43 120.49 120.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 33.83 56.33 64.50 68.75 Hams, 20-26 lb. 44.00 56.84 59.08 55.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 31.51 41.05 44.54 44.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 156.25 175.00 176.25 176.25 55-65 lb., Choice 154.25 171.25 176.25 176.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 51.51 55.31 54.31 56.00 Georgia dock 50.61 55.59 54.07 55.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 160.16 152.48 159.92 162.00 Breast, Ribs on 79.73 77.74 80.31 81.00 Legs, whole 50.64 56.69 50.15 50.50 Leg quarters 32.69 38.97 32.55 34.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 60.35 64.70 65.00 66.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 60.05 64.65 65.07 65.00 Drumsticks 23.65 25.90 26.64 28.00 Wings, full cut 27.02 32.04 32.91 35.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 72.92 89.18 94.91 90.00 New York 66.65 85.70 91.79 87.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 284.7 281.5 278.8 275.8 Beef - All Fresh 265.3 257.7 255.8 252.4 Ground Beef 139.2 135.0 140.3 137.5 Rib roast 495.2 503.9 504.0 505.0 T-bone steak 593.8 567.9 556.1 566.1 Pork 193.5 201.1 208.2 209.7 Bacon 191.0 213.8 220.3 220.2 Chops 313.4 334.7 326.8 331.7 Picnic 108.0 118.8 117.5 119.3 Chicken - Composite 145.1 146.3 149.3 144.1 Whole, fresh 91.7 94.1 94.0 93.3 Breast - bone in 202.8 196.7 202.8 191.4 Leg quarter 115.3 121.8 123.2 121.7 Turkey; whole frozen 102.2 103.5 104.7 106.9 Eggs, Grade A, Large 87.5 115.5 109.1 113.8 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 151.4 154.4 154.9 155.7 All food 147.4 151.0 150.8 151.6 All meat 135.5 137.6 137.5 137.6 Beef & veal 136.9 135.0 134.8 134.4 Pork 132.9 139.4 140.0 140.7 Poultry 143.3 148.0 149.4 148.0 Dairy Products 132.2 136.3 137.2 136.7 Fluid milk & cream 131.8 136.8 137.3 137.4 Manufactured products 133.1 136.5 137.7 136.7 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 19.4 22.8 21.1 18.4 Wholesale to retail 119.0 125.3 126.6 127.4 Farmers share (%) 51.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 31.7 35.0 31.6 30.6 Wholesale to retail 102.1 99.0 102.5 101.4 Farmers share (%) 31.0 33.0 36.0 37.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 86.4 82.9 87.9 84.9 Turkey 33.7 30.4 30.7 33.6 Eggs 16.9 24.7 20.9 19.9 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Apr-95 Apr-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 7,742 8,449 2,048 2,034 2,147 Veal 100 117 30 30 27 Pork 5,892 5,893 1,417 1,421 1,505 Lamb 105 99 24 27 25 Total red meat 13,839 14,558 3,519 3,512 3,704 Broilers 8,059 8,808 2,149 2,125 2,250 Other chicken 170 171 41 40 45 Turkeys 1,568 1,690 429 425 420 Total poultry 9,798 10,669 2,620 2,590 2,715 Total meat & poultry 23,637 25,227 6,139 6,102 6,419 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 11,079 12,030 2,926 2,902 3,062 Steers 5,619 5,923 1,428 1,433 1,512 Heifers 3,209 3,600 878 879 926 Beef Cows 1,025 1,228 298 287 304 Dairy Cows 1,011 1,065 270 249 263 Bulls and stags 215 218 52 54 58 Calves 449 565 143 145 134 Sheep 1,670 1,519 364 414 378 Hogs 31,771 31,784 7,661 7,699 8,133 Barrows & gilts 30,245 30,298 7,304 7,336 7,737 Sows 1,215 1,234 298 303 322 Broilers 2,383,340 2,516,662 613,099 615,000 645,000 Turkeys 83,706 88,875 22,818 22,500 22,000 Apr-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* .I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 703 715 707 708 707 Calves 230 214 212 212 209 Sheep 63 63 66 67 67 Hogs 187 188 186 185 185 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 384.5 389.6 367.9 362.6 342.7 Pork 414.7 334.8 382.2 385.5 342.3 Bellies 79.0 47.6 46.5 46.4 47.7 Hams 44.5 38.3 59.5 54.9 35.8 Total chicken 492.9 567.3 668.5 668.2 694.3 Turkey 432.1 271.3 339.2 423.1 445.1 Frozen eggs 18.5 13.8 15.6 16.2 12.4 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Dec-95 Jan-96 Jan - Jan - Dec -94 Dec -95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt., thousand lbs. Australia 47,922 51,515 876,360 670,440 New Zealand 35,944 40,447 527,877 579,335 Canada 37,866 46,055 460,224 445,614 Brazil 5,084 5,793 125,782 67,509 Argentina 12,037 16,468 141,145 172,220 Central America 13,574 12,598 206,375 144,511 Other 2,485 3,886 30,608 23,843 Total 154,912 176,761 2,368,372 2,103,472 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 74,485 80,579 832,429 1,004,452 Canada 26,727 25,862 285,716 311,982 Mexico 8,292 10,333 223,022 92,302 Korea, Rep. 31,989 20,072 177,286 272,176 Caribbean 1,275 856 11,400 12,360 Other 13,428 10,661 80,946 127,541 Total 156,196 148,364 1,610,800 1,820,813 Cattle Imports Mexico 113,156 50,008 1,072,126 1,653,408 Canada 67,397 114,578 1,010,299 1,132,691 Over 700 lbs. 60,021 103,302 943,579 1,063,720 500-700 lbs. 3,891 7,191 13,649 14,641 Total 180,553 164,597 2,082,504 2,786,245 Cattle Exports Mexico 1,821 3,454 128,636 14,641 Canada 5,680 3,220 92,365 67,442 Total 8,466 16,832 230,791 94,548 Lamb Imports Australia 2,997 2,245 22,762 21,568 New Zealand 1,203 1,203 15,911 21,106 Total 4,264 3,449 38,683 43,284 Mutton Imports 2,017 1,521 10,723 20,257 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 4/15/95 4/14/96 % Chg Canada 95,119 129,696 36.35 TRQ Countries 303,151 250,289 -17.44 Australia 139,758 99,903 -28.52 New Zealand 123,017 115,623 -6.01 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dec-95 Jan-96 Jan - Jan - Dec -94 Dec -95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lbs. Canada 35,805 34,028 421,768 453,925 Denmark 12,258 8,443 244,545 144,516 Poland 740 249 11,581 11,984 Hungary 478 305 18,210 10,608 Netherlands 1,161 831 16,769 10,671 Other 2,340 1,823 30,896 32,258 Total 52,782 45,678 743,769 663,963 Pork Exports Japan 22,881 27,478 239,876 364,676 Canada 6,077 7,378 52,902 57,771 Mexico 6,360 5,912 150,252 59,855 Caribbean 1,281 473 8,351 11,120 Other 23,813 23,951 80,607 277,286 Total 60,411 65,193 531,988 770,707 Hog Imports Head Canada 180,421 219,454 914,755 1,747,160 Under 110 lb 42,253 50,791 401,981 651,096 Total 181,029 219,520 921,274 1,750,138 Hog Exports Total 3,217 13,770 136,148 16,059 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lbs. Japan 18,550 20,543 254,490 252,573 Mexico 17,312 17,126 220,937 203,634 Hong Kong 75,003 44,731 714,378 973,128 Singapore 7,242 4,638 64,568 52,362 Canada 5,805 5,297 78,935 75,988 Former USSR 202,099 130,375 818,489 1,484,190 Total 419,464 309,250 2,875,509 3,894,072 Turkey Exports Mexico 15,499 11,690 175,923 136,365 S. Korea 1,736 1,432 24,486 35,153 Hong Kong 649 1,094 7,059 19,321 Total 38,620 27,958 280,424 348,012 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,158 9,072 110,415 109,004 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,709 11,285 10,719 11,686 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,061 8,026 8,010 8,004 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,453 1,406 1,338 1,460 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,640 13,111 12,453 13,576 Milk prices: $/cwt All milk 12.70 14.00 13.80 13.80 Milk for fluid use 12.70 14.00 13.90 13.80 Manuf. grade milk 11.70 12.70 12.60 12.50 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.89 12.73 12.59 12.70 Wholesale prices: Cents/lb Grade A butter 66.5 75.4 66.4 65.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 131.1 139.3 139.3 140.9 Barrels 127.5 133.5 134.0 135.2 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 107.8 114.9 110.8 110.1 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,033 2,404 2,113 2,063 Nonfat dry milk 2,139 2,229 2,138 2,074 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 25.7 15.8 22.1 30.1 Commercial American cheese 321.2 306.6 323.1 329.2 Other cheese 127.0 105.3 118.1 119.3 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 94.0 70.6 71.7 80.0 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,733 4,116 4,493 4,752 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,795 5,055 5,351 5,540 All Government (mf. basis) 1,405 69 80 81 All Government (ss. basis) 343 172 165 122 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 Nonfat dry milk 46.6 3.9 5.4 31.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 329.7 5.6 6.5 12.8 All products (ss basis 2/) 592.4 51.2 68.5 367.5 Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 120.3 111.2 125.4 118.1 American cheese 240.2 278.2 275.4 270.8 Other-than-American cheese 288.2 331.4 312.6 316.6 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 85.5 68.3 77.7 85.7 All products (mf basis 2/) 7531.9 7683.4 7949.3 7918.3 Nonfat dry milk 98.3 99.4 98.9 93.0 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb Butter 116.8 107.0 120.7 NA American cheese 238.0 270.4 259.3 NA Other-than-American cheese 313.9 360.2 312.3 NA Nonfat dry milk 73.4 71.5 94.1 NA All products (mf. basis) 12066.0 12777.0 12751.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 204.2 342.6 160.3 NA Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ NA 6,605 6,740 6,862 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 5.8 5.6 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 5.1 5.5 4.8 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.7 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 25,115 25,835 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,812 17,875 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,021 26,500 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,129 5,375 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 74,071 76,567 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,266 5,244 5,355 Milk 150,582 153,626 155,643 157,040 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 155,126 157,500 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,137 425 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.0 67.4 68.0 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.4 51.8 Broilers 68.4 69.8 69.7 73.5 Turkeys 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.5 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 211.5 211.3 215.5 Eggs, number 236.2 238.7 234.7 237.7 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66.74 62-65 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 68.03 58-61 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 36.05 33-35 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 42.85 46-48 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 57.13 54-56 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 66.85 64-68 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 72.85 72-76 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.77 13.2-13.9 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.83 12.2-12.8 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,821 2,120 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,368 2,104 2,110 Pork exports 435 531 770 850 Pork imports 740 743 664 665 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,895 4,070 Turkey exports 212 281 348 367 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996. Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,505 6,582 6,640 6,692 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.4 5.2 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.0 Production, Million lb Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,366 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 16.9 17.4 16.5 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.5 3.8 4.4 6.1 Total Meat 50.4 52.1 54.1 54.9 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 681 602 586 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 60 67 61 93 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996. QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,702 6,709 6,763 6,784 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,617 18,555 18,906 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,540 39,484 39,202 38,900 Net removals 1,046 752 243 96 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.1 57.9 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 32.50 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.43 13.73 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,806 6,841 6,881 6,922 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,310 6,425 6,700 6,400 Pork 4,400 4,350 4,400 4,725 Broilers 6,550 6,650 6,650 6,650 Turkeys 1,250 1,325 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,783 18,992 19,370 19,422 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,140 40,600 38,800 38,500 Commercial use 38,800 39,700 39,600 39,400 Net removals 25 200 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.0 17.6 16.5 Pork 12.7 12.5 12.8 13.8 Broilers 17.8 18.8 18.6 18.3 Turkeys 3.5 4.1 4.5 6.4 Total Meat 51.9 53.3 54.4 55.9 Eggs, number 59.1 58.9 58.9 60.8 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.10 63-65 60-64 61-67 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56-58 58-62 60-64 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.53 33-35 34-36 33-35 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.20 47-49 48-52 42-46 Broiler,12 City 56.20 55-57 55-59 49-53 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 64-66 64-68 65-71 Eggs, New York 89.60 74-77 63-67 64-70 Milk, all at plant 13.87 13.0-13.5 12.7-13.6 13.4-14.5 Milk, M-W 12.67 12.0-12.4 11.9-12.7 12.4-13.5 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 530 530 550 500 Pork exports 175 250 225 200 Pork imports 170 167 158 170 Broiler exports 1,040 900 1,035 1,095 Turkey exports 71 84 92 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996. END-END-END