LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY May 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-29. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Production increases for broilers, turkeys, and eggs are expected to continue in 1997 but at lower rates than in 1996. Low net returns during 1996 are expected to moderate expansion plans for 1997. Producers probably will wait to see how feed crop development goes this summer and fall before committing capital to substantially expand production. Broiler Production Increasing April production increased strongly and was about 6 percent higher on a weekly basis. Two additional slaughter days will boost the monthly number about another 10 percent. Increasing production costs and disruptions in the Chinese and Russian market caused March and April hatches (for slaughter in May and June) to be much nearer last year's level than in earlier months. Hatch during March was up between 1 and 2 percent while indications are that April hatch was probably down slightly from last year. Increases in bird weights are expected to keep production higher on a weekly basis during June even if bird numbers are down slightly. Second- quarter production is expected to increase 4-5 percent. Lower net returns during 1996 are expected to slow the rate of production increase in 1997 to about 5 percent. Net returns in the first quarter of 1996 were about 30 percent lower than last year. Feed costs drove up meat production costs about 6 cents per pound and were only partially offset by a 4- to 5-cent wholesale price increase. Returns for 1996 are expected to average near breakeven, after averaging 7-8 cents per pound above breakeven in 1995. Broiler wholesale prices have been above a year ago during the first half of 1996 but are expected to fall below a year ago in the second half. Hot weather last July reduced production from planned levels and drove prices higher than expected. Turkey Production Increasing First-quarter 1996 turkey production increased about 6 percent based on about 5 percent more birds and 1 percent heavier weights. Second-quarter production is not expected to increase as strongly relative to last year because poult placement figures indicate that only about 2 percent more birds will be available. Production for all of 1996 is expected to be about 5 percent larger than in 1995. Lower net returns to producers during 1996 are expected to limit production increases during 1997. Returns during the first quarter were below breakeven and 3-4 cents per pound below last year. Production increases for 1997 are expected to be near 1 percent. Wholesale hen turkey prices have held above a year ago during the first half of 1996, while sales volumes have been quite low. Prices are expected to increase quite slowly from present levels during the second and third quarters, bringing prices below a year ago starting in August. Average annual prices for 1996 are expected to be nearly unchanged from 1995. The expected slower production increase in 1997 will likely produce a more normal price pattern with lower prices early in the year and more strength in the fourth quarter. For the year prices again are expected to be close to those in 1995. Egg Production Increasing Table egg production was 1-2 percent larger than last year in the first quarter of 1996. Production during the second quarter is expected to increase about 2 percent, primarily because of a larger flock. The age of the flock will limit productivity increases. For the year production is expected to be about 2 percent larger than in 1995. Average net returns near breakeven are expected for 1996 after strong returns in the first quarter. The lower net returns for 1996 are expected to limit production increases in 1997 to less than 1 percent. Broiler Exports Continue Strong Despite lower exports to Hong Kong and the effects of a trade dispute with Russia, broiler exports in the first quarter of 1996 totaled 1.1 billion pounds, up 23 percent from a year earlier. Total broiler exports for 1996 are forecast at 4.2 billion pounds. This forecast is based on no further disruptions of exports to Russia and expected higher exports to Mexico, Canada, and China. Much of the increase in first-quarter exports came in February with record exports to Russia. Russian imports of U.S. broiler parts soared to 262 million pounds as shippers rushed to get poultry into the country before an impending shutdown of poultry imports due to a trade dispute over several health issues. Higher exports to Canada, Mexico, and Poland also contributed to a record monthly export of 426 million pounds. Mexican imports of broiler products are expected to rise strongly in 1996 as Mexico's economy continues to rebound. Turkey Exports Exhibit Strong Growth Higher exports of turkey to Russia, Poland, and Mexico pushed first-quarter 1996 shipments to 96 million pounds, 62 percent above the previous year. Most of the growth has come from higher exports of turkey parts or comminuted meat. Year over year increases for the remainder of 1996 are expected to be modest with total turkey exports for 1996 forecast to increase 7 percent. After falling in 1995, shipments to Mexico in 1996 are expected to grow 9 percent to 145 million pounds. Exports to Mexico are expected to increase as its economy grows. Starting in second-quarter 1995, Russia has rapidly emerged as the second largest export market for U.S. turkey products. Most of the imports are lower valued parts or comminuted meat, for sausage production. The rapid growth in poultry exports to Russia stems from falling domestic production and poultry's position as a low cost protein source. Egg Exports Climb Unexpectedly strong egg exports totaled 59 million dozen in first-quarter 1996, 30 percent higher than in 1995. The growth was in shell eggs, primarily table eggs, as well as egg products. The increase in shell eggs exports went primarily to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which accounted for 15 percent of all first-quarter 1996 shell egg exports, 30 percent more than in 1995. The larger shipments to the UAE may reflect lower export subsidies to EU producers. Total first-quarter egg exports to Mexico were 12 million dozen, up 76 percent from 1995. Exports to Mexico are now expected to reach 37 million dozen in 1996, 60 percent higher than in 1995. Most of the growth in U.S. egg exports to Mexico is expected to come from egg products. Record Grain Prices Forcing Adjustments Because of record grain prices fewer cattle are being placed on feed, a trend that is likely to continue until 1996/97 grain prospects are more certain. Lower placements and reduced cow slaughter, if grazing prospects continue to improve, are expected to hold beef production near to below a year-earlier through late winter 1997. In addition, reduced beef imports and continued strong exports will cause per capita beef supplies in 1996 to fall below 1995 levels and increase only marginally in 1997. Stronger cattle and meat prices, plus at least some reduction in grain prices, will support feeder cattle prices. If grain stocks are rebuilt to more comfortable levels in 1997, feeder cattle prices should resume their premium to fed cattle prices in second-half 1997. Record high grain prices are forcing stocker-feeder cattle prices down, causing cattle to remain on pasture longer as producers attempt to sell heavier animals and to reduce the amount of grain necessary for each 100 pounds of beef sold out of feedlots. Although fed cattle weights are averaging above a year earlier, the heavier weights are a function of heavier weight cattle being placed on feed, not the use of more grain. Higher quality beef for domestic hotel-restaurant and export sales continues to command the strongest prices. However, higher quality beef typically requires more days on feed. Although the amount of grain fed per animal may be little changed from a year ago, the heavier placement weights and very favorable weight gains are causing more beef to be sold per pound of feed fed. Production Increases Slowing Beef production for 1996 is estimated at a little over 1 percent above last year, with second-half production revised down as feedlot placements slow. Production this spring is expected to rise 1 to 2 percent from a year earlier as slaughter levels and weights increase. Steer and heifer slaughter this summer and fall are expected to move below a year earlier, but slaughter weights will remain heavy. Cow slaughter will continue above a year ago until fall as feeder cattle prices remain under pressure. Beef production this summer is likely to rise less than seasonally, falling about 2 percent below the very large 1995 level, but still up 2 percent from 1994. Fall production may be little changed from a year earlier, particularly with beef cow slaughter holding near a year earlier. Production in 1997 is expected to rise about 2 percent from this year, with most of the year-to-year increases occurring in the second half as grain stocks reach more comfortable levels. First-quarter production may decline about 3 percent from the very large levels in 1996. Most of the decline will result from lower fed cattle slaughter, although cow slaughter should moderate. Slaughter weights will remain near record levels as heavy placement weights continue. Season Price Lows Likely Set Fed cattle prices declined from the mid-$60's per cwt last fall to the mid- $50's in late April-early May before rising to the low $60's in mid-May. The lag in retail prices is likely to continue through much of spring as large quantities of beef have been purchased to be featured through Memorial Day and early summer. Retail prices for Choice beef averaged $2.85 a pound for much of second-half 1995, but declined to $2.79 in first-quarter 1996 and likely will average near $2.75 a pound this spring. Fed cattle prices may remain in the low $60's per cwt through late summer as supplies remain relatively large. Prices are expected to move into the mid- $60's this fall as supplies begin to tighten. For the year, fed cattle prices are likely to average about $3 per cwt below last year's $66.24. Prices are likely to be strongest next winter when they are projected to average in the upper $60's, and at times move into the low $70's in late winter early spring. For the year, prices may average near the $66 of 1995. U.S. To Remain Net Beef Exporter U.S. beef imports in the first quarter were down 11 percent from a year earlier, as large U.S. supplies and low prices made the domestic market less attractive. Imports were down fairly sharply from both New Zealand and Australia. Canadian exports to the U.S. were up about 29 percent. For the year imports are likely to fall about 1 percent from a year earlier and remain well below those of 1990-94. Imports in 1997 will likely be little changed as domestic supplies of lower quality fed beef continue to augment domestic processing beef supplies. Beef exports, particularly to Asia, remained strong through March, up 28 percent from a year earlier. Japan remains the major U.S. market for high quality fed beef, taking 29 percent more than a year earlier. Exports to the Republic of Korea were down about 7 percent from a year earlier, but lower U.S. prices are likely to encourage increased Korean purchases. The largest increases over a year earlier were exports to Mexico, up 57 percent. In addition to larger beef imports, Mexico is importing more cattle from the U.S. for slaughter. Sharply reduced feeder and slaughter cattle exports from Mexico to the U.S. suggest continued strength in the Mexican cattle- beef sector and at least a shift toward a more positive market for the U.S. cattle sector. Beef exports to Canada remain strong, up 8 percent from a year earlier. Total beef exports to all countries in 1996 are expected to rise about 16 percent from a year earlier, due to large U.S. supplies and very attractive prices. The U.S. and Canada remain the only major source for large supplies of high quality fed beef. Although feed grain is expensive in the U.S., ration costs are prohibitively more expensive in other countries trying to compete in the high quality beef export market. U.S. export growth in 1997 is likely to slow as tighter beef supplies generate higher prices, particularly given the torrid pace of export expansion over the past several years. Pork Production To Rise Pork production in 1997 is projected to increase about 3 percent from 1996, compared with an expected slight rise in 1996. Higher hog prices in first- half 1996 are more than offsetting the sharp increase in feed costs, especially for the lower cost producers. Producers are expected to have about the same number of sows farrow during June 1996-May 1997 as a year earlier. High cost producers with less feed efficiency continue to cut back or exit the industry, likely choosing to sell their corn on the cash market. On the other hand, large, capital intensive, low cost producers with higher feed efficiency continue to expand. Pigs per litter are expected to rise about 2 percent, reflecting the higher proportion of lower cost producers with higher litter rates. Although foreign demand is expected to remain strong, the higher production will likely lower hog prices in 1997 against relatively strong prices this year. Prices are expected to average in the high $40's per cwt, compared to around $50 in 1996. Most of the price decline is expected in the second half when production is projected to show the highest year-over- year increases. Hog prices are currently about $20 per cwt above January, reflecting 3- percent lower production, continuing strong foreign demand, and a boost from fast food sales. Pork, especially bacon, has been featured in a number of fast food products so far this year. As a result, belly prices are currently near $80 per cwt, compared with $52 in January and $32 a year ago. Belly stocks in cold storage are the lowest since 1987. Net Pork Exports To Increase Based on February 1996 trade data, USDA forecasts a 437-million pound pork trade surplus in 1997. Export trends suggest that 1997 pork shipments could exceed a billion pounds, propelled by shipments to Japan, Mexico, Korea, and Hong Kong. Increased demand for U.S. exports of both fresh and frozen pork derives from higher consumer incomes and trade liberalization. U.S. pork imports probably will continue their downward trend in 1997. Current forecasts show 1997 imports at slightly more than 600 million pounds, down 2 percent from 1996 estimates. Import reductions derive primarily from lower purchases from Canada. The U.S. is expected to be a large net importer of live hogs in 1997 with imports of over 3 million hogs, primarily from Canada. This projection, based on February trade data, reflects an 8-percent increase over the 1996 import estimate. The U.S. is expected to export almost 117,000 head in 1997, 11 percent below expected 1996 exports. Mexico will remain the primary market for U.S. live hog exports in 1997. International Dairy Markets Soften Strong milk production in the last stages of New Zealands and Australias milk production season, weaker domestic use in the EU, and a stronger U.S. dollar have weakened international dairy prices. The possibility of further price declines has caused importers to delay purchases to the extent they can. Lack of buyer interest significantly slowed new contracts under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). International butter prices during the next few months are expected to hold near the current $1,800 per metric ton or to slip slightly, depending in part on whether the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. Once the current extra supplies clear, prices are projected to rise seasonally in late 1996. However, seasonal increases may be fairly modest, particularly if EU intervention stocks continue to build. International prices of nonfat dry milk are in much the same spot as butter prices. However, import demand from Mexico and Algeria remains erratic and uncertain. Demand weakness may generate further declines from the current $1,950 per ton, and seasonal rises probably will trail those for butter. Business under the DEIP has been slow this spring. April-May contracts for dry milk were fairly small and tended to have delivery periods that extended into late summer or autumn. Contracting under DEIP probably will not be very active until importers become convinced that international powder prices have hit bottom. In addition, recent strength in domestic powder prices may make it difficult to secure U.S. supply commitments, even though stocks are relatively large. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Broilers, Turkeys, Eggs), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Steve Reed (Hogs, Sheep, Red Meat Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle, Red Meat Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy, Dairy Trade), LaVerne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,328 8,304 8,152 8,286 Net placements 1,342 1,389 1,610 1,085 Marketings 1,437 1,541 1,476 1,613 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 561,304 566,333 573,793 560,715 Chicks hatched (000)/2 664,150 646,085 689,719 660,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,376 50,847 51,708 50,440 Pullets placed (000) 6,319 5,916 6,374 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,776 5,118 5,930 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 36,890 36,668 36,182 39,196 Poults placed (000) 26,711 27,549 27,949 29,693 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 437 421 460 445 Table egg layers, (000)/1 243,972 245,714 245,410 245,474 Table eggs/100 layers/1 73.6 70.1 71.8 73.2 Chicks hatched (000) 35,020 34,652 37,687 35,500 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9,613 8,231 7,524 9,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 66.53 64.12 65.20 59.95 Selling price 64.27 61.77 59.85 59.70 Net margin -2.26 -2.35 -5.35 -0.25 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 37.53 40.76 42.30 43.14 Selling price 37.42 49.07 51.30 58.50 Net margin -0.11 8.31 9.00 15.36 Broiler Wholesale cost 48.11 54.41 54.80 55.34 Wholesale price 52.94 54.31 56.01 61.00 Net margin 4.83 -0.10 1.21 5.66 Turkey Wholesale cost 59.47 69.17 70.51 71.09 Wholesale price 61.05 64.26 64.37 65.50 Net margin 1.58 -4.91 -6.14 -5.59 Egg Wholesale cost 66.13 76.68 77.78 82.51 Wholesale price 61.73 94.91 89.63 78.00 Net margin -4.40 18.23 11.85 -4.51 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 64.27 61.77 59.85 59.70 Nebraska Direct 63.72 62.52 59.49 59.65 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 40.17 37.06 34.44 33.50 Utility boning 36.94 32.56 29.58 28.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 78.28 62.25 59.30 59.15 600-650 lb. 72.13 58.66 56.90 57.00 750-800 lb. 64.83 55.78 53.10 54.40 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 71.69 52.53 49.33 49.00 700-750 lb. 61.90 52.03 49.08 50.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 37.16 48.76 50.47 57.50 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 37.42 49.07 51.30 58.50 Sows 6 Markets 29.62 36.59 37.86 41.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 31.66 44.75 38.19 34.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 77.20 83.60 83.10 88.00 Ewes, Good 32.65 41.18 35.10 29.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 84.95 96.06 98.80 93.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.55 3.92 4.47 4.85 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.22 5.53 6.50 7.00 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 159.10 226.57 249.33 245.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 95.30 89.10 94.50 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 91.60 83.40 90.30 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 104.21 96.36 96.01 97.00 Choice 1-3 700-850# 104.59 95.60 95.42 96.85 Select 1-3 700-850# 95.04 93.95 92.86 91.65 Cutter Cow 70.86 59.86 56.95 59.75 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 89.68 79.91 74.21 82.00 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 87.95 83.19 80.25 86.00 Hide & offal value 9.18 8.01 8.23 8.50 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 160.35 167.44 169.97 164.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 54.14 67.18 67.49 77.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 103.50 120.49 119.70 134.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 31.70 64.50 69.89 79.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 41.82 59.08 55.95 65.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 31.47 44.54 46.63 61.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 167.68 176.25 176.25 179.00 55-65 lb., Choice 167.68 176.25 176.25 179.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 52.94 54.31 56.01 61.00 Georgia dock 51.61 54.07 54.90 59.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 179.10 159.64 164.68 195.00 Breast, Ribs on 88.04 80.39 82.69 105.00 Legs, whole 49.61 50.15 50.82 53.00 Leg quarters 30.49 32.59 34.38 38.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 62.14 65.00 65.63 67.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 60.57 65.07 64.81 65.00 Drumsticks 19.58 26.46 27.55 25.00 Wings, full cut 24.47 33.13 35.49 35.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 61.73 94.91 89.63 78.00 New York 59.45 91.79 85.59 76.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 283.7 278.8 275.8 279.3 Beef - All Fresh 260.1 257.6 256.3 256.7 Ground Beef 136.5 140.3 137.5 135.4 Rib roast 493.7 504.0 505.0 485.1 T-bone steak 586.6 556.1 566.1 584.0 Pork 190.6 208.2 209.7 208.6 Bacon 189.0 220.3 220.2 224.2 Chops 318.4 326.8 331.7 333.8 Picnic 112.4 117.5 119.3 119.9 Chicken - Composite 143.7 149.3 144.2 146.4 Whole, fresh 91.1 94.0 93.3 94.7 Breast - bone in 199.4 202.8 191.4 197.6 Leg quarter 115.2 123.2 121.7 121.2 Turkey; whole frozen 100.7 104.7 106.9 101.4 Eggs, Grade A, Large 83.3 109.1 113.8 108.6 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 151.9 154.9 155.7 156.3 All food 148.4 150.8 151.6 152.3 All meat 134.9 137.5 137.6 136.9 Beef & veal 136.2 134.8 134.4 133.9 Pork 131.1 140.0 140.7 139.5 Poultry 142.3 149.4 148.0 147.6 Dairy Products 132.1 137.2 136.7 137.0 Fluid milk & cream 131.9 137.3 137.4 137.4 Manufactured products 132.8 137.7 136.7 137.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 19.1 21.1 18.4 23.4 Wholesale to retail 125.2 126.6 127.4 131.4 Farmers share (%) 49.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 33.4 31.6 30.6 30.8 Wholesale to retail 100.6 102.5 101.4 97.5 Farmers share (%) 30.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 85.3 87.9 85.0 85.8 Retail to consumer Turkey 32.1 30.7 33.6 28.0 Eggs 12.4 20.9 19.9 20.0 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - May-95 May-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 9,928 10,739 2,034 2,152 2,285 Veal 126 145 30 28 27 Pork 7,417 7,274 1,421 1,490 1,396 Lamb 128 124 27 28 22 Total red meat 17,599 18,282 3,512 3,698 3,730 Broilers 10,271 11,132 2,152 2,250 2,275 Other chicken 215 216 43 45 42 Turkeys 2,011 2,166 421 440 460 Total poultry 12,498 13,515 2,617 2,735 2,777 Total meat & poultry 30,097 31,797 6,129 6,433 6,507 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 14,215 15,384 2,902 3,112 3,304 Steers 7,322 7,687 1,433 1,589 1,687 Heifers 4,096 4,505 879 879 952 Beef Cows 1,287 1,577 287 329 324 Dairy Cows 1,235 1,333 249 253 278 Bulls and stags 275 285 54 62 63 Calves 566 691 145 132 128 Sheep 2,040 1,864 414 389 334 Hogs 39,965 39,239 7,699 8,048 7,540 Barrows & gilts 38,053 37,356 7,336 7,647 7,148 Sows 1,526 1,578 303 334 332 Broilers 3,037,882 3,178,903 616,703 640,000 660,000 Turkeys 107,256 113,351 22,474 22,500 24,000 May-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 703 707 708 698 698 Calves 228 212 212 221 221 Sheep 64 66 67 67 62 Hogs 187 186 185 186 186 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 392.2 367.9 362.6 347.3 340.1 Pork 422.3 382.2 385.5 352.9 381.3 Bellies 78.5 46.5 46.4 47.7 57.1 Hams 57.8 59.5 54.9 35.7 59.9 Total chicken 520.3 668.5 668.2 699.9 689.0 Turkey 466.2 339.2 423.1 445.4 512.6 Frozen eggs 17.3 15.6 16.2 12.4 11.8 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Feb-96 Mar-96 Jan - Jan - Mar-95 Mar-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 24,413 38,590 183,719 114,518 New Zealand 51,538 57,532 170,316 149,517 Canada 44,008 45,609 105,479 135,672 Brazil 4,471 8,014 10,498 18,278 Argentina 9,718 14,944 43,437 41,129 Central America 12,516 11,038 52,502 36,152 Other 3,511 4,879 6,069 12,276 Total 150,175 180,607 572,019 507,543 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 94,516 90,923 205,701 266,018 Canada 21,735 24,034 66,207 71,631 Mexico 10,160 9,560 19,181 30,053 Korea, Rep. 13,641 13,105 50,224 46,818 Caribbean 941 1,229 3,356 3,027 Other 13,898 10,365 22,838 34,924 Total 154,891 149,215 367,506 452,470 Cattle Imports Mexico 50,438 58,555 606,625 159,001 Canada 182,168 149,868 262,068 446,614 Over 700 lbs. 156,126 127,688 245,598 387,116 500-700 lbs. 22,070 16,459 1,778 45,720 Total 232,628 208,423 868,694 605,648 Cattle Exports Mexico 4,522 4,656 3,619 12,632 Canada 2,573 2,993 22,022 8,786 Total 9,222 7,852 26,597 33,906 Lamb Imports Australia 2,079 3,154 4,984 7,478 New Zealand 1,779 2,627 4,966 5,609 Total 4,020 5,820 10,010 13,289 Mutton Imports 1,629 2,182 6,156 5,332 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 5/01/95 5/12/96 % Chg Canada 118,204 163,470 3635.1% TRQ Countries 326,933 328,229 -1743.8% Australia 175,481 129,909 -2851.7% New Zealand 151,449 155,543 -601.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Feb-96 Mar-96 Jan - Jan - Mar-95 Mar-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 30,734 35,711 117,081 100,473 Denmark 10,023 11,081 38,818 29,547 Poland 1,075 1,225 3,854 2,550 Hungary 358 958 2,333 1,621 Netherlands 741 881 2,504 2,453 Other 2,527 2,830 8,444 7,180 Total 45,458 52,686 173,034 143,823 Pork Exports Japan 36,008 49,957 66,276 113,443 Canada 8,513 8,660 10,913 24,552 Mexico 5,577 3,684 17,393 15,173 Caribbean 994 937 1,954 2,403 Other 26,734 15,222 90,449 65,907 Total 77,826 78,460 186,984 221,479 Hog Imports Head Canada 199,278 211,432 315,874 630,164 Under 110 lb 69,291 70,750 142,454 190,832 Total 199,363 211,432 316,360 630,315 Hog Exports Total 10,629 4,794 2,915 29,193 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 13,523 20,309 53,828 54,375 Mexico 17,921 17,337 46,387 52,385 Hong Kong 59,924 108,446 227,881 213,101 Singapore 3,699 4,821 11,816 13,159 Canada 6,344 6,593 13,201 18,234 Former USSR 261,707 73,855 323,197 465,937 Total 425,537 339,766 873,147 1,074,553 Turkey Exports Mexico 11,684 12,888 31,640 36,261 S. Korea 1,933 2,588 6,641 5,952 Hong Kong 447 781 3,308 2,322 Total 27,444 40,440 59,074 95,841 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 10,542 9,939 23,873 29,553 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,501 10,719 11,671 11,489 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,058 8,010 7,998 7,991 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,427 1,338 1,459 1,438 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,343 12,454 13,560 13,330 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.30 13.80 13.70 13.60 Milk for fluid use 12.30 13.90 13.70 13.70 Manuf. grade milk 11.20 12.60 12.60 12.80 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.16 12.59 12.70 13.09 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 66.5 66.4 65.5 69.0 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 122.8 139.3 140.9 145.1 Barrels 134.0 135.2 139.8 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 107.6 110.8 110.1 110.3 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,000 2,113 2,063 2,047 Nonfat dry milk 2,129 2,138 2,074 2,006 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 23.4 22.1 30.2 47.5 Commercial American cheese 323.1 323.1 343.0 345.6 Other cheese 135.3 118.1 123.3 130.2 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 97.5 71.7 80.0 98.4 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,787 4,493 4,910 5,387 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,964 5,351 5,716 6,046 All Government (mf. basis) 1,166 80 82 34 All Government (ss. basis) 341 165 122 115 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 45.3 5.4 32.4 10.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 296.1 6.5 17.8 13.1 All products (ss basis 2/) 567.0 68.5 389.3 134.7 Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 127.3 125.4 118.1 113.1 American cheese 269.5 275.4 270.8 292.6 Other-than-American cheese 331.7 312.6 316.6 347.3 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 109.5 77.7 85.7 98.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 8657.2 7949.3 7918.3 8374.0 Nonfat dry milk 118.7 98.9 93.0 110.0 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 117.3 120.7 110.2 95.7 American cheese 268.7 259.3 251.2 291.0 Other-than-American cheese 348.3 312.3 327.9 360.6 Nonfat dry milk 68.7 94.1 79.3 61.0 All products (mf. basis) 13353.0 12769.0 12075.0 13143.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 230.7 160.3 158.8 193.5 Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,740 6,862 7,033 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 4.8 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,835 25,575 Pork 17,658 17,812 17,864 18,350 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,507 27,900 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,391 5,450 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,071 76,223 78,610 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,359 5,375 Milk 153,626 155,643 156,825 158,300 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 157,011 158,600 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 425 700 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 68.0 66.2 Pork 53.1 52.4 51.4 52.2 Broilers 69.8 69.7 73.1 75.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.5 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 213.4 217.2 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.2 235.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 62-65 63-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 58-60 61-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.58 39-40 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 49-51 46-50 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 56-59 52-57 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 65-68 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 73-76 71-76 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 13.8-14.3 12.8-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 12.7-13.2 11.9-12.8 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 2,120 2,200 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,110 2,025 Pork exports 531 770 912 965 Pork imports 743 664 620 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,250 4,555 Turkey exports 281 348 373 400 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,702 6,709 6,763 6,784 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,617 18,555 18,906 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,806 6,841 6,881 6,922 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,310 6,425 6,700 6,400 Pork 4,389 4,350 4,400 4,725 Broilers 6,607 6,650 6,600 6,650 Turkeys 1,266 1,325 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,839 18,992 19,120 19,272 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,125 40,500 38,800 38,400 Commercial use 38,111 40,100 39,500 39,300 Net removals 25 100 200 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.0 17.6 16.5 Pork 12.5 12.4 12.8 13.7 Broilers 18.0 18.5 18.4 18.2 Turkeys 3.8 3.8 4.5 6.4 Total Meat 52.1 52.4 53.6 55.3 Eggs, number 59.0 58.5 59.1 60.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 61-63 60-64 62-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 55-57 57-61 60-64 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30-30 33-35 60-64 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 52-54 51-55 44-48 Broiler,12 City 56.20 57-59 57-61 51-55 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 64-66 64-68 65-71 Eggs, New York 89.60 74-76 63-67 64-70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 13.9-14.2 14.0-14.6 13.4-14.3 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.2-13.5 12.9-13.5 12.2-13.0 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 530 530 550 500 Pork exports 218 250 230 214 Pork imports 148 157 148 167 Broiler exports 1,040 1,020 1,050 1,140 Turkey exports 77 84 92 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,968 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 4.8 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,100 Pork 4,475 Broilers 6,850 Turkeys 1,250 Total Meat 18,936 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 39,000 Commercial use 38,700 Net removals 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.0 Pork 12.6 Broilers 18.6 Turkeys 3.9 Total Meat 52.2 Eggs, number 57.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58-62 Brk Cows,S. Falls 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46-50 Broiler,12 City 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 Eggs, New York 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.9-14.0 Milk, M-W 11.9-12.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 500 Pork exports 242 Pork imports 154 Broiler exports 1,150 Turkey exports 84 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 END-END-END